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Droughtscape, Spring 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2021

Climate Projections For Western Australia, Department Of Primary Industries And Regional Development, Western Australia

Climate science factsheets

Current climate model projections for Western Australia (WA) indicate that the average annual temperature will increase by 1.1–2.7°C in a medium-emission scenario, and 2.6–5.1°C in a high-emission scenario by the end of the century. Annual rainfall in the south-west is projected to decline by 6% by 2030 and 12% by 2100 (median values) for a medium-emission scenario, and by 5% and 18%, respectively (median values) for a high-emission scenario. In the northern and central parts of WA, annual rainfall remains relatively unchanged. The climate of WA varies annually, the future projection variation is not within the historical variation.

Heterogeneous Co2And Ch4Content Of Glacial Meltwater From The Greenland Ice Sheet And Implications For Subglacial Carbon Processes, Andrea J. Pain, Jonathan B. Martin, Ellen E. Martin, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Shaily Rahman

Faculty Publications

Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased freshwater delivery to the Arctic Ocean and amplified the need to understand the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater on Arctic greenhouse gas budgets. We evaluate subglacial discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet for carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) concentrations and δ¹³C values and use geochemical models to evaluate subglacial CH₄ and CO₂ sources and sinks. We compare discharge from southwest (a sub-catchment of the Isunnguata Glacier, sub-Isunnguata, and the Russell Glacier) and southern Greenland (Kiattut Sermiat). Meltwater CH₄ concentrations vary …

Stability Of Low Crested And Submerged Breakwaters: A Reanalysis And Model Development, Christopher P. Burgess

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Low-crested and submerged structures (LCS) play an integral part in the stabilization of shorelines for recreational purposes, yet there are a plethora of empirical models and gaps in the understanding of their stability and damage progression. The objectives were: i) to evaluate the present formulae, ii) explore variable importance, iii) formulate a stability model, iv) extend the current datasets and v) explore a new model for LCS. The literature points to an increasing understanding of the initiation of damage of LCS and recent exploration of the shear stress-induced erosion (van Rijn, 2019). Assessment of two existing models (Kramer, 2006 and …

Reconstructing Surface Water Carbonate Ion Concentration Changes In The Eastern Equatorial Pacific Across Glacial Transitions, Lenzie Gail Ward

OES Theses and Dissertations

Today, the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) plays a critical role in the global CO₂ budget as a major source of CO₂ to the atmosphere, but recent studies suggest the region may shift to a sink for atmospheric CO₂ under different climate states. Here, I focus on two transitional periods, the last deglaciation (25 kyr to present) and last glaciation (the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a-4 transition, 96 to 60 kyr), to investigate how the carbon system in the EEP responds to major climate changes. I measured B/Ca ratios in the planktic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides from core MV1014-17JC …

Understanding The Effect Of Internal Climate Variability On 20th Century Indian Ocean Sea Level: Results From Newly Reconstructed Sea Level Data, Praveen Kumar

OES Theses and Dissertations

Densely populated low-lying coastal zones of countries that border the Indian Ocean are at risk due to sea level rise. However, sea level change in the Indian Ocean is poorly understood primarily due to short and sparse tide gauge observations. Although satellite altimetry provides accurate basin-wide sea level measurements, trends computed from its relatively short (~27-year) data record are heavily influenced by interannual to multi-decadal variability. To accurately project future Indian Ocean sea level trends using altimeter data it is imperative that trends associated with fluctuating internal variability (interannual-decadal) be identified and extracted, which in turn requires long (~100-year) data. …

Institutional Stretching: How Moroccan Ngos Illuminate The Nexus Of Climate, Migration, Gender And Development, Shelby Mertens

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

The global migration crisis the world has experienced thus far is only the tip of the iceberg. As the earth’s temperature continues to warm and extreme weather conditions worsen, millions of people across the globe will be displaced, and women in particular will face more difficult challenges. What the climate migration literature fails to study is these longer-term impacts beyond sudden onset disasters. Governments and institutions will be forced to respond and adapt to the new reality resulting from the climate crisis. This research provides a case study of Morocco and, by using institutional ethnography, investigates how NGOs working in …

Investigating Decadal Changes Of Multiple Hydrological Products And Land-Cover Changes In The Mediterranean Region For 2009–2018, Wenzhao Li, Sachi Perera, Erik Linstead, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham El-Askary, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Land-cover change is a critical concern due to its climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic consequences. In this study, we used multiple variables including precipitation, vegetation index, surface soil moisture, and evapotranspiration obtained from different satellite sources to study their association with land-cover changes in the Mediterranean region. Both observational and modeling data were used for climatology and correlation analysis. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were used to extract surface soil moisture and evapotranspiration data. Intercomparing the results of FLDAS and GLDAS suggested that FLDAS data had better …

