Meteorology Commons^™

2019 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia

Publications

Recent research demonstrates that dynamical models sometimes fail to represent observed teleconnection patterns associated with predictable modes of climate variability. As a result, model forecast skill may be reduced. We address this gap in skill through the application of a Bayesian postprocessing technique—the calibration, bridging, and merging (CBaM) method—which previously has been shown to improve probabilistic seasonal forecast skill over Australia. Calibration models developed from dynamical model reforecasts and observations are employed to statistically correct dynamical model forecasts. Bridging models use dynamical model forecasts of relevant climate modes (e.g., ENSO) as predictors of remote temperature and precipitation. Bridging and calibration …

Applications Of Satellite Data In Analyses Of Surface Pm2.5, Minghui Diao, Frank R. Freedman, Sen Chiao, Isa Cruz, Ana Rivera, Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan, Akula Venkatram

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Fine particulate is among the most harmful air pollutants for human health. There is ongoing interest in developing reliable methods to estimate PM2.5 concentrations 1) at unmonitored locations and 2) at finer horizontal resolution for improved health risk assessment and public health tracking.We aim to develop an efficient system that can reliably estimate PM2.5 at unmonitored locations and at finer horizontal resolution at important locations.• MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) provides an input for particulate levels at unmonitored locations in methods used to construct regional PM2.5 fields.• Dispersion model fields can be fused into portions of these regional fields for …

2019 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Meteorological Comparison Of Three Cave Systems, Matthew Wine

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Cave systems are home to delicate underground ecosystems that can be affected by changes in surface atmospheric conditions which in turn affect underground meteorology. Modern human use of caves is typically for tourism, so understanding surface-underground weather-climate interactions is important when caves carry streams that are prone to flooding in response to surface precipitation. The purpose of this research is to document the effects of surface weather conditions on cave meteorology in three different cave system types located in different geographic locations including an island, the central USA, and at high elevations in British Columbia. The study caves include Kaumana …

Ua66/8/2 Ogden College Of Science & Engineering Geography & Geology Centers & Institutes, Wku Archives

WKU Archives Collection Inventories

Records created by and about Centers and Institutes administered by the Geography & Geology Department. Including:

• Center for Cave & Karst Studies
• Center for Local Government Services
• Hoffman Environmental Research Institute
• Kentucky Climate Center
• Resources Management Institute
• Small Public Water System Technology Center

Impact Of Sea Surface Temperature And Surface Air Temperature On Maximizing Typhoon Rainfall: Focusing On Typhoon Maemi In Korea, Jeonghyeon Choi, Jeonghoon Lee, Sangdan Kim

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

In this study, the effects of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST) changes on typhoon rainfall maximization are analysed. Based on the numerically reproduced Typhoon Maemi, this study tried to maximize the typhoon-induced rainfall by increasing the amount of saturated water vapour in the atmosphere and the amount of water vapour entering the typhoon. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is one of the regional climate models (RCMs), the rainfall simulated by WRF while increasing the SAT and SST to various sizes at initial conditions and boundary conditions of the model was analysed. As …

The Evolution, Propagation, And Spread Of Flash Drought In The Central United States During 2012, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jordan I. Christian, Ryann A. Wakefield, Jason A. Otkin, Eric H. Hunt, David P. Brown

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

During 2012, flash drought developed and subsequently expanded across large areas of the Central United States (US) with severe impacts to overall water resources and warm-season agricultural production. Recent efforts have yielded a methodology to detect and quantify flash drought occurrence and rate of intensification from climatological datasets via the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR). This study utilizes the North American Regional Reanalysis and applied the SESR methodology to quantify the spatial and temporal development and expansion of flash drought conditions during 2012. Critical results include the identification of the flash drought epicenter and subsequent spread of flash drought conditions …

Role Of Sea Surface Temperatures In Forcing Circulation Anomalies Driving U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Elinor R. Martin, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study usesERAtwentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. …

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic

Aviation Department Publications

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation: Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

As a result of advances in weather forecasting and technology, today’s General Aviation (GA) pilots have access to a wealth of aviation weather information. During pre-flight planning, GA pilots may access weather radar images, satellite pictures, winds, and forecast maps. During flight, pilots can access in-cockpit weather displays, as well as, handheld portable weather devices. Despite the increasing advancement and accessibility of weather displays, there is limited research addressing the interpretability of both in-cockpit and preflight weather displays. This is particularly concerning considering that preflight planning and poor product interpretability have been cited as possible contributing factors for GA weather …

