Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Analyzing Political Sentiment On Micro-Blogging Data: A Lexicon And Machine Learning Approach To The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, Ava Grey

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores the trends in sentiment towards U.S. presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump through micro-blogging social media text during the five months leading up to the election. Two datasets of varying sizes and origins were used to contextualize and validate analysis findings. The analyses include both a lexicon-based approach and a machine learning predictive method. Common sentiment analysis techniques like term frequency, term frequency inverse, various lexicons, and n-grams were utilized during the lexicon approach. During the modeling, a random forest was utilized in addition to the methods used during the lexicon approach. Results showed that overall …

In Search Of The Rational Voter In The 2020 Presidential Election: Understanding The Impact Of Voter Costs And Benefits On Turnout, Norou Diawara, Tiffany Henley, Samuel L. Brown, Md Iqbal Hossain

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The ability to vote is one of the most valuable rights and privileges afforded by the Constitution of the United States to its citizens. For many, voting is not just a civic duty; it is also a choice. Voting is crucial to our democracy, and any changes to it may affect the efficiency of the democratic process. The bigger question is whether voters behave rationally by engaging in a cost-benefit calculus in deciding whether or not to vote. Using data science, this paper will examine the probability of voting and investigate its impact via cost and benefit among other variables …

Covariance Matrix Forecasting Of Equity Portfolios, Michael Nebor

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation consists of two papers. The first paper introduces DCC-SVR, a hybrid Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) method of forecasting the covariance matrix. This paper shows that DCC-SVR is able to outperform the traditional methods of DCC and rolling historical on multiple data sets. Performance is shown for both standard GARCH and GJR-GARCH methods. This paper also analyzes performance when dimensions are increased to 49 dimensions and when an application using equal weighted portfolio allocation is used.

The second paper introduces a covariance matrix forecasting method based on copula-GARCH simulated returns. The accuracy of this …

Efficient Algorithms For Nearest Correlation Matrix Computation With Missing Data, Ibrahim Eniola Oyeyinka

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This thesis investigates efficient algorithms for computing the Nearest Correlation Matrix (NCM) under incomplete financial data. Correlation matrices are vital in portfolio optimization and risk management, yet empirical estimates often violate symmetry, positive semidefiniteness, and unit diagonal conditions due to missing observations. Two projection-based methods are analyzed: the Modified Alternating Projections (MAP) and Anderson Acceleration (AA). Theoretical analysis using convex optimization and normal cone characterization supports numerical evaluation on synthetic and real-world stock-return matrices (550×550, 2020–2025). Missing data are modeled through Missing Completely at Random (MCAR) and Not Missing at Random (NMAR) mechanisms. The results show that AA converges faster …

A Modern Optimization Approach With Data-Driven Analytical Modeling For The Healthcare Business Segment (Hbs) From The S&P 500, Aditya Chakraborty, Chris Tsokos

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Introduction: The S&P consists of eleven business segments, which are classified according to the type of industry. The current study focuses on developing a non-linear analytical model for the Healthcare Business Segment (HBS) of the S&P 500, as a function of different economic & financial indicators. Materials and Methods: The analytical model used six financial indicators together with four economic indicators to predict the weekly average closing price (WCP) of HBS stocks. Johnson’s SB transformation corrected skewness, while desirability-based optimization identified indicator values maximizing WCP. The model’s performance and generalizability were validated through repeated 10-fold cross-validation. Results: All attributable contributors …

Climate Migration And Urban Survival: Evidence From Chittagong’S Slums, Mohammad Nur Nobi

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This study examines the impact of climate change on rural-to-urban migration in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Based on a primary survey of 400 respondents across 35 slums in the country's second-largest city, the analysis employs two estimation methods: a multinomial logit model to assess the influence of climate-related factors on migration decisions, and a logit model to evaluate the impact of migration on the living conditions of migrants. The results show that individuals involved in ‘agriculture and daily labor’ are most likely to migrate. Compared to the base category (‘Other Reasons’) for migration, the odds ratios for ‘floods’, ‘droughts’, and ‘better job …

