Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Study Of Flight Simulation Training Time, Aircraft Training Time, And Pilot Competence As Measured By The Naval Standard Score, Aaron D. Judy

Doctor of Education (Ed.D)

The purpose of the study was to investigate the relationships between US Navy T-45C flight simulation training time, actual aircraft training time, and intermediate and advanced jet pilot competence as measured by the Naval Standard Score (NSS). Examining the relationships between US Navy T-45C flight simulation time and actual aircraft flight time may provide further information on flight simulation training versus actual aircraft training to aviation authorities, flight instructors, the military aviation community, the commercial aviation community, and academia. The study was non-experimental, correlational, causal-comparative with an emphasis upon the establishment of mathematic and predictive relationships using archival data from …

Self-Reported Risk And Delinquent Behavior And Problem Behavioral Intention In Hong Kong Adolescents: The Role Of Moral Competence And Spirituality, Daniel T. L. Shek, Xiaoqin Zhu

Pediatrics Faculty Publications

Based on the six-wave data collected from Grade 7 to Grade 12 students (N = 3,328 at Wave 1), this pioneer study examined the development of problem behaviors (risk and delinquent behavior and problem behavioral intention) and the predictors (moral competence and spirituality) among adolescents in Hong Kong. Individual growth curve models revealed that while risk and delinquent behavior accelerated and then slowed down in the high school years, adolescent problem behavioral intention slightly accelerated over time. After controlling the background socio-demographic factors, moral competence and spirituality were negatively associated with risk and delinquent behavior as well as problem …

A Visual Tool For Interdisciplinary Investigations, James J. O'Keefe

Lesley University Community of Scholars Day

Interdisciplinary investigations using the Gapminder dynamic interactive software will be the focus of this seminar.

Essentials Of Structural Equation Modeling, Mustafa Emre Civelek

Zea E-Books Collection

Structural Equation Modeling is a statistical method increasingly used in scientific studies in the fields of Social Sciences. It is currently a preferred analysis method, especially in doctoral dissertations and academic researches. However, since many universities do not include this method in the curriculum of undergraduate and graduate courses, students and scholars try to solve the problems they encounter by using various books and internet resources.

This book aims to guide the researcher who wants to use this method in a way that is free from math expressions. It teaches the steps of a research program using structured equality modeling …

Forecasting Country Conflict Within Modified Combatant Command Regions Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann

Theses and Dissertations

Conflict forecasts are crucial to Combatant Commanders’ understanding of the dynamic environment encompassing countries within their area of responsibility. The current structure of the Combatant Commands (COCOMs) is rooted in geography by grouping nations in geographic proximity to the same regional command. However, leaders today question the effectiveness of the current structure. A novel modified k-means clustering algorithm is developed and implemented that groups countries based on data similarities and geographic proximity resulting in new COCOM groupings that improve conflict forecasts. The data spans various political, military, economic, and social characteristics of countries, and is used to develop conditional logistic …

Antenatal Care Provider And Cesarean Section In Urban Areas In Indonesia, Terry Yuliana Rahadian Pristya, Milla Herdayati, Besral Besral, Dheni Fidyah Fika

Kesmas

Tren persalinan sesar di Indonesia (2007-2012) mengalami peningkatan dua kali lipat berisiko pada munculnya masalah kesehatan jangka panjang maupun pendek. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui hubungan tenaga kesehatan pemeriksa kehamilan dengan persalinan sesar. Penelitian kuantitatif ini menggunakan desain potong lintang dengan sampel penelitian 5143 wanita usia subur berusia 15-49 tahun yang melahirkan anak terakhirnya, baik melahirkan sesar maupun tidak di wilayah perkotaan yang terpilih dalam sampel Survei Demografi Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012. Analisis multivariat regresi logistik digunakan untuk mengetahui hubungan tenaga pemeriksa kehamilan dengan persalinan sesar, dikontrol oleh usia ibu, tempat periksa kehamilan, paritas, dan tempat melahirkan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa …

Early Inititation Of Breastfeeding And Vitamin A Supplementation With Nutritional Status Of Children Aged 6-59 Months, Betty Yosephin Simanjuntak, Miratul Haya, Desri Suryani, Che An Ahmad

