Meteorology Commons^™

Polarimetric Radar Signatures In Significant Severe Left-Moving Supercells, Raychel Nelson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Left-moving (LM) supercells, though rarer than right-moving (RM) supercells, may produce significant severe weather. However, there are very few existing studies on LM supercells, particularly polarimetric radar analyses. The upgrade of the nationwide Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network to polarimetric capability and subsequent studies vastly improved understanding of RM supercells, but similar efforts have largely not been made for LM supercells. This study employs an automated polarimetric radar signature detection algorithm to examine a dataset of significant severe (hail ≥ 2.00”, wind ≥ 65 kts) LM supercells to quantify their polarimetric signatures. Comparisons are made with RM supercells to …

A Dual-Polarimetric Analysis Of A Large Sample Of Left-Moving Supercells, Ben Schweigert

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Supercells have been researched extensively since they were first described over 50 years ago. They are prolific severe weather producers, responsible for the most severe hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. These rotating thunderstorms require attention from forecasters to protect life and property from their threats, most effectively done with Doppler radars. While extensive amounts of radar-based investigations have been completed, they focused almost exclusively on right-moving (RM) supercells, resulting in a knowledge gap surrounding their counter-rotating (left-moving, LM) partners. This study works to fill the void by developing a dataset of LM supercells and analyzing the dual-polarimetric features observed …

¿Aviso O Alerta? Developing Effective, Inclusive, And Consistent Watch And Warning Translations For U.S. Spanish Speakers, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón, América R. Gaviria Pabón, Joseph T. Ripberger, Abby Bitterman, Jonathan B. Thornton, Mackenzie J. Krocak, Sean R. Ernst, Estilita Cassiani Obeso, John Lipski

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Spanish-speaking populations in the United States are more vulnerable in disaster contexts due to inequities, such as language barriers, that prevent them from receiving life-saving information. For the past couple of decades, governmental organizations have addressed these issues by translating weather watches, warnings, and advisories into Spanish. Previous studies suggest that these Spanish translations do not communicate the same level of urgency as their English counterparts. To identify whether these translated products result in inequities between English and Spanish speaker reception and comprehension of forecast information, we asked a representative sample of U.S. English (n = 1,550) and Spanish (n …

A Historical Analysis Of The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agencies (Fema) Response And Recovery To Gulf Coast Hurricane And Other Weather-Related Disasters, Lauren Marie Denning

Graduate Research Papers

The growing changes in our environment combined with the increased number of catastrophic climate and weather- related events are occurring more frequently and continuing to intensify in the United States and Worldwide. These events are resulting in mass destruction in our environment and infrastructure, significant loss in human lives, and costing billions of dollars in response and recovery. Although there is no way to prevent these events, governments and populations can take steps to adapt and prepare for these events. This will ultimately decrease the overall impacts that these events have on our environment and future generations to come.

This …

Multifidelity Prediction In Wildfire Spread Simulation: Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis, Mario Miguel Valero, Lluís Jofre, Ricardo Torres

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

Wildfire behavior predictions typically suffer from significant uncertainty. However, wildfire modeling uncertainties remain largely unquantified in the literature, mainly due to computing constraints. New multifidelity techniques provide a promising opportunity to overcome these limitations. Therefore, this paper explores the applicability of multifidelity approaches to wildland fire spread prediction problems. Using a canonical simulation scenario, we assessed the performance of control variates Monte-Carlo (MC) and multilevel MC strategies, achieving speedups of up to 100x in comparison to a standard MC method. This improvement was leveraged to quantify aleatoric uncertainties and analyze the sensitivity of the fire rate of spread (RoS) to …

Hazardous Weather Communication En Español: Challenges, Current Resources, And Future Practices, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón, Orlando Bermúdez, Krizia Negrón-Hernández, John Lipski, Elizabeth Leitman, Kodi Berry

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

According to recent Census data, the Hispanic or Latino population represents nearly 1 in 5 Americans today, where 71.1% of these individuals speak Spanish at home. Despite increased efforts among the weather enterprise, establishing effective risk communication strategies for Spanish-speaking populations has been an uphill battle. No frameworks exist for translating weather information into the Spanish language, nor are there collective solutions that address this problem within the weather world. The objective of this article is threefold. First, the current translation issue in Spanish is highlighted. Through research conducted at the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, situations are revealed where regional …

Statement Of World Aquatic Scientific Societies On The Need To Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based On Scientific Evidence [Dear Colleague Letter], Scott A. Bonar, Brian R. Murphy, Leanne H. Roulson, Jesse T. Trushenski, Douglas J. Austen, Michael Edward Douglas

United States Fish and Wildlife: Staff Publications

Dear Colleague Letter from the American Fisheries Society to fellow scientific societies, July 25, 2020, about the urgent need for responsive collective action to mitigate impending radical climate change. Includes the Statement of World Aquatic Scientific Societies on the Need to Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based on Scientific Evidence, emphasizing the importance of aquatic ecosystems. Includes extensive citations and notes.

"Water is the most important natural resource on Earth as it is vital for life. Aquatic ecosystems, freshwater or marine, provide multiple benefits to human society, such as provisioning of oxygen, food, drinking water, genetic resources; regulation …

Old Dominion University Partners With Hampton Roads Community Foundation To Speed Severe Weather Recovery, Joe Garvey

News Items

No abstract provided.

