Climate Commons^™

Umphlett Qci Sept 2015, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalie

Streamflow

Heavy Rains Continued

Positive and Negative Impacts to Agriculture

Persistent Smoke from Wildfires

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Participatory Research Workshop On Seasonal Prediction Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Deborah Bathke, Nicole Wall, Jacob Petr, Tonya Haigh

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Sixty participants, including experts from seven countries from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and project coinvestigators from the United States, met to discuss seasonal prediction of hydroclimatic extremes across the GHA, engage decision-makers in the assessment of information requirements, and use feedback to orient prediction models to address user needs. Perceptions of current climate change impacts in the GHA were assessed using pre- and postworkshop surveys. Participatory research was conducted through small group discussions on water, agriculture, impacts, and data sharing.

Retrieval Of Aerosol Microphysical Properties From Aeronet Photopolarimetric Measurements, Xiaoguang Xu

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Atmospheric aerosols play an important role in earth climate by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation, and indirectly through altering the cloud formation, life- time, and radiative properties. However, accurate quantification of these effects is in no small part hindered by our limited knowledge about the particle size distribution (PSD) and refractive index, the aerosol microphysical properties essentially pertain to aerosol optical and cloud-forming properties. The research goal of this thesis is to obtain the aerosol microphysical properties of both fine and coarse modes from the polarimetric solar radiation measured by the SunPhotometer of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). …

Facilitating The Use Of Drought Early Warning Information Through Interactions With Agricultural Stakeholders, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Shafer, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jeffrey Basara

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape, Summer 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

New Drought Risk Management Research Center

Second quarter 2015 climate summary

Second quarter 2015 impacts summary

Caribbean region an innovator in drought early warning

Wind River Reservation tribes move toward drought planning

Ranchers, U.S. Forest Service, University of Arizona co-develop drought plans

Summer blockbuster from CoCoRaHS: Assessing Drought in the U.S

Western states drought coordinators meet

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- July 2015, Martha Shulski, Natalie Umphlett, Bill Sorensen, E. Hunt, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Visit from Office of Science and Technology Policy...........2

Partnership spotlight.............2

AWDN information.................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................3

Product highlight....................4

Research highlight..................4

Outreach/engagement.........5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Umphlett Qci June 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Water Supplies Recovering

Heavy Rains Cause Flooding

Agriculture Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Springtime Melt Onset On Arctic Sea Ice From Satellite Observations And Related Atmospheric Conditions, Angela C. Bliss

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The timing of snowmelt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice derived from passive microwave satellite data is examined by determining the melting area (in km²) on a daily basis for the spring and summer melt season months over the 1979 – 2012 data record. The date of MO on Arctic sea ice has important implications for the amount of total solar energy absorbed by the ice-ocean system in a given year. Increasingly early mean MO dates have been recorded over the 34-year data record as evidenced by statistically significant trends of 6.6 days decade^-1 over the extent …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2015, Martha Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Partnership spotlight.............2

AWDN information.................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................3

Product highlight....................4

Research highlight..................4

Outreach events......................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Drougthscape, Spring 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

South Plains ranch workshops 3

First quarter drought summary

First quarter impacts summary

Gary’s favorite pond, D1-4

NDMC’s Haigh leads U2U pubs

SW Montana watersheds convene

Wind River monitors drought

Morocco’s new drought index

Northeast Brazil drought monitoring

EU’s drought initiative

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

How Colorado tourism coped in 2012

Umphlett Qci March 2015, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Recreation and Tourism

Forestry

Drought Impacts Continue

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Hydroclimatic Shifts In Northeast Thailand During The Last Two Millennia — The Record Of Lake Pa Kho, Sakonvan Chawchai, Akkaneewut Chabangborn, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Minna Väliranta, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Maarten Blaauw, Paul J. Reimer, Paul J. Kusic, Ludvig Löwemark, Barbara Wohlfarth

