Climate Commons^™

Discovering Associations Between Climatic And Oceanic Parameters To Monitor Drought In Nebraska Using Data-Mining Techniques, Tsegaye Tadesse, Donald A. Wilhite, Michael J. Hayes, Steve Goddard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a complex natural hazard that is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters. Improving our understanding of the relationships between these parameters is necessary to reduce the impacts of drought. Data mining is a recently developed technique that can be used to interact with large databases and assist in the discovery of associations between drought and oceanic data by extracting information from massive and multiple data archives. In this study, a new data-mining algorithm [i.e., Minimal Occurrences With Constraints and Time Lags (MOWCATL)] has been used to identify the relationships between oceanic parameters and drought indices. Rather …

An Agricultural Drought Risk-Assessment Model For Corn And Soybeans, Hong Wu, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. Published by Wiley InterScience. Used by permis-sion.

An Operational Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Model For Nebraska, Usa, Hong Wu, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a common occurrence in Nebraska and agriculture is the primary economic sector affected. Because of repeated and widespread severe drought impacts, more emphasis on drought risk management is warranted. This study develops an agricultural drought risk assessment model using multivariate techniques. The model is specific to corn and soybeans and is able to assess real-time agricultural drought risk associated with crop yield losses at critical phenological stages prior to and during the growing season. The assessment results are presented in a Geographic Information System to provide a better visualization. This model provides information in a timely manner about …

Drought Monitoring Using Data Mining Techniques: A Case Study For Nebraska, Usa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Donald A. Wilhite, Sherri K. Harms, Michael J. Hayes, Steve Goddard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought has an impact on many aspects of society. To help decision makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve our understanding of the characteristics and relationships of atmospheric and oceanic parameters that cause drought. In this study, the use of data mining techniques is introduced to find associations between drought and several oceanic and climatic indices that could help users in making knowledgeable decisions about drought responses before the drought actually occurs. Data mining techniques enable users to search for hidden patterns and find association rules for target data sets such as drought episodes. These techniques …

Recent Advances In Drought Monitoring, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes, Donald A. Wilhite, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent widespread, severe, and long-lasting droughts across North America have heightened awareness of and interest in how to better monitor drought and its impacts. Since its inception in 1999, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) have partnered to produce the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droug ht.unl.edu/m onitor/), a comprehensive drought assessment product based on a simple 5- category severity classification. On the heels of its widespread acceptance and usage, the NCDC, CPC, USDA, NDMC and scientists from Canada and Mexico have worked …

A Geospatial Decision Support System For Drought Risk Management, Steve Goddard, Jitender Deogun, Sherri K. Harms, Michael J. Hayes, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Stephen Reichenbach, Peter Revesz, W. J. Waltman, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought affects virtually all regions of the world and results in significant economic, social, and environmental impacts. The Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates annual drought-related losses in the United States at $6-8 billion, which is more than any other natural hazard. Congress enacted the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000 to encourage the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Risk Management Agency (RMA) and farmers to be more proactive in managing drought risk. Through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Digital Government program, the USDA RMA is working with the University of Nebraska−Lincoln Computer Science and Engineering (CSE) Department, National Drought …

Beginning A New Era Of Drought Monitoring Across North America, Jay Lawrimore, Richard R. Heim Jr., Mark D. Svoboda, Val Swail, Phil J. Englehart

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought experts from the United States, Canada, and Mexico met at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, for a three-day workshop in late April 2002 to discuss the United States Drought Monitor program and to develop a plan for initiating a new program of drought monitoring for North America. Since its inception in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (DM) has been extremely successful in assessing and communicating the state of drought in the United States on a weekly basis. This success, and the recognition that an ongoing comprehensive and integrated drought assessment was needed throughout all three …

Three Years And Counting: What’S New With The Drought Monitor, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes, Rich J. Tinker

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Operational since late summer 1999, the Drought Monitor (http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/) has refused to remain static. This unique weekly product attempts to make an assessment of current drought conditions in the contiguous United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Four entities now share in authoring the map: the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
The Drought Monitor effort has led to the development of new products and has reinforced the need for improvement and support of existing climate networks critical to monitoring our nation’s climate. One of …

The Drought Monitor, Mark D. Svoboda, Doug Lecomte, Mike Hayes, Richard Heim, Karin Gleason, Jim Angel, Brad Rippey, Rich Tinker, Mike Palecki, David Stooksbury, David Miskus, Scott Stephens

