Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Elementary Statistics (Augusta), Neal Smith, Daphne Skipper, Marvalisa Payne, Robert Scott, Christopher Terry

Mathematics Grants Collections

This Grants Collection for Elementary Statistics was created under a Round Four ALG Textbook Transformation Grant.

Affordable Learning Georgia Grants Collections are intended to provide faculty with the frameworks to quickly implement or revise the same materials as a Textbook Transformation Grants team, along with the aims and lessons learned from project teams during the implementation process.

Documents are in .pdf format, with a separate .docx (Word) version available for download. Each collection contains the following materials:

• Linked Syllabus
• Initial Proposal
• Final Report

Quantitative Skills And Reasoning (Armstrong), Patricia Brown, Joshua Lambert

Mathematics Grants Collections

This Grants Collection for Quantitative Skills and Reasoning was created under a Round Five ALG Textbook Transformation Grant.

Affordable Learning Georgia Grants Collections are intended to provide faculty with the frameworks to quickly implement or revise the same materials as a Textbook Transformation Grants team, along with the aims and lessons learned from project teams during the implementation process.

Documents are in .pdf format, with a separate .docx (Word) version available for download. Each collection contains the following materials:

• Linked Syllabus
• Initial Proposal
• Final Report

A Phase Iii, Randomized, Multi-Center, Double Blind, Placebo Controlled Study Of Safety And Efficacy Of Lofexidine For Relief Of Symptoms In Individuals Undergoing Inpatient Opioid Withdrawal, Charles W. Gorodetzky, Sharon L. Walsh, Peter R. Martin, Andrew J. Saxon, Kristen L. Gullo, Kousick Biswas

Center on Drug and Alcohol Research Faculty Publications

Background: Lofexidine is an alpha-2-adrenergic receptor agonist approved in the United Kingdom (UK) for the treatment of opioid withdrawal symptoms. Lofexidine has demonstrated better efficacy than placebo for reducing opioid withdrawal symptoms in patients undergoing opioid withdrawal with less reported hypotension than clonidine.

Methods: Designed as an FDA registration trial, this 8-day, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study in 264 patients dependent on short-acting opioids evaluated the efficacy of lofexidine hydrochloride in reducing withdrawal symptoms in patients undergoing opioid withdrawal. The primary efficacy measures were SOWS-Gossop on Day 3 and time-to-dropout. Secondary endpoints included the proportion of participants who were completers; …

A Privacy Preserving Framework For Rfid Based Healthcare Systems, Farzana Rahman, Anwarul A. Bhuiyan, Sheikh Iqbal Ahamed

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) is anticipated to be a core technology that will be used in many practical applications of our life in near future. It has received considerable attention within the healthcare for almost a decade now. The technology’s promise to efficiently track hospital supplies, medical equipment, medications and patients is an attractive proposition to the healthcare industry. However, the prospect of wide spread use of RFID tags in the healthcare area has also triggered discussions regarding privacy, particularly because RFID data in transit may easily be intercepted and can be send to track its user (owner). In a …

Factor Based Statistical Arbitrage In The U.S. Equity Market With A Model Breakdown Detection Process, Seoungbyung Park

Master's Theses (2009 -)

Many researchers have studied different strategies of statistical arbitrage to provide a steady stream of returns that are unrelated to the market condition. Among different strategies, factor-based mean reverting strategies have been popular and covered by many. This thesis aims to add value by evaluating the generalized pairs trading strategy and suggest enhancements to improve out-of-sample performance. The enhanced strategy generated the daily Sharpe ratio of 6.07% in the out-of-sample period from January 2013 through October 2016 with the correlation of -.03 versus S&P 500. During the same period, S&P 500 generated the Sharpe ratio of 6.03%. This thesis is …

Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, Ronald I. Greenberg

Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

Magic tricks based on computer science concepts help grab student attention and can motivate them to delve more deeply. Error detection ideas long used by computer scientists provide a rich basis for working magic; probably the most well known trick of this type is one included in the CS Unplugged activities. This paper shows that much more powerful variations of the trick can be performed, some in an unplugged environment and some with computer assistance. Some of the tricks also show off additional concepts in computer science and discrete mathematics.