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

The Southeast Asian mainland is located in the central path of the Asian summer monsoon, a region where paleoclimatic data are still sparse. Here we present a multi-proxy (TOC, C/N, δ13C, biogenic silica, and XRF elemental data) study of a 1.5 m sediment/peat sequence from Lake Pa Kho, northeast Thailand, which is supported by 20 AMS 14C ages. Hydroclimatic reconstructions for Pa Kho suggest a strengthened summer monsoon between BC 170–AD 370, AD 800–960, and after AD 1450; and a weakening of the summer monsoon between AD 370–800, and AD 1300–1450. Increased run-off and a higher nutrient supply after AD …

Mapping The Decision Points And Climate Information Use Of Agricultural Producers Across The U.S. Corn Belt, Tonya Haigh, Eugene S. Takle, Jeffrey Andresen, Melissa Widhalm, J. Stuart Carlton, Jim Angel

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The usefulness of climate information for agricultural risk management hinges on its availability and relevance to the producer when climate-sensitive decisions are being made. Climate information providers are challenged with the task of balancing forecast availability and lead time with acceptable forecast skill, which requires an improved understanding of the timing of agricultural decision making. Achieving a useful balance may also require an expansion of inquiry to include use of non-forecast climate information (i.e. historical climate information) in agricultural decision making. Decision calendars have proven valuable for identifying opportunities for using different types of climate information. The extent to which …

Global Warming And Population Responses Among Great Plains Birds, Paul A. Johnsgard

Zea E-Books Collection

Based on an analysis of 47 years (1967–2014) of Audubon Christmas Bird Counts (CBC), evidence for population changes and shifts in early winter (late December) ranges of nearly 150 species of birds in the Great Plains states is summarized, a region defined as including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. The rationale for this study had its origins in Terry Root’s 1988 Atlas of North American Wintering Birds. Root’s landmark study provided a baseline for evaluating the nationwide winter distributions of 253 North American birds in the mid-20th century, using data from the National Audubon Society’s …

Estimation Of Daily Air Temperature Based On Modis Land Surface Temperature Products Over The Corn Belt In The Us, Linglin Zeng, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jie Shan, Michael J. Hayes, Deren Li, Daxiang Xiang

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Air temperature (Ta) is a key input in a wide range of agroclimatic applications. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ts (Land Surface Temperature (LST)) products are widely used to estimate daily Ta. However, only daytime LST (Ts-day) or nighttime LST (Ts-night) data have been used to estimate Tmax/Tmin (daily maximum or minimum air temperature), respectively. The relationship between Tmax and Ts-night, and the one between Tmin and Ts-day has not been studied. In this study, both the ability of Ts-night data to estimate Tmax and the ability of Ts-day data to estimate Tmin were tested and studied in the Corn …

Estimation Of Daily Air Temperature Based On Modis Land Surface Temperature Products Over The Corn Belt In The Us, Linglin Zeng, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jie Shan, Michael Hayes, Deren Li, Daxiang Xiang

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Air temperature (Ta) is a key input in a wide range of agroclimatic applications. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ts (Land Surface Temperature (LST)) products are widely used to estimate daily Ta. However, only daytime LST (Ts-day) or nighttime LST (Ts-night) data have been used to estimate Tmax/Tmin (daily maximum or minimum air temperature), respectively. The relationship between Tmax and Ts-night, and the one between Tmin and Ts-day has not been studied. In this study, both the ability of Ts-night data to estimate Tmax and the ability of Ts-day data to estimate Tmin were tested and studied in the Corn …

Multi-Scale Evaluation Of Light Use Efficiency In Modis Gross Primary Productivity For Croplands In The Midwestern United States, Qinchuan Xin, Mark Broich, Andrew E. Suyker, Le Yu, Peng Gong

