Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Monte Carlo Simulation In Environmental Risk Assessment--Science, Policy And Legal Issues, Susan R. Poulter

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Dr. Poulter notes that agencies should anticipate judicial requirements for justification of Monte Carlo simulations and, meanwhile, should consider, e.g., whether their use will make risk assessment policy choices more opaque or apparent.

Unrelieved Pain And Distress In Animals: An Analysis Of Usda Data On Experimental Procedures, Martin Stephens, Philip Mendoza, Adrianna Weaver, Tamara Hamilton

Experimentation Collection

Pain and distress are core issues in the field of animal experimentation and in the controversy that surrounds it. We sought to add to the empirical base of the literature on pain and distress by examining government data on experimental procedures that caused unrelieved pain and distress (UPAD) in animals. Of the species regulated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), most of the approximately 100,000 animals subjected to UP AD during the year analyzed (1992) were guinea pigs and hamsters. Most of these animals were used in industry laboratories for various testing procedures, primarily vaccine potency testing. We discuss …

Risk Regulation And The Faces Of Uncertainty, Vern R. Walker

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Dr. Walker addresses the difficulty of regulators' working with potentially inaccurate information and clarifies related aspects of decision making by presenting a taxonomy for the kinds of uncertainty inherent in necessarily incomplete data.

Seasonal Adjustment Of Naira Exchange Rate Statistics 1970-1995, O M. Akinuli

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper uses a current statistical approach to examine and adjust the seasonalities in the Naira exchange rate statistics, vis-a-vis the U.S. Dollar and the pound sterling for a period of twenty-five (25) years. Such study is necessary as it helps to understand the behavioural pattern of a trend in an attempt to predict the future. An investigation like this also helps to expose both the short and long run tendencies of a series which may require urgent or new policy measures to be taken sooner than expected. This paper reviews the regimes of exchange rate under the period, the …

Preference And Motivation Testing, David Fraser, Lindsay R. Matthews

Validation of Animal Experimentation Collection

Since the early 1970s, scientists have used preference tests (tests that require animals to choose between two or more different options or environments) as a means of answering questions about animal welfare. Preference tests have been used to establish animals' preferences for common housing options such as ambient temperature, illumination and preferred types of bedding and flooring; to improve the effectiveness of devices such as loading ramps and nest boxes; and to clarify how strongly animals avoid various aspects of confinement and methods of restraint.

To use preference research to answer questions about animal welfare, three issues need to be …

Institutional Animal Care And Use Committees: A Flawed Paradigm Or Work In Progress?, John P. Gluck, F. Barbara Orlans

Animal Welfare Collection

In his challenging article, Steneck (1997) criticized the creation of the Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC) system established by the 1985 amendments to the Animal Welfare Act. He saw the IACUC review and approval of biomedical and behavioral research with animals as an unnecessary "reassignment" of duties from existing animal care programs to IACUC committees. He argued that the committees are unable to do the work expected of them for basically three reasons: (a) the membership lacks the expertise in matters relevant to animal research and care, (b) there exists an inherent and disabling conflict of interest, and …

Effect Of Room Arrangement And Blood Sample Collection Sequence On Serum Thyroid Hormone And Cortisol Concentrations In Cynomolgus Macaques (Macacafascicularis), Bryan L. Flow, John T. Jaques

Research Methodology and Laboratory Animals Collection

We evaluated the relationship, in cynomolgus macaques (Macacafascicularis), between rank for order of blood collection with serum concentrations of 3,5,3'-triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), free thyroxine (FT4), and serum cortisol. These relationships were determined for males and females that were housed in two room arrangements. For both room arrangements, males and females were housed separately. For room arrangement 1, macaques were housed on both sides of the animal holding room. The sides of the animal holding room were designated as side A or side B. Blood was initially collected from animals on side A, then from animals on side B. Animals …

The Ohio Gis Network: Stage 2 1996 Investment Fund Grant First Year Progress Report To The Ohio Board Of Regents (Ohio Gis Network), Mark Salling

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

The Ohio Geographic Information Systems Network (Ohio GIS-Net) is an innovative consortium of Ohio’s urban and rural universities. The consortium is building a center of excellence where state-of-the-art geographic information systems (GIS) technology is applied to a research agenda that is critical to Ohio's economic development and central to research issues in policy sciences, civil engineering, public administration, economics and the environmental, urban and regional sciences. This cutting edge technology is an essential component of the basic research infrastructure of universities. It is also a critical resource in state and local economic development efforts, building and maintaining public infrastructure, and …

The Ohio Gis Network: Stage 1 1993 Investment Fund Development Grant Progress Report To The Ohio Board Of Regents (Ohio Gis Network), Mark Salling

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

The Ohio Geographic Information Systems Network (Ohio GIS-Net) is an innovative consortium of Ohio’s urban and rural universities. The consortium is building a center of excellence where state-of-the-art geographic information systems (GIS) technology is applied to a research agenda that is critical to Ohio's economic development and central to research issues in policy sciences, civil engineering, public administration, economics and the environmental, urban and regional sciences. This cutting edge technology is an essential component of the basic research infrastructure of universities. It is also a critical resource in state and local economic development efforts, building and maintaining public infrastructure, and …

Weighing Evidence In Sexual Abuse Evaluations: An Introduction To Bayes's Theorem, James Wood

Selected Works Temporary Series

This article introduces readers to Bayes' theorem, a simple mathematical formula that can illuminate general issues and assist evaluators in the field of child sexual abuse. The theorem is applied to a case study of sexual abuse allegations that arose during a custody dispute.