Evaluation Of Multiple Interventions Using A Stepped Wedge Design, Vivian H. Lyons, Lingyu Li, James Hughes, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Background: Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials are a class of unidirectional crossover studies that have historically been limited to evaluating a single intervention. This design is especially suitable for pragmatic trials where the study feasibility can be improved with a phased introduction of the intervention. We examined variations of stepped wedge designs that would support evaluation of multiple interventions. Methods: We propose four different design variants for implementing a stepped wedge trial with two interventions: concurrent design, supplementation, replacement, and factorial designs. Analyses were conducted comparing the precision of the estimated intervention effects for the different designs. Results: Concurrent, …

Biomarker Combinations For Diagnosis And Prognosis In Multicenter Studies: Principles And Methods, Allison Meisner, Chirag R. Parikh, Kathleen F. Kerr

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Many investigators are interested in combining biomarkers to predict an outcome of interest or detect underlying disease. This endeavor is complicated by the fact that many biomarker studies involve data from multiple centers. Depending upon the relationship between center, the biomarkers, and the target of prediction, care must be taken when constructing and evaluating combinations of biomarkers. We introduce a taxonomy to describe the role of center and consider how a biomarker combination should be constructed and evaluated. We show that ignoring center, which is frequently done by clinical researchers, is often not appropriate. The limited statistical literature proposes using …

An Investigation Of The Accuracy Of Parallel Analysis For Determining The Number Of Factors In A Factor Analysis, Mandy Matsumoto

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Exploratory factor analysis is an analytic technique used to determine the number of factors in a set of data (usually items on a questionnaire) for which the factor structure has not been previously analyzed. Parallel analysis (PA) is a technique used to determine the number of factors in a factor analysis. There are a number of factors that affect the results of a PA: the choice of the eigenvalue percentile, the strength of the factor loadings, the number of variables, and the sample size of the study. Although PA is the most accurate method to date to determine which factors …

Mixture Models For Undiagnosed Prevalent Disease And Interval-Censored Incident Disease: Applications To A Cohort Assembled From Electronic Health Records., Li C Cheung, Qing Pan, Noorie Hyun, Mark Schiffman, Barbara Fetterman, Philip E Castle, Thomas Lorey, Hormuzd A Katki

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

For cost-effectiveness and efficiency, many large-scale general-purpose cohort studies are being assembled within large health-care providers who use electronic health records. Two key features of such data are that incident disease is interval-censored between irregular visits and there can be pre-existing (prevalent) disease. Because prevalent disease is not always immediately diagnosed, some disease diagnosed at later visits are actually undiagnosed prevalent disease. We consider prevalent disease as a point mass at time zero for clinical applications where there is no interest in time of prevalent disease onset. We demonstrate that the naive Kaplan-Meier cumulative risk estimator underestimates risks at early …

Time Series Online Empirical Bayesian Kernel Density Segmentation: Applications In Real Time Activity Recognition Using Smartphone Accelerometer, Shuang Na

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Time series analysis has been explored by the researchers in many areas such, as statistical research, engineering applications, medical analysis, and finance study. To represent the data more efficiently, the mining process is supported by time series segmentation. Time series segmentation algorithm looks for the change points between two different patterns and develops a suitable model, depending on the data observed in such segment. Based on the issue of limited computing and storage capability, it is necessary to consider an adaptive and incremental online segmentation method. In this study, we propose an Online Empirical Bayesian Kernel Segmentation (OBKS), which combines …

Cybersecurity: Probabilistic Behavior Of Vulnerability And Life Cycle, Sasith Maduranga Rajasooriya

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Analysis on Vulnerabilities and Vulnerability Life Cycle is at the core of Cybersecurity related studies. Vulnerability Life Cycle discussed by S. Frei and studies by several other scholars have noted the importance of this approach. Application of Statistical Methodologies in Cybersecurity related studies call for a greater deal of new information. Using currently available data from National Vulnerability Database this study develops and presents a set of useful Statistical tools to be applied in Cybersecurity related decision making processes.

