Meteorology Commons^™

Climate Change Impacts On Winter Wheat Yield In Northern China, Xiu Geng, Fang Wang, Wei Ren, Zhixin Hao

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016. A …

Comparison Of Simulations Of Updraft Mass Fluxes And Their Response To Increasing Aerosol Concentration Between A Bin Scheme And A Bulk Scheme In A Deep-Convective Cloud System, Seoung Soo Lee, Chang-Hoon Jung, Sen Chiao, Junshik Um, Yong-Sang Choi, Won Jun Choi

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Key microphysical processes whose parameterizations have substantial impacts on the simulation of updraft mass fluxes and their response to aerosol are investigated in this study. For this investigation, comparisons of these parameterizations are made between a bin scheme and a bulk scheme. These comparisons show that the differences in the prediction of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) between the two schemes determine whether aerosol-induced invigoration of updrafts or convection occurs. While the CDNC prediction leads to aerosol-induced invigoration of updrafts and an associated 20% increase in the peak value of the updraft-mass-flux vertical profile in the bin scheme, it leads …

Umphlett Qci June 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Delayed/Prevented Planting

Impacts to Cattle

Damage to Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

2019 June - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Climatology And Change Of Extreme Precipitation Events In Taiwan Based On Weather Types, Yi-Chao Wu, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Yi-Chiang Yu, Chu-Ying Kung, An-Hsiang Wang, Sebastian A. Los, Wan-Ru Huang

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

Taiwan's most significant natural hazards are caused by hydrological extremes resulting from excessive precipitation. The threat of extreme precipitation is posed by several different types of weather patterns that affect Taiwan. This study examined the bi‐decadal changes in rainfall by defining an extreme precipitation occurrence (EPO) for a range of event durations from 1 to 24 hr. Three major weather types affecting EPO in Taiwan were identified from 1993 to 2015: the front type consisting of either a frontal zone or convective systems developing with an apparent Meiyu cloudband, diurnal rainfall events when no apparent synoptic features are present, and …

Intercomparison Of Small Unmanned Aircraft System (Suas) Measurements For Atmospheric Science During The Lapse-Rate Campaign, Lindsay Barbieri, Stephan T. Kral, Sean C. C. Bailey, Amy E. Frazier, Jamey D. Jacob, Joachim Reuder, David Brus, Phillip B. Chilson, Christopher Crick, Carrick Detweiler, Abhiram Doddi, Jack Elston, Hosein Foroutan, Javier González-Rocha, Brian R. Greene, Marcelo I. Guzman, Adam L. Houston, Ashraful Islam, Osku Kemppinen, Dale Lawrence, Elizabeth A. Pillar-Little, Shane D. Ross, Michael P. Sama, David G. Schmale Iii, Travis J. Schuyler, Ajay Shankar, Suzanne W. Smith, Sean Waugh, Cory Dixon, Steve Borenstein, Gijs De Boer

Chemistry Faculty Publications

Small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) are rapidly transforming atmospheric research. With the advancement of the development and application of these systems, improving knowledge of best practices for accurate measurement is critical for achieving scientific goals. We present results from an intercomparison of atmospheric measurement data from the Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign. We evaluate a total of 38 individual sUAS with 23 unique sensor and platform configurations using a meteorological tower for reference measurements. We assess precision, bias, and time response of sUAS measurements of temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, and …

2019 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Exploring Perceived Usability And Interpretability Of Aviation Weather Products Among Ga Pilots, Jackie Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Results
• Discussion
• Current Investigations

The Dionysus Project: Classifying & Monitoring Vineyards With Satellite Remote Sensing & Image Analysis, Evelin Perez-Flores, Nicole Flores, Rachel Zinberg, Dionne Huston, Aaron Davitt, Kyle Mcdonald

Publications and Research

Climate change is expected to impact the wine industry by shifting suitable growing regions away from established regions and increasing the demand for freshwater supplies to maintain vineyard health. This creates challenges for maintaining vineyards since the grapevines need to be appropriately stressed to produce quality grapes for quality wine. This requires precision management of freshwater application and canopy management to produce a grape that has the appropriate concentration of flavors and sugars. Vineyards in the U.S. are typically monitored by vineyard managers at the large scale, lacking the resolution needed to identify grapevine growth at the subfield level. Vineyard …