Weighing Evidence In Sexual Abuse Evaluations: An Introduction To Bayes's Theorem, James Wood

Departmental Papers (Psych)

This article introduces readers to Bayes' theorem, a simple mathematical formula that can illuminate general issues and assist evaluators in the field of child sexual abuse. The theorem is applied to a case study of sexual abuse allegations that arose during a custody dispute.

The Implementation Of Federal Government Policy In The Reuse Planning Of Military Installations: A Case Study Of Gentile Air Force Station, John L. Hoover

Theses and Dissertations

Local communities affected by a base closure are uncertain as to their future and look to the federal government for guidance and economic assistance in rebuilding their local economy. The local communities want to close the base with as little federal government interference as possible and convert the base to civilian use with as much federal financial assistance as possible. During 1993-1994 two Air Force Institute of Technology research teams began longitudinal case studies of the base closure and rescue process at Gentile Air Force Station, Ohio to determine the effectiveness of the federal government's current approach. These research teams …

Examination Of Knowledge And Attitudes About Human Sexuality As Predictors Of Adolescent Sexual Behavior, Diane Waymire

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

This study investigated the variables influencing adolescent sexual behavior. Using cognitive learning theory, social learning theory, and social development as an organizing framework, factors influencing adolescent sexual behavior and the respondent's personal demographics were examined for their contribution to explaining adolescent decision-making about sexual activity.

A convenience sample of high school students from a Riverside county school district provided data for the study. Data was gathered by using a self-administered questionnaire. A total of 55 students from two of the three school sites within the district participated in the study during the winter quarter of 1995.

The findings of the …

Comparing Traditional Statistical Models With Neural Network Models: The Case Of The Relation Of Human Performance Factors To The Outcomes Of Military Combat, William Oliver Hedgepeth

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Statistics and neural networks are analytical methods used to learn about observed experience. Both the statistician and neural network researcher develop and analyze data sets, draw relevant conclusions, and validate the conclusions. They also share in the challenge of creating accurate predictions of future events with noisy data.

Both analytical methods are investigated. This is accomplished by examining the veridicality of both with real system data. The real system used in this project is a database of 400 years of historical military combat. The relationships among the variables represented in this database are recognized as being hypercomplex and nonlinear.

The …

Militarywide Survey Of Whole-Grain Food Products And Total Dietary Fiber Analysis Of The Military Ration, John Paul Warber

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Numerous scientific bodies have made the recommendation to increase consumption of whole-grain breads and cereals. This study used a telephone survey to assess the availability of whole-grain foods in a random selection of 109 military installations and 30 military hospitals. Surveyed installations represent over 70% of the active duty military population assigned in the continental United States.

Military food service specialists were asked questions regarding the availability of the following whole-grain products: bread, rolls, buns, flour, pancake mix, brown rice, and ready-to-eat cereals (RTE). They were then asked to read the product ingredient list to validate their perceptions. Perceived availability …

The Media, Risk Assessment And Numbers: They Don't Add Up, Sharon M. Friedman

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Professor Friedman argues that, for risks to be reported accurately, journalism educators must help their students understand science, numbers and statistics.

A Net Impact Study Of The Mtp Program: Briefing Guide For Presentation To Jobs Central, Kevin Hollenbeck

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Predicting Missionary Service, Bert Burraston

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis was to test the antecedents of religiosity on religious commitment. Specifically, what dimensions of religiosity predict if a young-adult Mormon male will serve a mission. Both Logistic Regression and LISREL were used to examine data from the Young Men's Study, in order to predict Mission. The six variables, Religious Intention, Public Religiosity, Religious Negativism, Family Structure, Tithing, and Smoking were found to have direct effects on missionary service. Four more variables were found to have important indirect effects on Mission. The four variables are Parents Church Attendance, Home Religious Observances, Agree With Parents' Values, and …

The Value And Utility Of Animals In Research, Andrew N. Rowan, Joan C. Weer

Validation of Animal Experimentation Collection

The Tufts University School of Veterinary Medicine, Center for Animals and Public Policy, sponsored an invitational seminar, The Value and Utility of Animals in Research, on October 14, 1993, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Baltimore, Maryland. This seminar was the second in a series of three organized by the Center for Animals and Public Policy and supported by The Pew Charitable Trusts to deal with issues relating to the use of animals in research. The first seminar, Biology Education and Animals: Opportunities and Issues, was held in the spring of 1993. The third meeting, at the National Press Club …

Examination Of Psychological Type And Preferred Negotiation Tactics And Strategies Of Contract Negotiators, John P. Hebert, Alan J. Meade