Effect Of Universal Health Coverage On Neonatal Mortality Rate In Sub-Saharan Africa: Addressing Missing Data In Health Indicators, Elizabeth Nalule Arihoona

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This study utilizes two mixed-effects models to examine the effect of Universal Health Coverage on Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) in 30 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa from 2000-2019 while addressing the missing data in health indicators. Using natural cubic spline interpolation, I impute the missing values in the health coverage indices to preserve the location- specific trends of the data. Findings indicate that among the health Coverage indices, only Index1, which directly relates to coverage of maternal, newborn and child health services is significantly associated with reduced NMR. While higher Current Health Expenditure is associated with reduced NMR, a higher share …

Capital Structure Models And Contingent Convertible Securities, Di Meng

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

The 2007-09 financial crisis showed financial institutions are vulnerable during distressed times. As an alternative resolution to a government bail-out, contingent convertible securities (contingent capital or CoCos) were proposed by various researchers. CoCo is a hybrid capital security that converts from a bond to common equity when a pre-determined event occurs. The loss absorption mechanism of CoCo is essential to the financial health of a bank during a crisis as it provides an instant capital infusion when public capital is difficult to access.

In this thesis, we first implement a methodology to calibrate capital structure models for large Canadian banks. …

Modeling Neighborhoods As Fuel For Wildfire, Bryce Alan Young

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Wildfire models drive billions of dollars in risk mitigation efforts. However, the modeling community currently lacks a representative fuelscape on which to base simulations of fire spread in the built environment and the wildland-urban interface (WUI) where vegetation and structures act together as fuel for wildfire. This thesis advances wildfire risk modeling by addressing the underdeveloped representation of the built environment in existing frameworks. By identifying inconsistencies in how structure and defensible space features are defined and used across empirical studies, predictive indices, and fire spread models, this research lays the groundwork for standardized modeling approaches and feature selection (Chapter …

Impact Of Urban Development On Uv Exposure: A Clustering And Machine Learning Assessment, Taufik Roni Sahroni Mr., Verdi Yasin, Lulut Alfaris, Reza Ariefka, Ruben Cornelius Siagian, Mohammad Alfin Karim, Nana Rahdiana, Ade Suhara

Journal of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development

The relocation of Indonesia's capital city is anticipated to promote inclusive economic growth while embracing cultural diversity. However, this transition may affect ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure patterns. The study investigated variations in UV exposure in the IKN region, focusing on urban development factors such as land use and population density that affect public health, sun protection, and skin cancer prevention. The research hypothesized that UV radiation is significantly correlated with these factors. UV Index data from 2010-2023, a hierarchical clustering method, identifies complex data patterns without determining the number of clusters. XGBoost, a machine learning model, was used for handling …

How Should China Respond To “Pan-Data Sovereignty” Competition Among China, U.S., And Eu—An Analysis Based On The Digital Stack Model?, Yan Liu, Congjing Ran

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Data sovereignty has become deeply intertwined with various economic and social development factors such as technology, trade, economy, culture, society, and politics, leading to a “Pan-Data Sovereignty” competition pattern in the digital space. Through the digital stack model, which examines digital technologies in a layered framework, we can more clearly assess the competitive capacities in“Pan-Data Sovereignty” of China, United States, and European Union. The analysis identifies a three-tiered global “Pan-Data Sovereignty” competition structure among China, U.S., and EU, with each entity holding distinct advantages across various layers of the digital stack. Intense future competition is anticipated in fields such as …

Bayesian Estimation Of A Pragmatic Model For Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case Of Pakistan, Shahzad Ahmad, Waliullah .

