Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Optimization Of Dynamic Objective Functions Using Path Integrals, Paramahansa Pramanik

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Path integrals are used to find an optimal strategy for a firm under a Walrasian system. We define dynamic optimal strategies and develop an integration method to capture all non-additive non-convex strategies. We also show that the method can solve the non-linear case, for example Merton-Garman-Hamiltonian system, which the traditional Pontryagin maximum principle cannot solve in closed form. Furthermore, we assume that the strategy space and time are inseparable with respect to a contract. Under this assumption we show that the strategy spacetime is a dynamic curved Liouville-like 2-brane quantum gravity surface under asymmetric information and that traditional Euclidean geometry …

Bayesian Dynamic Network Actor Models With Application To South Korean Covid-19 Patient Movement Data, Antonio Arrizza, Alberto Caimo

Articles

Motivated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this article intro- duces Bayesian dynamic network actor models for the analysis of infected individuals’ movements in South Korea during the first three months of 2020. The relational event data modelling framework makes use of network statistics capturing the structure of movement events from and to several country’s municipalities. The fully probabilistic Bayesian approach allows to quantify the uncertainty associated to the relational tendencies explaining where and when movement events are established and where they are directed. The observed patient movements’ patterns at an early stage of the pandemic can provide interesting insights about …

The Family Of Bicircular Matroids Closed Under Duality, Vaidy Sivaraman, Daniel Slilaty

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

We characterize the 3-connected members of the intersection of the class of bicircular and cobi- circular matroids. Aside from some exceptional matroids with rank and corank at most 5, this class consists of just the free swirls and their minors.

Exponential And Hypoexponential Distributions: Some Characterizations, George Yanev

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

The (general) hypoexponential distribution is the distribution of a sum of independent exponential random variables. We consider the particular case when the involved exponential variables have distinct rate parameters. We prove that the following converse result is true. If for some n ≥ 2, X1, X2, . . . , Xn are independent copies of a random variable X with unknown distribution F and a specific linear combination of Xj ’s has hypoexponential distribution, then F is exponential. Thus, we obtain new characterizations of the exponential distribution. As corollaries of the main results, we extend some previous characterizations established recently …

Bayesian Variable Selection Methods For Genome-Wide Association Studies With Categorical Phenotypes, Benazir Rowe

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) attempt to find the associations between genetic markers and studied traits (phenotypes). The problem of GWAS is complex and various methods have been developed to approach it. One of such methods is Bayesian variable selection (BVS). We describe the BVS methods in detail and demonstrate the ability of BVS method Posterior Inference via Model Averaging and Subset Selection (piMASS) to improve the power of detecting phenotype-associated genetic loci, potentially leading to new discoveries from existing data without increasing the sample size.

We present several ways to improve and extend the applicability of piMASS for GWAS. The …

Delta Hedging Of Financial Options Using Reinforcement Learning And An Impossibility Hypothesis, Ronak Tali

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

In this thesis we take a fresh perspective on delta hedging of financial options as undertaken by market makers. The current industry standard of delta hedging relies on the famous Black Scholes formulation that prescribes continuous time hedging in a way that allows the market maker to remain risk neutral at all times. But the Black Scholes formulation is a deterministic model that comes with several strict assumptions such as zero transaction costs, log normal distribution of the underlying stock prices, etc. In this paper we employ Reinforcement Learning to redesign the delta hedging problem in way that allows us …

An Analysis Of Growth Of The Community Integration Psychological Score In An Ethnically Diverse Population Experiencing Homelessness In A Permanent Supportive Housing Program Using Hierarchical Mixed Modeling, Leah Hollis Puglisi

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Hierarchical models are becoming increasingly common in epidemiological and psychological research. When analyzing data from such studies, the nested structure of the data must be taken into account. Mixed modeling in conjunction with hierarchical mixed modeling allows researchers to ask broad questions about the population of interest. Modeling under restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML), as opposed to full maximum likelihood estimation (ML), increases the accuracy of estimates for the random effects in the model. We use hierarchical mixed modeling under REML estimation to analyze which factors increase “community integration”, a concept and a construct developed and used in the mental …

A Posteriori Error Estimates For Elliptic Eigenvalue Problems Using Auxiliary Subspace Techniques, Stefano Giani, Luka Grubišić, Harri Hakula, Jeffrey S. Ovall