Theses and Dissertations

This research identified the psychological types of government and industry contract negotiators and determined whether their preference for using negotiation tactics and strategies were correlated with their respective psychological types. A survey consisting of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and a questionnaire concerning use of negotiation tactics and strategies was mailed to 2,000 contracting professionals of the National Contract Management Association (NCMA). During May and June 1992, 627 usable surveys were received. The MBTI results were paired with the responses to the negotiation tactics and strategies questionnaire. These results were analyzed on a microcomputer using the DBase IV, Excel, and …

Unit Roots, Cointegration And Spot And Forward Rates Of The Rupees, P G Apte

IIMB Management Review

The hypothesis of unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate as a predictor of the future spot rate has been subjected to extensive empirical testing. some researchers use the level form specification in which the actual spot rate is regressed on the k-period forward rate k periods age. While other use the percent change specification in which the k-period log change in spot rate is regressed on the forward premium /discount. The resuits from the two specifications are widely different and often contradictory. The problem lies in the presence of unit roots in both the spot and forward rate series and …

Book Review, Thomas G. Field Jr.

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Review of the following book: THOMAS GILOVICH, How WE KNOW WHAT ISN'T SO: THE FALLIABILITY OF REASON IN EVERYDAY LIFE. (The Free Press 1991) [216 pp.] Index, notes. CIP: 90-26727; ISBN: 0-02-911705-4. [Cloth $19.95. 866 Third Ave. New York, NY 10022.]

Reply To Valverde, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Professor Thompson responds to Valverde's argument, in the last issue, that his approach to Risk puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism. In doing so, he asserts, inter alia, that anchoring Risk judgments in a probabilistic framework does not go far enough in rejecting reigning Risk-analysis notions of "real Risk."

The Cognitive Status Of Risk: A Response To Thompson, L. James Valverde

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

Discussing the role that probability theory should play in Risk analysis and management, Dr. Valverde argues that Thompson's approach puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism in addressing the question, "When are Risks real?"

Dysfunctional Attitudes, Life Stress And Coping Processes, Deborah Desalliers

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

The findings of recent investigations earmarked chronic daily stressors as being highly related to stress levels. In addition, researchers are promoting a more integrative model of stress. The stress response is no longer thought of in strictly linear terms, i.e. an event causes stress. Rather, cognitive factors, existing within the human mind itself, strongly influence our coping processes and the chronic stress we experience.

Canonical correlation analysis was used to study how dysfunctional attitudes, a negative cognitive factor, were related to individuals' daily hassles and coping processes. An increase in dysfunctional attitudes was found to correspond to an increase in …

Municipal Capital Maintenance And Fiscal Distress, Mary K. Bumgarner, Jorge Martinez-Vazques, David L. Sjoquist

Faculty Articles

This paper formalizes and empirically tests the hypothesis that the deficient maintenance of public infrastructure is caused by fiscal distress. We utilize a production-decision framework in which public officials combine maintenance and new capital to produce a desired level of capital services. The behavior implied in the fiscal distress hypothesis is treated as perverse deviations from the optimal production path. The empirical findings from cross-sectional expenditures data give support to the fiscal distress hypothesis.

The Effect Of Age Misreporting In China On The Calculation Of Mortality Rates At Very High Ages, Ansley J. Coale, Shaomin Li

Management Faculty Publications

When mortality rates by age are calculated from recorded deaths and enumerated populations, rates at higher ages are typically in error because of misstated ages. Mortality rates for China in 1981 have been calculated from the number of deaths in 1981 in each household recorded in the 1982 census, and from the census population back-projected one year. Because age was determined from date of birth, and because persons of the Chinese culture have very precise knowledge of date of birth, the mortality rates even at high ages should be unusually accurate. This expectation is fulfilled for most of China, but …

Linear And Nonlinear Appraisal Models, Billie Ann Brotman

Faculty Articles

In this article, the author uses nonlinear models to forecast the value of four important housing characteristics. The article explains, for example, that each additional bedroom does not add a set incremental dollar figure to the value of a house. The results suggest that nonlinear models predict housing values better than linear ones.

The Truncated Cauchy Distribution: Estimation Of Parameters And Application To Stock Returns, Paul G. Staneski

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

The problem addressed in this dissertation is the existence and estimation of the parameters of a truncated Cauchy distribution. It is known that when a number of distributions with infinite support are truncated to a finite interval that the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter fails to exist with positive probability. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions which give rise to instances of non-existence have been found for the exponential (Deemer and Votaw (1955)), gamma (Broeder (1955), Hegde and Dahiya (1989)), Weibull (Mittal and Dahiya (1989)) and normal distribution (Barndorff-Nielsen (1978), Mittal and Dahiya (1987), Hegde and Dahiya (1989)). …

Identifying Directional Properties Of Spatial Point Patterns An Investigation Of Two Methods, Rolf Puchtinger

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Analyses of spatial point patterns tend to focus on deviations from randomness by either clustering or regularity. One assumption of these analyses implies that the point generating process is equal in all directions. However, the association of the location of points with a process biased in one or more directions is widely neglected due to a lack of appropriate statistical procedures. This is surprising, since patterns generated by directional processes are important in Geography. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the blunt-triangle method and the third moment method for their potential of identifying directionality in spatial point patterns. …