Meteorology Commons^™

Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …

Introduction To Storm Surge Modeling, Rick Luettich

January 23, 2015: Storm Surge Modeling Tools for Planning and Response

No abstract provided.

A Southern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure-Based Precursor For Enso Warm And Cold Events, B. D. Hamlington, R. F. Milliff, H. Van Loon, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Past studies have described large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in the Southern Hemisphere that lead to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and cold events (WE and CE). By relying on this description and the importance of the related variability in the lead up to WE and CE, Southern Hemisphere SLP variations in May-June-July (MJJ) are shown here to be excellent predictors for the peak warm/cold events in sea-surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressure that mark the mature phase of a warm/cold event in November-January of the same year. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) are used to extract the …

Effects Of Climate Oscillations On Wind Resource Variability In The United States, B. D. Hamlington, P. E. Hamlington, S. G. Collins, S. R. Alexander, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

Natural climate variations in the United States wind resource are assessed by using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) to decompose wind reanalysis data. Compared to approaches that average climate signals or assume stationarity of the wind resource on interannual time scales, the CSEOF analysis isolates variability associated with specific climate oscillations, as well as their modulation from year to year. Contributions to wind speed variability from the modulated annual cycle (MAC) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are quantified, and information provided by the CSEOF analysis further allows the spatial variability of these effects to be determined. The impacts of …

Fema Region Iii Coastal Storm Surge Study, Mike Forte, Jeff Hanson, Michelle Hamor

March 13, 2013: Regional Sea Level Rise Assessment, Adaptation and Flood Mitigation Projects

No abstract provided.

Combining Remote Sensing Data And An Inundation Model To Map Tidal Mudflat Regions And Improve Flood Predictions: A Proof Of Concept Demonstration In Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tal Ezer, Hua Liu

CCPO Publications

Accurate flood predictions require high resolution inundation numerical models and detailed coastal and land topography data. However, such data are not always available. A new method to obtain topographic information of flood zones from remote sensing data is demonstrated here for Cook Inlet, Alaska, where tidal range reaches 8-10 m. The moving shoreline is detected from analysis of water coverage in satellite images taken at different tidal stages, and then the shoreline data from different times are combined with water level data from observations and models to produce new topographic maps of previously unobserved mudflats. The remote sensing-based analysis provides …

Loop Current Warming By Hurricane Wilma, Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Dong-Ping Wang, S. J. Fan, Xun-Qiang Yin

CCPO Publications

Hurricanes mix and cool the upper ocean, as shown here in observations and modeling of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the passage of hurricane Wilma. Curiously, the upper ocean around the Loop Current warmed prior to Wilma's entrance into the Gulf. The major cause was increased volume and heat transports through the Yucatan Channel produced by storm-induced convergences in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Such oceanic variability may have important impacts on hurricane predictions.

Hydrographic And Biological Changes In The Taiwan Strait During The 1997-1998 El Niño Winter, S. Shang, C. Zhang, H. Hong, Q. Liu, G. T. F. Wong, C. Hu, B. Huang

OES Faculty Publications

During the 1997–1998 El Niño event, the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Taiwan Strait (TWS) in the winter was ~1.4°C higher than that of the winter climatological mean. The areal ratio of the warm water (≥2°C above the regional mean) to the cold water (≥2°C below the regional mean) in the TWS increased by 25% while the area of the eutrophic water (chlorophyll a >1 mg m^-3) was halved. Field observations also indicate that the mixed layer in the TWS became more nutrient-poor during this winter. These observations are consistent with a diminished advection of the …

Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) MOM 2] with one degree horizontal resolution is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of frontogenesis in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) and the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ) of the North Pacific Ocean. The SAFZ in the model contains deep (greater than 500 m in some places) regions with seasonally varying high gradients in temperature and salinity. The gradients generally weaken toward the east. The STFZ consists of a relatively shallow (less than 200 m in most places) region of high gradient in temperature that disappears in the summer/fall. The high …

Studies Of Warm-Core Rings Using A Particle-In-Cell Method, John James Holdzkom Ii

OES Theses and Dissertations

A particle-in-cell (PIC) model is developed and applied to problems involving the evolution of warm-core rings. Such models are a hybrid of conventional Eulerian and Lagrangian models. They are ideally suited for problems in which a lower layer outcrops to the surface, such as at the boundary of a ring.

