Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Sars-Cov-2 Transmission In Alberta, British Columbia, And Ontario, Canada, December 25, 2019, To December 1, 2020, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Yuen Wai Hung, Sylvia Ofori, Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Po-Ying Lai, Gerardo Chowell

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

Objective:

This study aimed to investigate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemiology in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada.

Methods:

Using data through December 1, 2020, we estimated time-varying reproduction number, R t , using EpiEstim package in R, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) across the 3 provinces.

Results:

In Ontario, 76% (92 745/121 745) of cases were in Toronto, Peel, York, Ottawa, and Durham; in Alberta, 82% (49 878/61 169) in Calgary and Edmonton; in British Columbia, 90% (31 142/34 699) in Fraser and Vancouver Coastal. Across 3 provinces, R t dropped to ≤ 1 after April. …

Characterization, Bio-Uptake And Toxicity Of Polymer-Coated Silver Nanoparticles And Their Interaction With Human Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells, Sahar Pourhoseini, Reilly T. Enos, Angela E. Murphy, Bo Cai Ph.D., Jamie Lead

Faculty Publications

Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are widely used in medical applications due to their antibacterial and antiviral properties. Despite the extensive study of AgNPs, their toxicity and their effect on human health is poorly understood, as a result of issues such as poor control of NP properties and lack of proper characterization. The aim of this study was to investigate the combined characterization, bio-uptake, and toxicity of well-characterized polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP)-coated AgNPs in exposure media during exposure time using primary human cells (peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs)). AgNPs were synthesized in-house and characterized using a multimethod approach. Results indicated the transformation of NPs …

Tennis Anyone? Teaching Experimental Design By Designing And Executing A Tennis Ball Experiment, Laura Pyott

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Understanding the abstract principles of statistical experimental design can challenge undergraduate students, especially when learned in a lecture setting. This article presents a concrete and easily replicated example of experimental design principles in action through a hands-on learning activity for students enrolled in an experimental design course. The activity, conducted during five 50-min classes, requires the students to work as a team to design and execute a simple and safe factorial experiment and collect and analyze the data. During three in-class design meetings, the students design and plan all aspects of the experiment, including choosing the response variable and factors, …

A Probabilistic Approach To Identifying Run Scoring Advantage In The Order Of Playing Cricket, Manar D. Samad, Sumen Sen

Computer Science Faculty Research

In the game of cricket, the decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big target for the opponent. However, the opponent may fail to show their natural batting performance in the second innings due to several factors, including deteriorated pitch conditions and excessive pressure of chasing a high target score. The advantage of batting first has been highlighted in the literature and expert opinions. However, the effect of batting and bowling order on match outcome has not been investigated well enough to recommend an …

Relationship Between Diet Quality Scores And The Risk Of Frailty And Mortality In Adults Across A Wide Age Spectrum, Kulapong Jayanama, Olga Theou, Judith Godin, Leah Cahill, Nitin Shivappa Mbbs, Mph, Ph.D., James Hébert, Michael David Wirth Msph, Phd, Yong-Moon Park, Teresa T. Fung, Kenneth Rockwood

Faculty Publications

Background

Beyond intakes of total energy and individual nutrient, eating patterns may influence health, and thereby the risk of adverse outcomes. How different diet measures relate to frailty—a general measure of increased vulnerability to unfavorable health outcomes—and mortality risk, and how this might vary across the life course, is not known. We investigated the associations of five dietary indices (Nutrition Index (NI), the energy-density Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII™), Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015), Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)) with frailty and mortality.

Methods

We included 15,249 participants aged ≥ 20 years from the 2007–2012 cohorts …

An Image Segmentation Technique With Statistical Strategies For Pesticide Efficacy Assessment, Steven B. Kim, Dong Sub Kim, Xiaoming Mo

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Image analysis is a useful technique to evaluate the efficacy of a treatment for weed control. In this study, we address two practical challenges in the image analysis. First, it is challenging to accurately quantify the efficacy of a treatment when an entire experimental unit is not affected by the treatment. Second, RGB codes, which can be used to identify weed growth in the image analysis, may not be stable due to various surrounding factors, human errors, and unknown reasons. To address the former challenge, the technique of image segmentation is considered. To address the latter challenge, the proportion of …

Modeling Dynamic Correlation In Zero-Inflated Bivariate Count Data With Applications To Single-Cell Rna Sequencing Data, Zhen Yang, Yen-Yi Ho

Faculty Publications

Interactions between biological molecules in a cell are tightly coordinated and often highly dynamic. As a result of these varying signaling activities, changes in gene coexpression patterns could often be observed. The advancements in next-generation sequencing technologies bring new statistical challenges for studying these dynamic changes of gene coexpression. In recent years, methods have been developed to examine genomic information from individual cells. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data are count-based, and often exhibit characteristics such as overdispersion and zero inflation. To explore the dynamic dependence structure in scRNA-seq data and other zero-inflated count data, new approaches are needed. In this …

