Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
- Institution
Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Trends In Observed And Simulated Radar Reflectivity For The 21st Century, Christopher Michael Battisto
Trends In Observed And Simulated Radar Reflectivity For The 21st Century, Christopher Michael Battisto
Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations
The effects of climate change may influence the prevalence of regional atmospheric conditions supportive of hazardous convective weather (HCW). As a result, the possibility of an increase in the frequency, strength, and/or variability of thunderstorms and their high-impact hazards—including tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flood-producing downpours—has garnered much scientific and public interest. Radar reflectivity, which remotely assesses precipitation intensity, may be used to detect, track, catalog, and appraise HCW and their parent storms over broad spatiotemporal scales. Reflectivity may also be simulated with regional climate models, and recent, but limited, efforts using these simulation output have identified the potential …
A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger
A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger
Theses and Dissertations
Severe wind gusts and thunderstorms have been difficult to forecast in Africa. Traditional convective forecast tools (e.g. Total Totals Index, Lifted Index, K Index (KI) and Convective Available Potential Energy) do not accurately portray potential for thunderstorms in Africa. This research effort used the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), a convective index created for the tropics, and assess its applicability to northern Africa. GDI was produced for the Caribbean and Central America, and utilized temperature, moisture, mid-level stability, dry air entrainment and an elevation factor to calculate convective potential. In this research, GDI and KI were calculated using Global Forecast System (GFS) …
Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden
Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden
Theses and Dissertations
Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are important to space launch, aviation, and public safety. While prior studies have primarily focused on atmospheric conditions leading to lightning onset, less research has been dedicated to the challenging problem of predicting lightning cessation. This study verifies the probabilistic lightning cessation model developed by Joseph Patton (2017) at Florida State University for use by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The Washington, D.C. greater metropolitan area, which presents a climate different to that of central …
Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King
Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King
Theses and Dissertations
Summer thunderstorms pose the greatest forecast challenge for the United States Air Force's 96th Weather Flight (96WF) which provides weather support for Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). Located on Florida's panhandle, Eglin AFB encompasses the Department of Defense's largest range complex which covers 134,000 sq mi (347,000 sq km) of water and 724 sq mi (1875 sq km) of land. Due to the base's coastal location and unique coastline geometry, sea breeze is a dominant forecast consideration for thunderstorms. The 96 WF currently utilizes an empirical method, called WINNDEX, developed by former staff meteorologist Roger Winn to aid in thunderstorm …
The Educational Training Of Storm Chasers And Storm Spotters In Relation To Geographical Dispersion Across The United States, Paul R. Zunkel
The Educational Training Of Storm Chasers And Storm Spotters In Relation To Geographical Dispersion Across The United States, Paul R. Zunkel
All Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects
When severe weather strikes, storm chasers and storm spotters confirm that what forecasters and meteorologists are seeing on a radar screen is actually occurring in the field. While some documenters are classically trained (i.e. they have a background in atmospheric science and or meteorology attained from a 4 year university) many others are not. There are currently two organizations available for the weather enthusiast to be a part of, SKYWARN and SpotterNetwork. These organizations give weather enthusiasts a background knowledge into severe weather; however, many weather enthusiasts are not classically trained and most have not taken any formal education in …
Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using A Meso-Eta Model-Based Index, John C. Crane
Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using A Meso-Eta Model-Based Index, John C. Crane
Theses and Dissertations
Reliable thunderstorm forecasts are essential to safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. Current methods of forecasting day-2 thunderstorms provide little improvement over forecasting by persistence alone and are therefore in need of replacement. This research focused on using the mesoscale eta model to develop an index for improved forecasting of day-2 thunderstorms. Logistic regression techniques were used to regress the occurrence of a thunderstorm at Cape Canaveral against day-2 forecast variables output, or derived, from the mesoscale eta model. Accuracy and bias scores were calculated for the forecasts made by the regression equations, and the forecast results were compared …
An Improved Thunderstorm Forecast Index For Cape Canaveral, Florida, James A. Everitt
An Improved Thunderstorm Forecast Index For Cape Canaveral, Florida, James A. Everitt
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis creates a new algorithm to replace the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick AFB, Florida, uses the NPTI as an objective means of determining the probability of thunderstorm occurrence at Cape Canaveral. The probability is used for mission planning and resource protection, and increasing the accuracy of NPTI can potentially save billions of dollars for the United States space program. Stratified logistical regressions are performed and probability equations are derived for May through September using upper air data and surface observations for Cape Canaveral. A logistical regression of NPTI was also performed. Variables include …
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-Eta Numerical Model Output, Christian S. Wohlwend
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-Eta Numerical Model Output, Christian S. Wohlwend
Theses and Dissertations
The 45th Weather Squadron (WS) is responsible for the protection of billions of dollars worth of Air Force and NASA equipment from weather hazards. They produce a seven day planning forecast as one tool to support the space launch community. Improving this forecast can potentially save millions of dollars of government funds. This research focuses on the feasibility of improving the day two thunderstorm forecast by applying Meso Eta numerical forecasts to the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The NPTI is currently used by the 45th WS for same day thunderstorm probability forecasting utilizing the morning radiosonde as input. The perfect …
Forecasting Wet Microbursts Associated With Summertime Airmass Thunderstorms Over The Southeastern United States, James B. Mackey
Forecasting Wet Microbursts Associated With Summertime Airmass Thunderstorms Over The Southeastern United States, James B. Mackey
Theses and Dissertations
Microbursts are intense downbursts from thunderstorms that affect an area less than 4 km and have a lifespan less than 10 minutes. Wet microbursts are associated with heavy precipitation and are common in the eastern and southeastern part of the country. The greatest threat from microbursts is to low flying aircraft, where the rapid fluctuations in horizontal and vertical airflow create tremendous shear zones. Microbursts have been determined to be the causal factor behind at least three major aircraft accidents resulting in numerous fatalities. Due to the short lifespan of microbursts, they often strike without warning and pose a serious …