Applied Statistics Commons^™

An Alternative Class Of Ratio-Regression-Type Estimator Under Two-Phase Sampling Scheme, Muhammad Isah, Zakari Yahaya, Audu Ahmed

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, a new exponential ratio-regression estimator is developed using an auxiliary variable for estimating the finite population mean under a two-phase sampling system. The Bias and Mean Square Error (MSE) of the proposed estimator are derived and compared with some of the estimators in extant literature. Thus, the conditions under which the proposed estimator is better than some existing estimators are provided. Empirically, using four real datasets and simulation study, the proposed estimator performs better than the classical ratio, classical regression, exponential ratio, and exponential regression cum ratio estimator when compared using the criteria of bias, mean square …

Integration Of Blockchain Technology Into Automobiles To Prevent And Study The Causes Of Accidents, John Kim

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automobile collisions occur daily. We now live in an information-driven world, one where technology is quickly evolving. Blockchain technology can change the automotive industry, the safety of the motoring public and its surrounding environment by incorporating this vast array of information. It can place safety and efficiency at the forefront to pedestrians, public establishments, and provide public agencies with pertinent information securely and efficiently. Other industries where Blockchain technology has been effective in are as follows: supply chain management, logistics, and banking. This paper reviews some statistical information regarding automobile collisions, Blockchain technology, Smart Contracts, Smart Cities; assesses the feasibility …

Market Research: How To Keep And Gain Customers, Chris Mccall

Symposium of Student Scholars

Customer-centered market research is essential to the creation and management of successful marketing campaigns. A company that understands their customers will be able to provide those customers with products and services that fit their needs better than the competition, and ultimately increase profits. My research focuses on a database containing customer information for a telecommunications company called Telco. Within this research, I will focus on a number of customer attributes including demographics, services provided, payment methods, contract lengths, monthly charges, and tenure with the company. Considering how these attributes relate to one another will give me a better understanding of …

Application Of Randomness In Finance, Jose Sanchez, Daanial Ahmad, Satyanand Singh

Publications and Research

Brownian Motion which is also considered to be a Wiener process and can be thought of as a random walk. In our project we had briefly discussed the fluctuations of financial indices and related it to Brownian Motion and the modeling of Stock prices.

Cointegration And Statistical Arbitrage Of Precious Metals, Judge Van Horn

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

When talking about financial instruments correlation is often thrown around as a measure of the relation between two securities. An often more useful or tradeable measure is cointegration. Cointegration is the measure of two securities tendency to revert to an average price over time. In other words, cointegration ignores directionality and only cares about the distance between two securities. For a mean reversion strategy such as statistical arbitrage cointegration proves to be a far more reliable statistical measure of mean reversion, and while it is more reliable than correlation it still has its own problems. One thing to consider is …

Analyzing Student Experience On Group Work With The Application Of Different Group Allocation Approaches, An Yee Tan

Management and HR

Working as a group can be as challenging as working by oneself. Common issues like ineffective group work, unequal work contribution, and poor communication are believed to be the reasons why many students preferred to work individually. The purpose of this study is to understand if there is a disparity in student experience on group work by implementing different methods of group formation, which are, intentional group formation and random assignment. Topics around team well-being, team communication, and team effectiveness are the main focus of this study. The second emphasis of this study is students’ opinions on whether or not …

The Effect Of Corporate Governance Mechanisms And Their Interactions On Earnings Quality, Nasrin Azar

Student Works (2020-2029)

Corporate governance (CG) mechanisms play an essential role in improving financial reporting quality, especially earnings quality. Due to corporate failures around the world, there has been a renewed interest in the effect of CG on earnings quality. The primary objectives of this thesis are to (1) investigate the impact of CG characteristics on earnings quality, and (2) examine whether the interactions between CG mechanisms influence earnings quality. Based on the agency and resource dependence theories, this study develops and examines ten main hypotheses (23 sub-hypotheses) to achieve these objectives. This study identifies CG mechanisms such as the board of directors, …

Integrating Affect Perception Tasks From The New York Emotion Battery Into A Comprehensive Measure Of Neuropsychological Change Across The Lifespan, Melinda A. Cornwell