Investigating The Impact Of Meteoric Diagenesis On The Geochemistry Of Carbonate Eolianites, Eleuthera And Water Cay, The Bahamas, Graham S. Bonnot

LSU Master's Theses

The geochemical signatures imparted in major, minor, and trace elements, combined with light isotopes, suggest promising applications regarding the stabilization of meteorically altered limestone eolianites. Previous high-resolution studies have indicated that elements associated with carbonate diagenesis such as Mg and Sr can be valuable proxies for salinity and aragonite dissolution, respectively. In addition to testing these proxies, the analyses of several temperature-, diagenetic-, bioactive-, and redox-sensitive elements were evaluated using laser ablation inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to identify additional indicators during carbonate diagenesis. Two geochemical drivers of U were identified; (1) aragonite dissolution similar to Sr and (2) oxidation …

Exploring Viirs Continuity With Modis In An Expedited Capability For Monitoring Drought-Related Vegetation Conditions, Trenton D. Benedict, Jesslyn F. Brown, Stephen P. Boyte, Daniel M. Howard, Brian A. Fuchs, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Kirk A. Evenson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vegetation has been effectively monitored using remote sensing time-series vegetation index (VI) data for several decades. Drought monitoring has been a common application with algorithms tuned to capturing anomalous temporal and spatial vegetation patterns. Drought stress models, such as the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), often use VIs like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The EROS expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (eMODIS)-based, 7-day NDVI composites are integral to the VegDRI. As MODIS satellite platforms (Terra and Aqua) approach mission end, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) presents an alternate NDVI source, with daily collection, similar band passes, and …

Exploring Viirs Continuity With Modis In An Expedited Capability For Monitoring Drought-Related Vegetation Conditions, Trenton D. Benedict, Jesslyn F. Brown, Stephen P. Boyte, Daniel M. Howard, Brian A. Fuchs, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Kirk A. Evenson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vegetation has been effectively monitored using remote sensing time-series vegetation index (VI) data for several decades. Drought monitoring has been a common application with algorithms tuned to capturing anomalous temporal and spatial vegetation patterns. Drought stress models, such as the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), often use VIs like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The EROS expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (eMODIS)-based, 7-day NDVI composites are integral to the VegDRI. As MODIS satellite platforms (Terra and Aqua) approach mission end, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) presents an alternate NDVI source, with daily collection, similar band passes, and …

Agenda- Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum, Ben Mcfarlane, Wie Yusuf

March 19, 2021: Updates from Hampton Roads: Moving the Needle on Resilience

Agenda for the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum on March 19, 2021 via Virtual Forum.

• Opening Remarks and Introductions: Ben McFarlane, Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Dr. Wie Yusuf, Old Dominion University and Virginia Sea Grant
• Dr. Jessica Whitehead, ODU Institute for Coastal Adaptation and Resilience (ICAR): Update on ODU ICAR
• Terry O’Neill, City of Hampton: Hampton’s Experience with Environmental Impact Bonds
• Dr. Joshua Behr, Virginia Modeling, Analysis, and Simulation Center, ODU: Recover Hampton Roads
• Dr. Daniel Richards, ODU and Ashley Gordon, Hampton Roads Planning District: Commission Flood Insurance Outreach: Calculating and Communicating Risk 11:20 AM Ben McFarlane, …

Representing Methane Emissions From Wet Tropical Forest Soils Using Microbial Functional Groups Constrained By Soil Diffusivity, Debjani Sihi, Xiaofeng Xu, Mónica Salazar Ortiz, Christine S. O'Connell, Whendee L. Silver, Carla López-Lloreda, Julia M. Brenner, Ryan K. Quinn, Jana R. Phillips, Brent D. Newman, Melanie A. Mayes

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Tropical ecosystems contribute significantly to global emissions of methane (CH₄), and landscape topography influences the rate of CH₄ emissions from wet tropical forest soils. However, extreme events such as drought can alter normal topographic patterns of emissions. Here we explain the dynamics of CH₄ emissions during normal and drought conditions across a catena in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. Valley soils served as the major source of CH₄ emissions in a normal precipitation year (2016), but drought recovery in 2015 resulted in dramatic pulses in CH₄ emissions from all topographic positions. Geochemical parameters …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: March 2021 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for March 2021. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Ecological Risk Assessment Of Managed Relocation As A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Aviv Karasov-Olson, Mark W. Schwartz, Julian D. Olden, Sarah Skikne, Jessica J. Hellmann, Sarah Allen, Christy Brigham, Danielle Buttke, David J. Lawrence, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Gregor W. Schuurman, Melissa Trammell, Cat Hawkins Hoffman