CBER Conference

In this study, Bayesian maximum likelihood estimation of quarterly projections model for Pakistan as presented, as documented in Ahmad & Pasha (2015). Estimation results based on quarterly data from 2001 to 2023 show substantial differences in values of estimated versus calibrated parameters related to aggregate demand, aggregate supply, monetary policy rule and exogenous shock processes. The aim of this study is to compare forecasting performance for key macro variables. It shows that the estimated model provides more precise forecasts in case of headline inflation, real GDP growth, interest rate and exchange rate over 8-quarters forecast horizon. An estimated model for …

Monetary Policy In Good Times And In Bad: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan, Haider Ali

CBER Conference

A significant body of literature explores and establishes the impact of monetary policy on output and prices, at least in the short run. However, the subsequent question is whether this effect is symmetric concerning the various states of the economy (see, Tenreyro and Thwaites, 2016; Bernstein, 2021; Eichenbaum et al., 2022; among others). This study contributes to the literature on state-dependent (non-linear) effects of unanticipated monetary policy shocks according to two important features of the economy. The amount of slack in the economy and the amount of the public-sector footprint in the market. Evaluating state-dependent effects is crucial because assuming …

Unlocking The Power Of Data: Enhancing Public Policy Through Advanced Data Infrastructure And Language Model Analysis, Zahid Asghar

CBER Conference

Data is the fundamental building block for advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), general AI (GAI), machine learning (ML), and large language models (LLMs). This study emphasizes the critical need for robust data infrastructure, arguing that without it, countries cannot fully benefit from technological advancements in various economic sectors. Governments possess vast repositories of both structured and unstructured data across multiple domains such as the judiciary, parliaments, and civil bureaucracy. However, these potential goldmines remain untapped due to inadequate data management capabilities and a lack of appreciation for the necessity of high-quality data. The research identifies key issues in public data …

The Energy Efficiency Price Premium Of Residential Buildings In Three Italian Regions, Elena Giarda, Demetrio Panarello

CBER Conference

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether a higher energy efficiency of residential buildings translates into higher house prices in Italy. We employ novel, and almost unexploited, data on Energy Performance Certificates of three Italian regions (EmiliaRomagna, Lombardy and Piedmont) and merge them with house prices and socioeconomic variables at various aggregation levels. The relationship between house prices and energy efficiency is estimated by means of hedonic regression models, quantile regressions and fixed effects panel data models. Our results reveal the existence of an energy-efficiency price premium in the three regions, with significant differences among them. Heterogeneity is …

Statistical Analysis For Pre- And Post- Assessments Of Sdq And Idela Scores, Diego Murillo, Franceli L. Cibrian

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

This research aimed to assess the potential of Mazi Umntanakho ("Know Your Child") in tracking developmental milestones in young children. Mazi is a WhatsApp-based conversational agent that assists South African home visitors in evaluating and monitoring children's socio-emotional skills using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the International Development and Early Learning Assessment (IDELA). A field study was conducted in low-income South African communities, where 95 home visitors assessed 1,208 children. This detailed analysis of the data was collected during that deployment, focusing on investigating whether assessment scores improved over time and whether the length of time between assessments …

Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey

All Theses

This thesis examines the effects of extreme market shocks on supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry. Through an analysis of demand data from an automotive manufacturer to its component suppliers (January 2018 to May 2024), the study investigates the relationship between market shocks and supply chain responses, providing insights into how auto components inventory management handles downstream responses to market shocks. With supporting public data—from FRED, BLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau resources—we explore two primary relationships: the impact of market shocks on the Average Standard Deviation of Demand (SDO) and the effect of demand variability on expedited pricing …

A Strategic Insight Into The Market For Carbon Management Capacity, Mahelet G. Fikru, Ting Shen, Jennifer Brodmann, Hongyan Ma

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

This study presents the market for carbon management capacity via carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies, identifying demand and supply forces, as well as clarifying the potential impact of market and non-market-based shocks on technology developers versus adopters. The paper addresses a prevailing gap in market analysis, introducing a microeconomic framework and unique dataset to identify key players, market forces, and policy incentives shaping the carbon capture, utilization, and storage landscape. The analysis equips industry stakeholders, policymakers, and investors with valuable insights regarding (1) leaders in the design, development, and manufacture of carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies (supply), (2) …

