Meteorology Commons^™

Evaluation Of Barnes' Method And Kriging For Estimating The Low Level Wind Field, Michael W. Engel

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis evaluates two different methods of estimating a three dimensional wind field based upon a limited number of irregularly-spaced observations. This work was performed for the 45th Weather Squadron to determine how well the two methods worked and their potential for use in a visualization program. The two methods evaluated were Barnes' method and a method called Kriging, which is commonly used in geostatistics. Both of these estimation techniques were implemented and then evaluated to determine how accurate the estimates were that they created. The methods' accuracies were determined by withholding an observation from the observed wind field data …

An Improved Thunderstorm Forecast Index For Cape Canaveral, Florida, James A. Everitt

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis creates a new algorithm to replace the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick AFB, Florida, uses the NPTI as an objective means of determining the probability of thunderstorm occurrence at Cape Canaveral. The probability is used for mission planning and resource protection, and increasing the accuracy of NPTI can potentially save billions of dollars for the United States space program. Stratified logistical regressions are performed and probability equations are derived for May through September using upper air data and surface observations for Cape Canaveral. A logistical regression of NPTI was also performed. Variables include …

Forecasting Downdraft Wind Speeds Associated With Airmass Thunderstorms For Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado, Using The Wsr-88d, Travis A. Steen

Theses and Dissertations

During the period Jun-Aug 96, four Air Force installations suffered over $4.8 million in damage from convective winds. During the same summer, Air Force Space Command units issued nearly 65% of their weather warnings for convective winds, making the forecasting of convective winds the most frequent challenge to forecasters. This thesis seeks to assist Air Force forecasters at Peterson Air Force Base (PAFB), Colorado, in forecasting airmass thunderstorm downdraft wind speeds using the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). To accomplish this purpose, several existing potential downdraft wind speed prediction techniques were evaluated against the observed wind speeds of nineteen airmass …

Survey Of Military Applications For Fourier Transform Infrared (Ftir) Spectroscopy, Robert G. Hauser

Theses and Dissertations

This paper surveyed four potential military uses for a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectrometer. A physical method to retrieve vertical atmospheric temperature profiles using a least-squares solution on atmospheric radiance observed at the surface in the 4.3-micrometer carbon dioxide absorption band was analyzed. The method was not successful. Weighting functions, calculated from the surface looking up, were a maximum at the surface, so no unique solution for temperature retrieval by height was determined. Observed atmospheric radiance measurements were compared with radiance calculated using the Moderate Resolution Transmittance Code (MODTRAN). Qualitative comparison showed spectral features of observed and calculated radiance plots …

Studies Of Warm-Core Rings Using A Particle-In-Cell Method, John James Holdzkom Ii

OES Theses and Dissertations

A particle-in-cell (PIC) model is developed and applied to problems involving the evolution of warm-core rings. Such models are a hybrid of conventional Eulerian and Lagrangian models. They are ideally suited for problems in which a lower layer outcrops to the surface, such as at the boundary of a ring.

The model is developed in three implementations. First, for purposes of model validation, a reduced gravity model is described. The PIC model reproduces the essential characteristics of analytical solutions to the reduced gravity equations and integral invariants are conserved to a high degree. Next, a 1.5-layer model is developed and …

Forecasting Wet Microbursts Associated With Summertime Airmass Thunderstorms Over The Southeastern United States, James B. Mackey

Theses and Dissertations

Microbursts are intense downbursts from thunderstorms that affect an area less than 4 km and have a lifespan less than 10 minutes. Wet microbursts are associated with heavy precipitation and are common in the eastern and southeastern part of the country. The greatest threat from microbursts is to low flying aircraft, where the rapid fluctuations in horizontal and vertical airflow create tremendous shear zones. Microbursts have been determined to be the causal factor behind at least three major aircraft accidents resulting in numerous fatalities. Due to the short lifespan of microbursts, they often strike without warning and pose a serious …

A Validation Study Of The Air Force Weather Agency (Afwa) Jetrax Contrail Forecast Algorithm, Jeffrey D. Shull

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate contrail forecasts allow pilots to avoid levels of the atmosphere which are conducive to contrail formation, reducing their likelihood of being visually detected by enemy forces. The primary objective of this thesis is to evaluate the performance of the JETRAX contrail forecast algorithm currently used by the Air Force Weather Agency to support military air operations. A total of 397 ground-based contrail observations were collected at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base on 27 different days. Observations were collected with the aid of air traffic control radar, which greatly facilitated the positive identification of overflying aircraft and provided necessary information such …

