Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Neighborhood Environment And Falls Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults, Emily Joy Nicklett, Matthew C. Lohman Ph.D., Matthew Lee Smith

Faculty Publications

Background: Falls present a major challenge to active aging, but the relationship between neighborhood factors and falls is poorly understood. This study examined the relationship between fall events and neighborhood factors, including neighborhood social cohesion (sense of belonging, trust, friendliness, and helpfulness) and physical environment (vandalism/graffiti, rubbish, vacant/deserted houses, and perceived safety walking home at night). Methods: Data were analyzed from 9259 participants over four biennial waves (2006–2012) of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative sample of adults aged 65 and older in the United States. Results: In models adjusting for demographic and health-related covariates, a one-unit …

Inflammatory Properties Of Diet And Glucose-Insulin Homeostasis In A Cohort Of Iranian Adults, Nazanin Moslehi, Behnaz Ehsani, Parvin Mirmiran, Nitin Shivappa, Maryam Tohidi, James R. Hébert, Fereidoun Azizi

Faculty Publications

We aimed to investigate associations of the dietary inflammatory index (DII) with glucose-insulin homeostasis markers, and the risk of glucose intolerance. This cross-sectional study included 2975 adults from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h post-load glucose (2h-PG), and fasting serum insulin were measured. Homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR) and β-cell function (HOMA-B), and the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) were calculated. Glucose tolerance abnormalities included impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). DII scores were positively associated with 2h-PG (β = 0.04; p = 0.05). …

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

Unequal A Priori Probability Multiple Hypothesis Testing In Space Domain Awareness With The Space Surveillance Telescope, Tyler J. Hardy, Stephen C. Cain, Travis F. Blake

Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the ability to improve Space Domain Awareness (SDA) by increasing the number of detectable Resident Space Objects (RSOs) from space surveillance sensors. With matched filter based techniques, the expected impulse response, or Point Spread Function (PSF), is compared against the received data. In the situation where the images are spatially undersampled, the modeled PSF may not match the received data if the RSO does not fall in the center of the pixel. This aliasing can be accounted for with a Multiple Hypothesis Test (MHT). Previously, proposed MHTs have implemented a test with an equal a priori prior …

Case-Oriented Pathways Analysis In Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Using Data From A Sleeping Beauty Transposon Mutagenesis Screen, Yen Yi Ho, Timothy K. Starr, Rebecca S. Larue, David A. Largaespada

Faculty Publications

Background: Mutation studies of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) have revealed complicated heterogeneous genomic landscapes of the disease. These studies cataloged a number of genes mutated at high frequencies, but also report a very large number of genes mutated in lower percentages of tumors. Taking advantage of a well-established forward genetic screening technique, with the Sleeping Beauty (SB) transposon, several studies produced PDA and discovered a number of common insertion sites (CIS) and associated genes that are recurrently mutated at high frequencies. As with human mutation studies, a very large number of genes were found to be altered by transposon insertion …

A Recommendation System For Meta-Modeling: A Meta-Learning Based Approach, Can Cui, Mengqi Hu, Jeffery D. Weir, Teresa Wu

Faculty Publications

Various meta-modeling techniques have been developed to replace computationally expensive simulation models. The performance of these meta-modeling techniques on different models is varied which makes existing model selection/recommendation approaches (e.g., trial-and-error, ensemble) problematic. To address these research gaps, we propose a general meta-modeling recommendation system using meta-learning which can automate the meta-modeling recommendation process by intelligently adapting the learning bias to problem characterizations. The proposed intelligent recommendation system includes four modules: (1) problem module, (2) meta-feature module which includes a comprehensive set of meta-features to characterize the geometrical properties of problems, (3) meta-learner module which compares the performance of instance-based …

Modeled And Measured Image-Plane Polychromatic Speckle Contrast, Noah R. Van Zandt, Jack E. Mccrae, Steven T. Fiorino