In the present study, the concept of Vulnerability Space is defined as a probability space. Relevant theoretical analyses are conducted and …

Marketing The Mountain State: A Large N Study Of User Engagement On Twitter, Kirk Richardson

Capstone Projects – Politics and Government

Much of the evolving research on the use of social media in destination marketing emphasizes how information diffusion influences the reputational image of place. The present study uses Twitter data to focus on the relative differences in user engagement across discrete account types. Specifically, this is done to examine how the official destination marketing organization of Montana—the Montana Office of Tourism (MTOT)—performs relative to other account types. Several regression analyses conducted on Twitter data associated with an ongoing MTOT place branding campaign reveal that tweets sent from ‘official’ accounts are more likely to be retweeted, and are estimated to receive …

Cybersecurity: Stochastic Analysis And Modelling Of Vulnerabilities To Determine The Network Security And Attackers Behavior, Pubudu Kalpani Kaluarachchi

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Development of Cybersecurity processes and strategies should take two main approaches. One is to develop an efficient and effective set of methodologies to identify software vulnerabilities and patch them before being exploited. Second is to develop a set of methodologies to predict the behavior of attackers and execute defending techniques based on attacking behavior. Managing of Vulnerabilities and analyzing them is directly related to the first approach. Developing of methodologies and models to predict the behavior of attackers is related to the second approach. Both these approaches are inseparably interconnected. Our effort in this study mainly focuses on developing useful …

A Microrna Signature Of Response To Erlotinib Is Descriptive Of Tgfβ Behaviour In Nsclc, Madeline J. Krentz Gober, James P. Collard, Katherine L. Thompson, Esther P. Black

Pharmaceutical Sciences Faculty Publications

Our previous work identified a 13-gene miRNA signature predictive of response to the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor, erlotinib, in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer cell lines. Bioinformatic analysis of the signature showed a functional convergence on TGFβ canonical signalling. We hypothesized that TGFβ signalling controls expression of the miRNA genes comprising an erlotinib response signature in NSCLC. Western analysis revealed that TGFβ signalling via Smad2/3/4 occurred differently between erlotinib-resistant A549 and erlotinib- sensitive PC9 cells. We showed that TGFβ induced an interaction between Smad4 and putative Smad Binding Elements in PC9. However, qRT-PCR analysis showed that endogenous miR-140/141/200c expression …

Analysis Of A Potential A(H7n9) Influenza Pandemic Outbreak In The U.S., Walter A. Silva Sotillo

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation presents a collection of manuscripts that describe development of models and model implementation to analyze impact of potential A(H7N9) pandemic influenza outbreak in the U.S. Though this virus is still only animal-to-human transmittable, it has potential to become human-to-human transmittable and trigger a pandemic. This work is motivated by the negative impact on human lives that this virus has already caused in China, and is intended to support public health officials in preparing to protect U.S. population from a potential outbreak of pandemic scale.

An agent-based (AB) simulation model is used to replicate the social dynamics of the …

Safety Of Induced Sputum Collection In Children Hospitalized With Severe Or Very Severe Pneumonia., Andrea N Deluca, Laura L Hammitt, Julia Kim, Melissa M Higdon, Henry C Baggett, Daniel E Park, +Several Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background.: Induced sputum (IS) may provide diagnostic information about the etiology of pneumonia. The safety of this procedure across a heterogeneous population with severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries has not been described.

Methods.: IS specimens were obtained as part a 7-country study of the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in hospitalized childrenbefore, during, and after the procedure to record oxygen requirement, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, consciousness level, and other evidence of clinical deterioration. Criteria for IS contraindications were predefined and serious adverse events (SAEs) were reported to ethics committees and a central safety monitor.

Results.: A …

Data Management And Data Quality In Perch, A Large International Case-Control Study Of Severe Childhood Pneumonia., Nora L Watson, Christine Prosperi, Amanda J Driscoll, Melissa M Higdon, Daniel E Park, Megan Sanza, Andrea N Deluca, Juliet O Awori, Doli Goswami, Emily Hammond, Lokman Hossain, Catherine Johnson, Alice Kamau, Locadiah Kuwanda, David P Moore, Omid Neyzari, Uma Onwuchekwa, David Parker, Patranuch Sapchookul

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study is the largest multicountry etiology study of pediatric pneumonia undertaken in the past 3 decades. The study enrolled 4232 hospitalized cases and 5325 controls over 2 years across 9 research sites in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. The volume and complexity of data collection in PERCH presented considerable logistical and technical challenges. The project chose an internet-based data entry system to allow real-time access to the data, enabling the project to monitor and clean incoming data and perform preliminary analyses throughout the study. To ensure high-quality data, the project developed …

Colonization Density Of The Upper Respiratory Tract As A Predictor Of Pneumonia-Haemophilus Influenzae, Moraxella Catarrhalis, Staphylococcus Aureus, And Pneumocystis Jirovecii., Daniel E Park, Henry C Baggett, Stephen R C Howie, Qiyuan Shi, Nora L Watson, W Abdullah Brooks, Perch Study Group

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background.

