Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Priority Queueing System With A Single Server Serving Two Queues M[X1],M[X2]/G1,G2/1 With Balking And Optional Server Vacation, G. Ayyappan, P. Thamizhselvi

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In this paper we study a vacation queueing system with a single server simultaneously dealing with an M^{[x₁] _/}G₁/1 and an M^{[x₂] /}G₂/1 queues. Two classes of units, priority and non-priority, arrive at the system in two independent compound Poisson streams. Under a non-preemptive priority rule, the server provides a general service to the priority and non-priority units. We further assume that the server may take a vacation of random length just after serving the last customer in the priority unit present in the system. If the server …

Analysis Of Incomplete Longitudinal Binary Data-A Combined Markov’S Transition And Logistic Model For Non-Ignorable Missingness, Francis Erebholo, Paul Bezandry, Victor Apprey, John Kwagyan

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The problem of incomplete data is a common phenomenon in research that involves the longitudinal design approach. We investigate and develop a likelihood-based approach for incomplete longitudinal binary data using the disposition model when the missing value mechanism is non-ignorable. We combined Markov’s transition and a logistic regression model to build the dropout process and model the response using conditional logistic regression model. By holding the missingness parameter that is weakly identified constant, we analyzed their effects through a sensitivity analysis as the estimation of parameters in MLE for non-ignorable missing data is not generally plausible. An application of our …

Measurement Error Estimation Methods In Survey Methodology, Alireza Zahedian, Roshanak A. Saba

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

One of the most important topics that are discussed in survey methodology is the accuracy of statistics or survey errors that may occur in the parameters estimation process. In statistical literature, these errors are grouped into two main categories: sampling errors and non-sampling errors. Measurement error is one of the most important non-sampling errors. Since estimating of measurement error is more complex than other types of survey errors, much more research has been done on ways of preventing or dealing with this error. The main problem associated with measurement error is the difficulty to measure or estimate this error in …

Testing Multiple Hypotheses With Skewed Alternatives, Naveen K. Bansal, Gholamhossein G. Hamedani, Mehdi Maadooliat

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

In many practical cases of multiple hypothesis problems, it can be expected that the alternatives are not symmetrically distributed. If it is known a priori that the distributions of the alternatives are skewed, we show that this information yields high power procedures as compared to the procedures based on symmetric alternatives when testing multiple hypotheses. We propose a Bayesian decision theoretic rule for multiple directional hypothesis testing, when the alternatives are distributed as skewed, under a constraint on a mixed directional false discovery rate. We compare the proposed rule with a frequentist's rule of Benjamini and Yekutieli (2005) using simulations. …

Thinking Poker Through Game Theory, Damian Palafox

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Poker is a complex game to analyze. In this project we will use the mathematics of game theory to solve some simplified variations of the game. Probability is the building block behind game theory. We must understand a few concepts from probability such as distributions, expected value, variance, and enumeration methods to aid us in studying game theory. We will solve and analyze games through game theory by using different decision methods, decision trees, and the process of domination and simplification. Poker models, with and without cards, will be provided to illustrate optimal strategies. Extensions to those models will be …

Metals Additive Manufacturing Powder Aging Characterization, Thomas Russell Lovejoy, Nicholas Karl Muetterties, David Takeo Otsu

Mechanical Engineering

The metallic additive manufacturing process known as selective laser melting requires highly spherical, normally distributed powder with diameters in the range of 10 to 50 microns. Previous observations have shown a degradation in powder quality over time, resulting in unwanted characteristics in the final printed parts. 21-6-9 stainless steel powder was used to fabricate test parts, with leftover powder recycled back into the machine. Powder samples and test specimens were characterized to observe changes across build cycles. Few changes were observed in the physical and mechanical properties of the specimens, however, there were indications of chemical changes across cycles. Potential …

An Early Assessment Of Medium Range Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts From The Latest High-Resolution Ncep-Gfs (T1534) Model Over South Asia, Satya Prakash, Imaranali M. Momin, Ashis K. Mitra, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Fanglin Yang, Vijay Tallapragada

