Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Phenological Model For A Southern Population Of Mountain Pine Beetle, Catherine E. Wangen

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) attacks living Pinus trees across a widespread area of western North America, causing significant ecological and economic damage. The ability to make accurate predictions of how MPB populations across this range will respond to temperatures, which affect MPB progress through life stages, is essential. Northern and southern populations of MPB are genetically different in response to temperature, requiring geographic-specific model parameters. There is not currently a predictive model for the southern MPB life cycle, despite concerns that those populations may be more susceptible to increased numbers of generations per year, which would …

Integrated Machine Learning Approaches To Improve Classification Performance And Feature Extraction Process For Eeg Dataset, Mohammad Masum

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

Epileptic seizure or epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder that occurs due to brain neurons' abnormal activities and has affected approximately 50 million people worldwide. Epilepsy can affect patients’ health and lead to life-threatening emergencies. Early detection of epilepsy is highly effective in avoiding seizures by intervening in treatment. The electroencephalogram (EEG) signal, which contains valuable information of electrical activity in the brain, is a standard neuroimaging tool used by clinicians to monitor and diagnose epilepsy. Visually inspecting the EEG signal is an expensive, tedious, and error-prone practice. Moreover, the result varies with different neurophysiologists for an identical reading. Thus, …

Decompositions Of Total Causal Effect: A Natural Counterfactual Framework Assessing Mediation And Interaction, Xin Gao

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In this work, we developed ten-way decompositions of the total causal effect on continuous outcomes in the presence of two mediators that have mediation and interaction components. We considered a natural counterfactual interaction effect framework that facilitates the decomposition of the total casual effects of the exposure on the outcome attributable to the effects of mediators and their interaction effects with the exposure. We discussed the identification assumptions and provide empirical formulas for estimating the components of the ten-way decompositions. We also developed multiplicative total causal effect decompositions based on risk ratios for binary outcomes, hazard ratios and logarithm survival …

Contributions To The Teaching And Learning Of Fluid Mechanics, Ashwin Vaidya

Department of Mathematics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This issue showcases a compilation of papers on fluid mechanics (FM) education, covering different sub topics of the subject. The success of the first volume [1] prompted us to consider another follow-up special issue on the topic, which has also been very successful in garnering an impressive variety of submissions.

As a classical branch of science, the beauty and complexity of fluid dynamics cannot be overemphasized. This is an extremely well-studied subject which has now become a significant component of several major scientific disciplines ranging from aerospace engineering, astrophysics, atmospheric science (including climate modeling), biological and biomedical science …

The Uncertainty Of Confidence, Michael J. Leach

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This is a free-verse poem about the estimation of population parameters in statistical models. The spacing of words is intended to reflect uncertainty.

Markov Chains For Computer Music Generation, Ilana Shapiro, Mark Huber

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Random generation of music goes back at least to the 1700s with the introduction of Musical Dice Games. More recently, Markov chain models have been used as a way of extracting information from a piece of music and generating new music. We explain this approach and give Python code for using it to first draw out a model of the music and then create new music with that model.

Predictors Of Chronic Opioid Therapy In Medicaid Beneficiaries With Hiv Who Initiated Antiretroviral Therapy, Gyeon Oh, Emily S. Brouwer, Erin L. Abner, David W. Fardo, Patricia R. Freeman, Chris Delcher, Daniela C. Moga

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

The factors associated with chronic opioid therapy (COT) in patients with HIV is understudied. Using Medicaid data (2002-2009), this retrospective cohort study examines COT in beneficiaries with HIV who initiated standard combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART). We used generalized estimating equations on logistic regression models with backward selection to identify significant predictors of COT initiation. COT was initiated among 1014 out of 9615 beneficiaries with HIV (male: 10.4%; female: 10.7%). Those with older age, any malignancy, Hepatitis C infection, back pain, arthritis, neuropathy pain, substance use disorder, polypharmacy, (use of) benzodiazepines, gabapentinoids, antidepressants, and prior opioid therapies were positively associated with …

A Comparison Study Among The High School Students In The Us: Obesity And Overweight Rates Among Racial Minorities—Stress, Dietary Behavior, Sports And Physical Activity Participation, Animesh Dali '24, Naima Shifa

Student Research

Background: The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) collects data on American youth primarily for assessing various health risk factors. This study aims to examine the relationship between demographic, and behavioral variables that we have considered as risk factors and obesity in American youth in 2015 and 2019.

