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Articles 91 - 113 of 113

Full-Text Articles in Applied Statistics

Analysis Of Discrete Choice Probit Models With Structured Correlation Matrices, Bhaskara Ravi Jan 2012

Analysis Of Discrete Choice Probit Models With Structured Correlation Matrices, Bhaskara Ravi

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Discrete choice models are very popular in Economics and the conditional logit model is the most widely used model to analyze consumer choice behavior, which was introduced in a seminal paper by McFadden (1974). This model is based on the assumption that the unobserved factors, which determine the consumer choices, are independent and follow a Gumbel distribution, widely known as the Independence of irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) assumption. Alternate models that relax IIA assumption are the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models, which allow dependency between unobserved factors. However, GEV models do not incorporate all dependency patterns, other choice behaviors such as …


Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi Dec 2011

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …


Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba Dec 2011

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …


Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan Dec 2011

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …


Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda Dec 2011

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …


Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari Dec 2011

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …


Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola Dec 2011

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …


Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi Dec 2011

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.


Empirical Methods For Predicting Student Retention- A Summary From The Literature, Matt Bogard May 2011

Empirical Methods For Predicting Student Retention- A Summary From The Literature, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

The vast majority of the literature related to the empirical estimation of retention models includes a discussion of the theoretical retention framework established by Bean, Braxton, Tinto, Pascarella, Terenzini and others (see Bean, 1980; Bean, 2000; Braxton, 2000; Braxton et al, 2004; Chapman and Pascarella, 1983; Pascarell and Ternzini, 1978; St. John and Cabrera, 2000; Tinto, 1975) This body of research provides a starting point for the consideration of which explanatory variables to include in any model specification, as well as identifying possible data sources. The literature separates itself into two major camps including research related to the hypothesis testing …


Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard May 2011

Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

This presentation was part of a staff workshop focused on empirical methods and applied research. This includes a basic overview of regression with matrix algebra, maximum likelihood, inference, and model assumptions. Distinctions are made between paradigms related to classical statistical methods and algorithmic approaches. The presentation concludes with a brief discussion of generalization error, data partitioning, decision trees, and neural networks.


Monopoly, Regulation, And Innovation, Matt Bogard Mar 2010

Monopoly, Regulation, And Innovation, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

Recently the Justice department has started investigations into alleged anti-trust violations by Monsanto. This has helped fuel a lot of already hyped discontent with one of the world’s leaders in innovative solutions for sustainable agriculture. This article discusses how the regulatory environment could possibly have contributed to more concentration and power in the biotech industry. Increasing regulation would likely have the opposite effect of creating a level playing field in the agriculture industry. From AgWeb, March 27,2010 http://www.agweb.com/blog/Economic_Sense_190/Monopoly_Regulation__and_Innovation_10771/


Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu Nov 2009

Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact ¯nite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on deviance information criterion …


"G" And "H" Control Charts And Risk Analysis In The Banking Industry, James L. Bossert Dec 2008

"G" And "H" Control Charts And Risk Analysis In The Banking Industry, James L. Bossert

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This research investigates the utilization of a new control chart in the Banking industry to minimize financial risk. There are processes in the banking industry that do not lend themselves to traditional control chart applications. These processes tend to be high volume. High volume meaning over a million transactions a day and a requirement for high levels of accuracy characterize these processes. The research has looked at these processes and applied the "g" control charts to determine if they provide timely feedback to the banking industry. The value of this research will give the banking industry an opportunity to react …


A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams Jul 2007

A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams

Publications and Research

Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected to persist over the forecasting horizon. Since exponential smoothing models emphasize recent behavior, their forecasts may not be appropriate over longer horizons. In this paper, we develop a new model in which the local trend line projected by exponential smoothing converges asymptotically to an assumed future long-run trend line, which might be an extension of a historical long-run trend line. The rapidity of convergence is governed by a parameter. A familiar example is an economic series exhibiting persistent long-run trend with cyclic variation. This …


A Class Of Nonlinear Stochastic Volatility Models, Jun Yu, Zhenlin Yang Jan 2006

A Class Of Nonlinear Stochastic Volatility Models, Jun Yu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a class of nonlinear stochastic volatility models based on the Box-Cox transformation which offers an alternative to the one introduced in Andersen (1994). The proposed class encompasses many parametric stochastic volatility models that have appeared in the literature, including the well known lognormal stochastic volatility model, and has an advantage in the ease with which different specifications on stochastic volatility can be tested. In addition, the functional form of transformation which induces marginal normality of volatility is obtained as a byproduct of this general way of modeling stochastic volatility. The efficient method of moments approach is used …


Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer Nov 2004

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications which are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time varying correlations, heavy-tailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the …


On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu Apr 2004

On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper is concerned with specification for modelling financial leverage effect in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Two alternative specifications co-exist in the literature. One is the Euler approximation to the well known continuous time SV model with leverage effect and the other is the discrete time SV model of Jacquier, Polson and Rossi (2004, Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming). Using a Gaussian nonlinear state space form with uncorrelated measurement and transition errors, I show that it is easy to interpret the leverage effect in the conventional model whereas it is not clear how to obtain the leverage effect …


Deviance Information Criterion For Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models, Andreas Berg, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu Jan 2004

Deviance Information Criterion For Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models, Andreas Berg, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Bayesian methods have been efficient in estimating parameters of stochastic volatility models for analyzing financial time series. Recent advances made it possible to fit stochastic volatility models of increasing complexity, including covariates, leverage effects, jump components, and heavy-tailed distributions. However, a formal model comparison via Bayes factors remains difficult. The main objective of this article is to demonstrate that model selection is more easily performed using the deviance information criterion (DIC). It combines a Bayesian measure of fit with a measure of model complexity. We illustrate the performance of DIC in discriminating between various different stochastic volatility models using simulated …


Mixed Signals: Rational-Choice Theories Of Social Norms And The Pragmatics Of Explanation, W. Bradley Wendel Jan 2002

Mixed Signals: Rational-Choice Theories Of Social Norms And The Pragmatics Of Explanation, W. Bradley Wendel

Cornell Law Faculty Publications

The question of how societies secure cooperation and order in the absence of state enforced sanctions has long vexed law and economics scholars. Recently the concept of social norms--informally enforced rules of behavior--has occupied the attention of a large number of these theorists, who are concerned with understanding why economically rational actors would bother to follow rules whose costs seem to outweigh their benefits. Because of the prestige (or at least trendiness) of law and economics, it seems that now everyone in the legal academy is talking about social norms. This burgeoning scholarship is closely related to a wider concern …


Day Of The Week Effect In The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, 1994-1998, Santhi Arasan Jan 2000

Day Of The Week Effect In The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, 1994-1998, Santhi Arasan

Student Works (2000-2009)

This paper investigates whether the day of the week effect anomaly exists in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) over a period of time from 1994 to 1998 using the Exchange Main Board All-Share Index or the EMAS Index, which incorporates all Main Board Companies. The analysis of the day of the week effect during the study period is further explored in relation to firm size and economic conditions. In relation to firm size, this paper investigates whether the day of the week effect is persistent for both large and small firms by comparing the daily mean returns of the …


Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller Jul 1999

Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller

Publications and Research

Forecasters often make judgmental adjustments to exponential smoothing forecasts to account for the effects of a future planned change. While this approach may produce sound initial forecasts, it can result in diminished accuracy for forecast updates. A proposed technique lets the forecaster include policy change adjustments within an exponential smoothing model. For 20 real data series representing Virginia Medicaid expenses, initial forecasts and forecast updates are developed using the proposed technique and several alternatives, and they are updated through various simulated level shifts. The proposed technique was more accurate than the alternatives in updating forecasts when a shift in level …


Seasonal Adjustment Of Naira Exchange Rate Statistics 1970-1995, O M. Akinuli Aug 1997

Seasonal Adjustment Of Naira Exchange Rate Statistics 1970-1995, O M. Akinuli

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper uses a current statistical approach to examine and adjust the seasonalities in the Naira exchange rate statistics, vis-a-vis the U.S. Dollar and the pound sterling for a period of twenty-five (25) years. Such study is necessary as it helps to understand the behavioural pattern of a trend in an attempt to predict the future. An investigation like this also helps to expose both the short and long run tendencies of a series which may require urgent or new policy measures to be taken sooner than expected. This paper reviews the regimes of exchange rate under the period, the …


The Truncated Cauchy Distribution: Estimation Of Parameters And Application To Stock Returns, Paul G. Staneski Apr 1990

The Truncated Cauchy Distribution: Estimation Of Parameters And Application To Stock Returns, Paul G. Staneski

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

The problem addressed in this dissertation is the existence and estimation of the parameters of a truncated Cauchy distribution. It is known that when a number of distributions with infinite support are truncated to a finite interval that the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter fails to exist with positive probability. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions which give rise to instances of non-existence have been found for the exponential (Deemer and Votaw (1955)), gamma (Broeder (1955), Hegde and Dahiya (1989)), Weibull (Mittal and Dahiya (1989)) and normal distribution (Barndorff-Nielsen (1978), Mittal and Dahiya (1987), Hegde and Dahiya (1989)). …