Lag Effects Of Ozone, Pm2.5, And Meteorological Factors On Covid-19 New Cases At The Disease Epicenter In Queens, New York, Atin Adhikari, Jingjing Yin

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

The influences of environmental factors on COVID-19 may not be immediate and could be lagged for days to weeks. This study investigated the choice of lag days for calculating cumulative lag effects of ozone, PM2.5, and five meteorological factors (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and cloud percentages) on COVID-19 new cases at the epicenter of Queens County, New York, before the governor’s executive order on wearing of masks in public places (1 March to 11 April 2020). Daily data for selected air pollutants and meteorological factors were collected from the US EPA Air Quality System, weather observation station …

Stochastic Navier-Stokes Equations With Markov Switching, Po-Han Hsu

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation is devoted to the study of three-dimensional (regularized) stochastic Navier-Stokes equations with Markov switching. A Markov chain is introduced into the noise term to capture the transitions from laminar to turbulent flow, and vice versa. The existence of the weak solution (in the sense of stochastic analysis) is shown by studying the martingale problem posed by it. This together with the pathwise uniqueness yields existence of the unique strong solution (in the sense of stochastic analysis). The existence and uniqueness of a stationary measure is established when the noise terms are additive and autonomous. Certain exit time estimates …

The General Psychopathology Factor (P) From Adolescence To Adulthood: Disentangling The Developmental Trajectories Of P Using A Multi-Method Approach, Alexandria M. Choate

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Considerable attention is directed towards studying co-occurring psychopathology through the lens of a general factor (p-factor). However, the developmental trajectories and stability of the p-factor have yet to be fully understood. Study 1 first examined the explanatory power of dynamic mutualism theory — an alternative framework positing the p-factor to be a product of lower-level symptom interactions rather than the inherent cause of them. Predictions of dynamic mutualism were tested using three distinct statistical approaches including: longitudinal bifactor models, random-intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPMs), and network models. Next, given prior suggestions that borderline personality disorder (BPD) could be a marker …

Generalized Fiducial Inference On The Mean Of Zero-Inflated Poisson And Poisson Hurdle Models, Yixuan Zou, Jan Hannig, Derek S. Young

Statistics Faculty Publications

Zero-inflated and hurdle models are widely applied to count data possessing excess zeros, where they can simultaneously model the process from how the zeros were generated and potentially help mitigate the effects of overdispersion relative to the assumed count distribution. Which model to use depends on how the zeros are generated: zero-inflated models add an additional probability mass on zero, while hurdle models are two-part models comprised of a degenerate distribution for the zeros and a zero-truncated distribution. Developing confidence intervals for such models is challenging since no closed-form function is available to calculate the mean. In this study, generalized …

Validation Of Icd-10-Cm Codes For Injuries Complicating Pregnancy, Childbirth And The Puerperium: A Medical Record Review, Anna Hansen, Dana Quesinberry, Peter Akpunonu, Julia Martin, Svetla Slavova

Kentucky Injury Prevention and Research Center Faculty Publications

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes for injury, poisoning, physical or sexual assault complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium (PCP) to capture injury encounters within both hospital and emergency department claims data.

METHODS: A medical record review was conducted on a sample (n=157) of inpatient and emergency department claims from one Kentucky healthcare system from 2015 to 2017, with any diagnosis in the ICD-10-CM range O9A.2-O9A.4. Study clinicians reviewed medical records for the sampled cases and used an abstraction form to …

Demand Forecasting For Lucky Cement, Muhammad Arsalan Rashid

CBER Conference

As we know that demand is the Quantities of a good or service that people are ready to buy at various prices within some given time, other factors besides price held constant I tried to forecast the sales for next years. I removed seasonality factors and applied other determinants to predict the demand. By using values of independent variables in my Regression, the Annual Sales of Lucky Cement for period 2020-2021 is found to be around 7.9 Million Tons.

Aspirations Incubator: 2017–2023 Interim Evaluation Report, Sarah Goan, Elora Way, Alexa Plotkin

Publications

The Emanuel & Pauline A. Lerner Foundation’s Aspirations Incubator (AI) is a six-year pilot initiative invested in strategic capacity building for six youth development organizations in rural Maine. Grounded in the Trekkers Youth Programming Principles, the Aspirations Incubator invests targeted resources to provide long-term, comprehensive relationship-based programming to youth. This structured yet flexible program model aims to increase resiliency and introduce new opportunities to cohorts of young people starting in 7th grade and continuing through high school graduation. To document the potential impact and effectiveness of this unique model, the Lerner Foundation contracted with the Data Innovation Project to conduct …

Comparing Radiation Shielding Potential Of Liquid Propellants To Water For Application In Space, John Czaplewski

