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The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2019, Natalie Umphlett, Rezaul Mamood, Warren Pettee, Paul Flanagan, Bill Sorensen, Jamie Lahowetz, Emily Brown, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Climate4Cities.......................2-3

Product highlight....................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

THREDDS workshop...............5

AASC webinar...........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape, Spring 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Wet and cool conditions bring drought relief to the West

Notable numbers from Q1

Drought impact summary, 1st quarter 2019

New research examines drought effects on state recreation areas

At Ethiopian space science workshop, NDMC climatologist sees promise in preparing for drought

U.S.- affiliated Pacific Islands now part of U.S. Drought Monitor

Water conservation tips for drought, flood and other disasters

Upcoming events

Umphlett Qci March 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Plains Snowpack

Agriculture

Energy

Transportation

Temperature

Precipitation

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2019, Natalie Umphlett, Rezaul Mamood, Warren Pettee, Gannon Rush, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Year in review............................2

Drought THIRA toolkit...........3

Product highlight....................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Other HPRCC news.................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

The Evolution, Propagation, And Spread Of Flash Drought In The Central United States During 2012, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jordan I. Christian, Ryann A. Wakefield, Jason A. Otkin, Eric H. Hunt, David P. Brown

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

During 2012, flash drought developed and subsequently expanded across large areas of the Central United States (US) with severe impacts to overall water resources and warm-season agricultural production. Recent efforts have yielded a methodology to detect and quantify flash drought occurrence and rate of intensification from climatological datasets via the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR). This study utilizes the North American Regional Reanalysis and applied the SESR methodology to quantify the spatial and temporal development and expansion of flash drought conditions during 2012. Critical results include the identification of the flash drought epicenter and subsequent spread of flash drought conditions …

Role Of Sea Surface Temperatures In Forcing Circulation Anomalies Driving U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Elinor R. Martin, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study usesERAtwentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. …

Influence Of Land Cover And Soil Moisture Based Brown Ocean Effect On An Extreme Rainfall Event From A Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System, Udaysankar S. Nair, Eric Rappin, Emily Foshee, Warren Smith, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rezaul Mahmood, Jonathan L. Case, Clay B. Blankenship, Marshall Shepherd, Joseph A. Santanello, Dev Niyogi

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of the ‘Brown Ocean’ effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it’s modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over …

The Total Solar Eclipse Of 2017: Meteorological Observations From A Statewide Mesonet And Atmospheric Profiling Systems, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Eric Rappin, Melissa Griffin, Patrick Collins, Kevin Knupp, Andrew Quilligan, Ryan Wade, Kevin Cary, Stuart Foster

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A total solar eclipse traversed 37 the continental United States on August 21, 2017. It 38 was the first such event in 99 years and provided a rare opportunity to observe the atmospheric response from a variety of instrumented observational platforms. This paper discusses the high quality observations collected by the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org), a research-grade meteorological and climatological observation network consisting of 72 stations and measuring air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The network samples the atmosphere, for most variables, every three seconds and then calculates and records observations every five minutes. During …

Irrigation Impacts On Minimum And Maximum Surface Moist Enthalpy In The Central Great Plains Of The Usa, Tianyi Zhang, Rezaul Mahmood, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Agricultural activities notably alter weather and climate including near-surface heat content. However, past research primarily focused on dry bulb temperature without considering the role of water vapor (dew point temperature) on surface air heat content. When using dry bulb temperature trends to assess these changes, for example, not including concurrent trends in absolute humidity can lead to errors in the actual rate of warming or cooling. Here we examined minimum and maximum surface moist enthalpy, which can be expressed as “equivalent temperature.” Using hourly climate data in the Central Great Plains (Nebraska and Kansas) from 1990 to 2014, the averages …

Enhancing Acis Maps: Increasing Usability Through A Gis Portal, Natalie Umphlett, Warren Pettee, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) is one of six NOAA Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) in the United States that aims to provide timely climate data and information to the public for cost-effective decision-making. As part of a three-tiered approach to climate services, the RCCs address needs on the national, regional, state, and local scales for a variety of sectors including agriculture, energy, natural resource management, research, transportation, and water resources. Working together, the RCCs develop and disseminate a wide range of valueadded climate products and services.