A Probabilistic Approach To Generating Representative Wind Forcing And Wave Heights Within An Estuarine Environment, Vanessa Maria Haley

Theses and Dissertations

While wind driven waves affect erosion, sediment resuspension, and flow in shallow estuaries like the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), neither winds nor waves are well observed in this environment. In order to calculate accurate significant wave heights, the winds used for the calculation must be consistent with the observed winds over the lagoon. Given the complex land/water geometry and subsequent limited fetch, a probabilistic approach is used to produce a representative wind field over the IRL. Observed winds, near the IRL, are used to sample wind distributions obtained from 180 high resolution atmospheric model simulations in order to generate a …

Using A Balloon-Launched Unmanned Glider To Validate Real-Time Wrf Modeling, Travis J. Schuyler, S. M. Iman Gohari, Gary Pundsack, Donald Berchoff, Marcelo I. Guzman

Chemistry Faculty Publications

The use of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for meteorological measurements has expanded significantly in recent years. SUAS are efficient platforms for collecting data with high resolution in both space and time, providing opportunities for enhanced atmospheric sampling. Furthermore, advances in mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) modeling and graphical processing unit (GPU) computing have enabled high resolution weather modeling. In this manuscript, a balloon-launched unmanned glider, complete with a suite of sensors to measure atmospheric temperature, pressure, and relative humidity, is deployed for validation of real-time weather models. This work demonstrates the usefulness of sUAS for validating and improving …

Comparison Of Terrain Effects In Divergent Versus Non-Divergent Barotropic Models, Tyler E. Green, Thomas A. Guinn

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

The effects of including terrain in divergent and non-divergent, single-level barotropic models are examined in detail using a global spectral model. The non-divergent model solves the barotropic vorticity equation, while the divergent model solves the shallow water equations. In both models, the impact of terrain is evaluated by examining the evolution of the predicted heights of a pressure surface. Four simulations with initially zonal flow were run for each model using a two-dimensional Gaussian mountain shape for terrain, with two different mean fluid depths of 5,000 m and 7,500 m, and two different peak mountain heights of 2,000 m and …

Taking Action: A Case Study Analyzing The Deficiencies And Potential Opportunities For Improvement In The Severe Weather Warning System, Carson Meredith

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The United States is one of the most prone areas in the world to experience severe weather. A warning system operated by the National Weather Service alerts the public of the dangers of severe weather. The purpose of this project is to analyze the effectiveness of the National Weather Service warning system across Kentucky and Tennessee. A case study is presented analyzing six severe weather events in areas warned by the National Weather Service offices in Louisville, Kentucky and Nashville, Tennessee in 2018. Factors reviewed include effectiveness in issuing timely warnings, verification (i.e., whether or not severe weather actually occurred), …

2019 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Kanjirowa Blues: An Exploration Of Environmental And Climate Consciousness In Lower Dolpa, Nepal, Casey Greenleaf

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

It has been scientifically demonstrated that high altitude, mountainous regions such as the Himalayas are extremely susceptible to and at accelerated risk of the effects of climate change. The regions of Lower Dolpa discussed in this work, Juphal, Dunai, Chun, and Dapu, lie in a glacial watershed, and are at present risk of landslides, floods, wildfires, and rely on agricultural and transhumant livelihoods that are uniquely susceptible to the impacts of changing temperature and weather patterns. People in this region are being forced to incrementally adapt and reframe their understanding of their surroundings due to both aforementioned severe events as …

Droughtscape, Spring 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Wet and cool conditions bring drought relief to the West

Notable numbers from Q1

Drought impact summary, 1st quarter 2019

New research examines drought effects on state recreation areas

At Ethiopian space science workshop, NDMC climatologist sees promise in preparing for drought

