Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Mortgage Default Classification Modeling For Variable Analysis, Brendan R. Goggins

Honors College Theses

The financial crisis of the early 2000’s is a prime example of the severe consequences that mortgage default and borrower insolvency can have on economies at large. Mortgage default specifically is a prime case with the popularization of mortgage backed securities and the commonality of this loan structure. Multiple hypotheses and models have been formed to understand the reasons, causes, and consequences of mortgage default. This paper uses both machine learning and statistical classification models to inform an understanding of the variables most significant and impactful to the default outcome of mortgages. Consideration is given to both loan-level microeconomic variables …

Representative Sampling, Jessica Choe, Lisa K. Lashley, Charles J. Golden

Essays in Developmental Psychology

The research process begins with an initial observation that scientists or researchers of various backgrounds want to engage in and understand, which prompts them to formulate theories and hypotheses, collect data, and use statistical procedures to organize, summarize, and interpret gathered data. Research conducted through questionnaires or surveys are often utilized to determine the nature of a population or the interests of members in a particular group.

Impacts Of Extreme Weather Conditions On Coastal Fisheries Near Bayou Teche, Louisiana From 2019–2023, Georgia C. Davis

LSU Master's Theses

The region of Southcentral Louisiana, particularly around Bayou Teche, thrives on its commercial and recreational fisheries. These fisheries are occasionally subject to events like extreme weather that cause sudden and unexpected losses (NOAA Fisheries, 2024a). Between 2019 and 2023, a series of extreme weather events impacted southcentral Louisiana near Bayou Teche. This series of extreme events includes Hurricane Barry (2019), Hurricane Laura (2020), Hurricane Delta (2020), Hurricane Zeta (2020), Hurricane Ida (2021), and a United States Drought Monitor (USDM) D4 drought (2023). This study analyzes the impacts of the extreme weather series on coastal fish observed species richness (SR) in …

Enhancing Animal Shelter Operations With Time Series And Machine Learning, Sakava L. Kiv, Donald L. Anderson, Shivam Negi, Jacquelyn Cheun

SMU Data Science Review

Enhancing animal shelter operations through machine learning involves employing a variety of advanced techniques aimed at increasing efficiency, promoting animal welfare, and optimizing resource allocation. This paper explores predictive analytics for adoption rates using regression models to estimate the likelihood of adoption based on historical data, encompassing variables such as breed, health status, and previous adoption trends. Additionally, classification algorithms are utilized to categorize animals by adoption probability, facilitating better resources and marketing prioritization. Clustering algorithms are employed to group animals according to behavior patterns and/or physical health, enabling tailored medical care and enrichment activities that improve their mental and …

Prenatal Exposure To Pm2.5 Concentration And Risk Of Preterm Birth In New Mexico; A Seasonal Pattern And Spatio-Temporal Modeling., Onyedikachi J. Okeke

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This study investigates the association between prenatal PM2.5 exposure and preterm birth risk in New Mexico (2014–2021). Using descriptive statistics, time series models, and spatial analyses, findings show an average preterm birth rate of 14.87 per 1,000 live births, with moderate correlation (r = 0.727) between PM2.5 levels and very preterm births. While traditional models revealed no significant global effect, spatial methods such as Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Multiscale GWR uncovered strong spatial heterogeneity. PM2.5 effects varied by county (coefficients: -0.00154 to 0.00150), with clustering evident in 2018–2019 (Moran’s I = 0.155–0.174). Results highlight the limitations of global models …

Reshaping Future: Research Progress And Future Prospects Of Disruptive Technology Topics, Sanhong Deng, Jianming Guo, Yujie Shi

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance]Disruptive technology is regarded as a revolutionary force that "changes the rules of the game" and "reshapes the future pattern", and has gradually become a hot and difficult issue in interdisciplinary research. This paper summarizes the literature related to disruptive technologies, clarifies the concepts and characteristics of disruptive technologies, subdivides research topics and directions, summarizes research focuses and looks forward to future development trends, and provides reference for relevant personnel. [Method/ process]On the basis of sorting out the latest related research on disruptive technologies, this paper clarifies the research progress of disruptive technologies from three aspects: the concept and characteristics …