Publications and Research

Reliable prediction of the South Asian monsoon rainfall and its variability is crucial for various hydrological applications and early warning systems. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction – Global Forecast System (NCEP–GFS) is one of the popular global deterministic numerical weather prediction models, which is recently upgraded from T574 to T1534. In this paper, medium range monsoon precipitation forecasts from both the T1534 and T574 models are critically evaluated over the South Asia for the peak monsoon months (July and August) of 2015. Although both the versions of GFS model show similar large-scale monsoon rainfall patterns, the dry bias over …

Statistical Methodology For Data With Multiple Limits Of Detection, Robert M. Flikkema

Dissertations

Limitations of instruments used to collect continuous data sometimes lead to obtaining observations lower than a limit of detection. These observations are known as nondetects. They could be zeroes, or positive numbers, but they are too small to be recorded by a measuring device. Nondetects frequently occur in environmental data. Trace amounts of chemicals can exist in soil or groundwater and are undetectable by a machine reading. These observations pose a problem to researchers since the true values are unknown.

Simulations in the literature have led to inconsistent conclusions regarding what estimation technique to use with nondetect data when estimating …

Effect Of Ambient Particulate Matter 2.5 Micrometer (Pm2.5) To Prevalence Of Impaired Lung Function And Asthma In Tangerang And Makassar, Budi Haryanto, Budy Resosoedarmo, Sri Tjahjani Budi Utami, Budi Hartono, Ema Hermawati

Kesmas

Emisi partikel debu 2,5 mikrometer (PM2.5) meningkat dengan bertambahnya jumlah penduduk kota akibat peningkatan angka kendaraan bermotor sebagai transportasi penduduk sehari-hari. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat gangguan fungsi paru dan asma serta hubungannya dengan kadar ambien PM2.5 pada masyarakat migran di Tangerang dan Makassar dan kondisi sosial ekonomi. Desain potong lintang digunakan dengan melibatkan 4.250 dan 2.900 responden di Tangerang dan Makassar pada bulan April sampai September 2010. Pendekatan cluster sampling diterapkan. Pengukuran ambien PM2.5 di masing-masing kota berdasarkan koordinat 40 lokasi Global Positioning System (GPS). Kadar PM2.5 ditemukan lebih tinggi pada pagi hari dibandingkan siang hari di kedua …

Birth Intervals Among Multiparous Women In Indonesia, Dini Kurniawati, Sabarinah Prasetyo

Kesmas

Angka kematian ibu dan angka kematian bayi di Indonesia masih tinggi. Salah satu faktor yang menyebabkan tingginya risiko kematian pada ibu dan bayi adalah kelahiran terlalu dekat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari determinan jarak antarkelahiran pada perempuan multipara di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data Survei Demografi Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012 pada 9.945 perempuan multipara. Analisis data menggunakan uji Mann Whitney, Kruskal Wallis, dan regresi logistik. Median jarak antarkelahiran sebesar 62 bulan dan 22,8% perempuan memiliki jarak antarkelahiran kurang dari tiga tahun. Hasil menunjukkan determinan jarak antarkelahiran pendek meliputi pendidikan ibu, usia terakhir melahirkan, ukuran ideal keluarga, pemakaian kontrasepsi, riwayat kematian …

Child Health Improvement Through Implementation Of Food Safety Model, Arief Safari, Machfud Machfud, Eriyatno Eriyatno, Heny Kuswanti Daryanto

Kesmas

Pemenuhan akan pangan merupakan komponen dasar untuk mewujudkan sumber daya manusia yang berkualitas. Namun, masih terdapat permasalahan dalam mewujudkannya, di antaranya masalah keamanan pangan dengan persentase kasus keracunan makanan masih tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis situasi pelaksanaan keamanan Pangan Jajanan Anak Sekolah (PJAS) yang ada saat ini dan memilih alternatif model keamanan pangan yang paling efektif dan efisien diterapkan di usaha mikro kecil (UMK) guna meningkatkan keamanan pangan yang dihasilkannya sehingga terjadi peningkatan kesehatan anak. Penelitian dilakukan pada kuartal II tahun 2015 sampai dengan awal kuartal III tahun 2015 melalui survei lapangan dan survei pakar dengan mengambil studi kasus …

Housewives’ Compliance In Reading Food Labels In Gorontalo City, Imran Tumenggung, Lucky Herawati, Sofyawati Talibo