Kesmas

Masa balita, khususnya dua tahun pertama kehidupan merupakan usia emas bagi anak karena pertumbuhan dan perkembangannya yang cepat. Oleh karena itu, terjadinya gangguan nutrisi pada masa itu bisa bersifat permanen dan tidak dapat diubah. Penelitian ini mengkaji hubungan antara inisiasi dini pemberian air susu ibu dan vitamin A dengan status gizi. Total sampel yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini adalah 1.592 anak di bawah lima tahun (balita) berusia 6-59 bulan yang diambil dari Pemantauan Status Gizi Indonesia 2015 di Bengkulu. Data termasuk usia, jenis kelamin, inisiasi menyusui dini, panjang kelahiran, berat lahir, suplementasi vitamin Adikumpulkan dengan menggunakan kuesioner. Berat dan tinggi …

Family Support As A Factor Influencing The Provision Of Exclusive Breastfeeding Among Adolescent Mothers In Bantul, Yogyakarta, Maulida Lailatussu’Da, Niken Meilani, Nanik Setiyawati, Sammy Onyapidi Barasa

Kesmas

Kehamilan remaja di Indonesia cukup tinggi. Kecamatan Sewon memiliki angka persalinan remaja tertinggi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2015-2016. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pemberian ASI eksklusif pada ibu usia remaja di Kecamatan Sewon, Kabupaten Bantul. Penelitian ini menggunakan desain potong lintang dan sampel penelitian berjumlah 45 orang ibu usia remaja yang mempunyai bayi usia 6-24 bulan. Pengumpulan data menggunakan kuesioner terstruktur. Analisis bivariat menggunakan kai kuadrat dan fisher’s exact test, sedangkan analisis multivariat menggunakan regresi logistik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 53.3% ibu usia remaja tidak memberikan ASI eksklusif. Analisis bivariat menunjukkan faktor status kehamilan (nilai p …

Effect Of Nutrition Counseling Knowledge And Attitude Toward Mother Breastfeeding And Baby Growth In Sub Lubuk Pakam, Herta Masthalina, Zein Agustina

Kesmas

Untuk dapat menjalankan program ASI eksklusif, ibu menyusui harus memiliki pengetahuan yang baik. Salah satu cara dalam menambah pengetahuan yaitu dengan memberikan konseling gizi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh konseling gizi tentang ASI eksklusif dan status gizi terhadap pengetahuan dan sikap ibu menyusui di wilayah Puskesmas Kecamatan Lubuk Pakam. Jenis penelitian ini adalah quasi experimental non-equivalent control group design. Sampel sejumlah 60 ibu dibagi ke dalam dua kelompok, yaitu 30 ibu yang diberikan konseling gizi intensif pada kelompok intervensi di wilayah kerja Puskesmas Lubuk Pakam dan 30 ibu pada kelompok kontrol di wilayah kerja Puskesmas Tanjung Morawa. Kelompok perlakuan …

The Effect Of Health Insurance On Institutional Delivery In Indonesia, Mazda Novi Mukhlisa, Pujiyanto Pujiyanto

Kesmas

Pemanfaatan pelayanan persalinan di fasilitas kesehatan berdampak pada menurunnya angka kematian ibu (AKI). Di Indonesia, persalinan di fasilitas kesehatan mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya, tetapi masih terdapat sekitar 30% ibu yang bersalin di rumah. Sayangnya, peningkatan pemanfaatan pelayanan persalinan di fasilitas kesehatan tersebut tidak diimbangi dengan penurunan AKI, sehingga Indonesia tidak berhasil mencapai target MDGs. Untuk mencapai Universal Health Coverage, Indonesia mengimplementasikan program Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) yang mengintegrasikan empat jaminan kesehatan, yaitu Askes/ASABRI, Jamsostek, Jamkesmas, dan Jamkesda. Jaminan kesehatan dapat mengatasi kendala biaya pada persalinan di fasilitas kesehatan. Dengan menggunakan data Riset Kesehatan Dasar 2013 dan data Potensi Desa 2011 …