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We propose an a posteriori error estimator for high-order p- or hp-finite element discretizations of selfadjoint linear elliptic eigenvalue problems that is appropriate for estimating the error in the approximation of an eigenvalue cluster and the corresponding invariant subspace. The estimator is based on the computation of approximate error functions in a space that complements the one in which the approximate eigenvectors were computed. These error functions are used to construct estimates of collective measures of error, such as the Hausdorff distance between the true and approximate clusters of eigenvalues, and the subspace gap between the corresponding true and approximate …

From Wave Propagation To Spin Dynamics: Mathematical And Computational Aspects, Oleksii Beznosov

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In this work we concentrate on two separate topics which pose certain numerical challenges. The first topic is the spin dynamics of electrons in high-energy circular accelerators. We introduce a stochastic differential equation framework to study spin depolarization and spin equilibrium. This framework allows the mathematical study of known equations and new equations modelling the spin distribution of an electron bunch. A spin distribution is governed by a so-called Bloch equation, which is a linear Fokker-Planck type PDE, in general posed in six dimensions. We propose three approaches to approximate solutions, using analytical and modern numerical techniques. We also present …

New Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Approximation Theory For Pde Solution Data, Sarah Locke, John R. Singler

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In our previous work [J. R. Singler, SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 52 (2014), pp. 852- 876], we considered the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of time varying PDE solution data taking values in two different Hilbert spaces. We considered various POD projections of the data and obtained new results concerning POD projection errors and error bounds for POD reduced order models of PDEs. In this work, we improve on our earlier results concerning POD projections by extending to a more general framework that allows for nonorthogonal POD projections and seminorms. We obtain new exact error formulas and convergence results for POD …

A Natural Frenet Frame For Null Curves On The Lightlike Cone In Minkowski Space ℝ⁴₂, Nemat Abazari, Martin Bohner, Ilgin Sağer, Alireza Sedaghatdoost, Yusuf Yayli

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this paper, we investigate the representation of curves on the lightlike cone ℚ³₂ in Minkowski space ℝ⁴₂ by structure functions. In addition, with this representation, we classify all of the null curves on the lightlike cone ℚ³₂ in four types, and we obtain a natural Frenet frame for these null curves. Furthermore, for this natural Frenet frame, we calculate curvature functions of a null curve, especially the curvature function κ₂ = 0 , and we show that any null curve on the lightlike cone is a helix. Finally, we find all curves with constant curvature functions.

Analyzing Yankees And Red Sox Sentiment Over The Course Of A Season, Connor Koch

Honors Projects in Data Science

This paper investigates data collected on twitter which references the Yankees or Red Sox during the 2020 Major League Baseball (MLB) season. The objective is to analyze the sentiment of tweets referencing the Yankees and Red Sox over the course of the season. In addition, an investigation of the networks within the data and the topics that were prevalent will be conducted. The 2020 MLB season was started late because of the COVID-19 pandemic and was a season like no other. The expectation of a dataset revolving around baseball is that the topics discussed would be about baseball. The findings …

Invited Article By M. Gidea Extreme Events And Emergency Scales, Veniamin Smirnov, Zhuanzhuan Ma, Dimitri Volchenkov

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

An event is extreme if its magnitude exceeds the threshold. A choice of a threshold is subject to uncertainty caused by a method, the size of available data, a hypothesis on statistics, etc. We assess the degree of uncertainty by the Shannon's entropy calculated on the probability that the threshold changes at any given time. If the amount of data is not sufficient, an observer is in the state of Lewis Carroll's Red Queen who said "When you say hill, I could show you hills, in comparison with which you'd call that a valley". If we have enough data, the …

Hereditarily Irreducible Maps, Hussam Abobaker, Włodzimierz J. Charatonik

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

A map f:X→Y from a continuum X onto a continuum Y is said to be hereditarily irreducible, if f(A)⊊f(B) for any subcontinua A and B such that A⊊B. We investigate properties of hereditarily irreducible maps between continua. Special attention is given to maps between graphs and maps from the interval.