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Background: The ability to perceive others’ emotions is a vital skill for social competency, impacting the success of personal and professional relationships (Brinton & Fujiki, 2011; Cassidy et al., 1992; Côté & Miners, 2006). According to Socioemotional Selectivity Theory (SST; Carstensen, 1991), human motivation develops to become more discerning in choosing milieus that yield the most gratifying return on the investment of personal resources (e.g., time, attention, and effort), perhaps explaining why some research findings indicate that older adults may demonstrate an affect perception (AP) bias described as a positivity effect (Reed et al., 2014). Moreover, AP predicts cognitive and …

Conceptualization And Application Of Deep Learning And Applied Statistics For Flight Plan Recommendation, Nicholas C. Forrest

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Forces Pilot Training Next (PTN) program seeks a more efficient pilot training environment emphasizing the use of virtual reality flight simulators alongside periodic real aircraft experience. The PTN program wants to accelerate the training pace and progress in undergraduate pilot training compared to traditional undergraduate pilot training. Currently, instructor pilots spend excessive time planning and scheduling flights. This research focuses on methods to auto-generate the planning of in-flight events using hybrid filtering and deep learning techniques. The resulting approach captures temporal trends of user-specific and program-wide student performance to recommend a feasible set of graded flight events for …

The Analytics Managers Ultimate Guide For Working With Universities, Robert J. Mcgrath

Faculty Publications

The challenges organizations are having related to finding (and retaining) deep analytical talent did not materialize out of thin air…or overnight. Analytics and Data science – and the role of the analytics professional – has evolved over the last several decades and has been fueled by our ability to capture and process increasingly larger and more complex variations of data and our desire to gain increasingly granular insights to fuel innovation and creativity. While many organizations recognize that a partnership with a university can be a resource to many of these challenges, the best way to start a conversation with …

Quantitative Model For Setting Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price, Peter Byrd, Jonathan Knowles, Dmitry Andreev, Jacob Turner, Brian Mente, Laroux Wallace

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present a quantitative approach to model the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) for children’s doll- houses and establish relationships among key features that contribute most to establishing MSRP. Determination of the MSRP is a critical step in how consumers respond with their wallets when purchasing an item. KidKraft, a global leader in toys and juvenile products, sets MSRP subjectively using product experts. The process is arduous and time consuming requiring the focus of specialized resources and knowledge of the interaction between key attributes and their impact on consumer value. An accurate prediction of MSRP during the …

Three Essays On Health Economics And Policy Evaluation, Shishir Shakya

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation consists of three essays on the U.S. Health care policy. Each paragraph below refers to the three abstracts for the three chapters in this dissertation, respectively. I provide quantitative evidence on how much Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) affects the retail opioid prescribing behaviors. Using the American Community Survey (ACS), I retrieve county-level high dimensional panel data set from 2010 to 2017. I employ three separate identification strategies: difference-in-difference, double selection post-LASSO, and spatial difference-in-difference. I compare how the retail opioid prescribing behaviors of counties, that are mandatory for prescribers to check the PDMP before prescribing controlled substances …

Utilization Of Statistics For Provision Of Business Information: Implementation Of Α-Sutte Indicator On Provision Of Stock Movement Prediction Information, Nuning Kurniasih, Ansari Saleh Ahmar, Nanik Kurniawati

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

The Current information services are dealing with big data that is freely accessible. Companies providing information services and products need to develop creativity and innovation to maintain their existence. In this paper, we offer that information specialist can add value to information. The added value is given through an analysis of information that is relevant to user needs. The Research and Development Method can be used to develop a framework for service information products and services, and bridge the gap between the theories studied in higher education and the needs of the industry. α-Sutte Indicator can be used to predict …

Leveraging Reviews To Improve User Experience, Anthony Schams, Iram Bakhtiar, Cristina Stanley

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we will explore and present a method of finding characteristics of a restaurant using its reviews through machine learning algorithms. We begin by building models to predict the ratings of individual reviews using text and categorical features. This is to examine the efficacy of the algorithms to the task. Both XGBoost and logistic regression will be examined. With these models, our goal is then to identify key phrases in reviews that are correlated with positive and negative experience. Our analysis makes use of review data publicly made available by Yelp. Key bigrams extracted were non-specific to the …

Improving Vix Futures Forecasts Using Machine Learning Methods, James Hosker, Slobodan Djurdjevic, Hieu Nguyen, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

The problem of forecasting market volatility is a difficult task for most fund managers. Volatility forecasts are used for risk management, alpha (risk) trading, and the reduction of trading friction. Improving the forecasts of future market volatility assists fund managers in adding or reducing risk in their portfolios as well as in increasing hedges to protect their portfolios in anticipation of a market sell-off event. Our analysis compares three existing financial models that forecast future market volatility using the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) to six machine/deep learning supervised regression methods. This analysis determines which models provide best …