Statistical Inference For Noisy Matrix Completion Incorporating Auxiliary Information, Shujie Ma, Po-Yao Niu, Yichong Zhang, Yinchu Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article investigates statistical inference for noisy matrix completion in a semi-supervised model when auxiliary covariates are available. The model consists of two parts. One part is a low-rank matrix induced by unobserved latent factors; the other part models the effects of the observed covariates through a coefficient matrix which is composed of high-dimensional column vectors. We model the observational pattern of the responses through a logistic regression of the covariates, and allow its probability to go to zero as the sample size increases. We apply an iterative least squares (LS) estimation approach in our considered context. The iterative LS …

Value-Based Healthcare Reimagined: A Mixed-Methods Study On Behavioral Health Clinicians' Perspectives, Amanda L. Strickland

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study explores how behavioral health clinicians perceive Value-Based Healthcare (VBHC), a model designed by Porter and Teisberg (2006) to improve outcomes relative to costs. While widely promoted in healthcare reform, VBHC poses unique challenges when applied to behavioral health settings. Using an explanatory mixed-methods design, this study first assessed clinicians’ awareness of VBHC through a survey of 23 licensed clinicians at a Community Mental Health Center (CMHC) in Colorado. Quantitative findings revealed that one-third of participants were aware of VBHC with awareness differing by role prompting further exploration in a qualitative phase. Semi-structured interviews with eight clinicians provided deeper …

Analysis Of Systematic Trade-Offs Between Military And Healthcare Expenditure Alongside Gdp Growth Of Select Asian And Western Exporting Economies In The 21st Century, Rahul Balamurugan, Carlos Gershenson, Preethi Nanjundan, Hiroki Sayama

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study explores the complexity in the trade-offs between military expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and GDP growth across select Asian nations and major weapon-exporting countries, examining how nations allocate finite resources between national security and human well-being over the past two decades. Using a systems science approach, the research integrates Granger causality testing to analyze temporal and directional relationships among GDP growth, military expenditure, and healthcare expenditure, uncovering their dynamic interdependencies. The methodology includes trend and slope analysis, Granger causality testing, outlier detection, and clustering to identify heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies. Developed, weapon-exporting nations exhibit complementary trends, with strong causality …

Analysis Of Nuclear Security And Safety Integration Using Survey Responses And Pairwise Comparison Methods, Sheila V. Gbormittah, Theodore A. Thomas, Jason Timothy Harris

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Integrating nuclear security and safety is important for implementing and sustaining nuclear technology because it promises improved and effective management. This integration is an ongoing effort to ensure that both work together with minimal conflicts. This research aimed to determine the preferred level at which nuclear security and nuclear safety integrate by using the pairwise comparison methods of decision-making. This methodology used survey responses from women nuclear professionals to identify the most-desired criteria at three levels: strategic, operational, and cultural. The strategic level includes actions that government officials and regulators can take. The operational level encompasses actions that deliver the …

Investigating The Relationship Between The Circadian Clock, Age, And Lifestyle, Samuel Park, Amaka Eziakonwa, Amega Nguyen, Madison Payne, Erich Stahmer, Alexis Salinas, Payson Broome, Angel Oliver, Christian Mccormick, Jasmyn Brown, Julie A. Zacharias-Simpson, Jutta Ward, Deborah Bell-Pedersen

Annual Research Symposium

This poster presentation aims to understand how circadian clock strength and phase are affected by age and lifestyle. By analyzing changes in physiological rhythms, the study seeks to develop strategies for promoting healthy aging by optimizing circadian function.

Tracking The Effects Of Time Zone Shift On An Individual’S Circadian Rhythm, Amaka Eziakonwa, Erich Stahmer, Amega Nguyen, Samuel Park, Madison Payne, Alexis Salinas, Deborah Bell-Pedersen, Julie A. Zacharias-Simpson

Annual Research Symposium

This poster presentation aims to understand how a rapid time-zone change can affect an individual’s circadian rhythms. By quantifying changes in physiological rhythms, the study seeks to develop targeted therapeutic interventions to mitigate the negative effects of jetlag.