U.S.- affiliated Pacific Islands now part of U.S. Drought Monitor

Water conservation tips for drought, flood and other disasters

Upcoming events

Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning poses a significant hazard to space launch operations to include ground processing, launch window forecasts, and rocket-triggered lightning events. Two lightning initiation forecast methods using weather radar developed in Gremillion and Orville (1999) and Travis (2015) for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida are tested in a new geographical region. This is accomplished by applying the highest-performing radar parameters from Gremillion and Orville (1999): reectivity (Z) ≥ 40 dBZ for two consecutive volume scans at the -10°C thermal height and Travis (2015): Z ≥ 36.5 dBZ with differential reflectivity (ZDR) ≥ 0.31 dB …

Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the radiative transfer code, Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR), developed by the Center for Directed Energy at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Many multi- and hyperspectral applications are limited to the nighttime due in large part to daytime solar background noise and it is advantageous to be able to quantify this background noise using LEEDR. Real-time meteorological surface observations, numerical weather prediction, and aerosol particle concentrations were used to investigate the accuracy of LEEDR radiances simulations. Comparisons between simulations and measured values show that aerosol concentrations, weather predictions, and meteorological observations provide enough information …

Effect Of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables To Modify Forecast Predictions, Sarah A. Gold

Theses and Dissertations

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) records daily rain and lightning probabilistic forecasts and the associated binary event outcomes. Subsequently, they evaluate forecast performance and determine necessary adjustments with an implemented verification process. For deterministic outcomes, weather forecast analysis typically utilizes a Tradition Contingency Table (TCT) for verification, however the 45 WS uses an alternative tool, the Probabilistic Contingency Table (PCT). Using the TCT for verification requires a threshold, typically at 50%, to dichotomize probabilistic forecasts. The PCT maintains the valuable information in probabilities and verifies the true forecasts being reported. Simulated forecasts and outcomes as well as 2015-2018 45 …

Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Dominick V. Speranza

Theses and Dissertations

Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) all reside in the thunderstorm capital of the United States. According to the Florida Climate Center, these installations experience more thunderstorms per year than any other place in the United States. It is the mission of the 45th Weather Squadron to provide timely and accurate warnings of weather conditions such as lightning that pose a risk to assets and personnel CCAFS, KSC and PAFB. To aid 45th Weather Squadron forecasters, a network of 30 Electric Field Mills (EFM) was installed in the area in …

Climatology, Variability, And Return Periods Of Tropical Cyclone Strikes In The Northeastern And Central Pacific Basins, Nicholas S. Grondin

LSU Master's Theses

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive meteorological phenomena and impact the lives of people who reside along the coast. The American Pacific Coastline borders the second most active TC development region in the world, the northeastern Pacific (NE Pac) basin. This region, along with the Central Pacific (C Pac)-bordering Hawaii is home to a growing population and cities engaged in a variety of economic activities, most prominently agriculture, fishing, and tourism. This study analyzes fifty-two (1966-2017) years of NE Pac and C Pac TCs through applying track data from the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 and a TC size …

Vulnerability Of Industrial Facilities In The Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor To Relative Sea Level Rise And Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, Joseph Blake Harris

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) and tropical cyclone-induced storm surge are major threats to the Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor (LMRIC) which has approximately 120 industrial complexes located within the corridor. Spatial interpolation methods were applied to the 2004 National Oceanic and Atmospheric published Technical Report #50 subsidence dataset and cross-validation techniques were used to determine the accuracy of each method. Digital elevation models (DEMs) were created for the years 2025, 2050, and 2075, based on these predictive surface of subsidence rates. Future DEMs were utilized to model RSLR and determine the extent of storm surge on the LMRIC by …

Efficacy Of The Localized Aviation Mos Program In Ceiling Flight Category Forecasts, Douglas D. Boyd, Thomas A. Guinn

Publications

(1) Background: Flying in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) carries an elevated risk of fatal outcome for general aviation (GA) pilots. For the typical GA flight, aerodrome-specific forecasts (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF), Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP)) assist the airman in pre-determining whether a flight can be safely undertaken. While LAMP forecasts are more prevalent at GA-frequented aerodromes, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recommends that this tool be used as supplementary to the TAF only. Herein, the predictive accuracy of LAMP for ceiling flight categories of visual flight rules (VFR) and instrument flight rules (IFR) was determined. (2) Methods: …

