Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Opioid Abuse: Are Doctors Creating The Problem?, Nguyen Tran

Symposium of Student Scholars

Opioid abuse and overdose are serious health problems in the United States. Current research has concentrated on the treatment and prevention of opioid abuse. Using data from the Controlled Substance Utilization Review and Evaluation System (CURES) for California zip codes, my research focuses on the causes of opioid overdose by considering the relationships between the following variables within each zip code: population size, average number of prescriptions per doctor, percentage of people who receive opioid prescriptions, percentage of people receiving the same prescription drug from 3 or more doctors, average number of opioid pills per prescription and number of people …

Market Research: How To Keep And Gain Customers, Chris Mccall

Symposium of Student Scholars

Customer-centered market research is essential to the creation and management of successful marketing campaigns. A company that understands their customers will be able to provide those customers with products and services that fit their needs better than the competition, and ultimately increase profits. My research focuses on a database containing customer information for a telecommunications company called Telco. Within this research, I will focus on a number of customer attributes including demographics, services provided, payment methods, contract lengths, monthly charges, and tenure with the company. Considering how these attributes relate to one another will give me a better understanding of …

Food Deserts: Hungry For Answers, Lawren Cumberbatch

Symposium of Student Scholars

In 2010, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that 23.5 million people in the United States live in food deserts. As defined by the USDA, a “food desert” is a neighborhood that lacks healthy food sources. This can be measured by distance to a store, number of stores in an area, individual-level resources such as family income or vehicle availability, and neighborhood-level resources such as availability of public transportation. Past research provides evidence that food deserts are especially likely to occur in communities heavily populated by minorities. As a Black Indian pre-med student aiming to join the world …

Determining Malignancy: Can Mammogram Results Help Predict The Diagnosis Of Breast Tumors?, Taylor Behrens

Symposium of Student Scholars

Even with advancements in treatment and preventative care, breast cancer remains an epidemic claiming more than 40,000 American male and female lives each year. The mammogram dataset that I am analyzing was initially complied in the early 1990s by a team from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. Past research diagnoses breast cancer from fine-needle aspirates. My research focuses on predicting whether we can determine breast cancer diagnoses without the use of invasive procedures and, in particular, whether we can predict breast cancer based on mammogram data. Do measures of gray-scale texture, radius, concavity, perimeter, compactness, area, and smoothness of …

Accidental Overdoses: Insights To Aid In Prevention, Annabel Nganga

Symposium of Student Scholars

Having lost a friend six years ago to an accidental cocaine overdose, I am very passionate about spreading awareness of accidental drug overdoses that have affected thousands of families countrywide. According to past research, deaths resulting from opiates specifically have been on the rise, and a significant number of deaths in the United States for those below fifty years are caused by drug overdoses. Data exists indicating which states have more overdoses. The data set I will be using includes variables on race, sex, age, drug with which person overdosed, location of the overdose, ultimate cause of death and year …

Death By Police: When “Protecting And Serving” Goes Wrong, Hesper Mallis

Symposium of Student Scholars

The recent cases of law enforcement using lethal force in the United States have gained massive public attention. My dataset is from the Mapping Police Violence website. The website’s focus was to create a heat map to display where police killings occurred most frequently. The website has a dataset with information on 7,664 deaths of suspects. The variables in the dataset include age, sex and race of the suspect; geographic location; alleged threat level; alleged weapon; cause of death; and criminal charges against the officer. In addition, the variables include whether the individual had a mental illness, was armed or …

Are There Predictors Of A Running Back’S Success?, Joshua Price

Symposium of Student Scholars

People who analyze football have concentrated in the past on a running back’s 40-yard dash, shuffle, broad jump, vertical jump, and bench press measures. My research will test if the following variables can predict a running back’s success in the NFL: height, weight, conference, offensive line ranking for their team, the running back’s total yards for the season, their average yards for each attempt, the number of times the running back has entered the end zone for a touchdown that season, the running back’s time average time behind the line of scrimmage (TLOS), the percentage of times the running back …