Can We Eliminate The Negative Consequences Of Circadian Desynchronization Caused By Night Shift Work By Using A Light Therapy Lamp To Simulate A Sunset?, Amega Nguyen, Madison Payne, Amaka Eziakonwa, Erich Stahmer, Alexis Salinas, Samuel Park, Julie A. Zacharias-Simpson, Deborah Bell-Pedersen

Annual Research Symposium

This poster aims to understand the relationship between desynchronosis of circadian rhythms and night-shift work and how light therapy can mitigate some of the issues of desynchronosis. This study seeks to develop therapies for disrupted circadian rhythms from night-ship works.

Visualizing The Rise Of American Women's Soccer, Hoi Wah Tang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The rise of American women’s soccer is a compelling narrative of determination, talent, and triumph on the global stage. From the inaugural FIFA Women’s World Cup in 1991 to the ongoing dominance of the U.S. Women’s National Team (USWNT), this journey encapsulates not only athletic excellence but also the broader struggles for equality, representation, and respect in sports.

This project aims to bring this story to life by presenting a rich tapestry of data visualizations, timelines, and multimedia elements that showcase key moments, players, and milestones. Through engaging graphics and interactive features, users will explore how the sport evolved, the …

Chatgpt Didn’T Write This: Evaluating The Impact Of Llms With A Case Study In Grading Cuny Language Immersion Program Student Essays, Benjamin Inbar

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of large language models (LLMs), specifically OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4o, in grading essays from students in the City University of New York’s Language Immersion Program. The program serves English language learners with diverse linguistic and demographic backgrounds, offering intensive language instruction to prepare students for academic success in college. Using a dataset of 30 pre- and post-program essays scored by program instructors and ChatGPT-4o under three paradigms, this research explores the alignment between human and AI-generated scores across five rubric-based competency areas. Findings reveal that ChatGPT-4o aligns moderately with human grading, with the strongest agreement …

An Investigation Of Travel Distance And Timeliness Of Breast Cancer Treatment Among A Diverse Cohort In The United States, Swann Arp Adams, Oluwole Adeyemi Babatunde, Whitney Zahnd, Peiyin Hung, Karen E. Wickersham, Nathaniel Bell Ph.D., Jan M. Eberth Ph.D.

Publications

Travel to and from distant cancer treatment facilities can place a significant burden on cancer patients, particularly rural and minority survivors. Thus, the purpose of our investigation was to examine the association between patient travel distance and delays in types of treatment for breast cancer (surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and hormonal therapy) and treatment delays. Using a novel linkage between the state cancer registry and administrative data from Medicaid and a private insurance plan, 2155 BC patients were successfully linked to create the cohort. ArcGIS was used to geocode all case residences and treatment facility addresses and calculate network distance between …

Meditation In Qualitative Research For Bracketing And Beyond, Katalin Grajzel

Research Methods and Statistics: Graduate Student Scholarship

In this study, I recounted my experience using mantra meditation during a phenomenological study for the purposes of bracketing. The efficacy and purpose of bracketing have been debated from Husserl (1931), whose aimed was to achieve objectivity, to Heidegger (1962) who advocated for immersion of the researcher, through the French school (Merleau-Ponty, 1964) of middle ground, by whom bracketing was seen as the process to unearth and suspend biases for the better understanding of participants’ experiences (Arsel, 2017; Creswell & Creswell, 2017; Creswell & Poth, 2016; Fischer & Guzel, 2023). In this study, however, I propose another approach to bracketing …

A Monte Carlo Study Of The Efficacy Of The Mantel-Haenszel Method At Detecting Item Bias, Macy Daulton

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The Mantel-Haenszel (MH) method is a statistical method used for differential item functioning analysis. Previous differential item functioning (DIF) research of the MH method focused on Type I error rates and statistical power. Not yet studied in the literature is whether excessive numbers of biased items may cause the MH method to fail to identify biased items. The proposed study employed a Monte Carlo design to determine the extent of bias in the match items necessary for the MH method to fail to identify a biased item. Results showed that the threshold was greater than was hypothesized, requiring nearly all …

Empirical Vulnerability Function Development Based On The Damage Caused By The 2014 Chiang Rai Earthquake, Thailand, Patcharavadee Hong, Masashi Matsuoka