There is limited information on the association between colonization density of upper respiratory tract colonizers and pathogen-specific pneumonia. We assessed this association for Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pneumocystis jirovecii. Methods.

In 7 low- and middle-income countries, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children with severe pneumonia and age-frequency matched community controls were tested using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Differences in median colonization density were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Density cutoffs were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. Cases with a pathogen identified from lung aspirate culture or PCR, pleural fluid culture or …

Microscopic Analysis And Quality Assessment Of Induced Sputum From Children With Pneumonia In The Perch Study., David R Murdoch, Susan C Morpeth, Laura L Hammitt, Amanda J Driscoll, Daniel E Park, +Several Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background.

It is standard practice for laboratories to assess the cellular quality of expectorated sputum specimens to check that they originated from the lower respiratory tract. The presence of low numbers of squamous epithelial cells (SECs) and high numbers of polymorphonuclear (PMN) cells are regarded as indicative of a lower respiratory tract specimen. However, these quality ratings have never been evaluated for induced sputum specimens from children with suspected pneumonia. Methods.

We evaluated induced sputum Gram stain smears and cultures from hospitalized children aged 1–59 months enrolled in a large study of community-acquired pneumonia. We hypothesized that a specimen representative …

Is Higher Viral Load In The Upper Respiratory Tract Associated With Severe Pneumonia? Findings From The Perch Study., Daniel R Feikin, Wei Fu, Daniel E Park, Qiyuan Shi, Melissa M Higdon, Henry C Baggett, +Several Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background.

The etiologic inference of identifying a pathogen in the upper respiratory tract (URT) of children with pneumonia is unclear. To determine if viral load could provide evidence of causality of pneumonia, we compared viral load in the URT of children with World Health Organization–defined severe and very severe pneumonia and age-matched community controls.

Methods.

In the 9 developing country sites, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children with and without pneumonia were tested using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for 17 viruses. The association of viral load with case status was evaluated using logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed …

Association Of C-Reactive Protein With Bacterial And Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Pneumonia Among Children Aged <5 Years In The Perch Study., Melissa M Higdon, Tham Le, Katherine L O'Brien, David R Murdoch, Christine Prosperi, Henry C Baggett, Daniel E Park, +Several Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background.

Lack of a gold standard for identifying bacterial and viral etiologies of pneumonia has limited evaluation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for identifying bacterial pneumonia. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP for identifying bacterial vs respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) multicenter case-control study. Methods.

We measured serum CRP levels in cases with World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia and a subset of community controls. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of elevated CRP for “confirmed” bacterial pneumonia (positive blood culture or positive lung aspirate or pleural fluid …

Standardization Of Clinical Assessment And Sample Collection Across All Perch Study Sites., Jane Crawley, Christine Prosperi, Henry C Baggett, W Abdullah Brooks, Maria Deloria Knoll, Daniel E Park, +Several Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background.: Variable adherence to standardized case definitions, clinical procedures, specimen collection techniques, and laboratory methods has complicated the interpretation of previous multicenter pneumonia etiology studies. To circumvent these problems, a program of clinical standardization was embedded in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study.

Methods.: Between March 2011 and August 2013, standardized training on the PERCH case definition, clinical procedures, and collection of laboratory specimens was delivered to 331 clinical staff at 9 study sites in 7 countries (The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Zambia, Thailand, and Bangladesh), through 32 on-site courses and a training website. Staff competency …

The Diagnostic Utility Of Induced Sputum Microscopy And Culture In Childhood Pneumonia., David R Murdoch, Susan C Morpeth, Laura L Hammitt, Amanda J Driscoll, Nora L Watson, Daniel E Park, +Several Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background.

Sputum microscopy and culture are commonly used for diagnosing the cause of pneumonia in adults but are rarely performed in children due to difficulties in obtaining specimens. Induced sputum is occasionally used to investigate lower respiratory infections in children but has not been widely used in pneumonia etiology studies. Methods.