Master's Theses

The radiation environment in space is a threat that engineers and astronauts need to mitigate as exploration into the solar system expands. Passive shielding involves placing as much material between critical components and the radiation environment as possible. However, with mass and size budgets, it is important to select efficient materials to provide shielding. Currently, NASA and other space agencies plan on using water as a shield against radiation since it is already necessary for human missions. Water has been tested thoroughly and has been proven to be effective. Liquid propellants are needed for every mission and also share similar …

An Examination Of Civilian Retention In The United States Air Force, William F. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

The backbone of the United States Air Force is undoubtedly the large civilian workforce that supplements the great work that is accomplished. Many research studies have been conducted on officer and enlisted personnel to ensure that the career fields are properly developed and managed to meet the ever growing demands of the military's varied missions, but no recent studies have focused on the civilian workforce. Striking a balance between new and experienced employees is paramount to success given the ever-changing economic and political landscapes where we find ourselves. The first part of the research uses logistic regression to determine the …

Analysis Of Functional Responses In Experimental Design, Matthew E. Scherer

Theses and Dissertations

The growth of sensor streamed data in recent years increases the demand for an analytical technique to properly address data measured continuously. The design and analysis of experiments (DOE) of U.S. Air Force assets are based off of sensor streamed data. Functional data analysis (FDA) is an approach of analyzing data existing over a continuum. This research aids in filling the intersection of FDA and DOE by examining a case study of an experimental design with a functional response in addition to insight on software capabilities in FDA. The case study considers a functional linear model of a whole-plot from …

The Wargaming Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, William T. Deberry

Theses and Dissertations

This research presents the Wargaming Commodity Course of Action Automated Analysis Method (WCCAAM), a novel approach to assist wargame commanders in developing and analyzing courses of action (COAs) through semi-automation of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP). MDMP is a seven-step iterative method that commanders and mission partners follow to build an operational course of action to achieve strategic objectives. MDMP requires time, resources, and coordination – all competing items the commander weighs to make the optimal decision. WCCAAM receives the MDMP's Mission Analysis phase as input, converts the wargame into a directed graph, processes a multi-commodity flow algorithm on …

Node Classification On Relational Graphs Using Deep-Rgcns, Nagasai Chandra

Master's Theses

Knowledge Graphs are fascinating concepts in machine learning as they can hold usefully structured information in the form of entities and their relations. Despite the valuable applications of such graphs, most knowledge bases remain incomplete. This missing information harms downstream applications such as information retrieval and opens a window for research in statistical relational learning tasks such as node classification and link prediction. This work proposes a deep learning framework based on existing relational convolutional (R-GCN) layers to learn on highly multi-relational data characteristic of realistic knowledge graphs for node property classification tasks. We propose a deep and improved variant, …

Predictive Modeling And Estimation Of The Doubling Time Of Confirmed Cases Of Covid-19 In Niger, Ibrahim Sidi Zakari, Hadiza Galadima

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Modeling is increasingly used to assess scenarios and make projections on the future course of new coronavirus disease. This allows for better planning of care as well as a relaxation or tightening of the restrictive measures decreed by the government and the health authorities. The data analyzed in this study covers the period from March 19 to June 05, 2020 and allowed predictions of new cases of COVID-19 based on a growth model with a growth rate that changes linearly over time. In addition, we calculated and predicted the doubling time of the number of positive cases in each region …

Optimizing Critical Values And Combining Axes For Multi-Axial Neck Injury Criteria, Ethan J. Gaston

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force employs ejection seats in its high-performance aircraft. While these systems are intended to ensure aircrew safety, the ejection process subjects the aircrew to potentially injurious forces. System validation includes evaluation of forces against a standard which is linked to the probability of injury. The Muti-Axial Neck Injury Criteria (MANIC) was developed to account for forces in all six degrees of freedom. Unfortunately, the MANIC is applied to each of the three linear input directions separately and applies different criterion values for each direction. These three separate criteria create a lack of clarity regarding acceptable neck loading, leading …

Analyzing Student Experience On Group Work With The Application Of Different Group Allocation Approaches, An Yee Tan

Management and HR

Working as a group can be as challenging as working by oneself. Common issues like ineffective group work, unequal work contribution, and poor communication are believed to be the reasons why many students preferred to work individually. The purpose of this study is to understand if there is a disparity in student experience on group work by implementing different methods of group formation, which are, intentional group formation and random assignment. Topics around team well-being, team communication, and team effectiveness are the main focus of this study. The second emphasis of this study is students’ opinions on whether or not …

Behavior Of Lightning In Developing Storms, Erick A. Tello

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force weather squadrons issue a warning when lightning activity is observed within 5 nautical miles (NM) of protected areas. Upon receiving this warning, personnel outdoors are expected to pause work and move inside. Studies sponsored by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) have concluded that the 5 NM warning radius can be safely reduced for well-developed storms. This thesis investigates whether radii for storms in early development can also be reduced. Our research develops algorithms to partition lightning sensor data into storms. Next, storms are filtered to their earliest lightning events, and the study calculates distances between successive early …

Continuous-Time Controlled Branching Processes, Ines Garcia, George Yanev, Manuel Molina, Nikolay Yanev, Miguel Velasco

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Controlled branching processes with continuous time are introduced and limiting distributions are obtained in the critical case. An extension of this class as regenerative controlled branching processes with continuous time is proposed and some asymptotic properties are considered.

