Meteorology Commons^™

Effects Of Climate Oscillations On Wind Resource Variability In The United States, B. D. Hamlington, P. E. Hamlington, S. G. Collins, S. R. Alexander, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Natural climate variations in the United States wind resource are assessed by using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) to decompose wind reanalysis data. Compared to approaches that average climate signals or assume stationarity of the wind resource on interannual time scales, the CSEOF analysis isolates variability associated with specific climate oscillations, as well as their modulation from year to year. Contributions to wind speed variability from the modulated annual cycle (MAC) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are quantified, and information provided by the CSEOF analysis further allows the spatial variability of these effects to be determined. The impacts of …

A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Past studies have described large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in the Southern Hemisphere that lead to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and cold events (WE and CE). By relying on this description and the importance of the related variability in the lead up to WE and CE, Southern Hemisphere SLP variations in May-June-July (MJJ) are shown here to be excellent predictors for the peak warm/cold events in sea-surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressure that mark the mature phase of a warm/cold event in November-January of the same year. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) are used to extract the …

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Horizontal Divergence Of Typhoon-Generated Gravity Waves In The Upper Troposphere And Lower Stratosphere (Utls) And Its Influence On Typhoon Evolution, Seung Hee Kim, H.-Y. Chun, W. Jang

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The characteristics of horizontal divergence induced by typhoon-generated gravity waves (HDTGWs) and the influence of HDTGW on typhoon evolution are investigated based on the simulation results of Typhoon Saomai (2006) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The power spectral density of HDTGW shows dominant powers at horizontal wavelengths of 20-30 km and at periods of less than 1 h. This is associated with gravity waves generated by vigorous convective clouds in an inner core region of the typhoon. However, the domain-averaged HDTGW in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere had a spectral peak at 24 h, which is …

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

Safety Analysis Of Ice Navigation In Huanghua Waters, Hongtu Qiu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Sst In The Atlantic From Observations And Gcms, James Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Fema Region Iii Coastal Storm Surge Study, Mike Forte, Jeff Hanson, Michelle Hamor

March 13, 2013: Regional Sea Level Rise Assessment, Adaptation and Flood Mitigation Projects

No abstract provided.

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Ocean Warmth, James B. Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Jill C. Trepanier, Thomas H. Jagger

Publications

No abstract provided.

Long-Term Changes To The Frost-Free Season As A Function Of Climatic Continentality, Ian Blaylock

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The beginning, end, and length of the annual frost-free season vary considerably both spatially and temporally. The continentality of the climate of a given area has a close connection with the magnitude and nature of these variations. Long term changes in the frost-free season can be divided into three distinct phases: a lengthening of the frost-free season in the early 20^th century, a shortening in the mid-20^th century, and a renewed, intensified lengthening from 1970 to today. While oceanic and ultraoceanic climates experience decreased incidence of frosts relative to their continental counterparts, analysis has shown that overall 20 …

Design Of A Software Framework Prototype For Scientific Model Interoperability, Eric Fritzinger, Sohei Okamoto

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

19 PowerPoint slides Session 2: Infrastructure Convener: Sergiu Dascalu, UNR Abstract: -What are models? -Mathematical models used to describe a system -E.g. Atmospheric, Oceanic, Ecological, etc… -Algorithmic calculations which take input and produce estimated results -Weather forecasting, global warming predictions, sea level estimations, etc… -Models are invaluable

The 2009-2010 El Nino: Hydrologic Relief To U.S. Regions, Glenn A. Tootle, Thomas C. Piechota, Oubeidillah Aziz, William Paul Miller, Venkat Lakshmi, John A. Dracup, Carly Jerla

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Current forecasts by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are that the Pacific Ocean will experience El Niño conditions in late 2009 and into 2010. These forecasts are similar to past El Niño events in 1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1986–1987, and 2002–2003.

Evaluating the hydrologic conditions for these past El Niño events reveals that during these times, surface water supply conditions improved in many parts of the United States, including the Southeast, Midwest, and Southwest. At the same time, the Pacific Northwest and other specific regions of the United States experienced below-average water supply conditions. This is consistent with the …

Numerical Simulations Of The Impacts Of The Saharan Air Layer On Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Development, Donglian Sun, K. M. Lau, Menas Kafatos, Z. Boybeyi, G. Leptoukh, C. Yang, Ruixin Yang

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

In this study, the role of the Saharan air layer (SAL) is investigated in the development and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) via modifying environmental stability and moisture, using multisensor satellite data, long-term TC track and intensity records, dust data, and numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The long-term relationship between dust and Atlantic TC activity shows that dust aerosols are negatively associated with hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, especially with the major hurricanes in the western Atlantic region. Numerical simulations with the WRF for specific cases during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses …

Combining Remote Sensing Data And An Inundation Model To Map Tidal Mudflat Regions And Improve Flood Predictions: A Proof Of Concept Demonstration In Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tal Ezer, Hua Liu

CCPO Publications

Accurate flood predictions require high resolution inundation numerical models and detailed coastal and land topography data. However, such data are not always available. A new method to obtain topographic information of flood zones from remote sensing data is demonstrated here for Cook Inlet, Alaska, where tidal range reaches 8-10 m. The moving shoreline is detected from analysis of water coverage in satellite images taken at different tidal stages, and then the shoreline data from different times are combined with water level data from observations and models to produce new topographic maps of previously unobserved mudflats. The remote sensing-based analysis provides …

Enhanced Pre-Monsoon Warming Over The Himalayan-Gangetic Region From 1979-2007, Ritesh Gautam, N. C. Hsu, K. M. Lau, S.-C. Tsay, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Fundamental to the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon is the land-sea thermal gradient from the Indian Ocean to the Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HTP). The timing of the onset is strongly controlled by the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient due to the rapid premonsoon heating of the HTP compared to the relatively cooler Indian Ocean. Analysis of tropospheric temperatures from the longest available record of microwave satellite measurements reveals widespread warming over the Himalayan-Gangetic region and consequent strengthening of the land-sea thermal gradient. This trend is most pronounced in the pre-monsoon season, resulting in a warming of 2.7 C in the 29-year …

Hurricane Katrina, 2005 (Sc 1669), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

Manuscript Collection Finding Aids

Finding aid only for Manuscripts Small Collection 1669. E-mails related to the personal and governmental response to Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana.

Contrasting The 2007 And 2005 Hurricane Seasons: Evidence Of Possible Impacts Of Saharan Dry Air And Dust On Tropical Cyclone Activity In The Atlantic Basin, D. Sun, K. M. Lau, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

In this study, we provide preliminary evidence of possible modulation by Saharan dust of hurricane genesis and intensification, by contrasting the 2007 and 2005 hurricane seasons. It is found that dust aerosol loadings over the Atlantic Ocean are much higher in 2007 than in 2005. The temperature difference between 2007 and 2005 shows warming in the low-middle troposphere (900–700 hPa) in the dusty region in the eastern North Atlantic, and cooling in the Main Development Region (MDR). The humidity (wind) differences between 2007 and 2005 indicate significant drying (subsidence) in the Western North Atlantic (WNA) in 2007. The drier air …

Loop Current Warming By Hurricane Wilma, Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Dong-Ping Wang, S. J. Fan, Xun-Qiang Yin

CCPO Publications

Hurricanes mix and cool the upper ocean, as shown here in observations and modeling of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the passage of hurricane Wilma. Curiously, the upper ocean around the Loop Current warmed prior to Wilma's entrance into the Gulf. The major cause was increased volume and heat transports through the Yucatan Channel produced by storm-induced convergences in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Such oceanic variability may have important impacts on hurricane predictions.

Hydrographic And Biological Changes In The Taiwan Strait During The 1997-1998 El Niño Winter, S. Shang, C. Zhang, H. Hong, Q. Liu, G. T. F. Wong, C. Hu, B. Huang

OES Faculty Publications

During the 1997–1998 El Niño event, the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Taiwan Strait (TWS) in the winter was ~1.4°C higher than that of the winter climatological mean. The areal ratio of the warm water (≥2°C above the regional mean) to the cold water (≥2°C below the regional mean) in the TWS increased by 25% while the area of the eutrophic water (chlorophyll a >1 mg m^-3) was halved. Field observations also indicate that the mixed layer in the TWS became more nutrient-poor during this winter. These observations are consistent with a diminished advection of the …

Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) MOM 2] with one degree horizontal resolution is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of frontogenesis in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) and the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ) of the North Pacific Ocean. The SAFZ in the model contains deep (greater than 500 m in some places) regions with seasonally varying high gradients in temperature and salinity. The gradients generally weaken toward the east. The STFZ consists of a relatively shallow (less than 200 m in most places) region of high gradient in temperature that disappears in the summer/fall. The high …

Studies Of Warm-Core Rings Using A Particle-In-Cell Method, John James Holdzkom Ii

OES Theses and Dissertations

A particle-in-cell (PIC) model is developed and applied to problems involving the evolution of warm-core rings. Such models are a hybrid of conventional Eulerian and Lagrangian models. They are ideally suited for problems in which a lower layer outcrops to the surface, such as at the boundary of a ring.