Sources And Aftermaths Of Pipeline Related Leaks And Spills, Justin Smith

Symposium of Student Scholars

The escape of oil and other hazardous materials have been shown to pollute and destroy ecosystems. As an aspiring chemist, I am adamant about the secure handling and transportation of oil and other hazardous materials. In the past, researchers have concentrated on oil’s high viscosity. Oil’s high viscosity physically smothers wildlife, affecting their ability to continue critical functions such as respiration, feeding, and thermoregulation. My research focuses on the source of these oil spills, as well as natural gas leaks, for the purpose of risk assessment. In addition, I compare recovery efforts based on the cause of the leak/spill, the …

On The Front Lines Of Fire: How Do We Save Their Lives?, Cathrine Jatta

Symposium of Student Scholars

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) reports that the United States depends on about 1.1 million firefighters to protect its citizens and property from fire. NIOSH adds that approximately 336,000 are career firefighters; 812,000 are volunteers; and 80 to 100 die in the line of duty each year. NIOSH investigates each fatality individually for the cause and prevention. In contrast, my research will look at a complete dataset of 2005 firefighter fatalities and see if any of the following variables may predict firefighter death: age, cause of death, property type, type of duty (e.g. on-duty, training), and …

Cervical Cancer: Are There Ways To Reduce The Risks?, Madelyn Dorn

Symposium of Student Scholars

History has shown us that when caught early, cervical cancer is curable. Past research has found that the sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), herpes and human papillomavirus (HPV), have been associated with cervical cancer. In contrast, my dataset on 859 women has many more STDs and lifestyle choices compiled on 36 variables. The diagnoses in the dataset are many: cervical condylomatosis, vaginal condylomatosis, vulvo-perineral condylomatosis, syphilis, pelvic inflammatory disease, genital herpes, molluscum contagiosum, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B, HPV, and cervical cancer. In addition to the demographic variable on age, there are many lifestyle choice …

Marijuana Arrests In Toronto Canada: A Look Into The Canadian Criminal Justice System, Steven Tully

Symposium of Student Scholars

Marijuana related drug offenses made up fifty-eight percent of all Controlled Drugs and Substances Act offenses in Canada in 2016. On October 17, 2018, Canada legalized marijuana. As part of the efforts to legalize marijuana, descriptive statistics of single variables, like the age of the arrestees and the number of people arrested per year, were reported by the Toronto Star newspaper. The dataset analyzed in this research predates the legalization of marijuana and was collected from 1997 to 2002 on 5,226 individuals arrested in Toronto, Canada for simple possession of small quantities of marijuana. When an offender was arrested for …

Who Is Next? Evaluating Factors That May Contribute To Heart Failure, Davon Broadwater

Symposium of Student Scholars

Cardiovascular diseases are the number one causes of death globally, and for African Americans those risks are even higher. As an African American university student studying Biology, I am passionate about researching the diseases that affect my race. Current research states that behavioral factors such as obesity, tobacco use, unhealthy diet, and harmful use of alcohol should be avoided. I have chosen to research predictors of what helps patients survive if they already have heart failure. Heart failure develops gradually, where the heart becomes weaker over time and has trouble pumping blood to nourish the cells in the body. Data …

Eradicating Zebra Mussels: What Works?, Elijah Davies

Symposium of Student Scholars

The invasion of U.S lakes and rivers by the invasive species of zebra mussels called Dreissena polymorpha has caused catastrophic harm to the local ecosystem by reproducing and outcompeting native mussel species as well as harm to pipes leading into water sources by binding to surfaces and reproducing to the point that the mussels clog pipes. In addition, recreation areas must be closed due to the sharp shells making areas unusable. In the past, research has focused on individual molluscicides and their eradication of zebra mussels, as well as their effect on native flora and fauna. My research will contrast …