Flood Resilience Community Outreach Using The Asert Framework, Michelle Covi, Wie Yusuf, Carol Considine, Gail Nicula, Afi Anuar, Makayla Brown

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

Report on a program for public engagement meetings using the ASERT (Action-oriented Stakeholder Engagement for a Resilient Tomorrow) framework to solicit resident input into the City of Virginia Beach’s Comprehensive Sea Level Rise and Recurrent Flooding Analysis and Planning Study. A series of community meetings from December 2017-January 2018 took the form of a “Flood Resilience Game Night” with five stations in which residents could participate in activities to earn stamps on a game card.

Agenda, Hr Adaptation Forum

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Perceptions Of Tornadoes, Tornado Warnings, Safety Actions, And Risk: Effects On Warning Response Among Undergraduates In Nebraska, Sabrina T. Jauernic

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Few studies show how university students perceive and respond to tornado warnings, or how they gain tornado-related knowledge. Lacking in the literature are investigations of how perceptions of tornado risk may influence actions. Using two separate surveys and two large samples of undergraduates enrolled in the University of Nebraska, the author determined significant relationships between student demographics, perceptions, and response actions. Incorrect perceptions were found, such as overpasses and southwest corners of buildings being safe, and cities being invulnerable to tornadoes. International students, especially, assumed cities were safe from tornadoes. Students had a tendency to confirm their risk instead of …

Flooding In The Media, Jeremy Wheeler

July 24, 2015: Communicating Frequent Flooding

No abstract provided.

Flood Risk Communications - An Emergency Management Perspective, Robb Braidwood

July 24, 2015: Communicating Frequent Flooding

No abstract provided.

The Storm Surge Hazard, Jeff Orrock

January 23, 2015: Storm Surge Modeling Tools for Planning and Response

No abstract provided.

Slides: Adapting To Climate Change: Lessons Learnt From The Australian Water Experience, Will Fargher

Conversation with Water Management Reps from Colorado and Australia: "Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons Learned from Australia" (February 14)

Presenter: Will Fargher, National Water Commission, Australian Government

18 slides [4 have titles only and are missing images]

Slides: Environmental Water In Australia, Chris Arnott

Conversation with Water Management Reps from Colorado and Australia: "Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons Learned from Australia" (February 14)

Presenter: Chris Arnott, Managing Director, Alluvium Consulting

30 slides

System Analysis Of The Uri Hurricane Preparedness Plan, Rebecca Harlow

Senior Honors Projects

If a hurricane were to hit URI in the upcoming fall semester what would happen? This project is a thorough evaluation of the current URI plan, how it works, how it doesn’t and who has the answers. The project is framed from an information systems perspective. The analysis of the system is based on where vital information is stored, how it is communicated when needed and who is involved. To find the answers to these questions, in depth interviews were conducted with key emergency personnel. Among them are URI’s Director of Safety and Risk, J Kevin Culley, Major Baker of …

Diagnosis Of The July 6, 2002 Ogallala, Nebraska Flash Flood, David B. Radell, Mark R. Anderson, John W. Stoppkotte, James R. Mccormick

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

During the early morning hours of 6 July 2002, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) traversed southwestern Nebraska and produced more than 40 cm of precipitation, resulting in a flash flood that closed Interstate 80 and caused one fatality near Ogallala, Nebraska. Regional climatology yields that this flash flood ranked first in precipitation amount for a 24 hour period over the past one hundred years. Synoptic and mesoscale features similar to other flash flooding events and conducive to extremely heavy precipitation were in place over the Central Plains, including a weak upper level ridge, high precipitable water values (180% of normal), …

A Recommendation For An Enhanced Fujita Scale (Ef-Scale)

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Background

National Weather Service (NWS) personnel who are responsible for rating tornadoes have expressed frustrations in applying the Fujita Scale in a consistent and accurate manner. Weak links in a structural system or a slow-moving storm sometimes lead to an overrating of a tornado event. Several technical articles suggest that wind speeds associated with some descriptions of damage are too high. For example, a 260 mph wind speed is not required to completely destroy a well constructed house and blow away the debris. The damage occurs at significantly lower wind speeds. Minor et al. (1977) and Phan and Simiu (2003) …

Estimating The Probability Of Severe Convective Storms: A Local Perspective For The Central And Northern Plains, Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Summary and Conclusions

A procedure to estimate probabilities of the occurrence of severe convective storms within local areas has been described. Probabilities were based on a simulated climatology and the relative frequency of severe convective events when a selected site was contained within an operational Outlook or Watch. Combined data from five local areas were used to develop a general model for local probabilities within the central and northern Plains region. Attachment of probabilities to specific products placed values within a framework familiar to both forecasters and "end-users." Application of results in an operational scenario demonstrated representative local probabilities and …

Thunderstorms And Tornadoes Of February 1, 1955, Jean T. Lee

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

The purpose of this paper is to describe and illustrate some of the features that are of particular interest in the forecasting of one of the most death-dealing series of convective storms of the 1950s that occurred during the afternoon and evening of February 1, 1955. This series of severe storms included tornadoes, destructive winds, hail, and heavy rain that first struck near Marianata, Arkansas, then roared through Commerce Landing, Mississippi and northern Mississippi. then moved on to near Huntsville, Alabama.

Includes features at the surface, at 850 mb, 700 mb, and 500 mb, and upper air conditions, along with …