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is a need for improved drought monitoring and assessment methods in the United States. Drought is the most costly natural disaster [Federal Emergency Management Agancy (FEMA 1995; Wilhite 2000)], but it is often neglected by developers of assessment and forecast products. Drought is more nebulous than other disasters and does not lend itself to traditional assessments or forecast methods. Its relatively slow onset and the complexity of its impacts are reasons for the new assessment methodology. Improvements in drought monitoring and forecasting techniques will allow for better preparation, lead to better management practices, and reduce the vulnerability of society …

Assessing Vulnerability To Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study, Olga V. Wilhelmi, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. …

Spatial Representation Of Agroclimatology In A Study Of Agricultural Drought, Olga V. Wilhelmi, Kenneth Hubbard, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Agricultural drought is the leading cause for crop failure throughout the world. In the USA, significant impacts of recent droughts on agricultural production indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. This paper presents a methodology for spatial representation of the agroclimatic component of agricultural drought vulnerability. This methodology was developed as a part of an integrated assessment of drought vulnerability. For the spatial analysis, the state of Nebraska was selected as a study area because of the considerable variation in climatology, soil characteristics, land use, and cropping patterns. The underlying approach assumes that the best spatial characterization of …

Monitoring The 1996 Drought Using The Standardized Precipitation Index, Michael J. Hayes, Mark D. Svoboda, Donald A. Wilhite, Olga V. Vanyarkho

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts are difficult to detect and monitor. Drought indices, most commonly the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), have been used with limited success as operational drought monitoring tools and triggers for policy responses. Recently, a new index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), was developed to improve drought detection and monitoring capabilities. The SPI has several characteristics that are an improvement over previous indices, including its simplicity and temporal flexibility, that allow its application for water resources on all timescales. In this article, the 1996 drought in the southern plains and southwestern United States is examined using the SPI. A series …

How To Reduce Drought Risk, Cody Knutson, Mike Hayes, Tom Phillips

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This guide describes a practical step-by-step process for identifying actions that can be taken to reduce potential drought-related impacts before a drought occurs. Step 1 begins with making sure that the right people are brought together and supplied with adequate data to make informed and equitable decisions during the process. Steps 2 and 3 narrow the focus of the study by identifying high priority drought-related impacts that are relevant to the user’s location or activity. Step 4 demonstrates that in order to reduce the potential for the identified impacts to occur in the future, it is necessary to understand the …

Chapter 2 Climate, Donald A. Wilhite, Kenneth G. Hubbard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The broad climatic patterns of the Sand Hills region are also characteristic of the central Great Plains environment. The spatial and temporal patterns of these climatic variables have a significant effect on the natural resources of the region.

Relating United States Crop Land Use To Natural Resources And Climate Change, K. G. Hubbard, F. J. Flores-Mendoza

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Crop production depends not only on the yield but also on the area harvested. The yield response to climate change has been widely examined, but the sensitivity of crop land use to hypothetical climate change has not been examined directly. Crop land-use regression models for estimating crop area indices (CAIs) - the percent of land used for corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum production - are presented. Inputs to the models include available water-holding capacity of the soil, percent of land available for rain-fed agricultural production, annual precipitation, and annual temperature. The total variance of CAI explained by the models ranged …

The Potential Effects Of Climate Change On Summer Season Dairy Cattle Milk Production And Reproduction, Peggy L. Klinedinst, Donald A. Wilhite, G. Leroy Hahn, Kenneth G. Hubbard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The potential direct effects of possible global warming on summer season dairy production and re-production were evaluated for the United States and Europe. Algorithms used for milk production and conception rate were previously developed and validated. Three widely known global circulation models (GISS, GFDL, and UKMO) were used to represent possible scenarios of future climate. Milk production and conception rate declines were highest under the UKMO model scenario and lowest under the GISS model scenario. Predicted declines for the GCM scenarios are generally higher than either “l year in 10” probability-based declines or declines based on the abnormally hot summer …

Drought Management: The Role Of Near- Real Time Weather Data, Donald A. Wilhite, Kenneth G. Hubbard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The ability to collect weather data in near-real time has improved because of technological advances, enabling weather data users to obtain more weather data over wider areas, and in a more timely fashion. The number of near-real time climate networks is increasing as new applications are found for climate data. More than fifteen states in the United States have established automated weather station networks. This paper presents an overview of recent developments in automated weather data collection in the United States and gives a detailed description of the network in Nebraska.