Faculty Publications

The statistical properties of speckle relevant to short- to medium-range (tactical) active tracking involving polychromatic illumination are investigated. A numerical model is developed to allow rapid simulation of speckled images including the speckle contrast reduction effects of illuminator bandwidth, surface slope, and roughness, and the polarization properties of both the source and the reflection. Regarding surface slope (relative orientation of the surface normal and illumination/observation directions), Huntley’s theory for speckle contrast, which employs geometrical approximations to decrease computation time, is modified to increase accuracy by incorporation of a geometrical correction factor and better treatment of roughness and polarization. The resulting …

Powerful Association Test Combining Rare Variant And Gene Expression Using Family Data From Genetic Analysis Workshop 19, Yen Yi Ho, Weihua Guan, Michael O'Connell, Saonli Basu

Faculty Publications

Background: Genetic association studies aim to test for disease or trait association with genetic variants, either throughout the human genome or in regions of interest. However, for most diseases and traits, the combined effects of associated genetic variants explain only a small proportion of the genetic variation. This "missing heritability" may be a result of the small effects of common variants considered in the genetic association studies. Rare variants may also play an important role in understanding the missing heritability of complex traits. Method: We propose a novel weight-adjustment approach to combine gene expression into rare variant analysis. Results from …

Association Between Nutritional Awareness And Diet Quality: Evidence From The Observation Of Cardiovascular Risk Factors In Luxembourg (Oriscav-Lux) Study, Ala'a Alkerwi, Nicolas Sauvageot, Leoné Malan, Nitin Shivappa, James R. Hébert

Faculty Publications

This study examined the association between nutritional awareness and diet quality, as indicated by energy density, dietary diversity and adequacy to achieve dietary recommendations, while considering the potentially important role of socioeconomic status (SES). Data were derived from 1351 subjects, aged 18–69 years and enrolled in the ORISCAV-LUX study. Energy density score (EDS), dietary diversity score (DDS) and Recommendation Compliance Index (RCI) were calculated based on data derived from a food frequency questionnaire. Nutritional awareness was defined as self-perception of the importance assigned to eating balanced meals, and classified as high, moderate, or of little importance. Initially, a General Linear …

The Candidate Cancer Gene Database: A Database Of Cancer Driver Genes From Forward Genetic Screens In Mice, Kenneth L. Abbott, Erik T. Nyre, Juan Abrahante, Yen Yi Ho, Rachel Isaksson Vogel, Timothy K. Starr

Faculty Publications

Identification of cancer driver gene mutations is crucial for advancing cancer therapeutics. Due to the overwhelming number of passenger mutations in the human tumor genome, it is difficult to pinpoint causative driver genes. Using transposon mutagenesis in mice many laboratories have conducted forward genetic screens and identified thousands of candidate driver genes that are highly relevant to human cancer. Unfortunately, this information is difficult to access and utilize because it is scattered across multiple publications using different mouse genome builds and strength metrics. To improve access to these findings and facilitate metaanalyses, we developed the Candidate Cancer Gene Database (CCGD, …

Taming The Hurricane Of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It, Allen J. Deneve, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Christine M. Schubert Kabban

Faculty Publications

Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in …

An Efficient Algorithm To Explore Liquid Association On A Genome-Wide Scale, Tina Gunderson, Yen Yi Ho

Faculty Publications

Background: The growing wealth of public available gene expression data has made the systemic studies of how genes interact in a cell become more feasible. Liquid association (LA) describes the extent to which coexpression of two genes may vary based on the expression level of a third gene (the controller gene). However, genome-wide application has been difficult and resource-intensive. We propose a new screening algorithm for more efficient processing of LA estimation on a genome-wide scale and apply its use to a data set. Results: On a test subset of the data, the fast screening algorithm achieved >99.8 agreement with …

Socioeconomic And Demographic Factors Modify The Association Between Informal Caregiving And Health In The Sandwich Generation, Elizabeth K. Do, Steven A. Cohen, Monique J. Brown Ph.D., Mph

Faculty Publications

Background

Nearly 50 million Americans provide informal care to an older relative or friend. Many are members of the “sandwich generation”, providing care for elderly parents and children simultaneously. Although evidence suggests that the negative health consequences of caregiving are more severe for sandwiched caregivers, little is known about how these associations vary by sociodemographic factors.