A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall

Theses and Dissertations

Total fractional cloudiness (FC) forecasts from the advect cloud (ADVCLD) model and total FC forecasts diagnosed from the relative humidity and total cloud condensate (snow, ice, rain water, and cloud water) fields from the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) were statistically and subjectively compared to determine which model produced the better total FC forecasts from August through November 1997 for a forecast window centered on Bosnia. The real time nephanalysis (RTNFPH) model was used to represent the true state of the atmosphere. ADVCLD and MM5 forecasts were also compared against a persistence forecast to provide a minimal skill baseline. The …

Analyzing Horizontal Distances Between Wsr-88d Thunderstorm Centroids And Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Strikes, Steve L. Renner

Theses and Dissertations

On April 29, 1996, lightning struck the airfield at Hurlburt Field, FL, killing one Airmen and injuring ten others. This cloud to ground lightning strike hit eight minutes after a lightning advisory was canceled. At the time of the strike, thunderstorms were observed 7 to 10 miles north and south of the airfield. The incident raised questions about Air Force Weather Agency's lightning criteria. Soon after the incident, a Lightning Safety Review Panel was assembled to determine the adequacy of lightning advisories. One of the questions posed to the panel was could an incident like Hurlburt happen again? The review …

Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-Eta Numerical Model Output, Christian S. Wohlwend

Theses and Dissertations

The 45th Weather Squadron (WS) is responsible for the protection of billions of dollars worth of Air Force and NASA equipment from weather hazards. They produce a seven day planning forecast as one tool to support the space launch community. Improving this forecast can potentially save millions of dollars of government funds. This research focuses on the feasibility of improving the day two thunderstorm forecast by applying Meso Eta numerical forecasts to the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The NPTI is currently used by the 45th WS for same day thunderstorm probability forecasting utilizing the morning radiosonde as input. The perfect …

Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel

Theses and Dissertations

Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) based on the medium range forecast (MRF) ensemble are currently in operational use below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy and reliability). This unfulfilled potential is due to the MRF ensemble being adversely affected by systematic errors which arise from an imperfect model and less than ideal ensemble initial perturbations. This thesis sought to construct a calibration to account for these systematic errors and thus produce higher quality PQPF. Systematic errors were explored with the use of the verification rank histogram, which tracks the performance of the ensemble. The information in these histograms was then …

Evaluation Of Satellite Microwave Derived Surface Temperature Algorithms For The Period August 1996 To February 1997, Charles H. Harris

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has two operational algorithms that derive surface temperatures from microwave observations taken by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) which rides aboard space platforms of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). The algorithm called Temperature from Satellite Microwave Imager (TS) is used to analyze global cloud coverage. The second algorithm is fittingly called Calibration and Validation (CV), as it was the algorithm used to calibrate and validate the first SSM/I in 1987. Multiple linear regression defined the algorithms from empirically gathered brightness temperatures and simultaneous surface temperatures. The key questions were how much data …

Nowcasting Thunderstorms At Cape Canaveral, Florida, Using An Improved Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index, Cindy L. Howell

Theses and Dissertations

The Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI) is used daily by the 45th Weather Squadron during the convective season to estimate the probability of afternoon thunderstorms. The current I , developed by Charles J. Neumann in the 1960s, i based on only 13 years of data taken over 30 years ago. The index was in desperate need of an upgrade. Following the multiple regression techniques outlined by Neumann, this thesis examines whether or not including additional data would improve the performance of the NPTI. After performing the multiple regressions and retuning the regression coefficients, both NPTs were validated using a 2-year independent …

Azimuth And Range Optimization Of The Velocity Azimuth Display (Vad) Algorithm In The Wsr-88d, David L. Craft

Theses and Dissertations

The Velocity Azimuth Display (VAD) algorithm occasionally produces inaccurate wind estimates for the VAD Wind Profile (VWP) product of the Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) System. Weather forecasters have observed differences between the radar's wind profiles and wind profiles produced by rawinsondes and vertical wind profilers, when radiation and subsidence inversions in the atmosphere caused the radar beam to super refract. This thesis sought to improve the operational use of the VWP product for the WSR-88D near Denver, CO, by finding the optimal VAD algorithm Azimuth and Range parameter settings to overcome data contamination by hills located at the …

A Validation Study Of The Ssm/I Temperature Algorithm And Comparison With The Cal/Val Land Surface Temperatures, Ronald L. Comoglio

Theses and Dissertations

The USAF operational cloud model, the Real-Time Nephanalysis (RTNEPH), requires infrared and visual scene scans as well as input from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), featured on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) polar orbiters. Additionally, SSM/I provides input to the Air Force Global Weather Center (AFGWC) surface temperature model (SFCTMP). The global surface temperatures are required for identifying which pixel of a scene is cloud and which is ground and as a first guess input to initialize NWP models. The SSM/I provides brightness temperatures sampled at four discrete: frequencies and dual polarizations to produce surface temperatures. Two algorithms …