A Data Analytic Framework For Physical Fatigue Management Using Wearable Sensors, Zahra Sedighi Maman, Ying-Ju Chen, Amir Baghdadi, Seamus Lombardo, Lora A. Cavuoto, Fadel M. Megahed

Mathematics Faculty Publications

The use of expert systems in optimizing and transforming human performance has been limited in practice due to the lack of understanding of how an individual's performance deteriorates with fatigue accumulation, which can vary based on both the worker and the workplace conditions. As a first step toward realizing the human-centered approach to artificial intelligence and expert systems, this paper lays the foundation for a data analytic approach to managing fatigue in physically-demanding workplaces. The proposed framework capitalizes on continuously collected human performance data from wearable sensor technologies, and is centered around four distinct phases of fatigue: (a) detection, where …

A Two-Stage Machine Learning Framework To Predict Heart Transplantation Survival Probabilities Over Time With A Monotonic Probability Constraint, Hamidreza Ahady Dolatsaraa, Ying-Ju (Tessa) Chen, Christy Evans, Ashish Gupta, Fadel M. Megahed

Mathematics Faculty Publications

The overarching goal of this paper is to develop a modeling framework that can be used to obtain personalized, data-driven and monotonically constrained probability curves. This research is motivated by the important problem of improving the predictions for organ transplantation outcomes, which can inform updates made to organ allocation protocols, post-transplantation care pathways, and clinical resource utilization. In pursuit of our overarching goal and motivating problem, we propose a novel two-stage machine learning-based framework for obtaining monotonic probabilities over time. The first stage uses the standard approach of using independent machine learning models to predict transplantation outcomes for each time-period …

Role Of Influence In Complex Networks, Nur Dean

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Game theory is a wide ranging research area; that has attracted researchers from various fields. Scientists have been using game theory to understand the evolution of cooperation in complex networks. However, there is limited research that considers the structure and connectivity patterns in networks, which create heterogeneity among nodes. For example, due to the complex ways most networks are formed, it is common to have some highly “social” nodes, while others are highly isolated. This heterogeneity is measured through metrics referred to as “centrality” of nodes. Thus, the more “social” nodes tend to also have higher centrality.

In this thesis, …

Evaluation Of China Shipping Hub-And-Spoke Network Based On Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (Hhi), Wenjin Sun

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

“Playing The Whole Game”: A Data Collection And Analysis Exercise With Google Calendar, Albert Y. Kim, Johanna Hardin

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

We provide a computational exercise suitable for early introduction in an undergraduate statistics or data science course that allows students to “play the whole game” of data science: performing both data collection and data analysis. While many teaching resources exist for data analysis, such resources are not as abundant for data collection given the inherent difficulty of the task. Our proposed exercise centers around student use of Google Calendar to collect data with the goal of answering the question “How do I spend my time?” On the one hand, the exercise involves answering a question with near universal appeal, but …

Inverse Limits And Atomic Projections, Włodzimierz J. Charatonik, Faruq A. Mena, Robert Paul Roe

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

We consider generalized inverse limits of continua with bonding functions Fn that have the projection of Graph (Fn) onto the second (first) factor atomic and images (pre-image) of points are zero-dimensional. For such bonding functions we show that under some easily verified conditions that if the first (all) factor space(s) has a certain property then the inverse limit space must have this property. The properties considered include hereditary decomposability, hereditary indecomposability, hereditary unicoherence, arc-likeness, and tree-likeness. We illustrate the theorems by several examples.

Energy Stable Numerical Schemes For Ternary Cahn-Hilliard System, Wenbin Chen, Cheng Wang, Shufen Wang, Xiaoming Wang, Steven M. Wise

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

We present and analyze a uniquely solvable and unconditionally energy stable numerical scheme for the ternary Cahn-Hilliard system, with a polynomial pattern nonlinear free energy expansion. One key difficulty is associated with presence of the three mass components, though a total mass constraint reduces this to two components. Another numerical challenge is to ensure the energy stability for the nonlinear energy functional in the mixed product form, which turns out to be non-convex, non-concave in the three-phase space. to overcome this subtle difficulty, we add a few auxiliary terms to make the combined energy functional convex in the three-phase space, …

Analyzing The Fractal Dimension Of Various Musical Pieces, Nathan Clark

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

One of the most common tools for evaluating data is regression. This technique, widely used by industrial engineers, explores linear relationships between predictors and the response. Each observation of the response is a fixed linear combination of the predictors with an added error element. The method is built on the assumption that this error is normally distributed across all observations and has a mean of zero. In some cases, it has been found that the inherent variation is not the result of a random variable, but is instead the result of self-symmetric properties of the observations. For data with these …

Integrating Data Science Ethics Into An Undergraduate Major, Benjamin Baumer, Randi L. Garcia, Albert Y. Kim, Katherine M. Kinnaird, Miles Q. Ott