Methods

We abstracted data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to determine how the association between caregiving and health varies by sociodemographic factors, using ordinal logistic regression with interaction terms and stratification by number of children, income, and race/ethnicity.

Results

The association between …

Modular Network Construction Using Eqtl Data: An Analysis Of Computational Costs And Benefits, Yen Yi Ho, Leslie M. Cope, Giovanni Parmigiani

Faculty Publications

Background: In this paper, we consider analytic methods for the integrated analysis of genomic DNA variation and mRNA expression (also named as eQTL data), to discover genetic networks that are associated with a complex trait of interest. Our focus is the systematic evaluation of the trade-off between network size and network search efficiency in the construction of these networks. Results: We developed a modular approach to network construction, building from smaller networks to larger ones, thereby reducing the search space while including more variables in the analysis. The goal is achieving a lower computational cost while maintaining high confidence in …

Measuring Circuit Splits: A Cautionary Note, Aaron-Andrew P. Bruhl

Faculty Publications

A number of researchers have recently published new measures of the Supreme Court’s behavior in resolving conflicts in the lower courts. These new measures represent an improvement over prior, cruder approaches, but it turns out that measuring the Court’s resolutions of conflicts is surprisingly difficult. The aim of this methodological comment is to describe those difficulties and to establish several conclusions that follow from them. First, the new measures of the Court’s behavior are certainly imprecise and may reflect biased samples. Second, using the Supreme Court Database, which some studies rely on to assemble a dataset of cases resolving conflicts, …

Association Between Adverse Childhood Experiences And Diagnosis Of Cancer, Monique J. Brown, Leroy R. Thacker, Steven A. Cohen

Faculty Publications

Objective: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are linked to multiple adverse health outcomes. This study examined the association between ACEs and cancer diagnosis.

Methods: Data from the 2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey were used. The BRFSS is the largest ongoing telephone health survey, conducted in all US states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and provides data on a variety of health issues among the non-institutionalized adult population. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to derive components for ACEs. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to provide adjusted odds ratios (OR) and …

Half-Life Learning Curves In The Defense Acquisition Life Cycle, Adedeji B. Badiru

Faculty Publications

Learning curves are useful for assessing performance improvement due to the positive impact of learning. In recent years, the deleterious effects of forgetting have also been recognized. Workers experience forgetting or decline in performance over time. Consequently, contemporary learning curves have attempted to incorporate forgetting components into learning curves. An area of increasing interest is the study of how fast and how far the forgetting impact can influence overall performance. This article introduces the concept of half-life analysis of learning curves using the concept of growth and decay, with particular emphasis on applications in the defense acquisition process. The computational …

Copy Number Variants In Candidate Genes Are Genetic Modifiers Of Hirschsprung Disease, Qian Jiang, Yen Yi Ho, Li Hao, Courtney Nichols Berrios, Aravinda Chakravarti

Faculty Publications

Hirschsprung disease (HSCR) is a neurocristopathy characterized by absence of intramural ganglion cells along variable lengths of the gastrointestinal tract. The HSCR phenotype is highly variable with respect to gender, length of aganglionosis, familiality and the presence of additional anomalies. By molecular genetic analysis, a minimum of 11 neuro-developmental genes (RET, GDNF, NRTN, SOX10, EDNRB, EDN3, ECE1, ZFHX1B, PHOX2B, KIAA1279, TCF4) are known to harbor rare, high-penetrance mutations that confer a large risk to the bearer. In addition, two other genes (RET, NRG1) harbor common, low-penetrance polymorphisms that contribute only partially to risk and can act as genetic modifiers. To …