Ample Provision: A Preliminary Study Relating Budget Composition And High School Graduation Rates In Select Washington State Public School Districts, Gregory P. Gadow

All Undergraduate Projects

How to allocate scarce resources for an optimal outcome is of keen interest to those who set the budgets in public education. Simply throwing money at schools is not enough; it is important that money is spent where it will do the most good. This study considers Washington State public school districts and examines how the share of per-student expenditures in seven budget categories relates to on-time high school graduation rates. It is an investigative study, exploring whether there is enough evidence to merit further, more in-depth research. Using budget and graduation information from academic years 1997-98 through 2016-17 for …

Quantitative Appraisal Of Non-Irrigated Cropland In South Dakota, Shelby Riggs

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

This appraisal attempts to remove subjectivity from the appraisal process and replace it with quantitative analysis of known data to generate a fair market value of the subject property. Two methods of appraisal were used, the income approach and the comparable sales approach. For the income approach, I used the average cash rent for the region, the current property taxes for the subject property, and a capitalization rate based on Stokes' (2018) capitalization rate formula to arrive at my income-based valuation. For the comparable sales approach, I utilized Stokes' (2018) research in optimization modeling to estimate a market value for …

Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm, Yao Yao, Ivelin Angelov, Jack Rasmus-Vorrath, Mooyoung Lee, Daniel W. Engels

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present an analysis of features influencing Yelp's proprietary review filtering algorithm. Classifying or misclassifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended affects average ratings, consumer decisions, and ultimately, business revenue. Our analysis involves systematically sampling and scraping Yelp restaurant reviews. Features are extracted from review metadata and engineered from metrics and scores generated using text classifiers and sentiment analysis. The coefficients of a multivariate logistic regression model were interpreted as quantifications of the relative importance of features in classifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended. The model classified review recommendations with an accuracy of 78%. We found that reviews …

Masked Instability: Within-Sector Financial Risk In The Presence Of Wealth Inequality, Youngna Choi

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We investigate masked financial instability caused by wealth inequality. When an economic sector is decomposed into two subsectors that possess a severe wealth inequality, the sector in entirety can look financially stable while the two subsectors possess extreme financially instabilities of opposite nature, one from excessive equity, the other from lack thereof. The unstable subsector can result in further financial distress and even trigger a financial crisis. The market instability indicator, an early warning system derived from dynamical systems applied to agent-based models, is used to analyze the subsectoral financial instabilities. Detailed mathematical analysis is provided to explain what financial …

Perceptions Of Transactional And Transformational Leaders According To Gender, Quinn I. Igram, Andrew N. Garstka, Lindsay D. Harris

Student Publications

The lack of females occupying leadership positions in the modern workplace has prompted the research of this study. In order to better understand the perceptions that exist regarding successful leadership, this study was conducted with the intention of understanding individual leadership style through the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire, which measures transactional and transformational leadership styles (Bass and Avolio, 1993). 64 male and female participants, made up of 36 students and 28 individuals in the workforce ages 18-61 with an average age of 31 answered 21 questions to assess their leadership style and 1 to measure who they perceived as a successful …

Pricing Asian Options: Volatility Forecasting As A Source Of Downside Risk, Adam T. Diehl

Undergraduate Economic Review

Asian options are a class of derivative securities whose payoffs average movements in the underlying asset as a means of hedging exposure to unexpected market behavior. We find that despite their volatility smoothing properties, the price of an Asian option is sensitive to the choice of volatility model employed to price them from market data. We estimate the errors induced by two common schemes of forecasting volatility and their potential impact upon trading.