One of the HPRCC’s most popular products is the Applied Climate Information …

Conducting A Drought-Specific Thira (Threat And Hazard Identification And Risk Assessment): A Powerful Tool For Integrating All-Hazard Mitigation And Drought Planning Efforts To Increase Drought Mitigation Quality, Elliot Wickham, Deborah J. Bathke, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Tonya K. Bernadt, Denise Bulling, Lisa M. Pytlikzillig, Crystal J. Stiles, Nicole Wall

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address …

Droughtscape, Winter 2019, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Drought intensified in California and Nevada, eased elsewhere

Year in Review: Drought spread and intensified in the West; record precipitation in the East

Drought impact summary for 4th quarter 2018

Drought impact summary 2018

Five states began drought plan updates in 2018

New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier

FEMA risk assessment process tailored for drought

Upcoming events

Through The Eyes Of Locals: A Changing Climate In Bolivia, Jacob D. Rex

Undergraduate Theses, Professional Papers, and Capstone Artifacts

Deforestation and Agricultural Land-Use Change in Bolivia as a Function of Socio-Economic Realities.

This research combines semi-structured interviews of key informants and local participants, as well as field observations, which were conducted between January and April of 2019 in the Departments of Santa Cruz & Chuquisaca.

Holocene Fire History Reconstruction Of A Mid-Evaluation Mixed-Conifer Forest In The Eastern Cascades, Washington, Zoe Rushton

All Master's Theses

Fire histories of mid-elevation mixed-conifer forests (MEMC) are uncommon, particularly in the eastern Cascades of Washington. As a result, fire regimes and the effects of 20th century fire suppression in these forests are not well understood. In the summer of 2014 a 7.80 meter-long sediment core was extracted from Long Lake, located approximately 45 km west of Yakima, WA, which exists in a grand fir-dominated mixed-conifer forest. Fire activity for the Long Lake watershed was reconstructed using macroscopic charcoal analysis and pollen analysis was used to reconstruct vegetation change through time. Charcoal results show low fire activity in the early …

Modeled And Measured Ecosystem Respiration In Maize–Soybean Systems Over 10 Years, Ming Zhan, Adam Liska, Anthony Nguy-Robertson, Andrew E. Suyker, Matthew P. Pelton, Haishun Yang

Adam Liska Papers

Crop residue is an abundant resource for the potential production of biofuels, but a better understanding of its use on net carbon emissions must be developed to mitigate climate change. This analysis combines two established crop growth models (Hybrid-Maize and SoySim) with a simple soil and crop residue respiration model to estimate daily ecosystem respiration (ERe) from maize and soybean; ERe was estimated to be the sum of CO₂ emissions from the oxidation of the growing crop, crop residue, and soil organic carbon (SOC). Model-estimated CO₂ fluxes from irrigated continuous maize and irrigated maize–soybean cropping systems in eastern …

Exploring Community Knowledge And Perceptions Of Flooding And Sea-Level Rise In King Salmon, California, Kristina Kunkel

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

The coastal community of King Salmon, California could be at the highest risk of relative sea-level rise on the entire U.S. West Coast. In 2019, the community already experiences severe flooding at least annually and may be regularly inundated as early as 2050. Until this study, there had been no documented effort to reach out to the community to show them future sea-level rise projections, understand the context of life in King Salmon, and listen to their reactions and perceptions. This research utilized a mixed methods grounded theory approach integrating semi-structured interviews with King Salmon stakeholders, qualitative data analysis, public …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2018, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Water Resources and Drought

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Water, Energy, And Carbon Footprints Of Bioethanol From The U.S. And Brazil, Mesfin Mekonnen, Thiago L. Romanelli, Chittaranjan Ray, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Adam Liska, Christopher M. U. Neale