Methods: Data pertaining to obesity risk factors and BMI measurements were obtained from the YRBSS. Cross Tables and linear regression models were constructed and subsequent analyses were used to examine the correlation between risk factors and BMI. Two-sample t-tests were used to explore the difference between the 2015 and 2019 datasets.

Results: …

Treatment Patterns And Outcomes In Elderly Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma: Results From The Connect® Mm Registry, Hans C. Lee, Sikander Ailawadhi, Cristina J. Gasparetto, Sundar Jagannath, Robert M. Rifkin, Brian G.M. Durie, Mohit Narang, Howard R. Terebelo, Kathleen Toomey, James W. Hardin Ph.D., Lynne Wagner, James L. Omel, Mazaher Dhalla, Liang Liu, Prashant Joshi, Rafat Abonour

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Joint Displays For Mixed Methods Research In Psychology, Matthew T. Mccrudden, Gwen Marchand, Paul A. Schutz

Research & Economic Development Faculty Research

Mixed methods researchers use joint displays for integration at different phases of the research process in psychological research. Joint displays are visual displays that are used to integrate quantitative and qualitative data during data collection, analysis, and interpretation. We discuss different mixing purposes and how joint displays may help researchers integrate the quantitative and qualitative strands of a study. We provide examples of joint displays for data collection and for data analysis, including newer innovations. Finally, we discuss considerations, including benefits and challenges, of using joint displays during data collection and analysis.

An Exploratory Assessment Of Callings: The Importance Of Specialization, Christopher Paul Cain, Lisa Nicole Cain, James A. Busser, Hee Jung Kang

Hospitality Faculty Research

Purpose This study sought to understand how having a calling influenced engagement, work–life balance and career satisfaction for Professional Golfers Association of America (PGA) and Golf Course Superintendent of America (GCSA) professionals. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual model was used to examine callings among golf course supervisors and its impact on their engagement, work–life balance and career satisfaction. This study also explored the moderation effect of employees’ generalized or specialized role on the calling–engagement relationship. Surveys were collected from a single golf management company and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used for data analysis. Findings The results revealed significant …

Causal Mediation Analysis With Multiple Time-Varying Mediators, An-Shun Tai, Sheng-Hsuan Lin, Yu-Cheng Chu, Tsung Yu, Milo A. Puhan, Tyler Vanderweele

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In longitudinal studies with time-varying exposures and mediators, the mediational g-formula is an important method for the assessment of direct and indirect effects. However, current methodologies based on the mediational g-formula can deal with only one mediator. This limitation makes these methodologies inapplicable to many scenarios. Hence, we develop a novel methodology by extending the mediational g-formula to cover cases with multiple time-varying mediators. We formulate two variants of our approach that are each suited to a distinct set of assumptions and effect definitions and present nonparametric identification results of each variant. We further show how complex causal mechanisms (whose …

Physical Activity Barriers And Assets In Rural Appalachian Kentucky: A Mixed-Methods Study, Natalie Jones, Deirdre Dlugonski, Rachel Gillespie, Emily M. Dewitt, Joann Lianekhammy, Stacey A. Slone, Kathryn M. Cardarelli

Sports Medicine Research Institute Faculty Publications

Obesity is an increasing public health concern in the U.S. and a contributor to chronic illness, with trends revealing a rise in adult obesity and chronic disease rates among the most vulnerable and disadvantaged populations, including those in rural communities. A mixed-methods approach was used to examine perspectives on perceived physical activity barriers, resources, and level of community support. Researchers utilized the socioecological model to examine the multiple domains that support physical activity in rural Appalachia. The present study focuses on baseline data, including a cohort survey to assess physical activity, health status, and barriers to physical activity, and five …

Multiple Baseline Interrupted Time Series: Describing Changes In New Mexico Medicaid Behavioral Health Home Patients’ Care, Jessica Reno