Tryptophan Degradation In Women With Breast Cancer: A Pilot Study, Debra E. Lyon, Jeanne M. Walter, Angela R. Starkwater, Christine M. Schubert, Nancy L. Mccain

Faculty Publications

Background: Altered tryptophan metabolism and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase activity are linked to cancer development and progression. In addition, these biological factors have been associated with the development and severity of neuropsychiatric syndromes, including major depressive disorder. However, this biological mechanism associated with both poor disease outcomes and adverse neuropsychiatric symptoms has received little attention in women with breast cancer. Therefore, a pilot study was undertaken to compare levels of tryptophan and other proteins involved in tryptophan degradation in women with breast cancer to women without cancer, and secondarily, to examine levels in women with breast cancer over the course of chemotherapy. …

Enhancing The Communication Competency Of Business Undergraduates: A Consumer Socialization Perspective, K. C. Gehrt, M. O'Brien, David Mease

Faculty Publications

Explaining how individuals acquire the necessary skills and knowledge to effectively participate in society is often accomplished through Socialization Theory. We investigate numerous socialization agents and their relationship with the communication competency of university business majors. Communication competency (reading, writing, and verbal) was measured via both a standardized skill test and self report. Exploratory analysis was conducted upon high and low communication competency groups that were identified via cluster analysis. Our findings generally indicate the most important socialization agents are via personal interactions whereas the least important socialization agents are influencing via primarily electronic or media-based methods.

Survival Analysis With High-Dimensional Covariates: An Application In Microarray Studies, David Engler, Yi Li

Faculty Publications

Use of microarray technology often leads to high-dimensional and low-sample size (HDLSS) data settings. A variety of approaches have been proposed for variable selection in this context. However, only a small number of these have been adapted for time-to-event data where censoring is present. Among standard variable selection methods shown both to have good predictive accuracy and to be computationally efficient is the elastic net penalization approach. In this paper, adaptations of the elastic net approach are presented for variable selection both under the Cox proportional hazards model and under an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Assessment of the two …

Maximizing Warfighter Capability Using Surveyed Necessity Measurement: Application To The Usaf F-15c Fleet, John M. Colombi, David R. Jacques, Dennis D. Strouble

Faculty Publications

Within the Department of Defense, with changing missions to counter dynamic and asymmetrical threats, the acquisition workforce strives to maximize capability for joint warfighting. How acquisition professionals measure and select capability improvements for the nation’s weapon systems is a perpetual challenge, made even more complex with constrained defense budgets. This study identifies a method for determining which upgrades should be purchased (production) for which aircraft in the F- 15C fleet by optimizing a capability proxy measure. Each upgrade’s “necessity” for a given mission area was obtained by conducting a survey of over 250 experienced F-15C pilots. The solution presented in …

Skill Evaluation In Women's Volleyball, Lindsay W. Florence, Gilbert W. Fellingham, Pat R. Vehrs, Nina P. Mortensen

Faculty Publications

The Brigham Young University Women's Volleyball Team recorded and rated all skills (pass, set, attack, etc.) and recorded rally outcomes (point for BYU, rally continues, point for opponent) for the entire 2006 home volleyball season. Only sequences of events occurring on BYU's side of the net were considered. Events followed one of these general patterns: serve-outcome, pass-set-attack-outcome, or block-dig-set-attack-outcome. These sequences of events were assumed to be first-order Markov chains where the quality of each contact depended only on the quality of the previous contact but not explicitly on contacts further removed in the sequence. We represented these sequences in …