Perfect Ratings With Negative Comments: Learning From Contradictory Patient Survey Responses, Andrew S. Gallan, Marina Girju, Roxana Girju

Patient Experience Journal

This research explores why patients give perfect domain scores yet provide negative comments on surveys. In order to explore this phenomenon, vendor-supplied in-patient survey data from eleven different hospitals of a major U.S. health care system were utilized. The dataset included survey scores and comments from 56,900 patients, collected from January 2015 through October 2016. Of the total number of responses, 30,485 (54%) contained at least one comment. For our analysis, we use a two-step approach: a quantitative analysis on the domain scores augmented by a qualitative text analysis of patients’ comments. To focus the research, we start by building …

A Cross-Sectional Exploration Of Household Financial Reactions And Homebuyer Awareness Of Registered Sex Offenders In A Rural, Suburban, And Urban County., John Charles Navarro

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

As stigmatized persons, registered sex offenders betoken instability in communities. Depressed home sale values are associated with the presence of registered sex offenders even though the public is largely unaware of the presence of registered sex offenders. Using a spatial multilevel approach, the current study examines the role registered sex offenders influence sale values of homes sold in 2015 for three U.S. counties (rural, suburban, and urban) located in Illinois and Kentucky within the social disorganization framework. Homebuyers were surveyed to examine whether awareness of local registered sex offenders and the homebuyer’s community type operate as moderators between home selling …

Marketing The Mountain State: A Large N Study Of User Engagement On Twitter, Kirk Richardson

Capstone Projects – Politics and Government

Much of the evolving research on the use of social media in destination marketing emphasizes how information diffusion influences the reputational image of place. The present study uses Twitter data to focus on the relative differences in user engagement across discrete account types. Specifically, this is done to examine how the official destination marketing organization of Montana—the Montana Office of Tourism (MTOT)—performs relative to other account types. Several regression analyses conducted on Twitter data associated with an ongoing MTOT place branding campaign reveal that tweets sent from ‘official’ accounts are more likely to be retweeted, and are estimated to receive …

Statistics-Bierce Library Study, Tyler J. Hushour

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This is a report from two surveys that I created and administered to students and faculty at Bierce library who came to the Circulation Desk or the Tech Desk, as well as some of my other findings when periodically looking around the library to see where students like to study or hang-out. There was a written survey given at the Circulation Desk, and a different survey given at the Tech Check-Out Desk. The project is for Melanie Smith-Farrell, the head of Access Services, and is based on a similar study Ian McCullough did in the science library. While this is …

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …

The Influence Of The Electric Supply Industry On Economic Growth In Less Developed Countries, Edward Richard Bee

Dissertations

This study measures the impact that electrical outages have on manufacturing production in 135 less developed countries using stochastic frontier analysis and data from World Bank’s Investment Climate surveys. Outages of electricity, for firms with and without backup power sources, are the most frequently cited constraint on manufacturing growth in these surveys.

Outages are shown to reduce output below the production frontier by almost five percent in Africa and by a lower percentage in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. Production response to outages is quadratic in form. Outages also increase labor cost, reduce exports …

Newsvendor Models With Monte Carlo Sampling, Ijeoma W. Ekwegh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Newsvendor Models with Monte Carlo Sampling by Ijeoma Winifred Ekwegh The newsvendor model is used in solving inventory problems in which demand is random. In this thesis, we will focus on a method of using Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the order quantity that will either maximizes revenue or minimizes cost given that demand is uncertain. Given data, the Monte Carlo approach will be used in sampling data over scenarios and also estimating the probability density function. A bootstrapping process yields an empirical distribution for the order quantity that will maximize the expected profit. Finally, this method will be used …

Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level Re-Examined: Creating A Uniform Method For Calculating Readability On A Certification Exam, Emily Neuhoff, Kristiana M. Feeser, Kayla Sutherland, Thomas Hovatter

Online Journal for Workforce Education and Development

Abstract

Objective: This study attempted to establish a consistent measurement technique of the readability of a state-wide Certified Nursing Assistant’s (CNA) certification exam. Background: Monitoring the readability level of an exam helps ensure all test versions do not exceed the maximum reading level of the exam, and that knowledge of the subject matter, rather than reading ability, is being assessed. Method: A two part approach was used to specify and evaluate readability. First, two methods (Microsoft Word^® (MSW) software and published readability formulae) were used to calculate Flesch Reading Ease (FRE) and Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level (FKRGL) for multiple …

Comparison Of Option Price From Black-Scholes Model To Actual Values, Matthew J. Krznaric

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

The Black-Scholes model is a widely used method for pricing European-style options in a straightforward way, through the use of calculations and ideal market assumptions. Due to certain unrealistic ideal conditions exercised by the model, The Black-Scholes technique of pricing options may not be entirely accurate in implementation. This paper addresses these problems due to the model limitations, determining how The Black-Scholes method compares to the results when using the actual data. Using a mix of historical S&P500 data and generated normal distributions, we first calculated and graphed option prices through the Black-Scholes formulas. With the help of R, we …