Meteorology Commons^™

Tornado Outbreak False Alarm Probabilistic Forecasts With Machine Learning, Kirsten Reed Snodgrass

Theses and Dissertations

Tornadic outbreaks occur annually, causing fatalities and millions of dollars in damage. By improving forecasts, the public can be better equipped to act prior to an event. False alarms (FAs) can hinder the public’s ability (or willingness) to act. As such, a probabilistic FA forecasting scheme would be beneficial to improving public response to outbreaks.

Here, a machine learning approach is employed to predict FA likelihood from Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado outbreak forecasts. A database of hit and FA outbreak forecasts spanning 2010 – 2020 was developed using historical SPC convective outlooks and the SPC Storm Reports database. Weather …

Analysis Of Titan's Fluvial Features Using Numerical Modeling, Jeshurun Horton

Mechanical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

River channels have been observed near the Huygens probe landing site on the surface of Titan, along with evidence of rounded water ice boulders transported through fluid flow. Evidence near the landing site suggests active flow of liquid methane, which has motivated the study of the effects of sediment load and channel sizes on Titan’s fluvial features. A numerical model is used to determine the viscosity, flow velocity, and critical boulder transport diameter based on channel size, slope, and a range of sediment concentrations. This model achieves two ends: first, observed boulder diameters are used to determine the ideal channel …

Theoretical And Observational Analysis Of Ice Particles For Improvement Of Ice Microphysical Models, Vanessa Przybylo

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Frozen hydrometeors can grow to acquire a multitude of shapes and sizes, which influence the distribution of mass within cloud systems. Aggregates have a variety of formations based on initial ice particle size, shape, falling orientation, and the number of particles that collect. This work employs the theoretical Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator (IPAS) as a statistical tool to repetitively collect ice crystals to derive bulk aggregate characteristics.

The Effect Of Initial Conditions On The Weather Research And Forecasting Model, Aaron D. Baker

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Modeling our atmosphere and determining forecasts using numerical methods has been a challenge since the early 20th Century. Most models use a complex dynamical system of equations that prove difficult to solve by hand as they are chaotic by nature. When computer systems became more widely adopted and available, approximating the solution of these equations, numerically, became easier as computational power increased. This advancement in computing has caused numerous weather models to be created and implemented across the world. However a challenge of approximating these solutions accurately still exists as each model have varying set of equations and variables to …

Correction Of Back Trajectories Utilizing Machine Learning, Britta F. Gjermo Morrison

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this work was to analyze 24-hour back trajectory performance from a global, low-resolution weather model compared to a high-resolution limited area weather model in particular meteorological regimes, or flow patterns using K-means clustering, an unsupervised machine learning technique. The duration of this study was from 2015-2019 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three different machine learning algorithms were tested to study the utility of these methods improving the performance of the CFS relative to the performance of the RAP. The aforementioned machine learning techniques are linear regression, Bayesian ridge regression, and random forest regression. These results mean …

Environmental Discriminators For Significant Tornadoes And Hail In The U.S. Using Proximity Soundings, Cody Michael Converse

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Over the last 50 years, the United States has experienced an increase in severe storm events that produced $1 billion in damages or greater. Much of this loss is attributed to significant tornadoes and hail associated with deep, moist convection. Improving forecasts for these significant events assist in mitigating the impacts of these events. Previous work has identified statistically significant environmental parameters associated with severe thunderstorms, but more research is needed in identifying statistically significant ingredients associated with environments that produce significant tornadoes and hail.

This thesis aims to answer the following question: “Can diagnostics commonly used to forecast for …

Automated Image Interpretation For Science Autonomy In Robotic Planetary Exploration, Raymond Francis

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Advances in the capabilities of robotic planetary exploration missions have increased the wealth of scientific data they produce, presenting challenges for mission science and operations imposed by the limits of interplanetary radio communications. These data budget pressures can be relieved by increased robotic autonomy, both for onboard operations tasks and for decision- making in response to science data.