Kesmas

Di Indonesia, masalah label pada kemasan makanan kurang mendapat perhatian konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari determinan kepatuhan membaca label pada kemasan makanan oleh ibu rumah tangga di Kota Gorontalo. Penelitian dengan metode survei ini dilakukan dari bulan Juni sampai Agustus 2013. Data dikumpulkan secara potong lintang dengan menggunakan angket. Variabel terikat adalah kepatuhan membaca label pada kemasan makanan yang terdiri dari label informasi nilai gizi, komposisi makanan, masa kedaluwarsa, harga, dan status halal. Variabel bebas adalah usia, tingkat pendidikan, dan keterpaparan dengan media informasi. Besar sampel 262 orang ditentukan secara accidental technique. Analisis data menggunakan uji kai kuadrat. Hasil …

Husband’S Support Towards Unmet Need Of Hiv Positive-Infected Women Of Childbearing Age, Sophia Sophia, Anita Deborah Anwar, Bony Wiem Lestari

Kesmas

Jutaan wanita usia subur (WUS) dengan HIV positif di negara berkembang saat ini tidak menggunakan kontrasepsi untuk menunda atau mengakhiri kehamilan. Pencegahan kehamilan yang tidak diinginkan pada WUS dengan HIV positif sangat penting untuk meningkatkan kualitas hidup ibu dan anak. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap unmet need pada WUS dengan HIV positif. Metode penelitian adalah cross sectional dengan sampel berjumlah 130 WUS dengan HIV positif yang diambil secara consecutive sampling. Penelitian dilakukan pada 24 Maret - 30 Juni 2015 di Klinik Mawar Kota Bandung. Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui wawancara dengan menggunakan kuesioner, kemudian data dianalisis dengan …

Impact Of Husband’S Participation In Antenatal Care On The Use Of Skilled Birth Attendant, Febri Wicaksono

Kesmas

Pendekatan alternatif diperlukan untuk mengatasi persoalan kesehatan reproduksi, salah satunya dengan meningkatkan partisipasi laki-laki pada kesehatan reproduksi perempuan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menelusuri dampak partisipasi suami dalam pelayanan antenatal pada penggunaan tenaga persalinan terlatih setelah mengontrol karakteristik sosial demografi. Sampel sebanyak 4.000 perempuan berusia 15 – 49 tahun yang memiliki persalinan terakhir pada tahun lalu sebelum survei diambil dari Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012. Penelitian menggunakan model regresi logistik biner untuk mengidentifikasi dampak partisipasi suami dalam pelayanan antenatal pada penggunaan tenaga persalinan terlatih setelah mengontrol karakteristik ibu dan sosial demografi. Peluang setelah mengontrol faktor lainnya mengindikasikan perempuan yang …

The Effect Of Structured Counseling Towards Knowledge, Attitude, And Participation Of Modern Contraceptive Among Unmet Need Couples, Herlina Simanjuntak, Bony Wiem Lestari, Anita Debora Anwar

Kesmas

Unmet need Keluarga Berencana (KB) masih tinggi di negara berkembang termasuk di Indonesia. Konseling kontrasepsi terstruktur berpotensi meningkatkan penggunaan kontrasepsi secara efektif, menjaga keberlangsungan penggunaan dan meningkatkan kepuasan klien. Selama ini seling kontrasepsi yang dilakukan belum optimal, sehingga penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh konseling terstruktur terhadap peningkatan pengetahuan, sikap dan partisipasi kontrasepsi modern pada pasangan usia subur (PUS) yang unmet need. Penelitian ini merupakan eksperimen semu dengan rancangan pretest-posttest dengan kelompok kontrol. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada periode Maret – Juni 2015. Pengambilan sampel dilakukan dengan stratified random sampling pada 48 orang untuk kelompok perlakuan (konseling terstruktur) dan 48 orang …

Time Dependent Kernel Density Estimation: A New Parameter Estimation Algorithm, Applications In Time Series Classification And Clustering, Xing Wang

