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2021

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Articles 661 - 662 of 662

Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability

Bayesian Dynamic Network Actor Models With Application To South Korean Covid-19 Patient Movement Data, Antonio Arrizza, Alberto Caimo Jan 2021

Bayesian Dynamic Network Actor Models With Application To South Korean Covid-19 Patient Movement Data, Antonio Arrizza, Alberto Caimo

Articles

Motivated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this article intro- duces Bayesian dynamic network actor models for the analysis of infected individuals’ movements in South Korea during the first three months of 2020. The relational event data modelling framework makes use of network statistics capturing the structure of movement events from and to several country’s municipalities. The fully probabilistic Bayesian approach allows to quantify the uncertainty associated to the relational tendencies explaining where and when movement events are established and where they are directed. The observed patient movements’ patterns at an early stage of the pandemic can provide interesting insights about …


Self-Exciting Point Process For Modelling Terror Attack Data, Siyi Wang Jan 2021

Self-Exciting Point Process For Modelling Terror Attack Data, Siyi Wang

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Terrorism becomes more rampant in recent years because of separatism and extreme nationalism, which brings a serious threat to the national security of many countries in the world. The analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of terror data is significant in containing terrorism. This thesis focuses on building and applying a temporal point process called self-exciting point process to fit the terror data from 1970 to 2018 of 10 countries. The data come from the Global Terrorism database. Further, an application in predicting the number of terror events based on the self-exciting model is another main innovative idea, in which …