Risk Of Adolescent Pregnancy Toward Maternal And Infant Health, Analisis Of Idhs 2012, Anni Fithriyatul Mas'udah, Besral Besral, Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara

Kesmas

Dampak kehamilan pada remaja erat kaitannya dengan risiko kesehatan ibu dan bayi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan komposit indeks kesehatan ibu, indeks kesehatan bayi dan untuk menelaah pengaruh kehamilan remaja terhadap kesehatan ibu dan bayi. Penelitian ini menggunakan data Survei Demografi Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012, dengan sampel 2.167 responden yang memenuhi syarat inklusi (wanita usia subur yang pernah melahirkan anak pertama sejak Januari 2007 sampai survei dilaksanakan). Analisis menggunakan Polychoric Principal Component Analysis untuk menentukan komposit indeks kesehatan ibu dan bayi, serta regresi logistik untuk mengetahui besar hubungan kehamilan remaja terhadap kesehatan ibu dan bayi. Kesehatan ibu dapat ditentukan melalui …

Exclusive Breastfeeding Intention Among Pregnant Women, Tria Astika Endah Permatasari, Ratu Ayu Dewi Sartika, Endang Laksminingsih Achadi, Urip Purwono, Anies Irawati, Dwiana Ocviyanti, Evi Martha

Kesmas

Intensi pemberian ASI eksklusif adalah intensi ibu untuk memberikan hanya ASI pada bayinya sejak dilahirkan hingga berusia enam bulan. Intensi pada periode prenatal merupakan penentu langsung pemberian ASI eksklusif. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui faktor paling dominan berhubungan dengan intensi pemberian ASI eksklusif pada ibu hamil di sebuah rumah sakit ibu dan anak di Kota Tangerang Selatan. Penelitian dengan desain studi potong lintang dilakukan secara primer. Sampel berjumlah 143 ibu hamil trimester ketiga dipilih secara purposive sampling. Intensi pemberian ASI eksklusif diukur menggunakan kuesioner the Infant Feeding Intentions scale. Sedangkan sikap, norma subjektif dan persepsi kontrol perilaku dinilai menggunakan modifikasi kuesioner …

Technical Considerations In The Use Of The E-Value, Tyler J. Vanderweele, Peng Ding, Maya Mathur

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The E-value is defined as the minimum strength of association on the risk ratio scale that an unmeasured confounder would have to have with both the exposure and the outcome, conditional on the measured covariates, to explain away the observed exposure-outcome association. We have elsewhere proposed that the reporting of E-values for estimates and for the limit of the confidence interval closest to the null become routine whenever causal effects are of interest. A number of questions have arisen about the use of E-value including questions concerning the interpretation of the relevant confounding association parameters, the nature of the transformation …

An Old Tool With Enduring Value: Using Excel To Prepare Data For Analysis, Gregory A. Smith

Faculty Publications and Presentations

Microsoft Excel was first released on the Windows platform 30 years ago and has since become widely used. Although new tools for manipulating, analyzing, and visualizing data are constantly emerging, Excel remains a potent tool—and not just because of newer features. Simple functions such as TRIM, MID, SUBSTITUTE, FIND, ROUNDDOWN, and VLOOKUP can be used to manipulate data sets in powerful ways.

This workshop applies selected functions to realistic library data sets. Demonstrations include:

• deriving time-series categories from date and time stamps
• pre-coding survey comments based on keywords
• dealing with messy data points such as …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

Models As Weapons: Review Of Weapons Of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality And Threatens Democracy By Cathy O’Neil (2016), Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

Cathy O’Neil. 2016. Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy (New York, NY: Crown) 272 pp. ISBN 978-0553418811.

Accessible to a wide readership, Cathy O’Neil’s Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy provides a lucid yet alarming account of the extensive reach of mathematical models in influencing all of our lives. With a particular eye towards social justice, O’Neil not only warns modelers to be cognizant of the effects of their work on real people—especially vulnerable groups who have less power to fight back—but also encourages laypersons to take initiative …

A Preliminary Study Of Smithport Plain Bottle Morphology In The Southern Caddo Area, Robert Z. Selden Jr.