The model is developed in three implementations. First, for purposes of model validation, a reduced gravity model is described. The PIC model reproduces the essential characteristics of analytical solutions to the reduced gravity equations and integral invariants are conserved to a high degree. Next, a 1.5-layer model is developed and …

Data Assimilation Experiments In The Gulf Stream Region: How Useful Are Satellite-Derived Surface Data For Nowcasting The Subsurface Fields?, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor

CCPO Publications

Satellite-derived surface data have become an important source of information for studies of the Gulf Stream system. The question of just how useful these datasets are for nowcasting the subsurface thermal fields, however, remains to be fully explored. Three types of surface data-sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and Gulf Stream position (GSP)-are used here in a series of data assimilation experiments to test their usefulness when assimilated into a realistic primitive equation model. The U.S. Navy's analysis fields from the Optimal Thermal Interpolation System are used to simulate the surface data and to evaluate nowcast errors. Correlation …

Continuous Assimilation Of Geosat Altimeter Data Into A Three-Dimensional Primitive Equation Gulf Stream Model, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor

CCPO Publications

A three-dimensional data assimilation scheme is described and tested, using the Geosat altimeter data and a high-resolution, primitive equation, numerical ocean model of the Gulf Stream region. The assimilation scheme is based on an optimal interpolation approach in which data along satellite tracks are continuously interpolated horizontally and vertically into the model grid and assimilated with the model prognostic fields. Preprocessed correlations between surface elevation anomalies and subsurface temperature and salinity anomalies are used to project surface information into the deep ocean; model and data error estimates are used to optimize the assimilation. Analysis fields derived from the Navy's Optimum …

A Numerical Study Of The Variability And The Separation Of The Gulf Stream, Induced By Surface Atmospheric Forcing And Lateral Boundary Flows, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model is used to study the effects of surface and lateral forcing on the variability and the climatology of the Gulf Stream system. The model is an eddy-resolving, coastal ocean model that includes thermohaline dynamics and a second-order turbulence closure scheme to provide vertical mixing. The surface forcing consists of wind stress and heat fluxes obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Sensitivity studies are performed by driving the model with different forcing (e.g., annual versus zero surface forcing or monthly versus annual forcing). The model climatology, obtained from a five-year simulation of each case, is …

Storm Surge Predictions At Sewell's Point With Local Wind, Pressure, And Previous Surge As Surge Predictors In Chesapeake Bay, Joy Elaine Moses

OES Theses and Dissertations

The statistical model used to predict storm surge. which is defined as the difference between observed water level and predicted astronomical tide. at Sewell's Point. Virginia. for the last ten years relies on forecast surface air pressures interpolated over a large portion of the Atlantic Ocean. A variation on this method is developed which adds previous station surge and local wind and pressure terms with time leads up to 18 hours to the Pore prediction for surge. and develops surge prediction equations for three substations eight to 65 miles (13 to 105 km) from Sewell's Point. The Sewell's Point surge …

Investigation Of Eddy Population And Motion In The Southern International Ice Patrol Operations Area (40°-47°N By 40°-55°W), Frank J. Williams

OES Theses and Dissertations

A study of the eddy population in the Newfoundland Basin region over the period from November 1981 to December 1984 was conducted. The study was undertaken to demonstrate the importance and basic character of eddy motion in the area patrolled by the International Ice Patrol. This is a descriptive study and no rigorous mathematical solutions are attempted. Data was collected on the number of eddies in the area, their average duration and size, formation, migration and deterioration patterns and rotational velocity. Satellite infrared imagery maintained by National Weather Service and Naval Eastern Oceanographic Center, Canadian Forces METOC Center sea surface …

Effects Of El Nino On Local Hydrography And Growth Of The Giant Kelp, Macrocystis Pyrifera, At Santa Catalina Island, California, Richard C. Zimmerman, Deborah L. Robertson

OES Faculty Publications

Deepened isotherms associated with El Niño resulted in severe nutrient limitation and very low kelp productivity during the last half of 1983. Frond growth rates were so low that terminal blades formed before reaching the surface, eliminating the canopy. Frond initiation rates were also extremely low, resulting in significant reductions in mean plant size. Plants growing above 10m were more severely affected than plants at 20m. Nutrient pulses associated with internal waves are thus critical for survival of Macrocystis pyrifera in nutritionally marginal habitats in Southern California.

Numerical Model Simulation Of Offshore Flow During The Winter Season, Maria Cintia Piccolo

OES Theses and Dissertations

Because of the step function variability of heat and moisture flux in coastal zones, adequate descriptive models of mesoscale coastal circulation and weather patterns demand high spatial resolution in the analysis of wind, temperature and moisture patterns. To obtain realistic concepts of offshore flow the sparse offshore data networks need to be supplemented by mesoscale numerical models. The problems associated with the modeling of offshore flow across the east coast of the United States during the winter season have been investigated with a simple two dimensional numerical model of the planetary boundary layer.

The model has two predictive equations for …