United States National Park Service: Publications

Executive Summary

Changing climate and introduced species are placing an increasing number of species at risk of extinction. Increasing extinction risk is increasing calls to protect species by relocating, or translocating, them to locations with more favorable biotic or climatic conditions. Managed relocation, or assisted migration, of species entails risks to both the conservation target organisms being moved as well as the recipient ecosystems into which they are moved.

Recognizing this risk, calls have been made for practitioners interested in considering a managed relocation project to engage in a serious risk assessment prior to advancing a project. We engaged a …

Comprehensive Record Of Volcanic Eruptions In The Holocene (11,000 Years) From The Wais Divide, Antarctica Ice Core, Jihong Cole-Dai, David G. Harris, Joshua A. Kennedy, Michael Sigl, Joseph R. Mcconnell, T. J. Fudge, Lei Geng, Olivia J. Maselli, Kendrick C. Taylor, Joseph M. Souney

Ice Core and Environmental Chemistry Lab Datasets and Publications

A comprehensive record (WHV2020) of explosive volcanic eruptions in the last 11,000 years is reconstructed from the West Antarctica Ice Sheet Divide deep ice core (WDC). The chronological list of 426 large volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere and the low latitudes during the Holocene are of the highest quality of all volcanic records from ice cores, owing to the high-resolution chemical measurement of the ice core and the exceptionally accurate WDC timescale. No apparent trend is found in the frequency (number of eruptions per millennium) of volcanic eruptions, and the number of eruptions in the most recent millennium (1,000–2,000 …

The Drought Monitor Comes Of Age, Brad Rippey, Brian Fuchs, David Simeral, Deborah J. Bathke, Richard R. Heim Jr., Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The 20th century featured immense scientific discoveries and advances. Astrophysics gained Einstein’s life-altering theory of relativity, opening the door to nuclear weaponry and the mind-bending Big Bang theory. The medical field achieved stunning success in suppressing or vanquishing a host of deadly diseases, including polio and smallpox. And through advances in computing technology, meteorological forecasting moved from back-of-the-envelope calculations to supercomputers. However, drought monitoring fell behind the curve of scientific advancement. Not until 1965, when the United States Department of Commerce published Wayne C. Palmer’s “Research Paper No. 45: Meteorological Drought,” was there even a complex mathematical definition of drought. …

Improving Airfield Pavement Degradation Prediction Skill With Local Climate And Traffic, Evan M. Fortney

Theses and Dissertations

Airfield pavements are a critical component of the global transportation network that provide a platform for national defense. Preventative and corrective maintenance activities are founded upon accurate expectations of degradation. The leading pavement management software creates degradation predictions from pavement groups using age as the IV and current state conditions as the DV. For this work, a framework is created and implemented that utilizes a PCR model to build upon accepted practices for degradation modeling to enhance and possibly augment future prediction capabilities. The model was applied to pairs of location and pavement family and reveals several findings: the selected …

Climate-Informed Prediction And Forecast Modeling Of Installation Total Energy Consumption, Scott C. Weiss

Theses and Dissertations

Climate variability is an external and stochastic factor that causes energy demand uncertainty. Energy managers can use climate-based models to understand future trends of energy demand and to adjust operations, policy, and budgets accordingly. This research focuses on 1) identifying how climate attributes impact energy use, 2) creating a historically informed statistical modeling framework to skillfully predict energy use, and 3) forecasting future changes to energy use and costs, using CMIP5 temperature projections, at the campus level. After synthesizing the existing breadth of research on climate-informed energy modeling, a skillful, unbiased, climate-informed total energy consumption prediction model is developed for …

2021 March - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Jessica Whitehead Named Joan P. Brock Endowed Executive Director For Old Dominion University’S Institute For Coastal Adaptation And Resilience (Icar), Sarah Huddle

News Items

No abstract provided.

The Biden Climate Plan, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

President Obama had an aggressive climate plan that included regulation of carbon emissions from power plants. Hillary Clinton would have continued with aggressive policies to slow and reverse global warming but was defeated by Donald Trump in 2016. President Trump sought to undo most of President Obama’s climate policies and pursued a fossil-fuel friendly energy and climate policy. The 2020 election of President Biden marks a resumption of ambitious policies to slow and ultimately reverse global warming. This newsletter identifies three major policies the Biden administration is expected to pursue and attempts to explain what policy implication might look like.