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In 2016, the CareLink New Mexico behavioral health homes program began enrolling Medicaid recipients with the goal of increasing care coordination, improving access to services, and decreasing long-term costs of care for adults with serious mental illness (SMI) and children with severe emotional disturbance (SED). To evaluate these aims, a retrospective interrupted time series study using Medicaid claims data was designed. First, a comparable subset of non-enrolled individuals was selected from the pool of Medicaid recipients with SMI or SED using propensity score matching. Then, segmented regression was applied to three outcomes: total Medicaid charges, number of outpatient behavioral health …

Investigation And Statistical Modeling Of The Mechanical Properties Of Additively Manufactured Lattices, Derek G. Spear, Anthony N. Palazotto

Faculty Publications

This paper describes the background, test methodology, and experimental results associated with the testing and analysis of quasi-static compression testing of additively manufactured open-cell lattice structures. The study aims to examine the effect of lattice topology, cell size, cell density, and surface thickness on the mechanical properties of lattice structures. Three lattice designs were chosen, the Diamond, I-WP, and Primitive Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces (TPMSs). Uniaxial compression tests were conducted for every combination of the three lattice designs, three cell sizes, three cell densities, and three surface thicknesses. In order to perform an efficient experiment and gain the most information …

Do Different Relevance Attributes Indicate The Same Conservation Priorities? A Case Study In Caves Of Southeastern Brazil, Maysa F.V.R. Souza, Denizar A. Alvarenga, Marconi Souza-Silva, Rodrigo L. Ferreira

International Journal of Speleology

In the last decade, the scientific community brought to the debate gaps that slow down the advance of knowledge regarding global biodiversity. More recently, this discussion has reached subterranean environments, where these gaps are even more dramatic due to the relict and vulnerable nature of their species. In this context, we tested ecological metrics related to some of these gaps, checking if the biological relevance of the caves would change depending on ecological attributes related to each metric. The study was carried out in caves from southeastern Brazil, located in a region presenting a high richness of troglobitic species restricted …

Optimal Transport Driven Bayesian Inversion With Application To Signal Processing, Elijah F. Perez

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This paper will outline a Debiased Sinkhorn Divergence driven Bayesian inversion framework. Conventionally, a Gaussian Driven Bayesian framework is used when performing Bayesian inversion. A major issue with this Gaussian framework is that the Gaussian likelihood, driven by the L2 norm, is not affected by phase shift in a given signal. This issue has been addressed in [1] using a Wasserstein framework. However, the Wasserstein framework still has an issue because it assumes statistical independence when multidimensional signals are analyzed. This assumption of statistical independence cannot always be made when analyzing signals where multiple detectors are recording one event, say …

The Unit Generalized Log Burr Xii Distribution: Properties And Application, Fiaz Ahmad Bhatti, Azeem Ali, Gholamhossein Hamedani, Mustafa Ç. Korkmaz, Munir Ahmad

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

In this paper, a three-parameter bounded unit distribution with a flexible hazard rate called the unit generalized log Burr XII (UGLBXII) distribution is derived. To show the importance of the proposed distribution, we establish some of its mathematical properties such as random number generator, ordinary moments, generalized TL moments, conditional moments, reliability and uncertainty measures. We characterize the UGLBXII distribution via innovative techniques. We also present the bivariate‐ and multivariate‐type distributions via Morgenstern (Mor) family and via Clayton family. Six estimation methods such as the maximum likelihood, maximum product spacings, least squares, weighted least squares, Cramer-von Mises and Anderson-Darling methods …

Be Careful! That Is Probably Bullshit! Review Of Calling Bullshit: The Art Of Skepticism In A Data-Driven World By Carl T. Bergstrom And Jevin D. West, James B. Schreiber

Numeracy

Bergstrom, C. T., & West, J. D. 2021. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. NY: Random House. 336 pp. ISBN 978-0525509189

The authors provide a journey through the numerical bullshit that surrounds our daily lives. Each chapter has multiple examples of specific types of bullshit that each of us experience on any given day. Most importantly, information on how to identify bullshit and refute it are provided so that reader finishes the book with a set of skills to be a more engaged and critical interpreter of information. The writing has a quick and lively …

Clinical Outcomes Of Molecular Tumor Boards: A Systematic Review, Kara L. Larson, Bin Huang, Heidi L. Weiss, Pamela C. Hull, Philip M. Westgate, Rachel W. Miller, Susanne M. Arnold, Jill M. Kolesar

Markey Cancer Center Faculty Publications

PURPOSE: We conducted this systematic review to evaluate the clinical outcomes associated with molecular tumor board (MTB) review in patients with cancer.