Institute for Innovation & Entrepreneurship Publications

Seismic hazards in Thailand are frequently overlooked in disaster management planning, leading to insufficient research and significant economic losses during earthquake events. The 2014 Chiang Rai earthquake exposed critical vulnerabilities in Thailand's building practices due to widespread non-compliance with building codes and limited preparedness. This exposure prompted the development of empirical vulnerability functions using loss data from 15,031 damaged residences. The study analyzed government compensation records, which were standardized using replacement cost metrics. Three distinct models were developed through probabilistic and possibilistic modeling approaches. Residual analysis demonstrated the superior performance of the possibilistic approach, with the Possibilistic-based Vulnerability Function achieving …

The Economic And Environmental Impact Of Shinkansen And High-Speed Rail Infrastructure: A Comparative Analysis Of Economic Growth And Carbon Emissions Reduction, Dillan R. Victory

SPARK Symposium Presentations

The development of Japan's high-speed rail system, the Shinkansen, has played a pivotal role in the country's post-war economic resurgence. Introduced in 1964 with the Tokaidō Shinkansen, this transformative infrastructure investment significantly reduced travel times, bolstered economic activity around station hubs, and facilitated regional development by enabling urban decentralization. This paper explores the long-term economic benefits of high-speed rail, including its impact on land value, business expansion, and carbon emissions. The case study of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen, Japan's latest maglev project, underscores both the economic promise and the political resistance to expansion, particularly in regions such as Shizuoka.

Using …

Optimizing Decision-Making In A Cerebral Palsy Model Using Reinforcement Learning, Richard Ampah

Pitzer Senior Theses

This study presents an original interdisciplinary investigation into how reinforcement learning (RL) can model motor and cognitive defects and potentially improve motor and cognitive functions in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), a non-progressive neurological disorder that impairs movement and adaptability. Integrating computational neuroscience and machine learning, the research applies policy gradient methods and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to simulate adaptive learning in agents with and without CP-related constraints.

The central aim is to compare the cumulative rewards of optimal policies, derived from value iteration, and human-like learning policies using the REINFORCE algorithm, both with and without the Bellman baseline. The …

Identifying Research Paths Based On Main Path Analysis: A Case Study Of Knowledge Graphs, Ruibin Wei, Yidan Wang, Yan Xu

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance]The main path analysis of citation networks can be used to identify important literature in specific fields and can achieve the extraction of mainstream research threads. This paper will use the main path analysis method to analyze the research path of knowledge graphs and sort out the context of their research development. [Method/process]This paper firstly obtains research papers in the field of knowledge graphs from the Web of Science platform, then uses the HistCite software to generate a direct citation network of the literature, and then imports the data into Pajek to generate multiple main paths of the dataset, and …

Understanding The Challenges And Satisfaction Among The Medical Professional Preceptors, Cornelia Ko

West Chester University Doctoral Projects

This study evaluates the Penn Medicine Family Medicine Clerkship program through a mixed-methods approach, exploring the challenges and factors influencing the satisfaction of medical professional preceptors when precepting students. A quantitative survey with 54 preceptor participants reveals the top challenges preceptors face: workload, conflicts with patient care, and limited clinical space. Despite this, there is strong support for the program, with 89% of preceptors enjoying the role and 85% expressing willingness to continue to precept for the next three years. Finally, data analysis shows no statistical correlation between preceptor motivation with gender, ethnicity, age group, years of serving, or total …

Students’ Perceptions Of Self And Peers Predict Self-Reports Of Cheating, Amber M. Henslee, Luke Settles, Sara E. Johnson, Gayla R. Olbricht

Psychological Science Faculty Research & Creative Works

Academic dishonesty and how to address it are common concerns across higher education disciplines, but engineering students admit to higher rates of academic dishonesty than other students. However, first-year students may be particularly receptive to prevention efforts. Considering self-perception, social norming, and behavioral choice theories, we hypothesized that 1.) Students who perceived themself as ethical and more knowledgeable of the consequences for misconduct would be less likely to self-report cheating and 2.) Students who perceived cheating and plagiarism to be common would be more likely to self-report cheating. For this study, freshmen engineering students (N=703) reported their self-perception, perception of …

An 11-Year (2012-2022) Review Of Journal Of Athletic Training Publication Study Designs And Sample Sizes, Zachary K. Winkelmann, Samantha E. Scarneo-Miller, Emily C. Smith, Ryan M. Argetsinger, Lindsey E. Eberman

Rehabilitation Sciences Faculty Publications

Background

Research findings must be representative by creating a sample of individuals, ensuring the results can be generalized and applicable to a larger population, which has historically been guided by a power analysis. However, the varied research design methods require a unique approach to sampling and a formula for recruitment and size. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze historical data from published manuscripts in the Journal of Athletic Training (JAT) relative to study design and sample sizes. A secondary purpose was to further explore metrics for survey-based research.