Numerical Investigations Of Atmospheric Rivers And The Rain Shadow Over The Santa Clara Valley, Dalton Behringer, Sen Chiao

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

This study investigated precipitation distribution patterns in association with atmospheric rivers (ARs). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to simulate two strong atmospheric river events. The precipitation forecasts were highly sensitive to cloud microphysics parameterization schemes. Thus, radar observed and simulated ZH and ZDR were evaluated to provide information about the drop-size distribution (DSD). Four microphysics schemes (WSM-5, WSM-6, Thompson, and WDM-6) with nested simulations (3 km, 1 km, and 1/3 km) were conducted. One of the events mostly contained bright-band (BB) rainfall and lasted less than 24 h, while the other contained both BB and non-bright-band …

Umphlett Qci March 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Plains Snowpack

Agriculture

Energy

Transportation

Temperature

Precipitation

Seasonal Origins Of Soil Water Used By Trees, Scott T. Allen, James W. Kirchner, Sabine Braun, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Rain recharges soil water storages and either percolates downward into aquifers and streams or is returned to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. Although it is commonly assumed that summer rainfall recharges plant-available water during the growing season, the seasonal origins of water used by plants have not been systematically explored. We characterize the seasonal origins of waters in soils and trees by comparing their midsummer isotopic signatures (δ2H) to seasonal isotopic cycles in precipitation, using a new seasonal origin index. Across 182 Swiss forest sites, xylem water isotopic signatures show that summer rain was not the predominant water source …

2019 March - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Combined Report: Aviation Weather Knowledge Assessment & General Aviation (Ga) Pilots’ Interpretation Of Weather Products, Beth Blickensderfer, John Lanicci, Thomas A. Guinn, Robert Thomas, Jennifer E. Thropp, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Jessica Cruit, Nicholas Defilippis, Krijn Berendschot, Jacqueline Mcsorley, John Kleber

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Prior research has indicated that general aviation (GA) pilots may lack adequate knowledge of aviation weather concepts and skill at interpreting aviation weather displays. Therefore, the purpose of the current project was to develop and validate a comprehensive set of aviation weather knowledge and interpretation multiple-choice questions, and in turn, to use the questions to assess pilot understanding of aviation weather concepts and displays. An interdisciplinary research team that included two meteorologists, one Gold Seal Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI), a human factors psychologist, and several human factors graduate students performed this research.

The Fire And Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment—A Plan For Integrated, Large Fire–Atmosphere Field Campaigns, Susan Prichard, N. Sim Larkin, Roger Ottmar, Nancy H.F. French, Kirk Baker, Tim Brown, Craig B. Clements, Matt Dickinson, Andrew Hudak, Adam Kochanski, Rod Linn, Yongqiang Liu, Brian Potter, William Mell, Danielle Tanzer, Shawn Urbanski, Adam Watts

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is designed to collect integrated observations from large wildland fires and provide evaluation datasets for new models and operational systems. Wildland fire, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry models have become more sophisticated, and next-generation operational models will require evaluation datasets that are coordinated and comprehensive for their evaluation and advancement. Integrated measurements are required, including ground-based observations of fuels and fire behavior, estimates of fire-emitted heat and emissions fluxes, and observations of near-source micrometeorology, plume properties, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry. To address these requirements the FASMEE campaign design includes a study …

Incorporating Uh Occurrence Time To Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities, Burkely T. Gallo, Adam J. Clark, Bryan T. Smith, Richard L. Thompson, Israel Jirak, Scott R. Dembek

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving (RM) supercells. However, when UH occurrence is a condition for tornado probability generation, false alarm areas can occur from UH swaths associated with nocturnal mesoscale convective systems, which climatologically produce fewer tornadoes than RM supercells. This study incorporates UH timing information with the forecast near-storm significant tornado parameter (STP) to calibrate the forecast tornado probability. To generate the probabilistic forecasts, three sets of observed climatological tornado frequencies given an RM supercell and STP …