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2025

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Articles 661 - 665 of 665

Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability

Crime Modeling Using An Integrated Cnn–Lstm Architecture With Embedded Self-Excitation, Pawandeep Kaur Jan 2025

Crime Modeling Using An Integrated Cnn–Lstm Architecture With Embedded Self-Excitation, Pawandeep Kaur

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

It is often assumed that natural phenomena occur randomly over time. However, careful analysis reveals that these events typically form some series or sequences and exhibit distinctive temporal patterns. These patterns are not exclusive to nature. They also appear in human activities, often studied under the concept of bursty human dynamics. The statistical methods analyzing bursty human dynamics not only capture overall trends or seasonality but also explore how past events influence future ones. It makes the analysis more realistic and the results more closely aligned with reality. Bursty human dynamics can be studied at two levels: the individual level …

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The Matryoshka Doll Prior – Principled Multiplicity Correction In Bayesian Model Comparison, Andrew Womack, Daniel Taylor-Rodríguez, Claudio Fuentes Jan 2025

The Matryoshka Doll Prior – Principled Multiplicity Correction In Bayesian Model Comparison, Andrew Womack, Daniel Taylor-Rodríguez, Claudio Fuentes

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper introduces a general and principled construction of model space priors with a focus on regression problems. The proposed formulation regards each model as a “local” null hypothesis whose alternatives are the set of models that nest it. Assuming constant ratio of prior probabilities for any “local” null and its alternatives provides a natural isomorphism of model spaces (like a matryoshka doll), constituting an intuitive way to correct for multiplicity in Bayesian model selection and averaging problems. This isomorphism yields the Poisson distribution as the unique limiting distribution over model dimension under mild assumptions. We compare this model space …

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Developing Consensus-Based Methods For The Examination And Interpretation Of Contemporary Vehicle, Architectural, And Portable Electronic Device Glasses By Micro-X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry, Zachary Bailey Andrews Jan 2025

Developing Consensus-Based Methods For The Examination And Interpretation Of Contemporary Vehicle, Architectural, And Portable Electronic Device Glasses By Micro-X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry, Zachary Bailey Andrews

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Glass is a trace material that is commonly encountered during investigations of violent crimes. When glass is recovered at crime scenes, it can be used to establish links between suspects, victims, and the scene itself. The most discriminatory form of analysis for glass evidence is elemental analysis, and micro-X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (µXRF) is becoming an increasingly common technique used for this purpose. Recent advances in µXRF technology, such as the introduction of silicon drift detectors (SDD) and improved polycapillary optics are promising in enhancing the capabilities for the examination of glass evidence in forensic investigations. However, along with these advances …

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Hybrid Mixtures Of Factor Analyzers For High Dimensional Data, Kazeem Abiodun Kareem Jan 2025

Hybrid Mixtures Of Factor Analyzers For High Dimensional Data, Kazeem Abiodun Kareem

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Factor analysis is a powerful tool for modeling latent structures in high-dimensional data, traditional approaches assume a single global structure, limiting their ability to capture heterogeneity. The Mixture of Factor Analyzers (MFA) extends classical factor analysis by modeling data as a mixture of Gaussian-distributed local subspaces, effectively uncovering cluster-specific latent structures. However, MFA relies on Gaussian mixtures, making it sensitive to outliers and ill-suited for heavy-tailed data. The Mixture of $t$-Factor Analyzers (M$t$FA) addresses these limitations by incorporating multivariate $t$-distributions, improving robustness. Despite their advantages, both MFA and M$t$FA face significant computational challenges in high-dimensional settings, particularly due to costly …

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Modeling Neighborhoods As Fuel For Wildfire, Bryce Alan Young Jan 2025

Modeling Neighborhoods As Fuel For Wildfire, Bryce Alan Young

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Wildfire models drive billions of dollars in risk mitigation efforts. However, the modeling community currently lacks a representative fuelscape on which to base simulations of fire spread in the built environment and the wildland-urban interface (WUI) where vegetation and structures act together as fuel for wildfire. This thesis advances wildfire risk modeling by addressing the underdeveloped representation of the built environment in existing frameworks. By identifying inconsistencies in how structure and defensible space features are defined and used across empirical studies, predictive indices, and fire spread models, this research lays the groundwork for standardized modeling approaches and feature selection (Chapter …

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