Adam Liska Papers

Driven by biofuel policies, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase domestic energy supply, global production and consumption of bioethanol have doubled between 2007 and 2016, with rapid growth in corn-based bioethanol in the U.S. and sugar cane-based bioethanol in Brazil. Advances in crop yields, energy use efficiency in fertilizer production, biomass-to-ethanol conversion rates, and energy efficiency in ethanol production have improved the energy balance and GHG emission reduction potential of bioethanol. In the current study, the water, energy, and carbon footprints of bioethanol from corn in the U.S. and sugar cane in Brazil were assessed. The …

Droughtscape, Fall 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the director

Drought greatly improves in Southern Plains and South

Texas, Missouri, and Colorado logged late-summer impacts

Memory, remote sensing and a new research methodology

Navigating the U.S. Drought Monitor

Planners discuss the barriers to effective drought mitigation planning

Exploring climate issues from a county management perspective

Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management and Enhancing Resilience in Africa

Mena global policy forum looks from data to mitigation

About us

State-by-state drought classification table developed by NDMC graduate student

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- October 2018, Natalie Umphlett, Rezaul Mamood, Jamie Lahowetz, Warren Pettee, Dalton Van Stratten, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

ACIS GIS portal release..........2

ACIS maps enhancement.....3

Product highlight....................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Update on tribal engagement............................................. 5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Quantifying Climate Sensitivity And Climate-Driven Change In North American Amphibian Communities, David A. W. Miller, Evan H Campbell Grant, Erin Muths, Staci M. Amburgey, Michael J. Adams, Maxwell B. Joseph, J. Hardin Waddle, Pieter T. J. Johnson, Maureen E. Ryan, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Daniel L. Calhoun, Courtney L. Davis, Robert N. Fisher, David M. Green, Blake R. Hossack, Tracy A. G. Rittenhouse, Susan C. Walls, Larissa L. Bailey, Sam S. Cruickshank, Gary M. Fellers, Thomas A. Gorman, Carola A. Haas, Ward Hughson, David S. Pilliod, Steve J. Price, Andrew M. Ray, Walt Sadinski, Daniel Saenz, William J. Barichivich, Adrianne Brand

Forestry and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using > 500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in …

Does Environment Filtering Or Seed Limitation Determine Post-Fire Forest Recovery Patterns In Boreal Larch Forests?, Wen H. Cai, Zhihua Liu, Yuan Z. Yang, Jian Yang

Forestry and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Wildfire is a primary natural disturbance in boreal forests, and post-fire vegetation recovery rate influences carbon, water, and energy exchange between the land and atmosphere in the region. Seed availability and environmental filtering are two important determinants in regulating post-fire vegetation recovery in boreal forests. Quantifying how these determinants change over time is helpful for understanding post-fire forest successional trajectory. Time series of remote sensing data offer considerable potential in monitoring the trajectory of post-fire vegetation recovery dynamics beyond current field surveys about structural attributes, which generally lack a temporal perspective across large burned areas. We used a time series …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2018, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- July 2018, Natalie Umphlett, Emily Brown, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

GRAINEX project......................2

Product highlights..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

GIS Portal....................................4

Regional news..........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape, Summer 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the director

Drought expands and intensifies

Dry down fuels fires

Tweeting #drought18

MOISST and NSMN

Caribbean planning progress

Drought observer network study

MENA teams report progress

NDMC global outreach

Climate hub workshop

On the horizon

Umphlett Qci June 2018, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Precipitation Anomalies

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Adam J. Liska: Curriculum Vitae, Adam Liska

Adam Liska Papers

Associate Professor, George Dempster Smith Chair of Industrial Ecology, Departments of Biological Systems Engineering and Agronomy & Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln 236 L.W. Chase Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0726, Ph: (402) 472-8744, e-mail: [email protected]

Ph.D. 2003 Biology (magna cum laude), Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology & Genetics, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2018, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles, Shellie Hanneman

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Weather photo of the quarter.........................................1

Tribal climate summaries......2

Product highlights..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

State Climate Extremes Committee.................................4

Update on research................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Primary Atmospheric Drivers Of Pluvial Years In The United States Great Plains, Paul Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies …

Droughtscape, Spring 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa

NDMC on a global playing field

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts

Svoboda named to United Nations advisory group

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara

Connecting locally for global change