CRHR: Archaeology

This study expands upon a previous analysis of the Clarence H. Webb collection, which resulted in the identification of two discrete shapes used in the manufacture of the base and body of Smithport Plain bottles. The sample includes the Smithport Plain bottles from the Webb collection, and four new bottles: two previously repatriated specimens in the Pohler Collection, and two from the Mitchell site (41BW4) to test whether those specimens align morphologically with the Belcher Mound or Smithport Landing specimens. Results indicate significant allometry and a significant difference in Smithport Plain body and base shapes for bottles produced at the …

Waking Up Every Day In A Body That Is Not Yours: A Qualitative Research Inquiry Into The Intersection Between Eating Disorders And Pregnancy, Elizabeth A. Claydon, Danielle M. Davidov, Keith J. Zullig, Christa L. Lilly, Lesley Cattrell, Stephanie C. Zerwas

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Background: Women with eating disorders are more likely to negatively react to finding out they are pregnant, although this difference in attitudes between women with eating disorders and controls disappears at 18-weeks’ gestation. Those with anorexia also are twice as likely to have an unplanned pregnancy and those with bulimia have a 30-fold increased chance compared with healthy controls. Therefore, due to these considerations, pregnancy and the transition to motherhood can be an extremely challenging time for these women both psychologically and physically. The purpose of this qualitative descriptive study was to understand the intersection between eating disorders and pregnancy …

Method Overtness, Forensic Autopsy, And The Evidentiary Suicide Note: A Multilevel National Violent Death Reporting System Analysis, Ian R. H. Rockett, Eric D. Caine, Steven Stack, Hilary S. Connery, Kurt B. Nolte, Christa L. Lilly, Ted R. Miller, Lewis S. Nelson, Sandra L. Putnam, Paul S. Nestadt, Haomiao Jia

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Objective

Higher prevalence of suicide notes could signify more conservatism in accounting and greater proneness to undercounting of suicide by method. We tested two hypotheses: (1) an evidentiary suicide note is more likely to accompany suicides by drug-intoxication and by other poisoning, as less violent and less forensically overt methods, than suicides by firearm and hanging/suffocation; and (2) performance of a forensic autopsy attenuates any observed association between overtness of method and the reported presence of a note.

Methods

This multilevel (individual/county), multivariable analysis employed a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Representing the 17 states participating in the United States …

Gene × Environment Interaction: What Exactly Are We Talking About?, David S. Moore

Pitzer Faculty Publications and Research

An ambiguity exists in how psychological scientists use the word “interaction.” This word can refer to physical interactions between components that constitute the mechanisms in complex systems, but it can also refer to statistical interactions revealed by General Linear Statistical Models (e.g., Analyses of Variance). Statistical interactions indicate that the nature of the relationship between two variables depends on a third variable, but the discovery of such interactions does not constitute evidence of physical interactions between components in a system. Studies conducted using traditional behavioral genetics methods sometimes reveal statistical interactions between genes and environments, but the presence or absence …

Introduction: Symposium On “Forensics, Statistics, And Law”, Brandon L. Garrett

Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Psychometric Properties Of A Working Memory Span Task, Juan M. Alzate Vanegas

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The intent of this thesis is to examine the psychometric properties of a complex span task (CST) developed to measure working memory capacity (WMC) using measurements obtained from a sample of 68 undergraduate students at the University of Central Florida. The Grocery List Task (GLT) promises several design improvements over traditional CSTs in a prior study about individual differences in WMC and distraction effects on driving performance, and it offers potential benefits for studying WMC as well as the serial-position effect. Currently, the working memory system is composed of domain-general memorial storage processes and information-processing, which involves the use of …

The Impact Of Data Sovereignty On American Indian Self-Determination: A Framework Proof Of Concept Using Data Science, Joseph Carver Robertson

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Data Sovereignty Initiative is a collection of ideas that was designed to create SMART solutions for tribal communities. This concept was to develop a horizontal governance framework to create a strategic act of sovereignty using data science. The core concept of this idea was to present data sovereignty as a way for tribal communities to take ownership of data in order to affect policy and strategic decisions that are data driven in nature. The case studies in this manuscript were developed around statistical theories of spatial statistics, exploratory data analysis, and machine learning. And although these case studies are …