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

We present a programmatic approach to incorporating ethics into an undergraduate major in statistical and data sciences. We discuss departmental-level initiatives designed to meet the National Academy of Sciences recommendation for weaving ethics into the curriculum from top-to-bottom as our majors progress from our introductory courses to our senior capstone course, as well as from side-to-side through co-curricular programming. We also provide six examples of data science ethics modules used in five different courses at our liberal arts college, each focusing on a different ethical consideration. The modules are designed to be portable such that they can be flexibly incorporated …

Uniform Random Variate Generation With The Linear Congruential Method, Joseph Free

PANDION: The Osprey Journal of Research and Ideas

This report considers the issue of using a specific linear congruential generator (LCG) to create random variates from the uniform(0,1) distribution. The LCG is used to generate multiple samples of pseudo-random numbers and statistical computation techniques are used to assess whether those samples could have resulted from a uniform(0,1) distribution. Source code is included with this report in the appendix along with annotations.

Lattice Of Maximal-Primary Ideals In Quadratic Orders, Ryan Bridges

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

An order is a subring of the ring of integers of an algebraic extension, Peruginelli and Zanardo classified the lattices of orders with prime index inside te ring of integers of quadratic extensions of the rational numbers. The lattices are quite striking and have different layered structure depending on whether the prime is inert, split, or ramified. This thesis considers the orders which have prime power index inside the Gaussian integers. This is a nice generalization of the work of Peruginelli and Zanardo, and succeeds in a few classifications of specific instances of orders derived from inert primes.

Maintaining Rich Dialogic Interactions In The Transition To Synchronous Online Learning, Hyunyi Jung, Corey Brady

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

A central premise across a variety of educational research and policy documents is that students learn with greater understanding in classrooms where they engage in exploring, reasoning, and communicating about their thinking (Hiebert and Wearne, 1993; National Council of Teachers of English, 2016; National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, 2000). With the recent emergency transition to remote online instruction in higher education, opportunities for rich synchronous learning have been diminished in many courses. Most instructors have had to adapt rapidly from in-person classroom settings to online environments without sufficient time and training. Accordingly, college students have shared concerns about the …

"A Comparison Of Variable Selection Methods Using Bootstrap Samples From Environmental Metal Mixture Data", Paul-Yvann Djamen

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In this thesis, I studied a newly developed variable selection method SODA, and three customarily used variable selection methods: LASSO, Elastic net, and Random forest for environmental mixture data. The motivating datasets have neuro-developmental status as responses and metal measurements and demographic variables as covariates. The challenges for variable selections include (1) many measured metal concentrations are highly correlated, (2) there are many possible ways of modeling interactions among the metals, (3) the relationships between the outcomes and explanatory variables are possibly nonlinear, (4) the signal to noise ratio in the real data may be low. To compare these methods …

Quantitatively Motivated Model Development Framework: Downstream Analysis Effects Of Normalization Strategies, Jessica M. Rudd

Doctor of Data Science and Analytics Dissertations

Through a review of epistemological frameworks in social sciences, history of frameworks in statistics, as well as the current state of research, we establish that there appears to be no consistent, quantitatively motivated model development framework in data science, and the downstream analysis effects of various modeling choices are not uniformly documented. Examples are provided which illustrate that analytic choices, even if justifiable and statistically valid, have a downstream analysis effect on model results. This study proposes a unified model development framework that allows researchers to make statistically motivated modeling choices within the development pipeline. Additionally, a simulation study is …

On The Noisy Gradient Descent That Generalizes As Sgd, Jingfeng Wu, Wenqing Hu, Haoyi Xiong, Jun Huan, Vladimir Braverman, Zhanxing Zhu

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

The gradient noise of SGD is considered to play a central role in the observed strong generalization abilities of deep learning. While past studies confirm that the magnitude and covariance structure of gradient noise are critical for regularization, it remains unclear whether or not the class of noise distributions is important. In this work we provide negative results by showing that noises in classes different from the SGD noise can also effectively regularize gradient descent. Our finding is based on a novel observation on the structure of the SGD noise: it is the multiplication of the gradient matrix and a …

Methods Of Uncertainty Quantification For Physical Parameters, Kellin Rumsey

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an umbrella term referring to a broad class of methods which typically involve the combination of computational modeling, experimental data and expert knowledge to study a physical system. A parameter, in the usual statistical sense, is said to be physical if it has a meaningful interpretation with respect to the physical system. Physical parameters can be viewed as inherent properties of a physical process and have a corresponding true value. Statistical inference for physical parameters is a challenging problem in UQ due to the inadequacy of the computer model. In this thesis, we provide a comprehensive …