Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Public Health-Based Approach To German Gaming Regulation, Knut Walter, Gerhard Buehringer

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The current situation of the German gambling market can be characterized by an unrelated framework of different legal systems, different regulatory authorities and different control principles, and has led to (1) an increasing number of court decisions and information requests by European Commission questioning parts of that regulatory system, (2) public tolerance of illicit gambling, and consequently (3) a lack of consumer protection.

Taking RENO Model 1.0 and 2.0 seriously, a new and comprehensive regulatory framework based on common consumer protection standards for all types of gambling – land-based and online, state-owned and private operated – has been developed and …

A Behavioural Account Of Mobile Gambling, Richard James, Richard Tunney, Claire O'Malley

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Mobile gambling is an emerging market in which there is evidence that some gamblers are introduced to gambling through their mobile device, and that mobile gambling does not ‘cannibalise’ participation with other forms of gambling. There is a concern that mobile gamblers face distinct risks from other forms of gambling, particularly for harmful behaviours. This paper presentation outlines a behavioural account of mobile gambling that combines both the learned characteristics of problem gambling with how individuals interact with their mobile devices. This hypothesizes that the extended gaps between plays or sessions potentially attracts extended play, even in the face of …

Ready, Set, And Go Back: The Role Of The Judiciary In Brazil’S Bingo Ban, Luiza Jobim Llm, Toni Williams

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Brazil, the host of the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, is known for strong competitive traditions in sports and games. It is also one of only three G-20 countries (together with Saudi Arabia and Indonesia) that currently bans non-state provision of gambling products. Bingo was a notable exception to this prohibition, after enabling legislation was enacted in 1993, with the intention that proceeds would help fund national sports development. The game quickly became very popular but there were persistent questions about, and contestations over, the capacity of the regulatory framework to control the dual risks of exploitation of …

The Future Of Gambling Spaces: Esports And The World Of Competitive Video Gaming, Brett Abarbanel, Bryce Blum, Chris Grove, Carson Knuth, Seth Schorr, Rahul Sood

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

eSports, or competitive video gaming, are a rapidly developing segment of sport and gaming. eSports are a unique cultural and economic phenomenon, and only recently is this nascent industry garnering substantial attention from gambling operators, regulators, and researchers. In 2015, an estimated quarter of a billion dollars will be wagered on eSports, a number projected to grow to $23 billion by 2020 (Eilers Research, 2015).

This panel presentation will provide a general overview of eSports, including some background on the industry, a description of the market and general business model, information about the gambling opportunities within eSports, sponsorship opportunities and …

Profiling At-Risk Gamblers, Tapio Jaakkola, Kari Vuorinen, Mirka Smolej

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The majority of gambling research has been concentrating on problem gambling and on the association between gambling behavior, game design and gambling harm. Much less attention has been directed at recreational gambling or on players that do not suffer from any gambling related problems. However, when it comes to preventing gambling harm we should also target those at risk as well those who are gambling moderately.

As a part of a project on prevention of adult gambling harm we did a study of at-risk gamblers in order to recognize and to define the socio-economic background of our target group. Prior …

Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.

This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …

Estimating The Fraction Of The Kelly Bet, William Chin, Marc Ingenoso

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well known that an advantage gambler maximizes the average geometric growth rate by using Kelly betting. If the advantage is known precisely, then one can to use Full Kelly betting or, more commonly, some fraction of it. Systematic gamblers may have an advantage, but may not know exactly how large it is. This may be the case for e.g. sports bettors, blackjack and poker players and future traders. We show how they can estimate the fraction of full Kelly they have been employing, from their past results. This ongoing process enables them to select future bet sizing scientifically …

Measuring Market Saturation In The U.S. Casino Industry: An Analytical And Empirical Analysis, Clyde W. Barrow, Alan P. Meister, David R. Borges

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The national and regional economies in the U.S. remain on a slow growth trajectory, while the casino gaming industry has seen a rapid and ongoing expansion. Consequently, states, Native American tribes, and gaming operators have increasingly shifted their attention from gaming expansion to the problems of regional competition, cannibalization, market maturation, and market saturation. The question of “market saturation” has become a salient point of public policy debate and a topic that is now frequently raised in the industry and media. This paper analyzes the concept of saturation in the context of casino gaming markets and compares several metrics for …

