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Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

The Irreversible Momentum Of Clean Energy, Barack Obama

United States Department of Energy: Publications

The release of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to human activity is increasing global average surface air temperatures, disrupting weather patterns, and acidifying the ocean. Left unchecked, the continued growth of GHG emissions could cause global average temperatures to increase by another 4°C or more by 2100 and by 1.5 to 2 times as much in many midcontinent and far northern locations. Although our understanding of the impacts of climate change is increasingly and disturbingly clear, there is still debate about the proper course for U.S. policy—a debate that is very much on display …

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Changes In Arctic Climate And Central U.S. Weather Patterns Is There A Link?, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly C. Morrow, Martha Shulski

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture, decreased corn yields, increasing extreme precipitation events—these are some of the weather effects currently observed in the central United States that might well have their origin in the rapidly warming Arctic. These and other implications of Arctic warming were among the topics discussed at a fall 2015 workshop, Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S (Wilhite and Morrow 2016).

The United States assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council in April 2015, making the workshop topic timely. Given the importance of the Midwest and Great Plains region as a …

Evaluation Of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates And Application To Monitor Meteorological Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Influence Of Land Cover Type And The Reliability Of Selected Land Surface Models: A Comparison Of Wrf Version 3.6 Coupled To Clm Version 4.0, Noah-Mp, And The Bucket Hydrology, Andrew J. Kalin

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In this study, the validity of 3 LSMs (Community Land Model version 4.0, Noah-MP and the Budyko Bucket Hydrology model [henceforth referred to as ‘Bucket model’]) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF3.6), was examined in an effort to show the associated strengths and weaknesses of each LSM. This objective was completed by first, developing expected results based on a simple surface energy budget calculation, and by later comparing model output to Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data, which serve as gridded observed values of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation. Model output …

Managing Drought Risk In A Changing Climate, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is an increasing concern worldwide regarding the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are based largely on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes of the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. More effective drought management requires a shift in the paradigm from drought response to a drought risk management approach.

Using Climate Information For Drought Planning, Taryn Finnessey, Michael Hayes, Jeff Lukas, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historically, drought has been responded to rather than prepared for, yet studies have illustrated that proactive investment in drought risk management reduces impacts and overall response costs. One key element of preparedness is the use of sufficient climate information for monitoring, forecasting, and tracking long-term trends. In the face of a changing climate and increasing variability, these types of data are even more critical for planning and overall resiliency. The systematic use of these data to inform the drought planning component of drought risk management is a relatively recent development. Actionable science has direct applicability for planning and decision-making, and …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- October 2016, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlight....................3

Partnership spotlight.............3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Regional news..........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Drought In A Human-Modified World: Reframing Drought Definitions, Understanding, And Analysis Approaches, Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark4, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark D. Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Henny A. J. Van Lanen

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Streamflow Conditions

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

Variations In Satellite Derived Sea Ice And Snow Coverage In The Arctic, Haylie N. Mikulak

UCARE: Research Products

The work is an investigation on the variations of satellite derived sea ice and snow cover extents in the Arctic region from 1979-2012. The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Hemisphere Snow and Ice Earth System Data Record is examined in order to find variations of Northern Hemispheric sea ice and snow cover extents and impacts each extent may have not only on one another as well as the changing atmospheric conditions over the study period. Extent patterns and extreme circumstances defined by this study are identified in order for future studies to examine …