The model is developed in three implementations. First, for purposes of model validation, a reduced gravity model is described. The PIC model reproduces the essential characteristics of analytical solutions to the reduced gravity equations and integral invariants are conserved to a high degree. Next, a 1.5-layer model is developed and …

Data Assimilation Experiments In The Gulf Stream Region: How Useful Are Satellite-Derived Surface Data For Nowcasting The Subsurface Fields?, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor

CCPO Publications

Satellite-derived surface data have become an important source of information for studies of the Gulf Stream system. The question of just how useful these datasets are for nowcasting the subsurface thermal fields, however, remains to be fully explored. Three types of surface data-sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and Gulf Stream position (GSP)-are used here in a series of data assimilation experiments to test their usefulness when assimilated into a realistic primitive equation model. The U.S. Navy's analysis fields from the Optimal Thermal Interpolation System are used to simulate the surface data and to evaluate nowcast errors. Correlation …

Continuous Assimilation Of Geosat Altimeter Data Into A Three-Dimensional Primitive Equation Gulf Stream Model, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor

CCPO Publications

A three-dimensional data assimilation scheme is described and tested, using the Geosat altimeter data and a high-resolution, primitive equation, numerical ocean model of the Gulf Stream region. The assimilation scheme is based on an optimal interpolation approach in which data along satellite tracks are continuously interpolated horizontally and vertically into the model grid and assimilated with the model prognostic fields. Preprocessed correlations between surface elevation anomalies and subsurface temperature and salinity anomalies are used to project surface information into the deep ocean; model and data error estimates are used to optimize the assimilation. Analysis fields derived from the Navy's Optimum …

A Numerical Study Of The Variability And The Separation Of The Gulf Stream, Induced By Surface Atmospheric Forcing And Lateral Boundary Flows, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model is used to study the effects of surface and lateral forcing on the variability and the climatology of the Gulf Stream system. The model is an eddy-resolving, coastal ocean model that includes thermohaline dynamics and a second-order turbulence closure scheme to provide vertical mixing. The surface forcing consists of wind stress and heat fluxes obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Sensitivity studies are performed by driving the model with different forcing (e.g., annual versus zero surface forcing or monthly versus annual forcing). The model climatology, obtained from a five-year simulation of each case, is …

Storm Surge Predictions At Sewell's Point With Local Wind, Pressure, And Previous Surge As Surge Predictors In Chesapeake Bay, Joy Elaine Moses

OES Theses and Dissertations

The statistical model used to predict storm surge. which is defined as the difference between observed water level and predicted astronomical tide. at Sewell's Point. Virginia. for the last ten years relies on forecast surface air pressures interpolated over a large portion of the Atlantic Ocean. A variation on this method is developed which adds previous station surge and local wind and pressure terms with time leads up to 18 hours to the Pore prediction for surge. and develops surge prediction equations for three substations eight to 65 miles (13 to 105 km) from Sewell's Point. The Sewell's Point surge …

Investigation Of Eddy Population And Motion In The Southern International Ice Patrol Operations Area (40°-47°N By 40°-55°W), Frank J. Williams

OES Theses and Dissertations

A study of the eddy population in the Newfoundland Basin region over the period from November 1981 to December 1984 was conducted. The study was undertaken to demonstrate the importance and basic character of eddy motion in the area patrolled by the International Ice Patrol. This is a descriptive study and no rigorous mathematical solutions are attempted. Data was collected on the number of eddies in the area, their average duration and size, formation, migration and deterioration patterns and rotational velocity. Satellite infrared imagery maintained by National Weather Service and Naval Eastern Oceanographic Center, Canadian Forces METOC Center sea surface …

Effects Of El Nino On Local Hydrography And Growth Of The Giant Kelp, Macrocystis Pyrifera, At Santa Catalina Island, California, Richard C. Zimmerman, Deborah L. Robertson

OES Faculty Publications

Deepened isotherms associated with El Niño resulted in severe nutrient limitation and very low kelp productivity during the last half of 1983. Frond growth rates were so low that terminal blades formed before reaching the surface, eliminating the canopy. Frond initiation rates were also extremely low, resulting in significant reductions in mean plant size. Plants growing above 10m were more severely affected than plants at 20m. Nutrient pulses associated with internal waves are thus critical for survival of Macrocystis pyrifera in nutritionally marginal habitats in Southern California.

Numerical Model Simulation Of Offshore Flow During The Winter Season, Maria Cintia Piccolo

OES Theses and Dissertations

Because of the step function variability of heat and moisture flux in coastal zones, adequate descriptive models of mesoscale coastal circulation and weather patterns demand high spatial resolution in the analysis of wind, temperature and moisture patterns. To obtain realistic concepts of offshore flow the sparse offshore data networks need to be supplemented by mesoscale numerical models. The problems associated with the modeling of offshore flow across the east coast of the United States during the winter season have been investigated with a simple two dimensional numerical model of the planetary boundary layer.

The model has two predictive equations for …