METHODS: A systematic search of PubMed was performed to identify studies reporting clinical outcomes in patients with cancer who were reviewed by an MTB. To be included, studies had to report clinical outcomes, including clinical benefit, response, progression-free survival, or overall survival. Two reviewers independently selected studies and assessed quality with the Quality Assessment Tool for Before-After (Pre-Post) Studies with No Control Group or the Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies depending on the type …

Pattern Of Use Of Electronic Health Record (Ehr) Among The Chronically Ill: A Health Information National Trend Survey (Hints) Analysis, Rose Calixte, Sumaiya Islam, Zainab Toteh Osakwe, Argelis Rivera, Marlene Camacho-Rivera

Publications and Research

Effective patient–provider communication is a cornerstone of patient-centered care. Patient portals provide an effective method for secure communication between patients or their proxies and their health care providers. With greater acceptability of patient portals in private practices, patients have a unique opportunity to manage their health care needs. However, studies have shown that less than 50% of patients reported accessing the electronic health record (EHR) in a 12-month period. We used HINTS 5 cycle 1 and cycle 2 to assess disparities among US residents 18 and older with any chronic condition regarding the use of EHR for secure direct messaging …

Cognitive Complaints In Age-Related Chronic Conditions: A Systematic Review, Nikki L. Hill, Sakshi Bhargava, Monique J. Brown, Hyejin Kim, Iris Bhang, Kaitlyn Mullin, Kathleen Phillips, Jacqueline Mogle

Faculty Publications

Introduction

Cognitive complaints in older adults may be indicative of progressive cognitive decline including Alzheimer’s disease (AD), but also occur in other age-related chronic conditions, complicating identification of early AD symptoms. To better understand cognitive complaints in aging, we systematically reviewed the evidence to determine their prevalence and characterization among older adults with the most common age-related chronic conditions.

Methods

This systematic review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement and the review protocol was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (ID: CRD42020153147). Searches were conducted in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and …

Association Of Chronic Pain With Participation In Motor Skill Activities In Children With Cerebral Palsy, Haresh Rochani, Christopher M. Modlesky, Barbara Weissman, Joshua Vova, Gavin T. Colquitt

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

Many children with cerebral palsy (CP) experience the secondary condition of pain, which is problematic because children with CP face barriers to participation in motor skill activities.^1,2 Motor performance in activities of daily living among children with CP is markedly lower than that among their age-matched peers.³ Because of the potential effect of pain on children with CP, we sought to examine the association between pain and activities requiring motor skill performance (ie, difficulty dressing or bathing and participation in sport) among a nationally representative sample of US children with CP.

A Kinetic Model For Blood Biomarker Levels After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury, Sima Azizi, Daniel B. Hier, Blaine Allen, Tayo Obafemi-Ajayi, Gayla R. Olbricht, Matthew S. Thimgan, Donald C. Wunsch

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) imposes a significant economic and social burden. The diagnosis and prognosis of mild TBI, also called concussion, is challenging. Concussions are common among contact sport athletes. After a blow to the head, it is often difficult to determine who has had a concussion, who should be withheld from play, if a concussed athlete is ready to return to the field, and which concussed athlete will develop a post-concussion syndrome. Biomarkers can be detected in the cerebrospinal fluid and blood after traumatic brain injury and their levels may have prognostic value. Despite significant investigation, questions remain as …

Development And Validation Of A Scale To Measure Songwriting Self-Efficacy (Sses) With Secondary Music Students, Patrick K. Cooper

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Social cognitive theory was developed to explain how individuals learn, in part, by witnessing the behavior of others. Self-efficacy is a construct within social cognitive theory which indicates the beliefs that an individual can be successful at a task under specific situational demands. The sources of self-efficacy include self-evaluating past experiences to predict future success, comparing our abilities to those around us, the verbal and social feedback we get from others, and the physiological feelings we experience when engaged in or thinking about the task. Measures of self-efficacy have been shown to be accurate predictors of successful learning outcomes, achievement, …