Bias In Police Shootings: Is It Just An Opinion?, Phuong Ho

Symposium of Student Scholars

The claims of racism have drawn public attention toward police brutality and its impact on minorities. Is this just an opinion or is there any statistical evidence? Recent studies from The Atlantic have investigated the average age and ethnicity of victims from police killings in 2015-2016. As an Asian-American, I am motivated to examine the issue of police killings among races and other demographics to find any bias that is present. Using the dataset of 2,204 victims of police killings (2015-2016) collected by The Guardian, I will examine the following variables for bias: age, cause of death, armed/unarmed, race/ethnicity, and …

Do Environmental Toxins Predict Violent Crimes?, Tyler Stahl

Symposium of Student Scholars

Do chemical pollutants that persistent in the environment and bioaccumulate in the body affect human health and behavior? Could these Persistent, Bioaccumulative, and Toxic (PBT) chemicals play a role in the cause of violent crimes due to deterioration of mental and cognitive functions? In the past, Mercury, a PBT chemical, has been shown in salmon to be associated with aggression. Could similar aggression occur in humans exposed to mercury through a toxic spill? Two sources of data are utilized in this analysis. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Annual Toxic Release Inventory publishes data on toxic releases into the environment and …

Soil Bacteria: Metabolic Diversity In A Wildlife Management Area, Nicholas Green

Symposium of Student Scholars

This research is part of a larger study linking the soil microbiome and processes to the aboveground plant community.

Soil samples were collected from six plots under closed canopy in the Sheffield Wildlife management area in the Piedmont ecoregion of Georgia in Paulding County. Two of the plots were located in the longleaf pine savanna where restoration of longleaf pine has been in place since 2010. Samples were collected in sterile plastic tubes at the center of each plot and 10 meters above and below the center. For each sample, soil pH and the concentration of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), …

Community Level Physiological Profiling Of The Longleaf Pine Savannah Microbiome, Gavin Treadaway

Symposium of Student Scholars

Soil microorganisms secrete chemicals into their surroundings, which the root system will uptake and in return release root exudates, which usually consist of low-molecular-weight organic compounds. These root exudates behave as signaling molecules and substrates for microorganisms to recruit beneficial soil bacteria to the plant root system, which will provide the plants with immunity to foliar diseases and pathogen infection. Studies have shown that bacteria on the root surface can protect aerial sections of the plant by promoting induced systemic resistance, a mechanism of increasing physical or chemical barriers of the plant.

The longleaf pine is an endangered species of …

Posterior Propriety Of An Objective Prior For Generalized Hierarchical Normal Linear Models, Cong Lin, Dongchu Sun, Chengyuan Song

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Bayesian Hierarchical models has been widely used in modern statistical application. To deal with the data having complex structures, we propose a generalized hierarchical normal linear (GHNL) model which accommodates arbitrarily many levels, usual design matrices and ‘vanilla’ covariance matrices. Objective hyperpriors can be employed for the GHNL model to express ignorance or match frequentist properties, yet the common objective Bayesian approaches are infeasible or fraught with danger in hierarchical modelling. To tackle this issue, [Berger, J., Sun, D., & Song, C. (2020b). An objective prior for hyperparameters in normal hierarchical models. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 178, 104606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2020.104606] …

Novel Statistical Modeling Methods For Traffic Video Analysis, Hang Shi

Dissertations

Video analysis is an active and rapidly expanding research area in computer vision and artificial intelligence due to its broad applications in modern society. Many methods have been proposed to analyze the videos, but many challenging factors remain untackled. In this dissertation, four statistical modeling methods are proposed to address some challenging traffic video analysis problems under adverse illumination and weather conditions.