Clustering Web Users By Mouse Movement To Detect Bots And Botnet Attacks, Justin L. Morgan

Master's Theses

The need for website administrators to efficiently and accurately detect the presence of web bots has shown to be a challenging problem. As the sophistication of modern web bots increases, specifically their ability to more closely mimic the behavior of humans, web bot detection schemes are more quickly becoming obsolete by failing to maintain effectiveness. Though machine learning-based detection schemes have been a successful approach to recent implementations, web bots are able to apply similar machine learning tactics to mimic human users, thus bypassing such detection schemes. This work seeks to address the issue of machine learning based bots bypassing …

Exclusive Breastfeeding History Risk Factor Associated With Stunting Of Children Aged 12–23 Months, Nurhalina Sari, Marlida Yuliza Manjorang, Zakiyah Zakiyah, Madeleine Randell

Kesmas

Stunting (low height-for-age) remains a global and national health problem because it increases the risk of disturbances in growth and development and mortality. Banjar Margo District, Tulang Bawang Regency, has the second-highest prevalence in Lampung Province, Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the association of exclusive breastfeeding history and stunting in children aged 12–23 months in Banjar Margo District. This study used a cross-sectional design on 193 children aged 12–23 months. It was primary data conducted between April and May 2018 with a questionnaire. Data analysis was performed using the chi-square test and multiple logistic regression. The result showed that …

Junk Food Consumption And Symptoms Of Mental Health Problems: A Meta-Analysis For Public Health Awareness, Muhammad Hafizurrachman, Risky Kusuma Hartono

Kesmas

Junk food consumption increases the risk of having symptoms of mental health problems. This study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to assess the association between junk food and symptoms of mental health problems. Six researchers, two primary researchers, and four assistant researchers, from October to December 2020 conducted a systematic literature review. The data sources were selected from Pubmed and Science Direct articles published from 2010 to 2020. Those websites were check-marked for text availability for original articles, using keywords for junk foods and mental health. This study had inclusion criteria for selecting and organizing articles using the Preferred Reporting …

Assessment Of Characteristics And Conditions Before The End Of Lockdown, David San-Martín-Roldán, Francisca Rojo-Lazo, Aracelis Calzadilla-Núñez, Pablo San-Martín-Roldán, Patricia Díaz-Calzadilla, Víctor P. Díaz-Narváez

Kesmas

After months of blockades and restriction, the decision of the best time to end the lockdown after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is the big question for health rectors. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics and conditions for ending the blockade after the first wave of COVID-19. Data on the variables of interest were subjected to linear and non-linear regression studies to determine the curve that best explains the data. The coefficient of determination, the standard deviation of y in x, and the observed curve of the confidence interval were estimated. Regression which was estimated subsequently revealed …

Analysis Of Measles Vaccination Refusal On Social Media (Facebook) Among Anti-Vaccine Communities In Indonesia, Dwi Meilani, Evi Martha, Hadi Pratomo, Indah Jamiatun Hasanah, Somporn Rungreangkulkij

Kesmas

Measles is one of the main causes of global mortality in the under-fives. The existence of groups that reject immunization caused a decrease in immunization coverage. Anti-vaccine messages are widely delivered on social media. Identification of vaccine rejection behavior can be used as the basis to formulate effective program strategies. The design of this study used rapid assessment procedures (RAP). The informants were from two anti-vaccine communities in the Facebook group. In-depth interviews and observations were done for data collection, and data analysis was performed using the Framework Method. The results found that determinants, such as knowledge, beliefs in health …

Parity And Marital Status As Factors Influencing Contraceptive Use Among Adolescents In Indonesia, Anni Fithriyatul Mas'udah, Terry Yr Pristya, Sulistyo Andarmoyo

Kesmas

Adolescent pregnancy has a higher health risk compared to adult pregnancy. One approach to control pregnancy among adolescents is through contraceptive use. The data on contraceptive use has increased in 2018 and is still controversial among adolescents. Thus, it is necessary to determine the factors encou - rag ing the use of contraceptives among adolescents. This study aimed to determine the relation of parity and marital status on contraceptive use among adolescents. This quantitative study used a cross-sectional design. The population of this study was adolescents aged 15–19 years in Indonesia. The total sample of 936 adolescents was selected from …