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Satellite remote sensing provides continuous observations of land surfaces, thereby offering opportunities for large-scale monitoring of terrestrial productivity. Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) have been widely used in satellite-based studies to simulate carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and ecosystems. However, model parameterization of the maximum light use efficiency (ε*_GPP) varies considerably for croplands in agricultural studies at different scales. In this study, we evaluate cropland ε*_GPP in the MODIS Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) model (MOD17) using in situ measurements and inventory datasets across the Midwestern US. The site-scale calibration using 28 site-years tower measurements derives ε*_GPP values …

Drougthscape, Winter 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Central U.S. 2012 report

October-December drought summary

2014 drought summary

Caribbean capacity building

Drought impacts in 2014

California timeline 2014

UC Davis ranching workshop

NASA SMAP data

Global drought info system

Community Capitals

Evaluation and assessment

Indicator-impact research

NDMC on YouTube

From Too Much To Too Little: How The Central U.S. Drought Of 2012 Evolved Out Of One Of The Most Devastating Floods On Record In 2011, Brian Fuchs, Deborah Wood, Dee Ebbeka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Introduction: Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center

Regional Drought Perspective: Natalie A. Umphlett, High Plains Regional Climate Center, Michael S. Timlin, Midwest Regional Climate Center, Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center

State Drought Perspectives — Colorado: Wendy Ryan and Nolan Doesken, Colorado Climate Center • Illinois: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey • Indiana: Olivia Kellner, Indiana State Climate Office • Iowa: Harry J. Hillaker, Iowa Dept. of Agriculture & Land Stewardship • Kansas: Mary Knapp and Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University • Kentucky: Stu Foster, Kentucky State Climate Office • Michigan: Jeff Andresen and Aaron Pollyea, Michigan State University …

A Fast Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Simulator For Cloudy Atmospheres, Chao Liu, Ping Yang, Steven Platnick, Kerry G. Meyer, Chenxi Wang, Shouguo Ding

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

A fast instrument simulator is developed to simulate the observations made in cloudy atmospheres by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The correlated k distribution technique is used to compute the transmissivities associated with absorbing atmospheric gases. The bulk scattering properties of ice clouds are based on the ice model used for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 ice cloud products, and those ofwater clouds are computedwith the Lorenz-Mie theory. Two fast radiative transfer models based on precomputed ice cloud look-up tables are used for the VIIRS solar and infrared channels. The accuracy and efficiency of the fast …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2015, Martha Shulski, Natalie Umphlett, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the director........................................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

AWDN news...............................3

Marketing efforts.....................3

Climate services and information................................4

Product highlight....................5

Outreach events and research highlights.................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

The Gravity Environment Of Zhouqu Debris Flow Of August 2010 And Its Implication For Future Recurrence, Diandong Ren, Lance M. Leslie, Xinyi Shen, Yang Hong, Qingyun Duan, Rezaul Mahmood, Yun Li, Gang Huang, Weidong Guo, Mervyn J. Lynch

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This study investigates the geological background of the August 7-8, 2010 Zhouqu debris flows in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, and possible future occurrence of such hazards in the peri-Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. Debris flows are a more predictable type of landslide because of its strong correlation with extreme precipitation. However, two factors affecting the frequency and magnitude of debris flows: very fine scale precipitation and degree of fracture of bedrock, both defy direct observations. Annual mean Net Primary production (NPP) is used as a surrogate for regional precipitation with patchiness filtered out, and gravity satellite measured regional mass …

Development Of A Long-Term (1884-2006) Serially Complete Dataset Of U.S. Temperatures And Precipitation For Climate Services, Jinshing You, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Martha Shulski, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Serially complete climate datasets with no missing data are necessary for a diverse group of users working in many economic sectors. In this article we describe the procedures used to create a Serially Complete Data set (SCD) for the U.S. We include the selection criterion applied to potential SCD stations, the various procedural steps and the details applied to each step. A few observations that were not previously digitized were obtained from observers official paper reports. The methods used to estimate missing data are the Spatial Regression Test and the Inverse Distance Weighting technique. Using the criterion for selecting stations …