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Time Dependent Kernel Density Estimation (TDKDE) developed by Harvey & Oryshchenko (2012) is a kernel density estimation adjusted by the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) weighting scheme. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) procedure for estimating the parameters proposed by Harvey & Oryshchenko (2012) is easy to apply but has two inherent problems. In this study, we evaluate the performances of the probability density estimation in terms of the uniformity of Probability Integral Transforms (PITs) on various kernel functions combined with different preset numbers. Furthermore, we develop a new estimation algorithm which can be conducted using Artificial Neural Networks to …

Homeolog Specific Expression Bias, Ronald D. Smith

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Heterogeneous Responses To Viral Infection: Insights From Mathematical Modeling Of Yellow Fever Vaccine, James R. Moore

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Elements Of The Mathematical Formulation Of Quantum Mechanics, Keunjae Go

Senior Honors Papers / Undergraduate Theses

In this paper, we will explore some of the basic elements of the mathematical formulation of quantum mechanics. In the first section, I will list the motivations for introducing a probability model that is quite different from that of the classical probability theory, but still shares quite a few significant commonalities. Later in the paper, I will discuss the quantum probability theory in detail, while paying a brief attention to some of the axioms (by Birkhoff and von Neumann) that illustrate both the commonalities and differences between classical mechanics and quantum mechanics. This paper will end with a presentation of …

Directed Energy Missions For Planetary Defense, Philip Lubin, Gary Hughes, Mike Eskenazi, Kelly Kosmo, Isabella Johansson, Janelle Griswold, Mark Pryor, Hugh O'Neill, Peter Meinhold, Johnathan Suen, Jordan Riley, Qicheng Zhang, Kevin Walsh, Carl Melis, Miikka Kangas, Caio Motta, Travis Brashears

Statistics

Directed energy for planetary defense is now a viable option and is superior in many ways to other proposed technologies, being able to defend the Earth against all known threats. This paper presents basic ideas behind a directed energy planetary defense system that utilizes laser ablation of an asteroid to impart a deflecting force on the target. A conceptual philosophy called DE-STAR, which stands for Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploration, is an orbiting stand-off system, which has been described in other papers. This paper describes a smaller, stand-on system known as DE-STARLITE as a reduced-scale version …

Quantifying Transit Access In New York City: Formulating An Accessibility Index For Analyzing Spatial And Social Patterns Of Public Transportation, Maxwell S. Siegel

Theses and Dissertations

This paper aims to analyze accessibility within New York City’s transportation system through creating unique accessibility indices. Indices are detailed and implemented using GIS, analyzing the distribution of transit need and access. Regression analyses are performed highlighting relationships between demographics and accessibility and recommendations for transit expansion are presented.

Facets: Allele-Specific Copy Number And Clonal Heterogeneity Analysis Tool Estimates For High-Throughput Dna Sequencing, Ronglai Shen, Venkatraman Seshan

Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Dept. of Epidemiology & Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Allele-specific copy number analysis (ASCN) from next generation sequenc- ing (NGS) data can greatly extend the utility of NGS beyond the iden- tification of mutations to precisely annotate the genome for the detection of homozygous/heterozygous deletions, copy-neutral loss-of-heterozygosity (LOH), allele-specific gains/amplifications. In addition, as targeted gene panels are increasingly used in clinical sequencing studies for the detection of “actionable” mutations and copy number alterations to guide treatment decisions, accurate, tumor purity-, ploidy-, and clonal heterogeneity-adjusted integer copy number calls are greatly needed to more reliably interpret NGS- based cancer gene copy number data in the context of clinical sequencing. We …

Gaiseing Into The New Guidelines, Robert Carver, Megan Mocko, Jeffrey Witmer, Beverly Wood

Publications

The first GAISE College Report came out in 2005. Over the past ten years our discipline has changed in many ways, including but not limited to what type of data is easily available, the technology that we use, as well as how we teach students. In this presentation we will briefly start with how the new GAISE 2016 guidelines and goals have changed, including the two new emphases of statistical thinking: giving students experience with multivariable thinking and with the investigative process. So how do you start to implement these new ideas? In this presentation, we will demonstrate an activity …

Distributed Target Tracking And Synchronization In Wireless Sensor Networks, Jichuan Li

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Wireless sensor networks provide useful information for various applications but pose challenges in scalable information processing and network maintenance. This dissertation focuses on statistical methods for distributed information fusion and sensor synchronization for target tracking in wireless sensor networks.