Diurnal Cycle Of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures Over Land At A Global Scale, Zahra Sharifnezhad, Hamid Norouzi, Satya Prakash, Reginald Blake, Reze Khanbilvard

Publications and Research

Satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers provide brightness temperature (TB) measurements in a large spectral range which includes a number of frequency channels and generally two polarizations: horizontal and vertical. These TBs are widely used to retrieve several atmospheric and surface variables and parameters such as precipitation, soil moisture, water vapor, air temperature profile, and land surface emissivity. Since TBs are measured at different microwave frequencies with various instruments and at various incidence angles, spatial resolutions, and radiometric characteristics, a mere direct integration of them from different microwave sensors would not necessarily provide consistency. However, when appropriately harmonized, they can provide a …

Estimated 2020 Co2 Emission Reductions In Virginia’S Transportation Sector From Covid-19, Eden E. Rakes, Pamela R. Grothe, Jeremy S. Hoffman

Virginia Journal of Science

The initial lockdown phase of the COVID-19 pandemic presented an unfortunate opportunity to observe how abrupt, large-scale changes in traffic volume can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study explores how carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from Virginia’s transportation sector may have been affected by the changes in activity stemming from COVID-19 to inform more carbon-neutral policies as the state recovers from the economic downfall. Emission savings were calculated by multiplying the percent change from 2019 to 2020 in traffic volume from the Virginia Department of Transportation with the business-as-usual 2020 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimate of CO₂ emissions …

Flash Drought Onset Over The Contiguous United States: Sensitivity Of Inventories And Trends To Quantitative Definitions, Mahmoud Osman, Bejamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, Jordan I. Christian, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The term “flash drought” is frequently invoked to describe droughts that develop rapidly over a relatively short timescale. Despite extensive and growing research on flash drought processes, predictability, and trends, there is still no standard quantitative definition that encompasses all flash drought characteristics and pathways. Instead, diverse definitions have been proposed, supporting wide-ranging studies of flash drought but creating the potential for confusion as to what the term means and how to characterize it. Use of different definitions might also lead to different conclusions regarding flash drought frequency, predictability, and trends under climate change. In this study, we compared five …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: February 2021 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for February 2021. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

2021 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Implications Of Covid-19 On Progress In The Un Conventions On Biodiversity And Climate Change, Andrea Monica D. Ortiz, Alaya M. De Leon, Justine Nicole V. Torres, Cecilia Therese T. Guiao, Antonio Gabriel M. La Viña

Environmental Science Faculty Publications

2020 was to be a landmark year for setting targets to stop biodiversity loss and prevent dangerous climate change. However, COVID-19 has caused delays to the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the 26th COP of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Negotiations on the Global Biodiversity Framework and the second submission of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement were due to take place at these COPs. There is uncertainty as to how the COVID-19 disruption will affect the negotiations, whether parties will pursue more ambitious actions or take a …

Coastal Watershed Monitoring And Management: Geomorphology, Geochemistry, And Hydrologic Modeling Of Los Peñasquitos Creek, Ca, Ravleen Khalsa-Basra

Theses

Rivers in semi-arid climates are directly influenced by local geographic and hydrologic conditions and impacted by modifications to hydrology via urbanization. Changes can influence erosion, morphology, habitat sustainability, and watershed health. In highly urbanized southern California coastal regions, these rare open spaces provide vital ecosystem services. Los Peñasquitos Creek in San Diego County is one such watershed. Using stream surveying and laboratory methods we quantified channel characteristics, grain size distribution, total metal concentration [M], organic carbon (%OC), and phosphate to longitudinally characterize the creek for improved management. Results identified three distinct reaches in the watershed (upper, middle, lower). Downstream, depth …

Atlantic Sailfish (Istiophorus Albicans) Distribution Off The East Coast Of Florida From 2003 To 2018 In Response To Sea Surface Temperature, Meredith M. Pratt

Mako: NSU Undergraduate Student Journal

The Atlantic sailfish (Istiophorus albicans) ranges from 40°N to 40°S in the Western Atlantic Ocean and has great economic and recreational value for sport fishers. Off the east coast of Florida, recreational fishing boats often target this species due to its size, speed and strength. This project aimed to determine the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the distribution of Atlantic sailfish caught and released over a fifteen-year period (2003 to 2018). Tagging information was collected from The Billfish Foundation and NOAA who have the most extensive programs for billfish. Using the time and location of each …