Mechanism Design, Matching Theory And The Stable Roommates Problem, Yashaswi Mohanty

Honors Theses

This thesis consists of two independent albeit related chapters. The first chapter introduces concepts from mechanism design and matching theory, and discusses potential applications of this theory, particularly in relation to dorm allocations in colleges. The second chapter investigates a subset of the dorm allocation problem, namely that of matching roommates. In particular, the paper looks at the probability of solvability of random instances of the stable roommates game under the condition that preferences are not completely random and exogenous but endogenously determined through a dependence on room choice. These probabilities are estimated using Monte-Carlo simulations and then compared with …

Analysis Of Residential And Auto Break-In Records In Taipei City, Afnan Althoupety, Aishwarya Joy, Juchun Cheng, Priyanka Patil, Tejas Deshpande

Engineering and Technology Management Student Projects

Taipei City is the capital of Taiwan. It has population of 2.7 million living in the city area of 271 km2 (104 mi2). There are totally 12 administrative districts in this city. To maintain the safety of the city, Taipei City Police Bureau has arranged regular patrol routes with focus on the high-risk area where residential and auto break-in occurs. Due to limited police resource, resident neighborhood also organized volunteered patrol teams to enhance the security in residential area. Based on past file record history, the Bureau would like to understand the high-risk districts and time schedule to improve their …

Race, Ethnicity, And The Great Recession : A National Evaluation Of Mortgages And Subprime Lending, 2004-2010, Meghan M. O'Neil

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The dissertation analyzes multilevel models to predict mortgage origination and the allocation of subprime credit pre-and-post Great Recession. With representative samples from two full years of mortgage applications filed in the top 100 U.S. metropolitan areas, the dissertation uncovers evidence of persistent disparities by race and neighborhood minority concentration despite controls for socioeconomic, demographic, assimilation and housing variables. Mortgage outcomes varied by applicant race, neighborhood racial composition and neighborhood racial change. Findings suggest evidence of Fair Housing Act violations and disparate impacts towards minority homebuyers and minority neighborhoods. Results lend support for spatial assimilation theories in explaining much of the …

Accounting For Spatial Autocorrelation In Modeling The Distribution Of Water Quality Variables, Lorrayne Miralha

Theses and Dissertations--Geography

Several studies in hydrology have reported differences in outcomes between models in which spatial autocorrelation (SAC) is accounted for and those in which SAC is not. However, the capacity to predict the magnitude of such differences is still ambiguous. In this thesis, I hypothesized that SAC, inherently possessed by a response variable, influences spatial modeling outcomes. I selected ten watersheds in the USA and analyzed them to determine whether water quality variables with higher Moran’s I values undergo greater increases in the coefficient of determination (R²) and greater decreases in residual SAC (rSAC) after spatial modeling. I compared non-spatial ordinary …

Modeling And Mapping Location-Dependent Human Appearance, Zachary Bessinger

Theses and Dissertations--Computer Science

Human appearance is highly variable and depends on individual preferences, such as fashion, facial expression, and makeup. These preferences depend on many factors including a person's sense of style, what they are doing, and the weather. These factors, in turn, are dependent upon geographic location and time. In our work, we build computational models to learn the relationship between human appearance, geographic location, and time. The primary contributions are a framework for collecting and processing geotagged imagery of people, a large dataset collected by our framework, and several generative and discriminative models that use our dataset to learn the relationship …

The Use Of Item Response Theory In Survey Methodology: Application In Seat Belt Data, Mark K. Ledbetter, Norou Diawara, Bryan E. Porter

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Problem: Several approaches to analyze survey data have been proposed in the literature. One method that is not popular in survey research methodology is the use of item response theory (IRT). Since accurate methods to make prediction behaviors are based upon observed data, the design model must overcome computation challenges, but also consideration towards calibration and proficiency estimation. The IRT model deems to be offered those latter options. We review that model and apply it to an observational survey data. We then compare the findings with the more popular weighted logistic regression. Method: Apply IRT model to the observed data …