Near-real time weather data has many applications in agricultural …

Cropstatus--A Computer Program To Assess The Effects Of Seasonal Weather Changes On Nebraska's Agriculture, R. E. Neild, Donald A. Wilhite, K. G. Hubbard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

CROPSTATUS is a series of programs residing in Nebraska's AGNET system using daily weather data to assess seasonal changes in crops, livestock, and other agricultural conditions. Assessments are based on parameters developed from accumulations of current daily temperature and precipitation data collected from a network of synoptic, climate, and automated micrometeorological stations in Nebraska in comparison with daily normals. The daily normals were derived from monthly summaries using multiple regression models to compute daily values as a function of Julian day numbers. Crop phenology models based on growing degree days were used to monitor and forecast the progress of different …

Improving Projected Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates Using National Weather Service Forecasts, Steven J. Meyer, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In a recent survey conducted by the University of Nebraska's Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology of Agricultural Network (AGNET) users, the results of potential evapotranspiration (ET_p) projections (calculated using the Blaney-Criddle approach, which employs "normal" climatic data to project ET_p estimates up to three days into the future) were labeled "unrealistic." To improve these projections, National Weather Service (NWS) forecast variables were used as input into the Blaney-Criddle and Penman equations. ET_p projections calculated according to the Penman equation, with data measured by automated weather stations as input, were assumed to represent the "best" …

The Nebraska Agricultural Climate Situation Committee, R. E. Neild, K. G. Hubbard, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Nebraska Agricultural Climate Situation Committee consisting of an interdisciplinary group of extension specialists provides up-to-date information and advice on seasonal changes in crop/ weather conditions. The committee meets each Monday during the growing season to review:

1. Maps and tabular data developed by a computer program CIS /Crop Weather Information System/ that is linked to a network of weather stations and computer terminals in county agent offices.

2. Insect, plant disease and weed surveys.

3. Weekly weather and crop reports from the State/Federal System.

4. Weather outlooks from the National Weather Service.

5. Climate probabilities.

Situation reports and advisories …

Government Response To Drought In The United States: With Particular Reference To The Great Plains, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought relief has become an expected response of the federal government to periods of widespread drought in the United States. A wide range of emergency, short-term and long-term drought programs were formulated to deal with the extreme drought of the 1930's. By 1977 there were 40 separate programs administered by 16 different federal agencies. This paper traces the development of federal drought relief bureaucracy, including drought designation criteria and procedures.

Two obvious deficiencies of past drought relief efforts in the United States are noted. First, drought relief organizations and programs have been hastily assembled during periods of crisis. This has …

Changing Fields: Agricultural Land Use Changes In Nebraska 1925-1974, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The series of graphs and maps which follow illustrate agricultural land use changes in Nebraska from 1925 to 1974. With these graphs and maps, the major agronomic crops of corn (dryland and irrigated), wheat, sorghum and soybeans are analyzed. The purpose of this analysis is to provide a pictorial history of Nebraska's ever-changing cropping system and, hopefully, to stimulate ideas and discussion with regard to trends and future directions. The Nebraska Water Resources Center is deeply interested in both the past and the future of Nebraska's agriculture because of the demands which agriculture places on the state's water resources. An …

Turbulence Spectra Above A Vegetated Surface Under Conditions Of Sensible Heat Advection, Raymond P. Motha, Shashi B. Verma, Norman J. Rosenberg

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Spectra of vertical and horizontal velocity, air temperature and humidity fluctuations were analyzed from measurements made over a well-watered alfalfa crop under conditions of sensible heat advection. Vertical velocity and air temperature spectra as well as cospectra of momentum, sensible heat and water vapor were found to be dependent on atmospheric thermal stratification. These spectra and cospectra were shifted toward higher frequencies under advective as compared to lapse conditions. These results indicate that the predominant eddy sizes are relatively smaller under advective conditions. Humidity spectra, on the other hand, were independent of daytime thermal stratification conditions but were influenced by …

Extreme Evapotranspiration By Irrigated Alfalfa: A Consequence Of The 1976 Midwestern Drought, Norman J. Rosenberg, Shashi B. Verma

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The rate of evapotranspiration by irrigated alfalfa at Mead, NE (41°09'Nj 96°30'W, elevation 354 m) reached record levels in 1976. Evapotranspiration was measured with precision weighing lysimeters in a field 1.9 ha in size. Evapotranspiration ranged during the growing season from 4.75 to 14.22 mm day^-l and exceeded 10 mm day^-I on one-third of the days studied. On each day of study the ratio of latent heat flux density (LE) to the sum of the net radiation and soil heat flux densities (Rn+S) was such that LE/ (Rn+S) > 1, indicating the occurrence of significant …