First, a new foreground detection method is presented to detect the foreground objects in videos. A novel Global Foreground Modeling (GFM) method, which estimates a global probability density function for the foreground and applies the Bayes decision rule …

Bayesian Sensitivity-Specificity And Roc Analysis For Finding Key Drivers, Stan Lipovetsky, Michael W. Conklin

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Finding key drivers in regression modeling via Bayesian Sensitivity-Specificity and Receiver Operating Characteristic is suggested, and clearly interpretable results are obtained. Numerical comparisons with other techniques show that this methodology can be useful in practical statistical modeling and analysis helping to researchers and managers in making meaningful decisions.

Accelerating The Provision Of Safe Water Supply In Urban And Rural Areas Of Indonesia, Sumengen Sutomo, Salord Sagala, Bebi Sutomo, Sri Winarti, Gelant Sanjaya

Kesmas

Over the past 100 years, the provision of a safe water supply to drink in Indonesia has been slowly progressed with low coverage. The majority of the population does not have access to safe water. Morbidity and mortality of water-related diseases, including diarrhea, are very high. The provision of safe water is not a technological issue but good water management that comprises content, institutional, and communication layer. This paper provided information for strategic and operational decisions to accelerate the provision of safe water services in urban and rural areas. Benchmarking good water management with the characteristics of the water supply …

Association Between Self-Reported Fatigue And Sarcopenia Measures Among Elderly In Selangor, Malaysia, Maria Justine, Aliff Latir, Nadhirah Noor, Angelbeth Joanny, Izzaty Iskandar, Maisarah Sakinah Amirul Faizi, Dzulhelmi Edinan

Kesmas

The association between fatigue and sarcopenia is not well understood, therefore, this study aimed to compare the sarcopenia measures among elderly with mild and severe fatigue and to determine whether fatigue severity is associated with sarcopenia measures. This was a cross-sectional study conducted on201 elderly (age = 68.45±6.30 years). The elderly was classified into either mild or severe fatigue based on the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), meanwhile, sarcopenia measures include SARC-F score, muscle mass (ASM/height2), calf circumference (CC), upper (handgrip) and lower limb muscle strength, as well as physical performance (gait speed). Data were analyzed using independent t-tests and logistic …

Supplementary Files For "Creating A Universal Depth-To-Load Conversion Technique For The Conterminous United States Using Random Forests", Jesse Wheeler, Brennan Bean, Marc Maguire

Browse all Datasets

As part of an ongoing effort to update the ground snow load maps in the United States, this paper presents an investigation into snow densities for the purpose of predicting ground snow loads for structural engineering design with ASCE 7. Despite their importance, direct measurements of snow load are sparse when compared to measurements of snow depth. As a result, it is often necessary to estimate snow load using snow depth and other readily accessible climate variables. Existing depth-to-load conversion methods, each of varying complexity, are well suited for snow load estimation for a particular region or station network, but …

A Randomized Controlled Trial To Determine Whether Beta-Hydroxy-Beta-Methylbutyrate And/Or Eicosapentaenoic Acid Improves Diaphragm And Quadriceps Strength In Critically Ill Mechanically Ventilated Patients, Gerald S. Supinski, Paul F. Netzel, Philip M. Westgate, Elizabeth A. Schroder, Lin Wang, Leigh Ann Callahan

Internal Medicine Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit acquired weakness is a serious problem, contributing to respiratory failure and reductions in ambulation. Currently, there is no pharmacological therapy for this condition. Studies indicate, however, that both beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate (HMB) and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) increase muscle function in patients with cancer and in older adults. The purpose of this study was to determine whether HMB and/or EPA administration would increase diaphragm and quadriceps strength in mechanically ventilated patients.