This thesis presents new techniques in automated image interpretation for natural scenes of relevance to planetary science and exploration, and elaborates autonomy scenarios under which they could be used to extend the reach and performance of exploration missions on planetary surfaces.

Two …

Using Neural Networks To Provide Local Weather Forecasts, Andrew Culclasure

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied extensively to both regress and classify weather phenomena. While one of the core strengths of neural networks is rendering accurate predictions with noisy datasets, there is currently not a significant amount of research focusing on whether ANNs are capable of producing accurate forecasts of relevant weather variables from small-scale, imperfect datasets. Also, there is not a significant amount of research focusing on the forecasting performance of neural networks applied to weather datasets that have been temporally rolled-up from a base dataset. In this paper, a survey of existing research on applying ANNs to …

A Google Earth-Based Framework For Visualization Of The Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System, Gary Lawson

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

For the persons who live near and travel the waters of the Chesapeake Bay, the data provided by the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) is invaluable. The information provided includes measurements and forecasts of surface wind velocity, water current velocity, salinity levels, water level, and temperature. Currently, this information is freely available on the CBQ_FS website hosted by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is offered as Nowcast, measured data, and Forecast data and is visualized using 2D images which describe a subset of the data in an easy to read chart. However, if the data were …

Suitability Of Unidata Metapps For Incorporation In Platform-Independent User-Customized Aviation Weather Products Generation Software, Harmen P. Visser

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC) is tasked to provide long-range seasonal forecasts for worldwide locations. Currently, the best long-range temperature forecasts the weather community has are the climatological standard normals. This study creates a stepping-stone into the solution of long-range forecasting by finding a process to predict temperatures better than those using climatological standard normals or simple frequency distributions of occurrences. Northern Hemispheric teleconnection indices and the standardized Southern Oscillation index are statistically compared to three-month summed Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) at 14 U.S. locations. First, linear regression was accomplished. The results showed …

A 3d Display System For Lightning Detection And Ranging (Ldar) Data, Michael W. Darwin

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning detection is an essential part of safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. In order to meet the unique needs of launching space vehicles in the thunderstorm prone Florida environment, Cape Canaveral has the only operational three- dimensional (3D) lightning detection network in the world, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system. Although lightning activity is detected in three dimensions, the current LDAR display, developed 20 years ago, is two-dimensional. This thesis uses modern three-dimensional graphics, object-oriented software design, and innovative visualization techniques to develop a 3D visualization application for LDAR data.

Data Warehouse Techniques To Support Global On-Demand Weather Forecast Metrics, Meriellen C. Joga

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force pilots and other operators make crucial mission planning decisions based on weather forecasts; therefore, the ability to forecast the weather accurately is a critical issue to Air Force Weather (AFW) and its customers. The goal of this research is to provide Air Force Weather with a methodology to automate statistical data analysis for the purpose of providing on-demand metrics. A data warehousing methodology is developed and applied to the weather metrics problem in order to present an option that will facilitate on-demand metrics. On-line analytical processing (OLAP) and data mining solutions are also discussed.

Extensible Markup Language As A Weather Tool, Michael J. Calidonna

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is a proof of concept work that will extend the Core Mapping Application Program Interface (CMAPI) components to include weather data. The CMAPI project is headed by Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)/Information Directorate Information Handling Branch (IFEB) at Rome labs in Rome, New York. This work extends the CMAPI project in two distinct areas. The first goal is to figure out how to overlay and display weather data on a dynamically linked Internet platform. This was accomplished by incorporating existing data from the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) into the CMAPI program in a static environment. The other …

An Intelligent User Interface To Support Air Force Weather Product Generation And Automated Metrics, Darryl N. Leon

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force pilots require dependable weather reports so they may avoid unsafe flying conditions. In order to better gauge the accuracy of its weather products, Air Force Weather has established the requirement for an Air Force-wide automated weather metrics program. Under the guidelines for this program, forecasts will automatically be compared to observed weather to determine their accuracy. Statistics will be collected in the hopes of determining forecast error trends that can be corrected through education and training. In order for the statistical data produced by such a program to draw reliable conclusions about forecast accuracy, however, the correct format …