A Historical Perspective On Nebraska’S Variable And Changing Climate, Martha Shulski, William Baule, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Nebraska is situated at the intersection of the northern and southern Great Plains, exhibiting a dramatic longitudinal gradient for precipitation and humidity, and benefiting from groundwater resources. The continental climate is highly variable temporally both for temperature and precipitation. Our assessment of long-term meteorological observations shows that over the last century the annual average temperature in Nebraska has warmed approximately 0.6°C, which is similar to the increase in the global average temperature over the same time period. Furthermore, we found minimum temperatures have warmed more than maximum temperatures, and winter and spring show the strongest warming. We found no significant …

New Atlas Features Corn Belt Farmers' Perspectives On Agriculture And Climate, John Tyndall, J. Gordon Arbuckle, Tonya Haigh, Cody L. Knutson, Lois Wright Morton, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Farmer Perspectives on Agriculture and Weather Variability in the Corn Belt: A Statistical Atlas is a new publication available online at . The atlas includes maps and tables that make it easy for readers to gauge farmer perspectives within the US Corn Belt. Topics covered include farmer beliefs about climate change, attitudes toward actions in response to increased weather variability, risk perceptions, and experiences with weather extremes. This region-specific information on farmers' climate change and risk beliefs is designed to help Extension personnel tailor the climate adaptation and education programming they offer in their region.

The Implications Of Climate Change For Nebraska: Summary Report Of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions (September-October 2015), Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly Morrow

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Introduction ... iv

Roundtable Reports: Overview ... iv

Rural Nebraskans Poll: Summary of Key Outcomes on Climate Change ... vi

Summary of Roundtable Discussions ... 1

Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems and Wildlife in Nebraska ... 1

Implications of Climate Change on Human Health in Nebraska ... 11

Implications of Climate Change on Nebraska’s Forests and Fire ... 21

Implications of Climate Change on Nebraska’s Agriculture, Food and Water ... 27

Implications of Climate Change on Energy Availability, Use and Management in Nebraska ... 31

Climate Change in Nebraska: What Does it Mean for our Faith Communities? …

On Underestimation Of Global Vulnerability To Tree Mortality And Forest Die-Off From Hotter Drought In The Anthropocene, Craig D. Allen, David D. Breshears, Nate G. Mcdowell

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—‘‘hotter drought’’, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2014, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Agriculture

Horticulture

Recreation and Tourism

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Agricultural Advisors As Climate Information Intermediaries: Exploring Differences In Capacity To Communicate Climate, Tonya Haigh, Lois Wright Morton, Maria Carmen Lemos, Cody Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Yun Jia Lo, Jim Angel

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Although agricultural production faces chronic stress associated with extreme precipitation events, high temperatures, drought, and shifts in climate conditions, adoption of climate information into agricultural decision making has been relatively limited. Agricultural advisors have been shown to play important roles as information intermediaries between scientists and farmers, brokering, translating, and adding value to agronomic and economic information of use in agricultural management decision making. Yet little is known about the readiness of different types of agricultural advisors to use weather and climate information to help their clients manage risk under increasing climate uncertainty. More than 1700 agricultural advisors in four …

Reply To ‘Co2 Emissions From Crop Residue-Derived Biofuels’, Adam Liska, Haishun Yang, Matthew P. Pelton, Andrew E. Suyker

Adam Liska Papers

The soil organic carbon (SOC) model that we used was parameterized with data from arable land under normal farming conditions in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia, but the equation is insensitive to changes in tillage, soil texture and moisture. The model has reasonable accuracy, however, in predicting changes in SOC, residue remaining and CO₂ emissions from initial SOC, carbon inputs from residue, and daily temperature; the shoot-to-root ratio used in the geospatial simulation was 0.29 (that is, root carbon is 29% of total aboveground carbon), which did not underestimate carbon input to soil (Supplementary Figure 2 in Ref. …