Methods

This descriptive analysis explored 1267 publications in each …

Analyzing Car Theft Trends In Central Texas: A Comparative Study Of Waco, College Station, And Killeen, Daniel Njogu

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This study examines motor vehicle theft (MVT) trends from 2019 to 2023 in three Central Texas cities—Waco, College Station, and Killeen—using temporal analysis, geospatial hotspot mapping, and make/model data. In Killeen, thefts generally rose over the period, with notable peaks in October and on Mondays. College Station saw an overall decline in thefts but experienced a seasonal spike each March, and Waco’s thefts increased until around 2021 before beginning to fall. Local festivals—such as the Spirit of Texas in College Station and the Heart O’ Texas Fair in Waco—appear to coincide with these seasonal upticks. Hyundais and Kias were most …

Role Of C4 Resources In Isotopic Variability In Diet Among Children From Kellis 2 Cemetery, Dakhleh Oasis, Egypt, Faith R. Hendrix

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Using stable carbon isotope analysis, this study investigates dietary diversity in children buried at the Kellis 2 Cemetery (c. AD 50–450) in Egypt's Dakhleh Oasis. From the analysis of δ¹³C isotope values in hair keratin and bone collagen, the study reconstructs short-term and long-term dietary signals in juvenile and adult subjects. The aim is to clarify the role of C₄ plants—particularly millet—in weaning and childhood diets in a Romano-Christian Egyptian village context. A total of 631 segmented hair and 54 bone collagen samples were analyzed from 127 juveniles and 97 adults. Juvenile individuals (i.e., under 15 years biological age) showed …

Partisan Divides In Environmental Spending Attitudes: A Two-Level Hierarchical Analysis, 1973-2022, Jordan Lipner

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Public attitudes toward environmental spending have become increasingly divided along party lines, with sharp shifts over the past five decades. This thesis updates and expands on Johnson and Schwadel’s 2019 study by applying a two-level hierarchical linear model to General Social Survey data updated to include data from 2015-2022, capturing how political affiliation, education, race, and economic context interact with broader political and economic contexts to shape environmental attitudes over time.
The results show that political affiliation remains the strongest and most reactive predictor of environmental spending attitudes. Republican respondents are significantly more likely to oppose environmental spending, especially under …

“Regression To The Mean”: The Confluence Of Eugenics And Statistics In The 19th And 20th Centuries, Emrys G. King

Pomona Senior Theses

The work of this thesis is twofold — first, qualitatively characterizing the confluence between the British eugenics and statistics movements in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and second, quantitatively analyzing the effect of this foundation on pedagogical materials in the growing field of statistics between 1880 and 1970. Towards the first goal, the history of the method of least squares, state statistics, and positive and negative eugenics are outlined, followed by a close reading of the foundational texts authored by Francis Galton and Karl Pearson that introduced linear regression. Towards the latter goal, English-language statistics textbooks published between …

Sealing The Deal: A Case Study Of A Private, Southeastern, Regional College’S Student Onboarding Practices, Alicia R. Gaston, Kristen Meyer, Tyler Ogden, Jennifer Perkinson, Casey Yocum Michaels

Doctor of Education Capstones

Each year, higher education institutions offer support to new, incoming students through an onboarding process that requires dedication and collaboration across multiple departments. Offering streamlined guidance and clear communication throughout the onboarding process is essential to ensure incoming students understand action steps without becoming overwhelmed with new terminology, processes, and environments. This explanatory case study is set to understand the current communication practices and technology use across onboarding departments at Brightside College – also referred to as Brightside or BC (pseudonym). The research team aimed to understand Brightside's onboarding staff's perspective of current processes and practices. With emphasis on the …