Optimizing The Mix Of Games And Their Locations On The Casino Floor, Jason D. Fiege, Anastasia D. Baran

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

We present a mathematical framework and computational approach that aims to optimize the mix and locations of slot machine types and denominations, plus other games to maximize the overall performance of the gaming floor. This problem belongs to a larger class of spatial resource optimization problems, concerned with optimizing the allocation and spatial distribution of finite resources, subject to various constraints. We introduce a powerful multi-objective evolutionary optimization and data-modelling platform, developed by the presenter since 2002, and show how this software can be used for casino floor optimization. We begin by extending a linear formulation of the casino floor …

A New Variant Of Baccarat For Vip Players, Stewart N. Ethier, Jiyeon Lee

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In 2013 baccarat generated over US$41 billion in revenue for the 35 casinos of Macau, of which nearly US$30 billion was attributed to VIP players (high-stakes gamblers). Although the VIP market segment has declined over the past two years, it is still substantial. In this talk we propose a new variant of baccarat that will appeal to and attract VIP players. Its appeal lies in the facts that (a) it has a historical connection to baccarat and (b) it is closer to a fair game than is baccarat.

An Analysis Of The Disadvantage To Players Of Multiple Decks In The Game Of 21, Leslie M. Golden

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Players of blackjack recognize that their probabilities of winning are reduced by the casino use of multiple decks in the deck pack as a counter-measure to blackjack card counting systems. When playing blackjack with a deck pack composed of multiple 52-card decks compared to when playing in single-deck or double-deck games, players experience frequency, magnitude, and depth effects: 1) The deck becomes favorable less frequently at all depths, 2) when the deck does becomes favorable, the magnitude of the advantage is not as great, 3) all decks are favorable infrequently until a significant portion of the deck has been dealt …

A New System For Roulette Based On The Physics Of The Roulette Wheel, Leslie M. Golden

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Previous systems proposed for the casino game of roulette depend either on a bias resulting from poorly manufactured wheels or rigging of the wheel, or classical bet management. The former no longer are viable, the result of casino operators monitoring over many trials the pockets into which the roulette ball comes to rest, accurate manufacturing, and regulation. The latter have never been viable, roulette being a game of sampling with replacement. On the other hand, both theoretical and laboratory studies of the physics of the roulette ball trajectory have recently shown that a wheel placed on the floor with arbitrarily …

Mapping Morels: Predicting The Locations Of Morchella Species Through Environmental Factors Using The Gis System, Emily M. Stanevicius

Celebration of Learning

Morel mushrooms, Morechella esculenta and M. deliciosa, are known delicacies across the globe, ranging from exquisite dishes in French cuisine to Eastern palates such as Japanese Matsutake. According to literature, true morels diverged as their own genus about 129 million years, again which has led to the development of more than 177 species and have been part of the human diet since their beginning. However, the elusiveness of morels has contributed to the mushrooms infamy for rarity, and has even been known to sell for more than $40 per pound. This project seeks to aid in the search for morels …

Statistical Analysis And Modeling Health Data: A Longitudinal Study, Bhikhari Prasad Tharu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Lung cancer has been considered one of the leading causes of deaths while cancer re- mains the second most common cause of deaths in the USA. Understanding the behavior of a disease over time could yield important information to make decisions about the disease. Statistical models could provide crucial clues and help to make a decision about the dis- ease, budget allocation, evaluation, and implement prevention. Longitudinal trend analysis of the diseases helps to understand long term effects and nature. Cholesterol level is one of the most contributing risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease. Studying cholesterol statistically helps to know …

Gambling Problems In The General Danish Population: Survey Evidence, Morten Lau, Don Ross

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

We develop surveys of gambling problems in the general Danish population. We compare several popular survey instruments of gambling behavior and gambling propensity to assess if they differ in their classification of individuals. We also examine correlations with standard survey instruments for alcohol use, anxiety, depression and impulsiveness. A feature of our design is that nobody was excluded on the basis of their response to a “trigger,” “gateway” or “diagnostic item” question about previous gambling history, allowing us to check for sample selection bias. Our sample consists of 8,405 adult Danes, which is 12.8% of the sample frame of 65,592 …

Generational Differences In Gambling Behavior And Attitudes, Don Feeney, Todd Maki

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The five generations that make up the adult population of North America and Europe differ greatly in their gambling behavior and their beliefs and attitudes towards gambling. This presentation will discuss data that demonstrate the extent of these differences as well as the cultural background and formative experiences that led to them. It will conclude with a discussion of implications for the gambling industry, responsible gambling, public policy, and for those concerned with the prevention and treatment of gambling problems.

Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker …

Stationary And Time-Dependent Optimization Of The Casino Floor Slot Machine Mix, Anastasia D. Baran, Jason D. Fiege

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Modeling and optimizing the performance of a mix of slot machines on a gaming floor can be addressed at various levels of coarseness, and may or may not consider time-dependent trends. For example, a model might consider only time-averaged, aggregate data for all machines of a given type; time-dependent aggregate data; time-averaged data for individual machines; or fully time dependent data for individual machines. Fine-grained, time-dependent data for individual machines offers the most potential for detailed analysis and improvements to the casino floor performance, but also suffers the greatest amount of statistical noise. We present a theoretical analysis of single …

Psychiatric Comorbidities In Gambling And The Clubsnsw Chaplaincy Program (Australia), Melanie Hartmann, Alex Blaszczynski, Rowan Cameron

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A recent systematic review of population studies conducted over the last 12 years indicated that 57.5% of individuals meeting criteria for a gambling disorder have a comorbid substance use disorder, 60.1% a nicotine dependence, 57.5% a mood disorder, and 37.4%, any anxiety disorder. In a proportion of these, the comorbid condition predates the onset of gambling disorders suggesting these might represent a vulnerability factor. These findings suggest important implications for gambling prevention and treatments. Instead of promoting only gambling specific interventions and treatments, the emphasis needs to be on a more holistic approach that includes screening for and treating comorbid …

Privacy-Preserving Data Mining On Hospitality Big Data, Mandana Bozorgi, Yoohwan Kim

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In this paper we present a summary of our activity associated with the security and encryption the big data on the hotels big data. We give a brief introduction to some techniques for security the data set in large scale, we then look into the homomorphism and Map Reduce environment. With the advances in computer architecture and silicon technology, processing large data set becomes possible after some fundamental data storage and processing algorithm been proposed and implemented. Analyzing the big data opened many opportunities for scientists in different research and application areas. Hospitality industry, for example, collects and keeps customers …

Responsible Gaming Certification Standards, Dietmar Hoscher

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The European Casino Association (ECA) is representing the licensed European Casino industry in Brussels. It represents some 900 casinos form 24 European countires which employ around 70.000 staff.

In 2013 the ECA launched a project among its members concerning Responsible Gaming. A Working Group headed by Prof. Hoscher a Board Mamber of Casinos Austria AG was formed. The members where Resposnible Gaming Experts fom the different companies and associations within the ECA network.

The working group established a Responsible Gaming Framework that represents a collection of measures to presevent gambling addictions and identify vulonerable persons. The collection of measures are …

The Economics Of Lotto, Ian Walker, Robert E. Pryce, Rhys Wheeler, Nick Powdathvee

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

No abstract provided.

Stochastic Processes And Their Applications To Change Point Detection Problems, Heng Yang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation addresses the change point detection problem when either the post-change distribution has uncertainty or the post-change distribution is time inhomogeneous. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, attention is drawn to the construction of a family of composite stopping times. It is shown that the proposed composite stopping time has third order optimality in the detection problem with Wiener observations and also provides information to distinguish the different values of post-change drift. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, a computationally efficient decision rule with low-complexity based on Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm is also introduced. In the time …

Statistical Modeling Of Carbon Dioxide And Cluster Analysis Of Time Dependent Information: Lag Target Time Series Clustering, Multi-Factor Time Series Clustering, And Multi-Level Time Series Clustering, Doo Young Kim

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The current study consists of three major parts. Statistical modeling, the connection between statistical modeling and cluster analysis, and proposing new methods to cluster time dependent information.

