Oceanography Commons^™

Results Of The Second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (Isomip+), Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, Qin Zhou

CCPO Publications

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice …

Multi-Model Estimate Of Antarctic Ice-Shelf Basal Mass Budget And Ocean Drivers, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, Ralph Timmerman

CCPO Publications

Societal adaptation to rising sea levels requires robust projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's retreat, particularly due to ocean-driven basal melting of its fringing ice shelves. Recent advances in ocean models that simulate ice-shelf melting offer an opportunity to reduce uncertainties in ice–ocean interactions. Here, we compare several community-contributed, circum-Antarctic ocean simulations to highlight inter-model differences, evaluate agreement with satellite-derived melt rates, and examine underlying physical processes. All but one simulation use a melting formulation depending on both thermal driving (T^⋆) and friction velocity (u^⋆), which together represent the thermal and ocean current forcings at the …

Integrating Climatological-Hydrodynamic Modeling And Paleohurricane Records To Assess Storm Surge Risk, Amirhosein Begmohammadi, Christine Y. Blackshaw, Ning Lin, Avantika Gori, Elizabeth Wallace, Kerry Emanuel, Jeffrey P. Donnelly

OES Faculty Publications

Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological-hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling …

Delayed Coastal Inundations Caused By Ocean Dynamics Post-Hurricane Matthew, Kyungmin Park, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tal Ezer, Fei Yi

CCPO Publications

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the …

On The Links Between Sea Level And Temperature Variations In The Chesapeake Bay And The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke

CCPO Publications

Recent studies found that on long time scales there are often unexplained opposite trends in sea level variability between the upper and lower Chesapeake Bay (CB). Therefore, daily sea level and temperature records were analyzed in two locations, Norfolk in the southern CB and Baltimore in the northern CB; surface currents from Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) near the mouth of CB were also analyzed to examine connections between the CB and the Atlantic Ocean. The observations in the bay were compared with daily Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) observations during 2005–2021. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis was used …

Sediment Delivery To Sustain The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change And Anthropogenic Impacts, Jessica L. Raff, Steven L. Goodbred Jr., Jennifer L. Pickering, Ryan S. Sincavage, John C. Ayers, Md. Saddam Hossain, Carol A. Wilson, Chris Paola, Michael S. Steckler, Dhiman R. Mondal, Jean-Louis Grimaud, Celine Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Humayun Akhter, Brandee N. Carlson, Elizabeth L. Chamberlain, Meagan Dejter, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Richard P. Hale, Mahfuzur R. Khan, Md. Golam Muktadir, Md. Munsur Rahman, Lauren A. Williams

OES Faculty Publications

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to …

Acceleration Of U.S. Southeast And Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified By Internal Climate Variability, Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist

CCPO Publications

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr⁻¹ since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the …

Drivers Of 20th Century Sea-Level Change In Southern New Zealand Determined From Proxy And Instrumental Records, Ed Garrett, W. Roland Gehrels, Bruce W. Hayward, Rewi Newnham, Maria J. Gehrels, Craig J. Morey, Sönke Dangendorf

CCPO Publications

In this paper we present new proxy-based sea-level reconstructions for southern New Zealand spanning the last millennium. These palaeo sea-level records usefully complement sparse Southern Hemisphere proxy and tide-gauge sea-level datasets and, in combination with instrumental observations, can test hypotheses about the drivers of 20th century global sea-level change, including land-based ice melt and regional sterodynamics. We develop sea-level transfer functions from regional datasets of salt-marsh foraminifera to establish a new proxy-based sea-level record at Mokomoko Inlet, at the southern tip of the South Island, and to improve the previously published sea-level reconstruction at Pounawea, located about 110 km to …

Towards An Integrated Assessment Of Sea-Level Observations Along The U.S. Atlantic Coast, Brett A. Buzzanga

OES Theses and Dissertations

Sea levels are rising globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, local sea levels that impact coastal ecosystems often differ from the global trend, sometimes by a factor of two or more. Improved understanding of this regional variability provides insights into geophysical processes and has implications for coastal communities developing resilience to ongoing sea-level rise. This dissertation conducts an investigation of sea level and its contributing processes at multiple spatial scales. Focusing on primarily interannual time-scales and data-driven approaches, new data sources and technologies are utilized to reduce current uncertainties.