Performance Of Acoustic Telemetry And Space Use Of Pallid Sturgeon In The Lower Platte River, Nebraska, Christopher F. Pullano

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Pallid Sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) are centenarian, potamodromous, rheophiles that historically occupied the Missouri River and Mississippi River basins. Listed on the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1990, population declines are attributed to habitat fragmentation and degradation, as well as overharvest, and hybridization. A knowledge gap exists regarding the extent to which tributaries facilitate key life stages for Pallid Sturgeon. This study evaluated the capacity of acoustic telemetry to monitor the movements of Pallid Sturgeon in a shallow, braided tributary to the Missouri River. The specific objectives were to (1) evaluate the environmental variables influencing the performance of acoustic …

Telemedicine Adoption In Developing Economies: A Systematic Review On The Enablers And Barriers, Zaidbren Macabato, Lemuel Clark Velasco, Art Brian Escabarte, Mae-Lanie Ong Poblete, Armando Isla Jr., Rentor Cafino, Sarah Lizette Aquino-Cafino, Frevy Teofilo-Orencia

Kesmas

Telemedicine’s adoption has been effective in certain contexts despite being controversial in certain settings because of its tendency to cause misdiagnosis and concerns about data privacy. This study aimed to synthesize the research findings on the factors leading to the adoption of telemedicine among developing economies. The study utilized Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis methodology to analyze 27 related literature and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology to map out the factors considered enablers and barriers in adopting telemedicine. Results showed that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions were significant predictors. …

Evaluating Trauma-Informed Design In A Mental Health Setting: A Community-Based Research Case Study, Marie Spence

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This case study utilized a community-based research framework to explore how the Trauma-Informed Design framework can be implemented in a mental health setting. This study focused on the site of Empower Therapy Practice, a private mental health practice in the Denver Metro Area, to engage clients and staff to participate in advisory boards and inform the interior design of a new office space. To explore the application of Trauma-Informed Design, participants engaged in a variety of research activities, including an evaluative questionnaire, Photovoice, and focus group. Advisory board members identified various aspects of Trauma-Informed Design which meaningfully translate to therapeutic …

Financialization And Price Volatility: An Empirical Analysis On Speculation In The Oil Market, Audry F. Oliveira Carnivale

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Financialization has facilitated the trade of futures contracts because of deregulatory policies increasing speculation. Speculation has created a more fragile market inducing riskier investments and aggravating price volatility. Three post-Keynesian theories, the financial instability hypothesis, money manager capitalism and markup, explain how policy altering the banking structure has developed financialization from lax regulation. Previous research has emphasized supply and demand as the main determinants of oil price changes, but it’s important to consider how structural changes from policy stimulating a more financialized economy has impacted volatility. With Brent Crude oil price data and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) open interest and …

Status Quo Of Large-Scale Models, Risks And Challenges, And Recommended Countermeasures, Le Cheng, Yang Xiao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Large-scale models (large models) are not only central to technological innovation, but also deeply entwined with national security, economic transformation, and social governance. This study examines the status quo of large-model development, identifies the key risks and challenges, and proposes response strategies, aiming to provide theoretical and policy insights for China’s navigations in global artificial intelligence (AI) competition and advances technological innovation. The research indicates that competition in the large-model market is fierce, while the industry is gradually consolidating. Competition in large models between China and the United States has escalated into a form of geopolitical contest. From a technical …

Simulating Interventions To Improve Reproducibility In Scientific Publications, Ben G. Fitzpatrick

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

The Wallet And The Gut: Forecasting The 2024 Presidential Election With A State-By-State Adaptation Of The Time-For-Change Model, Simeon A. Betapudi, Hadassah Betapudi