Usability Analysis Of Convective Sigmets, Jackie Mcsorley, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Methods
• Results

○ Interface Analysis: System Usability Scale

○ Workload Analysis: NASA-TLX

• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Preflight Weather Worksheet, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Weather Training Modules

Preflight Weather Worksheet

• Big Picture
• Hazards
• Visibility

Influence Of Land Cover And Soil Moisture Based Brown Ocean Effect On An Extreme Rainfall Event From A Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System, Udaysankar S. Nair, Eric Rappin, Emily Foshee, Warren Smith, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rezaul Mahmood, Jonathan L. Case, Clay B. Blankenship, Marshall Shepherd, Joseph A. Santanello, Dev Niyogi

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of the ‘Brown Ocean’ effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it’s modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over …

The Total Solar Eclipse Of 2017: Meteorological Observations From A Statewide Mesonet And Atmospheric Profiling Systems, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Eric Rappin, Melissa Griffin, Patrick Collins, Kevin Knupp, Andrew Quilligan, Ryan Wade, Kevin Cary, Stuart Foster

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A total solar eclipse traversed 37 the continental United States on August 21, 2017. It 38 was the first such event in 99 years and provided a rare opportunity to observe the atmospheric response from a variety of instrumented observational platforms. This paper discusses the high quality observations collected by the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org), a research-grade meteorological and climatological observation network consisting of 72 stations and measuring air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The network samples the atmosphere, for most variables, every three seconds and then calculates and records observations every five minutes. During …

Irrigation Impacts On Minimum And Maximum Surface Moist Enthalpy In The Central Great Plains Of The Usa, Tianyi Zhang, Rezaul Mahmood, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Agricultural activities notably alter weather and climate including near-surface heat content. However, past research primarily focused on dry bulb temperature without considering the role of water vapor (dew point temperature) on surface air heat content. When using dry bulb temperature trends to assess these changes, for example, not including concurrent trends in absolute humidity can lead to errors in the actual rate of warming or cooling. Here we examined minimum and maximum surface moist enthalpy, which can be expressed as “equivalent temperature.” Using hourly climate data in the Central Great Plains (Nebraska and Kansas) from 1990 to 2014, the averages …

Enhancing Acis Maps: Increasing Usability Through A Gis Portal, Natalie Umphlett, Warren Pettee, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) is one of six NOAA Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) in the United States that aims to provide timely climate data and information to the public for cost-effective decision-making. As part of a three-tiered approach to climate services, the RCCs address needs on the national, regional, state, and local scales for a variety of sectors including agriculture, energy, natural resource management, research, transportation, and water resources. Working together, the RCCs develop and disseminate a wide range of valueadded climate products and services.

One of the HPRCC’s most popular products is the Applied Climate Information …

Conducting A Drought-Specific Thira (Threat And Hazard Identification And Risk Assessment): A Powerful Tool For Integrating All-Hazard Mitigation And Drought Planning Efforts To Increase Drought Mitigation Quality, Elliot Wickham, Deborah J. Bathke, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Tonya K. Bernadt, Denise Bulling, Lisa M. Pytlikzillig, Crystal J. Stiles, Nicole Wall

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address …

Wake Vortex Pair Formation As An Analog For Dust Devil And Tornado Genesis, Robert L. Ash

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

In 1966, meteorologist R.S. Scorer attempted to explain how large-scale oceanic tropical depressions become hurricanes or typhoons. His model was based on the idea that when these large-scale tropical depression structures begin to rotate, mostly due to Coriolis effects, an annular outer portion of that structure changes suddenly to a potential vortex segment, with the same outer radial limit as the low-pressure structure, but with an inner radius that conserves the overall system angular momentum and kinetic energy. By analogy with the "jump" instability describing sudden buckling of a vertical column, this paper shows that his conjecture merits additional consideration. …

“It’S Hard To Get Your Head Around Something Like This”: Figurative And Intense Language For Sensegiving During Severe Weather Coverage, Robert W. Prestley

Theses and Dissertations--Communication

During high-impact weather events like Hurricane Harvey, broadcast meteorologists take on the role of sensegiver, as they develop frameworks to help their viewers make sense of the storm. These frameworks are communicated through rhetorical choices evident in the language the meteorologists use to describe the storm’s threat and impact. This study investigates the rhetorical choices of KHOU broadcast meteorologists during Hurricane Harvey in order to make sense of the disaster, using an inductive thematic analysis. The results indicate that the KHOU broadcasters framed Harvey figuratively as an all-encompassing monster and a heat-seeking machine. The meteorologists used emotionally intense language to …

An Observation And Modeling Analysis Of The April 16, 2011 North Carolina Tornado Outbreak, Caitlin Kelly

Summer Community of Scholars Posters (RCEU and HCR Combined Programs)

No abstract provided.

Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord

CCPO Publications

The hurricane project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) was established in 1970. By the mid-1970s pioneering research had led to the development of a new hurricane model. As the reputation of the model grew, GFDL was approached in 1986 by the director of the National Meteorological Center about establishing a collaboration between the two federal organizations to transition the model into an operational modeling system. After a multiyear effort by GFDL scientists to develop a system that could support rigorous requirements of operations, and multiyear testing had demonstrated its superior performance compared …

Potential Effects Of Regional Soil Moisture Anomalies On The Great Plains Low-Level Jet, Matthew Arturo Campbell

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) contributes to Great Plains (GP) warm season water resources (precipitation), wind resources, and severe weather outbreaks. Past research has shown that synoptic and local mesoscale physical mechanisms (Holton and Blackadar mechanisms) are jointly required to explain GPLLJ variability. Although local mechanistic theories hinge upon soil moisture-planetary boundary layer (PBL) interactions, the effect of regional soil moisture anomalies on GPLLJ speed, northward penetration, and propensity for severe weather is not well known.

A New York State Mesonet Based Analysis Of Squall Line Cold Pool Strength And Uses For Short Term Forecasting, Daniel William Reese

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The recently finished New York State Mesonet (NYSM) has a network of 126 standard surface sites and 17 vertical profiler sites across the state. This high density network allows for a wide range of potential uses in research and operational forecasting. One such use is in the area of severe thunderstorm forecasting, where mesoscale and storm scale features can become highly important. This thesis examines three case studies, events from 2017-2018 that produced long-lived, high impact squall lines which moved across the state. As the squall line’s cold pool has long been recognized to play a critical role in squall …

A Revised Technique For Measuring Vertical Velocity Using Dropsondes, Timothy Connor Nelson

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The earliest iterations of dropsondes in the 1960's obtained vertical velocity by measuring the geometric fall speed of the dropsonde and the true airspeed (TAS) of the dropsonde from a pitot-static. The vertical velocity errors from this methodology were claimed to be ±1 m s-1. Subsequent dropsonde iterations used various forms of the drag force equation to obtain vertical velocity. The accuracy of these drag force-based measurements, however, are also quite large at ±1–2 m s-1. In this dissertation, an attempt is made to improve vertical velocity errors by revisiting and revising the pitot-static-derived TAS methodology on the eXpendable Digital …

Influence Of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs On Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change And Structure : Observational, Reanalysis, And Idealized Numerical Modeling Perspectives, Casey Peirano

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and upper-tropospheric troughs is a

Droughtscape, Winter 2019, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Drought intensified in California and Nevada, eased elsewhere

Year in Review: Drought spread and intensified in the West; record precipitation in the East

Drought impact summary for 4th quarter 2018

Drought impact summary 2018

Five states began drought plan updates in 2018

New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier

FEMA risk assessment process tailored for drought

Upcoming events

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic Ph.D., Sc.D.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

An Overview And Evaluation Of Synthetc: A Statistical Model For Extra-Tropical Cyclones, Rafael Uryayev

Dissertations and Theses

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the most common weather phenomena affecting the United States, Canada, and Europe. They can pose serious hazards over large swaths of area. In this thesis, a statistical model of ETCs, called SynthETC, is discussed. The model accounts for the for genesis, track path, termination, and intensity of statistically generated ETCs. Genesis is modeled as a Poisson process, whose mean is determined by climate and historical information. Tracks are modeled as a regression-mean determined by climate and historical information plus a stochastic component. Lysis is modeled using logistic regression, with climate states as covariates. Intensity is modeled …

Hydroclimate Drivers And Atmospheric Dynamics Of Floods, Nasser Najibi

Dissertations and Theses

Our preliminary survey showed that most of the recent flood-related studies did not formally explain the physical mechanisms of long-duration and large-peak flood events that can evoke substantial damages to properties and infrastructure systems. These studies also fell short of fully assessing the interactions of coupled ocean-atmosphere and land dynamics which are capable of forcing substantial changes to the flood attributes by governing the exceeding surface flow regimes and moisture source-sink relationships at the spatiotemporal scales important for risk management. This dissertation advances the understanding of the variability in flood duration, peak, volume, and timing at the regional to the …