We evaluated the diagnostic utility of induced sputum microscopy and culture in patients enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study, a large study of community-acquired pneumonia in children aged 1–59 months. Comparisons were made between induced sputum samples from hospitalized children with radiographically confirmed pneumonia …

Treatment Pathway Of Bone Sarcoma In Children, Adolescents, And Young Adults, Damon R. Reed, Masanori Hayashi, Lars M. Wagner, Odion Binitie, Diana A. Steppan, Andrew S. Brohl, Eric T. Shinohara, Julia A. Bridge, David M. Loeb, Scott C. Borinstein, Michael S. Isakoff

Pediatrics Faculty Publications

When pediatric, adolescent, and young adult patients present with a bone sarcoma, treatment decisions, especially after relapse, are complex and require a multidisciplinary approach. This review presents scenarios commonly encountered in the therapy of bone sarcomas with the goal of objectively presenting a consensus, multidisciplinary management approach. Little variation was found in the authors' group with respect to local control or systemic therapy. Clinical trials were universally prioritized in all settings. Decisions regarding relapse therapies in the absence of a clinical trial had very minor variations initially, but a consensus was reached after a literature review and discussion. This review …

Identifying Risk Factors For Interstate Crashes Using Spatial Statistics, Kaitlin Gibson, Matthew Heaton

Journal of Undergraduate Research

The goal of systemic highway safety improvement is to identify road characteristics, called risk factors, associated with a higher prevalence of crashes, so that the roads can be modified to avoid these characteristics. However, the statistical analyses these improvement projects are based on generally use methods which are not appropriate for the data. Our project implements novel spatial statistical methodology which is appropriate and state-of-the-art to identify these risk factors.

An Algorithm For Multiple Regression Variable Selection For Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Zach White, Dr. William Christensen

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) is used to measure of the amount of oxygen required by aerobic bacteria and other microorganisms to stabilize decomposable organic matter. It is run as a laboratory based biodegradation test and relies upon the presence of a thriving microbial community that may be naturally present in the sample or artificially introduced by addition of a seed, commonly a known volume of sewage effluent of known BOD. A standard BOD test is run in the dark at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius for 5 days. This is defined as a five-day BOD (BOD5), which is the …

Real-Time Classification Of Biomedical Signals, Parkinson’S Analytical Model, Abolfazl Saghafi

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The reach of technological innovation continues to grow, changing all industries as it evolves. In healthcare, technology is increasingly playing a role in almost all processes, from patient registration to data monitoring, from lab tests to self-care tools. The increase in the amount and diversity of generated clinical data requires development of new technologies and procedures capable of integrating and analyzing the BIG generated information as well as providing support in their interpretation.

To that extent, this dissertation focuses on the analysis and processing of biomedical signals, specifically brain and heart signals, using advanced machine learning techniques. That is, the …

Optimal, Two Stage, Adaptive Enrichment Designs For Randomized Trials Using Sparse Linear Programming, Michael Rosenblum, Xingyuan Fang, Han Liu

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Adaptive enrichment designs involve preplanned rules for modifying enrollment criteria based on accruing data in a randomized trial. We focus on designs where the overall population is partitioned into two predefined subpopulations, e.g., based on a biomarker or risk score measured at baseline. The goal is to learn which populations benefit from an experimental treatment. Two critical components of adaptive enrichment designs are the decision rule for modifying enrollment, and the multiple testing procedure. We provide a general method for simultaneously optimizing these components for two stage, adaptive enrichment designs. We minimize the expected sample size under constraints on power …

How To Estimate Statistical Characteristics Based On A Sample: Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Approach Leads To Sample Mean, Sample Variance, Etc., Vladik Kreinovich, Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In many practical situations, we need to estimate different statistical characteristics based on a sample. In some cases, we know that the corresponding probability distribution belongs to a known finite-parametric family of distributions. In such cases, a reasonable idea is to use the Maximum Likelihood method to estimate the corresponding parameters, and then to compute the value of the desired statistical characteristic for the distribution with these parameters.

In some practical situations, we do not know any family containing the unknown distribution. We show that in such nonparametric cases, the Maximum Likelihood approach leads to the use of sample mean, …