Science University Research Symposium (SURS)

This study adapts Abramowitz's Time-for-Change model to a state-level framework to forecast the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The Time-for-Change model’s focus on the popular vote has become less relevant in recent years, given the growing divergence between popular vote outcomes and electoral college results. Our model addresses these issues by adapting the original Time-for-Change predictors (presidential approval rating, GDP, and time in office) to the state level. Using data from five election cycles (2004–2020), we employ an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to predict incumbent two-party vote share. Unlike the original model, state-level GDP and incumbency duration were found to …

Optimal Har Inference, Liyu Dou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper addresses the problem of deriving heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference for a scalar parameter of interest, under the assumption of a known upper bound on data persistence. Finite-sample optimal tests are derived within the Gaussian location model, revealing that robustness-efficiency tradeoffs are primarily determined by the maximal persistence. With a suitable adjustment to the critical value, the equal-weighted cosine (EWC) test emerges as nearly optimal, wherein the long-run variance is estimated through projections onto q type II cosines. This approach establishes a direct link between the choice of q and persistence assumptions, accompanied by adjustments to the …

Statistical Downscaling Of Climate Datasets With Deep Generative Model And Bayesian Inference, Guiye Li, Guofeng Cao

I-GUIDE Forum

Facing the challenges of global climate change, precise and high spatial resolution climate data are crucial and in pressing need for scientific research and analysis. However, most existing datasets are only available with very coarse spatial resolution and demand large-scale resolution enhancement. Meanwhile, climate datasets own much more intricate textures than natural images. Statistical downscaling or super-resolution (SR) with the deep-learning-based generative model might be a promising approach to address these challenges. It is worth noting that a learned Bayesian reconstruction with generative models (L-BRGM) method was proposed recently. The proposed Bayesian deep learning framework employs a single pre-trained generative …

Essays On Information Technology In Healthcare, Gleb Zavadskiy

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Information technologies (IT) and information systems (IS) have profound significance across various sectors of society, including healthcare, business, education, government, and beyond. First, IT facilitates instant communication globally through email, messaging apps, video conferencing, and social media, revolutionizing how individuals and organizations interact, collaborate, and share information (Hacker et al. 2020; Tang and Hew 2020).

Secondly, the Internet and digital libraries provide worldwide access to vast amounts of information, what makes knowledge and education available to everyone, empowering individuals to learn and stay informed on diverse topics (Haleem et al. 2022). Another aspect of IT systems in various industries is …

A Qualitative Study Exploring Graduated Medical Residents’ Research Experiences, Barriers To Publication And Strategies To Improve Publication Rates From Medical Residents, Dorothy Kamya, Brigette Macharia, Wangari Siika, Caroline Mbuba

Anaesthesiology, East Africa

Background: In Kenya, postgraduate medical residents must complete a research dissertation for their Master of Medicine studies. However, the subsequent publication rate is lower than in higher-income settings, limiting the availability of population-specific data. This study explored residents’ experiences with research, reasons for the low publication rate, and strategies to improve publication rates.

Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted with 9 faculty members and non-academic support staff, as well as 18 Master of Medicine graduates who had successfully completed their research projects, to investigate their experiences with conducting, supervising, and publishing research. The interview data was analysed using inductive …

Development Trends Of Large Models And Tencent’S Independent Innovation Practice, Jason Si

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

The article discusses the emerging trends and application prospects of current large models, using Tencent’s Hunyuan large model as an example. It focuses mainly on innovations and implementations of large models in China. Companies like Google, Meta, and OpenAI have launched powerful models such as Google’s Gemini and Meta’s Llama 3, which have made significant progress in multi-modal applications and reasoning capabilities. China’s large models have significantly improved performance and efficiency by adopting the MoE (Mixture of Experts) architecture. Specifically, with its self-developed MoE trillion-parameter large model and deep learning framework, Tencent has made breakthrough advancements in large model technology …