First, we perform a statistical modeling of the Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) emission in South Korea in order to identify the attributable variables including interaction effects. One of the hot issues in the earth in 21st century is Global warming which is caused by the marriage between atmospheric temperature and CO₂ in the atmosphere. When we confront this global problem, we first need to verify what causes the problem then we …

Putting Prep Into Practice: Lessons Learned From Early-Adopting U.S. Providers' Firsthand Experiences Providing Hiv Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis And Associated Care, S. K. Calabrese, Manya Magnus, K. H. Mayer, D. S. Krakower, A. I. Eldahan, L. A. Gaston Hawkins, +5 Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Optimizing access to HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), an evidence-based HIV prevention resource, requires expanding healthcare providers' adoption of PrEP into clinical practice. This qualitative study explored PrEP providers' firsthand experiences relative to six commonly-cited barriers to prescription-financial coverage, implementation logistics, eligibility determination, adherence concerns, side effects, and anticipated behavior change (risk compensation)-as well as their recommendations for training PrEP-inexperienced providers. U.S.-based PrEP providers were recruited via direct outreach and referral from colleagues and other participants (2014-2015). One-on-one interviews were conducted in person or by phone, transcribed, and analyzed. The sample (n = 18) primarily practiced in the Northeastern (67%) or …

The Importance Of Prediction Model Validation And Assessment In Obesity And Nutrition Research, Andrada Ivanescu, P. Li, B. George, A. W. Brown, S. W. Keith, D. Raju, D. B. Allison

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Deriving statistical models to predict one variable from one or more other variables, or predictive modeling, is an important activity in obesity and nutrition research. To determine the quality of the model, it is necessary to quantify and report the predictive validity of the derived models. Conducting validation of the predictive measures provides essential information to the research community about the model. Unfortunately, many articles fail to account for the nearly inevitable reduction in predictive ability that occurs when a model derived on one data set is applied to a new data set. Under some circumstances, the predictive validity can …

Treatment With Actriib-Mfc Produces Myofiber Growth And Improves Lifespan In The Acta1 H40y Murine Model Of Nemaline Myopathy, Jennifer E. Tinklenberg, Hui W. Meng, Lin J. Yang, Fujun Liu, Raymond G. Hoffmann, Mahua Dasgupta, Kenneth P. Allen, Alan H. Beggs, Edna C. Hardeman, R. Scott Pearsall, Robert H. Fitts, Michael W. Lawlor

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

Partner Interfering Behaviors Affecting Cancer Quality Of Life, Ann L. Coker, Diane R. Follingstad, Lisandra S. Garcia, Heather M. Bush

Obstetrics and Gynecology Faculty Publications

Objective: Because partners are an important and unpaid resource in cancer care, understanding how destructive, controlling or interfering partner behaviors influence women's cancer care may be particularly relevant for health care providers seeking to provide cancer care and enhance recovery. Using a new measure of partner interfering behaviors in cancer care (PIB-C), we investigated whether women with a recent cancer diagnosis who additionally endorsed any PIB-C would report (a) more symptoms of depression and stress, and (b) lower Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT-G) and lower Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual Well-being (FACIT-SP) scale scores indicating poorer quality of …

Splash Dynamics Of Paint On Dry, Wet, And Cooled Surfaces, David Baron, Haiyan Su, Ashuwin Vaidya

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In his classic study in 1908, A.M. Worthington gave a thorough account of splashes and their formation through visualization experiments. In more recent times, there has been renewed interest in this subject, and much of the underlying physics behind Worthington's experiments has now been clarified. One specific set of such recent studies, which motivates this paper, concerns the fluid dynamics behind Jackson Pollock's drip paintings. The physical processes and the mathematical structures hidden in his works have received serious attention and made the scientific pursuit of art a compelling area of exploration. Our current work explores the interaction of watercolors …

Enhancement Of Heat Transfer In Elastico-Viscous Fluid Due To Nanoparticles, Where The Fluid Is Impinging Obliquely To The Stretchable Surface: A Numerical Study, Tariq Javed, Abuzar Ghaffari, Tasawar Hayat

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

This article addresses the two-dimensional oblique stagnation point flow of non-Newtonian fluid in the presence of nanoparticles. Constitutive equations of Walter-B fluid are employed in the mathematical development of the relevant problems. Mathematical formulation includes the Brownian motion and thermophoresis effects. The resulting nonlinear system of equations are analyzed through Chebyshev Spectral Newton Iterative Scheme (CSNIS). A comparative study of present results through tabular values has been made with the previous results in a limiting sense and an excellent agreement is noted. It is also found that in near stagnation point region, the heat transfer rate and mass diffusion flux …