METHODS: Studies were performed on 83 mechanically ventilated patients who were recruited from the Medical Intensive Care Units at the University of Kentucky. Diaphragm strength was assessed as …

Sounding The Alarm: Down-Ballot Setback For The Democrats In 2020, Yaakov Huba

The Yale Undergraduate Research Journal

The 2020 general election turned out more American voters than any other election, its monumental stakes commanding the attention of the world. While the focus in the race’s aftermath has primarily been the top of the ticket, the rebuke of President Trump’s time in office, the equally important down-ballot races have been largely passed over. Many major political analysts like the Cook Political Report predicted that Democrats would expand their House majority by 5-10 seats. Yet, the Democratic Party ended up losing 10 seats1. During the certification of election results, I collected data on incumbents in the US House of …

Applications Of Bayesian Inference For Modelling Dynamic Instability In Neuronal Dendrite Morphogenesis, Daniel Fridman

The Yale Undergraduate Research Journal

Neurons are complex biological systems which develop intricate morphologies and whose dendrites are essential in receiving and integrating input signals from neighboring neurons. While much research has been done on the role of dendrites in neuronal development, a further understanding of dendrite dynamics can provide insight into neural development and the cellular basis of neurological diseases such as schizophrenia, Down’s syndrome, and autism. The Jonathon Howard lab hypothesizes that microtubules are a primary driving force in dendrite dynamics. Since it is known that microtubules display dynamic instability, rapidly transitioning between growth, paused, and shrinking states, the Howard lab proposes a …

Spatial Analysis Of Landscape Characteristics, Anthropogenic Factors, And Seasonality Effects On Water Quality In Portland, Oregon, Katherine Gelsey, Daniel Ramirez

REU Final Reports

Urban areas often struggle with deteriorated water quality as a result of complex interactions between landscape factors such as land cover, use, and management as well as climatic variables such as weather, precipitation, and atmospheric conditions. Green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) has been introduced as a strategy to reintroduce pre-development hydrological conditions in cities, but questions remain as to how GSI interacts with other landscape factors to affect water quality. We conducted a statistical analysis of six relevant water quality indicators in 131 water quality stations in four watersheds around Portland, Oregon using data from 2015 to 2021. Indiscriminate of station …

Modeling Covid-19 Spread In Small Colleges, Riti Bahl, Nicole Eikmeier, Alexandra Fraser, Matthew Junge, Felicia Keesing, Kukai Nakahata, Lily Reeves

Publications and Research

We develop an agent-based model on a network meant to capture features unique to COVID-19 spread through a small residential college. We find that a safe reopening requires strong policy from administrators combined with cautious behavior from students. Strong policy includes weekly screening tests with quick turnaround and halving the campus population. Cautious behavior from students means wearing facemasks, socializing less, and showing up for COVID-19 testing. We also find that comprehensive testing and facemasks are the most effective single interventions, building closures can lead to infection spikes in other areas depending on student behavior, and faster return of test …

Performance Of The Beta-Binomial Model For Clustered Binary Responses: Comparison With Generalized Estimating Equations, Seongah Im

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This study examined performance of the beta-binomial model in comparison with GEE using clustered binary responses resulting in non-normal outcomes. Monte Carlo simulations were performed under varying intracluster correlations and sample sizes. The results showed that the beta-binomial model performed better for small sample, while GEE performed well under large sample.

Utilizing Patient-Derived Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Tumor Organoids To Predict Carboplatin Resistance, Justin W. Gorski, Zhuwei Zhang, J. Robert Mccorkle, Jodi M. Dejohn, Chi Wang, Rachel W. Miller, Holly H. Gallion, Charles S. Dietrich Iii, Frederick R. Ueland, Jill M. Kolesar

Obstetrics and Gynecology Faculty Publications

The development of patient-derived tumor organoids (TOs) from an epithelial ovarian cancer tumor obtained at the time of primary or interval debulking surgery has the potential to play an important role in precision medicine. Here, we utilized TOs to test front-line chemotherapy sensitivity and to investigate genomic drivers of carboplatin resistance. We developed six high-grade, serous epithelial ovarian cancer tumor organoid lines from tissue obtained during debulking surgery (two neoadjuvant-carboplatin-exposed and four chemo-naïve). Each organoid line was screened for sensitivity to carboplatin at four different doses (100, 10, 1, and 0.1 µM). Cell viability curves and resultant EC₅₀ values …