First, sea-level trends are assessed over the global ocean and …

Understanding The Effect Of Internal Climate Variability On 20th Century Indian Ocean Sea Level: Results From Newly Reconstructed Sea Level Data, Praveen Kumar

OES Theses and Dissertations

Densely populated low-lying coastal zones of countries that border the Indian Ocean are at risk due to sea level rise. However, sea level change in the Indian Ocean is poorly understood primarily due to short and sparse tide gauge observations. Although satellite altimetry provides accurate basin-wide sea level measurements, trends computed from its relatively short (~27-year) data record are heavily influenced by interannual to multi-decadal variability. To accurately project future Indian Ocean sea level trends using altimeter data it is imperative that trends associated with fluctuating internal variability (interannual-decadal) be identified and extracted, which in turn requires long (~100-year) data. …

An Assessment Of Regional Icesat-2 Sea-Level Trends, Brett Buzzanga, Eduard Heijkoop, Benjamin D. Hamlington, R. Steven Nerem, Alex Gardner

OES Faculty Publications

Sea-level rise is an important indicator of ongoing climate change and well observed by satellite altimetry. However, observations from conventional altimetry degrade at the coast where regional sea-level changes can deviate from the open-ocean and impact local communities. With the 2018 launch of the laser altimeter onboard ICESat-2, new high-resolution observations of ice, land, and ocean elevations are available. Here we assess the potential benefits of sea level measured by ICESat-2 by comparing to data from Jason-3 and tide gauges. We find good agreement in the linear rates computed from the independent observations, with an absolute average residual of 3.60 …

A Pre-Industrial Sea-Level Rise Hotspot Along The Atlantic Coast Of North America, W. R. Gehrels, Sönke Dangendorf, N. L. M. Barlow, M. H. Saher, A. J. Long, P. L. Woodworth, C. G. Piecuch, K. Berk

CCPO Publications

The Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras has been proposed as a “hotspot” of late 20th century sea‐level rise. Here we test, using salt‐marsh proxy sea‐level records, if this coast experienced enhanced sea‐level rise over earlier multidecadal‐centennial periods. While we find in agreement with previous studies that 20th century rates of sea‐level change were higher compared to rates during preceding centuries, rates of 18th century sea‐level rise were only slightly lower, suggesting that the “hotspot” is a reoccurring feature for at least three centuries. Proxy sea‐level records from North America (Iceland) are negatively (positively) correlated with centennial …

An Oceanographic Perspective On Early Human Migrations To The Americas, Thomas C. Royer, Bruce Finney

OES Faculty Publications

Early migrants to the Americas were likely seaworthy. Many archaeologists now agree that the first humans who traveled to the Americas more than 15,000 years before present (yr BP) used a coastal North Pacific route. Their initial migration was from northeastern Asia to Beringia where they settled for thousands to more than ten thousand years. Oceanographic conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (18,000-24,000 yr BP) would have enhanced their boat journeys along the route from Beringia to the Pacific Northwest because the influx of freshwater that drives the opposing Alaska Coastal Current was small, global sea level was at least …

Global Sea Level Reconstruction For 1900-2015 Reveals Regional Variability In Ocean Dynamics And An Unprecedented Long Weakening In The Gulf Stream Flow Since The 1990s, Tal Ezer, Sönke Dangendorf

CCPO Publications

A new monthly global sea level reconstruction for 1900-2015 was analyzed and compared with various observations to examine regional variability and trends in the ocean dynamics of the western North Atlantic Ocean and the U.S. East Coast. A proxy of the Gulf Stream (GS) strength in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (GS-MAB) and in the South Atlantic Bight (GS-SAB) were derived from sea level differences across the GS in the two regions. While decadal oscillations dominate the 116-year record, the analysis showed an unprecedented long period of weakening in the GS flow since the late 1990s. The only other period of long …

20th Century Multivariate Indian Ocean Regional Sea Level Reconstruction, Praveen Kumar, Benjamin Hamlington, Se-Hyeon Cheon, Weiqing Han, Phillip Thompson

CCPO Publications

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastlines, Indian Ocean sea level variability over the past century is poorly understood relative to other ocean basins primarily, due to the short and sparse observational records. In an attempt to overcome the limitations imposed by the lack of adequate observations, we have produced a 20th century Indian Ocean sea level reconstruction product using a new multivariate reconstruction technique. This technique uses sea level pressure and sea surface temperature in addition to sea level data to help constrain basin‐wide sea level variability by (1) the removal of large spurious …