Covid-19 And The Impact On Rural And Black Church Congregants: Results Of The C-M-C Project, Lovoria B. Williams, Anita F. Fernander, Tofial Azam, Maria L. Gomez, Junghee Kang, Cassidy L. Moody, Hannah Bowman, Nancy E. Schoenberg

Nursing Faculty Publications

The COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating effects on Black and rural populations with a mortality rate among Blacks three times that of Whites and both rural and Black populations experiencing limited access to COVID-19 resources. The primary purpose of this study was to explore the health, financial, and psychological impact of COVID-19 among rural White Appalachian and Black nonrural central Kentucky church congregants. Secondarily we sought to examine the association between sociodemographics and behaviors, attitudes, and beliefs regarding COVID-19 and intent to vaccinate. We used a cross sectional survey design developed with the constructs of the Health Belief and Theory …

Identification Of Novel And Rare Variants Associated With Handgrip Strength Using Whole Genome Sequence Data From The Nhlbi Trans-Omics In Precision Medicine (Topmed) Program, Chloé Sarnowski, Han Chen, Mary L. Biggs, Sylvia Wassertheil-Smoller, Jan Bressler, Marguerite R. Irvin, Kathleen A. Ryan, David Karasik, Donna K. Arnett, L. Adrienne Cupples, David W. Fardo, Stephanie M. Gogarten, Benjamin D. Heavner, Deepti Jain, Hyun Min Kang, Charles Kooperberg, Arch G. Mainous, Braxton D. Mitchell, Alanna C. Morrison, Jeffrey R. O'Connell

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Handgrip strength is a widely used measure of muscle strength and a predictor of a range of morbidities including cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality. Previous genome-wide association studies of handgrip strength have focused on common variants primarily in persons of European descent. We aimed to identify rare and ancestry-specific genetic variants associated with handgrip strength by conducting whole-genome sequence association analyses using 13,552 participants from six studies representing diverse population groups from the Trans-Omics in Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program. By leveraging multiple handgrip strength measures performed in study participants over time, we increased our effective sample size by 7-12%. Single-variant …

Traveling Wave Solutions For Two Species Competitive Chemotaxis Systems, T. B. Issa, Richadi B. Salako, W. Shen

Mathematical Sciences Faculty Research

In this paper, we consider two species chemotaxis systems with Lotka–Volterra competition reaction terms. Under appropriate conditions on the parameters in such a system, we establish the existence of traveling wave solutions of the system connecting two spatially homogeneous equilibrium solutions with wave speed greater than some critical number c∗. We also show the non-existence of such traveling waves with speed less than some critical number c0∗, which is independent of the chemotaxis. Moreover, under suitable hypotheses on the coefficients of the reaction terms, we obtain explicit range for the chemotaxis sensitivity coefficients ensuring c∗=c0∗, which implies that the minimum …

On The Use Of Minimum Penalties In Statistical Learning, Ben Sherwood, Bradley S. Price

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Modern multivariate machine learning and statistical methodologies estimate parameters of interest while leveraging prior knowledge of the association between outcome variables. The methods that do allow for estimation of relationships do so typically through an error covariance matrix in multivariate regression which does not scale to other types of models. In this article we proposed the MinPEN framework to simultaneously estimate regression coefficients associated with the multivariate regression model and the relationships between outcome variables using mild assumptions. The MinPen framework utilizes a novel penalty based on the minimum function to exploit detected relationships between responses. An iterative algorithm that …

Mental Health Services Provision In Primary Care And Emergency Department Settings: Analysis Of Blended Fee-For-Service And Blended Capitation Models In Ontario, Canada., Thyna Vu, Kelly K Anderson, Nibene H Somé, Amardeep Thind, Sisira Sarma

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Publications

Treating mental illnesses in primary care is increasingly emphasized to improve access to mental health services. Although family physicians (FPs) or general practitioners are in an ideal position to provide the bulk of mental health care, it is unclear how best to remunerate FPs for the adequate provision of mental health services. We examined the quantity of mental health services provided in Ontario's blended fee-for-service and blended capitation models. We evaluated the impact of FPs switching from blended fee-for-service to blended capitation on the provision of mental health services in primary care and emergency department using longitudinal health administrative data …