Evidence Contrary To The Statistical View Of Boosting, David Mease, A. Wyner

Faculty Publications

The statistical perspective on boosting algorithms focuses on optimization, drawing parallels with maximum likelihood estimation for logistic regression. In this paper we present empirical evidence that raises questions about this view. Although the statistical perspective provides a theoretical framework within which it is possible to derive theorems and create new algorithms in general contexts, we show that there remain many unanswered important questions. Furthermore, we provide examples that reveal crucial flaws in the many practical suggestions and new methods that are derived from the statistical view. We perform carefully designed experiments using simple simulation models to illustrate some of these …

An Experimental Technique For The Evaluation Of Strain Dependent Material Properties Of Hard Coatings, Shad A. Reed, Anthony N. Palazotto, William P. Baker

Faculty Publications

A novel vibration experiment consisting of a free-free boundary condition, an electromagnetic excitation source, a vacuum chamber, and a laser vibrometer based surface measurement system has been developed that permits high levels of excitation on highly damped specimens with a minimal amount of unwanted systematic error. While some of the aspects of this experiment are not unique, when combined with a processing technique that accounts for the nonlinearities present in the system, this experiment permits, accurate measurement of strain dependent stiffness and damping properties of hard coatings at high strain levels. This procedure has been demonstrated using a titanium beam …

Using Box-Scores To Determine A Position's Contribution To Winning Basketball Games, Gilbert W. Fellingham, C. Shane Reese, Garritt L. Page

Faculty Publications

While it is generally recognized that the relative importance of different skills is not constant across different positions on a basketball team, quantification of the differences has not been well studied. 1163 box scores from games in the National Basketball Association during the 1996-97 season were used to study the relationship of skill performance by position and game outcome as measured by point differentials. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fit with individual players viewed as a draw from a population of players playing a particular position: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, center, and bench. Posterior distributions for …

Boosted Classification Trees And Class Probability/Quantile Estimation, David Mease, A. Wyner, A. Buja

Faculty Publications

The standard by which binary classifiers are usually judged, misclassification error, assumes equal costs of misclassifying the two classes or, equivalently, classifying at the 1/2 quantile of the conditional class probability function P[y = 1jx]. Boosted classification trees are known to perform quite well for such problems. In this article we consider the use of standard, off-the-shelf boosting for two more general problems: 1) classification with unequal costs or, equivalently, classification at quantiles other than 1/2, and 2) estimation of the conditional class probability function P[y = 1jx]. We first examine whether the latter problem, estimation of P[y = 1jx], …

Comment: Boosting Algorithms: Regularization, Prediction And Model Fitting, A. Buja, David Mease, A. Wyner

Faculty Publications

The authors are doing the readers of Statistical Science a true service with a well-written and up-to-date overview of boosting that originated with the seminal algorithms of Freund and Schapire. Equally, we are grateful for high-level software that will permit a larger readership to experiment with, or simply apply, boosting-inspired model fitting. The authors show us a world of methodology that illustrates how a fundamental innovation can penetrate every nook and cranny of statistical thinking and practice. They introduce the reader to one particular interpretation of boosting and then give a display of its potential with extensions from classification (where …

Dynamic Modeling And Statistical Analysis Of Event Times, Edsel A. Pena

Faculty Publications

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets making it different and more difficult to handle than single event settings. For instance, the impact of an increasing number of event occurrences needs to be taken into account, the effects of covariates should be considered, potential association among the interevent times within a unit cannot be ignored, and the effects of performed interventions after each event occurrence need to be factored in. A recent general class …

Impacts Of A Manure Composting Program On Stream Water Quality, A. Bekele, A. M.S. Mcfarland, A. J. Whisenant

Faculty Publications

In February 2001, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) adopted a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) along the North Bosque River. Within this TMDL, dairy waste application fields were identified as the major nonpoint-source contribution of nutrients. In September 2000, a manure composting program was initiated that resulted in about 500,000 metric tons of dairy manure being hauled to composting facilities and exported from the watershed through December 2004. To evaluate the impact of the manure composting program on stream water quality, storm event mean concentrations of nutrients and total suspended solids were compared …