Studies Of The Long-Term Change Of Global Mean And Regional Sea Surface Height, Yingli Zhu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Sea level change could have profound impacts on our society. We report here on three related sea level change problems. First, a variety of regression models have predicted different rates for global mean sea level rise over the past century. Some of these models are accelerating and others are not. We ask whether we can distinguish between these using a new nonparametric noise model that we have developed. Simulations show that we can, and further imply that GMSL is rising at an accelerating rate. Second, historical global mean sea level is reconstructed from tide gauges that are located along coastlines …

The Dominant Global Modes Of Recent Internal Sea Level Variability, Benjamin Dillon Hamlington, Se-Hyeon Cheon, Christopher G. Piecuch, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Philip R. Thompson, Kwang-Yul Kim, John Thomas Reager, Felix W. Landerer, Thomas Frederikse

OES Faculty Publications

The advances in the modern sea level observing system have allowed for a new level of knowledge of regional and global sea level in recent years. The combination of data from satellite altimeters, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, and Argo profiling floats has provided a clearer picture of the different contributors to sea level change, leading to an improved understanding of how sea level has changed in the present and, by extension, may change in the future. As the overlap between these records has recently extended past a decade in length, it is worth examining the extent to …

Impacts Of Basin-Scale Climate Modes On Coastal Sea Level: A Review, Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Philip Thompson, Tal Ezer, Hindu Palanisamy, Xuebin Zhang, Catia M. Domingues, Lei Zhang, Dongliang Yuan

CCPO Publications

Global sea level rise (SLR) associated with a warming climate exerts significant stress on coastal societies and low-lying island regions. The rates of coastal SLR observed in the past few decades, however, have large spatial and temporal differences from the global mean, which to a large part have been attributed to basin-scale climate modes. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about climate modes’ impacts on coastal sea level variability from interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Relevant climate modes, their impacts and associated driving mechanisms through both remote and local processes are elaborated separately for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic …

Modeling Ocean Eddies On Antarctica's Cold Water Continental Shelves And Their Effects On Ice Shelf Basal Melting, Stefanie L. Mack, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Dennis J. Mcgillicuddy, Laurence Padman

CCPO Publications

Changes in the rate of ocean‐driven basal melting of Antarctica's ice shelves can alter the rate at which the grounded ice sheet loses mass and contributes to sea level change. Melt rates depend on the inflow of ocean heat, which occurs through steady circulation and eddy fluxes. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of eddy fluxes for ice shelves affected by relatively warm intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water. However, ice shelves on cold water continental shelves primarily melt from dense shelf water near the grounding line and from light surface water at the ice shelf front. Eddy effects on basal …

Sea Squad, Liam Geary Baulch

The Goose

The Sea Squad is a band of cheerleaders against climate change. Taking action as a team in formation, they gather momentum, inviting all people to cheer with them, mimicking the infinitely expandable nature of the seas' molecular structure. The work was developed and performed as a bilingual project at Est-Nord-Est in Saint-Jean-Port-Joli, Quebec, Canada, and has since been performed and exhibited internationally. The following poems are some of the chants that Sea Squad use to get a crowd cheering together against climate change.

Reconstruction Of Sea Level Around The Korean Peninsula Using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Se-Hyeon Cheon, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Kyung-Duck Suh

OES Faculty Publications

Since the advent of the modern satellite altimeter era, the understanding of the sea level has increased dramatically. The satellite altimeter record, however, dates back only to the 1990s. The tide gauge record, on the other hand, extends through the 20th century but with poor spatial coverage when compared to the satellites. Many studies have been conducted to create a dataset with the spatial coverage of the satellite datasets and the temporal length of the tide gauge records by finding novel ways to combine the satellite data and tide gauge data in what is known as sea level reconstruction. However, …

Observation-Driven Estimation Of The Spatial Variability Of 20th Century Sea Level Rise, B. D. Hamlington, A. Burgos, P. R. Thompson, F. W. Landerer, C. G. Piecuch, S. Adhikari, L. Caron, J. T. Reager, E. R. Ivins

OES Faculty Publications

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20^th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide …

Climate-Change-Driven Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Detected In The Altimeter Era, R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters, G. T. Mitchum

CCPO Publications

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y². Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

The Effect Of The El Nino-Southern Oscillation On U.S. Regional And Coastal Sea Level, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, K. -Y. Kim, R. S. Nerem, L. P. Atkinson, P. R. Thompson

CCPO Publications

Although much of the focus on future sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, on shorter time scales, internal climate variability can contribute significantly to regional sea level. Such sea level variability should be taken into consideration when planning efforts to mitigate the effects of future sea level change. In this study, we quantify the contribution to regional sea level of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis (CSEOF) of the long reconstructed sea level data set and of a set of U.S. tide gauges, two global modes dominated by Pacific Ocean …

Sea Level Trends In Southeast Asian Seas, M. W. Strassburg, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Manrung, J. Lumban-Gaol, B. Nababan, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically …

Aptian To Santonian Foraminiferal Biostratigraphy And Paleoenvironmental Change In The Sverdrup Basin As Revealed At Glacier Fiord, Axel Heiberg Island, Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Claudia J. Schröder-Adams, Jens O. Herrle, Ashton F. Embry, James W. Haggart, Jennifer M. Galloway, Adam T. Pugh, David M. Harwood

ANDRILL Research and Publications

Exceptional exposures of a High Arctic Cretaceous sedimentary record were studied at Glacier Fiord, Axel Heiberg Island. The succession reveals a complex Aptian to Santonian paleoenvironmental history of the Sverdrup Basin that documents several global events. Foraminiferal faunas in combination with rare macrofossil occurrences permit the distinction of nine zones that facilitate biostratigraphic correlations to other High Arctic locales, the Beaufort Mackenzie Basin and the Western Interior Sea. The depositional environment as exposed in the Christopher, Hassel, Bastion Ridge and Kanguk formations changed frequently from a shelf to a shoreface setting. Most sequence boundaries appear to be conformable where shoaling …

Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function Sea-Level Reconstruction, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, M. W. Strassburg, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height with near-global coverage. These measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise and have improved understanding of how sea levels are changing regionally at decadal time scales. These relatively short records, however, provide no information about the state of the ocean prior to 1993, and with the modern altimetry record spanning only 20 years, the lower frequency signals that are known to be present in the ocean are difficult or impossible to resolve. Tide gauges, on the other hand, have measured sea level …

Sea Surface Height: A Versatile Climate Variable For Investigations Of Decadal Change, Philip Robert Thompson

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Decadal variations in climate are important, because the magnitude of sustained decadal change is often much larger than the often discussed background trends. Climate variability at interannual and longer periods is most often discussed in the context of climate modes defined by sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. However, SLP and SST are not capable descriptors of ocean dynamics. The approximately two decades of global sea surface height (SSH) measurements from satellite altimetry reveal substantial low-frequency redistributions of heat and salt in the ocean, which may or may not be related to defined climate modes. In …

Hydrodynamic Numerical Ocean Models Support Environmental Studies And Conservation Efforts: From An Arctic Estuary To A Caribbean Coral Reef, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Potential future climate changes, as highlighted recently by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, are likely to have different local impacts in different regions of the globe. Oceanic ecosystems may be especially sensitive to large environmental variation, and they are closely connected to physical changes such as temperature, salinity, currents and sea level. Two examples, from very different environments – one in a cold climate and one in a tropical climate, will be discussed here to show how hydrodynamic numerical models are helping to understand physical-biological interactions and potentially help dealing with future climate changes.

Correlating Late Pleistocene Deposits On The Coastal Plain Of Virginia With The Glacial-Eustatic Sea-Level Curve, Timothy Wullschleger Scott

OES Theses and Dissertations

Late Pleistocene sediments mapped along Virginia's southeastern coastal plain record deposition by high-frequency cycles during isotope stages 5 to 1. Correlations between several geologic units both south (S) and east (E) of the Chesapeake Bay have proven difficult due to insufficient dating methods. To improve these regional correlations, two members of the Tabb Formation on Virginia's southside and two formations on the southern Delmarva Peninsula were selected for stratigraphic analyses. Ground penetrating radar provided geologic details in areas where samples were collected for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. The stratigraphically older units, Sedgefield Member of the Tabb Formation (S) and …