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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology

Comparison Of A Conceptual Model And Objective Indicators Of Extratropical Transition In The Western North Pacific, Gregory D. Fox Mar 2004

Comparison Of A Conceptual Model And Objective Indicators Of Extratropical Transition In The Western North Pacific, Gregory D. Fox

Theses and Dissertations

The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the …


Forecasting Advective Sea Fog With The Use Of Classification And Regression Tree Analyses For Kunsan Air Base, Danielle M. Lewis Mar 2004

Forecasting Advective Sea Fog With The Use Of Classification And Regression Tree Analyses For Kunsan Air Base, Danielle M. Lewis

Theses and Dissertations

Advective sea fog frequently plagues Kunsan Air Base (AB), Republic of Korea, in the spring and summer seasons. It is responsible for a variety of impacts on military operations, the greatest being to aviation. To date, there are no suitable methods developed for forecasting advective sea fog at Kunsan, primarily due to a lack of understanding of sea fog formation under various synoptic situations over the Yellow Sea. This work explored the feasibility of predicting sea fog development with a 24-hour forecast lead time. Before exploratory data analysis was performed, a geographical introduction to the region was provided along with …


Verification Of Meteorological Data Reports From The Rq-4a Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Steven M. Callis Mar 2004

Verification Of Meteorological Data Reports From The Rq-4a Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Steven M. Callis

Theses and Dissertations

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have onboard sensors that continuously record weather data during their missions. This information is extremely valuable to both the meteorological and UAV communities with numerous potential benefits, which include improved weather forecast products and additional weather intelligence for military planners. The value of any dataset is directly related to its accuracy and this research determined the accuracy of weather data obtained from a particular UAV, the RQ-4A Global Hawk. This was accomplished through statistical analysis and comparisons with upper-air data and Atmospheric Slant Path Analysis Model (ASPAM) profiles of the atmosphere. Recommendations are provided for the …


Dust Storm Forecasting For Al Udeid Ab, Qatar: An Empirical Analysis, Kevin S. Bartlett Mar 2004

Dust Storm Forecasting For Al Udeid Ab, Qatar: An Empirical Analysis, Kevin S. Bartlett

Theses and Dissertations

Dust storms are extreme weather events that have strong winds laden with visibility reducing and operations limiting dust, The Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) 28th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) is ultimately responsible for forecasting weather in the vast, data denied region of Southwest Asia in support of daily military and humanitarian operations. As a result, the 28th OWS requests a simplified forecasting tool to help predict mesoscale dust events that affect coalition operations at Al Udeid AB, Qatar. This research satisfies the 28th OWS request through an extensive statistical analysis of observational data depicting seasonal dust events over the past …


Feasibility Of Using Classification Analyses To Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification, Jonathan W. Leffler Mar 2004

Feasibility Of Using Classification Analyses To Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification, Jonathan W. Leffler

Theses and Dissertations

Tropical cyclone intensity techniques developed by Dvorak have thus far been regarded by tropical meteorologists as the best identification and forecast schemes available using satellite imagery. However, in recent years, several ideologies have arisen which discuss alternative means of determining typhoon rapid intensification or weakening in the Pacific. These theories include examining channel outflow patterns, potential vorticity superposition and anomalies, tropical upper tropospheric trough interactions, environmental influences, and upper tropospheric flow transitions. It is now possible to data mine these atmospheric parameters thought partly responsible for typhoon rapid intensification and weakening to validate their usefulness in the forecast process. Using …


A Statistically-Based Method For Predicting Fog And Stratus Dissipation, Louis L. Lussier Iii Mar 2004

A Statistically-Based Method For Predicting Fog And Stratus Dissipation, Louis L. Lussier Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine. Ceiling forecasts at Dover AFB and McGuire AFB show improvements over conditional climatology ranging from 1-51% with an average improvement of 19.2% when verified against an independent data set. McGuire AFB visibility forecasts show an average improvement over conditional climatology of 3%. These findings are of particular importance to the Air Force in general and specifically to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron (15 OWS) who produces …