We perform target tracking using particle filtering. For scalability, we extend centralized particle filtering to distributed particle filtering via distributed fusion of local estimates provided by individual sensors. We derive a distributed fusion rule from Bayes' theorem and implement it via average consensus. We approximate each local estimate as a Gaussian mixture and develop a sampling-based approach to the nonlinear fusion …

Examining Cost Functionality And Optimization: A Case Study On Testing The Reasonableness Of New Aircraft Using Historical Aircraft Data, Katherine Jozefiak

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

When pursuing business by competing for government contracts, proving the submitted price is reasonable is often required. This proof is called a test of reasonableness. This study analyzes data from historical aircraft programs in relation of a new aircraft program in order to demonstrate the estimated cost of the new program is reasonable. The purpose of this study is to investigate three questions. Is the new program cost reasonable using current industry and government parameters? Is it better to look at programs from a total cost perspective or break the total cost into subcategory levels? Finally, this study applies a …

Spot Volatility Estimation Of Ito Semimartingales Using Delta Sequences, Weixuan Gao

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

This thesis studies a unifying class of nonparametric spot volatility estimators proposed by Mancini et. al.(2013). This method is based on delta sequences and is conceived to include many of the existing estimators in the field as special cases. The thesis first surveys the asymptotic theory of the proposed estimators under an infill asymptotic scheme and fixed time horizon, when the state variable follows a Brownian semimartingale. Then, some extensions to include jumps and financial microstructure noise in the observed price process are also presented. The main goal of the thesis is to assess the suitability of the proposed methods …

Lead Poisoning In United States Children, Zeren Zhou

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

We investigate factors related to blood lead levels of children ages 1 to 5 in the United States for the years 2007-2014. We use data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The goal is to explore predictors of lead in childrens' blood and to develop a multivariate model using as many predictors as possible. The analysis is conducted using SAS survey regression procedures that account for weighting, stratification, and clustering of the data.

Heart Failure Outcomes With Empagliflozin In Patients With Type 2 Diabetes At High Cardiovascular Risk: Results Of The Empa-Reg Outcome® Trial., David Fitchett, Bernard Zinman, Christoph Wanner, John M. Lachin, Stefan Hantel, Afshin Salsali, Odd Erik Johansen, Hans J Woerle, Uli C Broedl, Silvio E Inzucchi

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

AIMS: We previously reported that in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME(®) trial, empagliflozin added to standard of care reduced the risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, cardiovascular and all-cause death, and hospitalization for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. We have now further investigated heart failure outcomes in all patients and in subgroups, including patients with or without baseline heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were randomized to receive empagliflozin 10 mg, empagliflozin 25 mg, or placebo. Seven thousand and twenty patients were treated; 706 (10.1%) had heart failure at baseline. Heart failure hospitalization or …

Failure Of Surface Color Cues Under Natural Changes In Lighting, David H. Foster, Iván Marín-Franch

MODVIS Workshop

Color allows us to effortlessly discriminate and identify surfaces and objects by their reflected light. Although the reflected spectrum changes with the illumination spectrum, cone photoreceptor signals can be transformed to give useful cues for surface color. But what happens when both the spectrum and the geometry of the illumination change, as with lighting from the sun and sky? Is it possible, as a matter of principle, to obtain reliable cues by processing cone signals alone? This question was addressed here by estimating the information provided by cone signals from time-lapse hyperspectral radiance images of five outdoor scenes under natural …

Automated Sea State Classification From Parameterization Of Survey Observations And Wave-Generated Displacement Data, Jason A. Teichman

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Sea state is a subjective quantity whose accuracy depends on an observer’s ability to translate local wind waves into numerical scales. It provides an analytical tool for estimating the impact of the sea on data quality and operational safety. Tasks dependent on the characteristics of local sea surface conditions often require accurate and immediate assessment. An attempt to automate sea state classification using eleven years of ship motion and sea state observation data is made using parametric modeling of distribution-based confidence and tolerance intervals and a probabilistic model using sea state frequencies. Models utilizing distribution intervals are not able to …