Adaption Of The Air Weather Service Fog Model To Forecast Radiation Fog Events In The Southeast United States, Andrew C. Goodnite

Theses and Dissertations

This research examined the performance of the Air Weather Service (AWS) Fog Model and the potential for using it in the Southeast United States for predicting fog. This task was accomplished in four separate steps. First, a correlation study was performed by comparing different weather elements in observations that met radiational cooling conditions to the observed visibility. This correlation study showed that the 22 UTC dewpoint depression was correlated (0.60) with early morning fog and no other weather elements that are commonly observed had significant correlation with early morning fog. Second, a verification study was conducted on the Saint Louis …

An Examination Of The Hanson Contrail Forecast Algorithm Under Low Relative Humidity Conditions, Robert P. Asbury Iii

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasts of contrail occurrence are essential to military aircrews. Although classical forecast methods have been reasonably successful predicting contrails, there is need for improvement at low ambient relative humidity. This thesis examines the performance of the Hanson method, which was developed to provide better contrail forecasts under drier atmospheric conditions. As a secondary objective, the forecast methods of Schumann and Hanson are compared to the algorithm currently in use by the Air Force Global Weather Central. Data used to validate the algorithms were collected at Wright-Patterson AFB, OH and Edwards AFB, CA. Theoretical contrail forecasts were made for each …

Development And Implementation Of An Isentropic Potential Vorticity Algorithm For Use At Air Force Global Weather Center, Jay B. Desjardins Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents and validates methods for calculating isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and applies these methods in software programs planned for implementation at the Air Force Global Weather Center (AFGWC). The IPV programs will provide Air Force Weather forecasters additional tools to diagnose atmospheric kinematics and understand atmospheric dynamics. A FORTRAN program is recommended using mandatory-level isobaric data projected to be available on AFGWC computer systems, specifically, from the Navy Operational Global Atmosphere Prediction System and Medium Range Forecast models. Program development and analysis consists of three main steps: (1) data retrieval; (2) IPV calculations; and, (3) interpolation to an …

Optimization Of The Velocity Azimuth Display (Vad) Algorithm's Adaptable Parameters In The Wsr-88d System, Donald R. Farris

Theses and Dissertations

Meteorologists have encountered problems with the Velocity Azimuth Display (VAD) algorithm in the Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) System. Under certain meteorological conditions, forecasters have observed differences between the radar's wind profiles and wind profiles from rawinsonde upper-air soundings, or wind profilers. One of the main causes of this problem is inversions in the atmosphere which cause the radar beam to subrefract or superefract, causing the VAD winds to be inaccurately reported at a particular height. This thesis used the WSR-88D Algorithm Testing and Display System (WATADS) to compare VAD winds from recorded Level 2 NEXRAD data at …

Validation Of The Air Force Global Weather Center Relocatable Window Model Total Cloud Forecast, Edward C. Harris

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force Global Weather Center's (AFGWC) Relocatable Window Model (RWM) total cloud forecasts were validated using data for selected days in May, June, and July, 1996. Forecasts were generated twice daily (00 UTC and 12 UTC) to determine the RWM's ability to accurately forecast total cloud cover during the late spring and early summer. The RWM forecasts were post-processed using the Slingo cloud forecast algorithm and compared against AFGWC's operational real time nephanalysis (RTNEPH) cloud analysis model. As a minimal-skill baseline comparison to the RWM's total cloud forecast, the RTNEPH initial analysis hour was persisted and evaluated against the same …

Moisture Sensitivity Of Contrail Forecast Algorithms, Allen C. Rabayda

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis looked at using new relative humidity (RH) climatologies to improve the Air Force Global Weather Center's (AFGWC) contrail forecasts. To study the effect of the new RH climatolgies, the currently used empirical relative humidity (RH) profile is replaced with a more accurate climatological one, the Stratospheric And Gaseous Experiment II (SAGE II). The study begins by examining accuracy and bias of forecast contrail bases generated by the empirical and SAGE II RH profiles on 42 days. Both sets of forecast bases are shown to be statistically similar with a series of hypothesis tests. Additional RH profiles, from 0% …

Quantification Of Weather Effects On Imaging Laser Radar, Clifton D. Stargardt

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force is investigating the use of imaging laser radar systems as autonomous guidance systems on future precision guided munitions. The Air Force's Wright Laboratory is currently testing a 1.06 micron wavelength laser radar (ladar) at Eglin Air Force Base. Since laser radiation can be susceptible to propagation problems through weather, quantitative understanding of these effects is important to the development of this weapon system. Ladar image degradation, in the form of target dropouts and false returns, was evaluated in various weather conditions. Statistical analysis of the images presented expected degrees of degradation according to visibility and rain fall …

The Meteorological Effects Of The Kuwait Oil Fires, Patrick Kevin Dowling

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

No abstract provided.

Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman

Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, a class of time series models for forecasting a hurricanes future position based on its previous positions and a generalized model of hurricane motion are examined and extended. Results of a literature review suggest that meteorological models continue to increase in complexity while few statistical approaches, such as linear regression, have been successfully applied. An exception is provided by a certain class of time series models that appear to forecast storms almost as well as current meteorological models without their tremendous complexity. A suggestion for enhancing the performance of these time series models is pursued through an …

Investigation Of Hydrometeorological Relationships, Pasu Glacier Basin, Northern Pakistan, Bob Boyce

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Records of air temperature, global radiation and discharge from the Pasu Glacier basin in the Upper Indus River Basin have been examined with a view to developing a modest understanding of the simple physically based processes in action within this globally extreme mountainous region. Some glaciological data are also reported but in a preliminary manner. Relationships between air temperature characteristics, global radiation and discharge were investigated using correlation techniques. Daily average air temperatures recorded at the highest meteorological station, Parundas (4200m), provide the strongest degree of association with discharge. The data shows that this highly glacierised Karakoram basin exhibits similar …

Summer Stormflow Generation In A Small Precambrian Shield Basin, Larry C. Pezzuto

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

The environmental isotope oxygen-18 and natural water chemistry were used to identify both the percent individual source component and mechanisms responsible for generating summer surface storm runoff in a small Precambrian Shield catchment. In addition, variations in radon gas (Rn-222) concentration in both surface and groundwaters were monitored in order to gain additional information not obtainable through use of the above stated tracers. Results indicate that the percent component contribution and the mechanism(s) responsible for stormflow generation within the study basin are largely dependent upon antecedent basin conditions and physical storm characteristics. Generally speaking, shortly after initiation of precipitation under …

Spatial And Temporal Variation Of Snow Accumulation In The Central Karakoram, Northern Pakistan, Cameron Parker Wake

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Runoff from the Upper Indus Basin depends upon snowfall at high elevations in the northern mountains of Pakistan. However, very little is known concerning the amount of snowfall in the major source area, the high Karakoram, or its spatial and temporal distribution. Glaciers contain well preserved records of snow accumulation and provide a unique tool for retrieving data. A number of studies on temperate and tropical glaciers indicate that variations in chemical content and microparticle concentrations delineates seasonal stratigraphy. In addition, the chemical record of the snowpack can usually be used to determine the source of precipitation. Field work in …

Storm Surge Predictions At Sewell's Point With Local Wind, Pressure, And Previous Surge As Surge Predictors In Chesapeake Bay, Joy Elaine Moses

OES Theses and Dissertations

The statistical model used to predict storm surge. which is defined as the difference between observed water level and predicted astronomical tide. at Sewell's Point. Virginia. for the last ten years relies on forecast surface air pressures interpolated over a large portion of the Atlantic Ocean. A variation on this method is developed which adds previous station surge and local wind and pressure terms with time leads up to 18 hours to the Pore prediction for surge. and develops surge prediction equations for three substations eight to 65 miles (13 to 105 km) from Sewell's Point. The Sewell's Point surge …

Investigation Of Eddy Population And Motion In The Southern International Ice Patrol Operations Area (40°-47°N By 40°-55°W), Frank J. Williams

OES Theses and Dissertations

A study of the eddy population in the Newfoundland Basin region over the period from November 1981 to December 1984 was conducted. The study was undertaken to demonstrate the importance and basic character of eddy motion in the area patrolled by the International Ice Patrol. This is a descriptive study and no rigorous mathematical solutions are attempted. Data was collected on the number of eddies in the area, their average duration and size, formation, migration and deterioration patterns and rotational velocity. Satellite infrared imagery maintained by National Weather Service and Naval Eastern Oceanographic Center, Canadian Forces METOC Center sea surface …

Variability Of Atmospheric Hydrocarbon Concentrations And Deposition Rates, Charles Thomas Farmer

OES Theses and Dissertations

The atmospheric hydrocarbon concentration was determined at various locations throughout Southeastern Virginia from July 1981 to February 1983. During this period the concentration ranged from 0.4 to 5.5 μg/m³ . From October 1982 to February 1983, WET and dry deposition samples were collected in conjunction with these air samples. Total hydrocarbon dry deposition rates ranged from deposition rates ranged from 4 to 189 μg/m² /day, while WET 22 to 670 μg/m² /day. Hydrocarbon concentrations found were within the ranges reported in the literature for wet, dry and atmospheric hydrocarbon concentrations.

Linear trend analysis revealed no correlation between …