Climate Commons^™

A Multi-Millennial Drought Reconstruction For West-Central New Mexico Using Rocky Mountain Juniper (Juniperus Scopulorum, Sarg.), Joshua S. Oliver

Master's Theses

A new multi-millennial tree-ring record from living and remnant Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum, Sarg.) wood from Candelaria in west-central New Mexico is used to determine the temporal and spatial variability of scPDSI over the past two millennia (B.C. 492 to A.D. 2014). Our record indicates extreme drought events found within other hydroclimatic proxy records in the Colorado Plateau region spanning the time period (16^th century and 2^nd century megadroughts). By ranking the extreme drought events by magnitude, duration, intensity, and overall score, the most extreme drought events of this record are compared to drought events …

Global Ranking Of U.S. Adults Concerned About Climate Change, Eric Marek

Undergraduate Research Conference

Even with a plethora of evidence and the vast majority of climate scientists supporting climate change, there remains a considerable amount of denial among the public. The purpose of this research is to examine where the United States stands in relation to other countries on the topic of climate change. The aspects explored include the history of climate change, the effects of climate change on the environment, science literacy and pseudoscience beliefs, opposition to climate change, the mitigation of climate change, as well as public opinion of climate change. This paper will include measures taken by governments and businesses to …

Link Between Local Phenology And Climate Change, Blake Steiner, Tatyana Lobova

Virginias Collegiate Honors Council Conference

The SouthEast Virginia Phenology Project was initiated as collaboration between Norfolk Botanical Garden and Old Dominion University in 2010 to document phenology of seven native plants and potential effects of the climate change on their life cycle. The air temperature in Norfolk has increased on average by 0.02ºC per year since 1980. Four out of seven of taxonomically diverse plant species (Mayapple, Flowering Dogwood, Highbush Blueberry, and Common ButtonBush) exhibited significant sensitivity to warming temperatures. Of these four, only Common Buttonbush (Cephalanthus occidentalis) had shown significant phenophases shift. Specifically, first flowering and first fruiting dates had shifted 2.7 …

Weather Variability And The Tourism Industry: A Panel Data Analysis, Carmela Coppola

Honors Projects in Economics

Increasing weather variability around the world has led to many researchers examining the impacts of weather variability on vulnerable industries. For example, the tourism industry can make up a large portion of an economy’s growth, with some of the most dependent countries relying on tourism for over 40% of GDP (World Travel & Tourism Council 2014). In an attempt to better understand the relationship between weather variability and the tourism industry at the country level, this study employs a series of fixed effects panel regression models to analyze the impact of rainfall and temperature on tourism levels and growth rates …

Modeling Gross Primary Production Of Midwest Maize And Soybean Croplands With Satellite And Gridded Weather Data, Gunnar Malek-Madani

Department of Geography: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The gross primary production (GPP) metric is useful in determining trends in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Models that determine GPP utilizing the light use efficiency (LUE) approach in conjunction with biophysical parameters that account for local weather conditions and crop specific factors are beneficial in that they combine the accuracy of the biophysical model with the versatility of the LUE model. One such model developed using in situ data was adapted to operate with remote sensing derived leaf area index (LAI) data and gridded weather datasets. The model, known as the Light Use Efficiency GPP Model (EGM), uses a four …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Fisheries & wildlife climate workshop...................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

NCA workshop and outreach activities......................................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Getting That Sinking Feeling: Analysis And Impacts Of Sea Level Rise On Three National Parks Along The East Coast, Usa, Julia K. Deros, Amanda L. Thibault, Amy B. True

Student Publications

Due to global climate change, sea level rise (SLR) has become a threat for future generations, but the extent of this danger is unknown. To help understand the possible effects of SLR on the east coast of the United States, we studied three national parks: Acadia National Park (ACAD), Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS) and Everglades National Park (EVER). We predicted that ACAD would be less affected by SLR than ASIS and EVER due to the construction of its beach profile. By measuring the beach profile, we found that Sand Beach in ACAD was reflective with an average slope of …

Geographic Variation Of Cirques On Iceland: Factors Influencing Cirque Morphology, Heather A. Ipsen, Rachael E. Grube, Jessica F. Lee, Sarah M. Principato

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

Cirques are one of the most common glacial landforms in alpine settings. They also provide important paleoclimate information (e.g. Meierding 1984; Evans 2006). The purpose of this study is to fill in gaps in the climate record of Iceland by conducting a quantitative analysis of cirques in three regions in Iceland: Tröllaskagi, the East Fjords, and Vestfirðir. Iceland, located in the center of the North Atlantic Ocean, contains many small glaciers, in addition to large ice caps. The glaciers on Iceland are particularly sensitive to variations in oceanic and atmospheric circulation (Andresen et al. 2005; Geirsdóttir et al., 2009; Ólafsdóttir …

New Constraints On The Timing And Pattern Of Deglaciation In The Húnaflói Bay Region Of Northwest Iceland Using Cosmogenic 36ca Dating And Geomorphic Mapping, Amanda N. Houts, Joseph M. Licciardi, Sarah M. Principato, Susan H. Zimmerman, Robert C. Finkel

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

Understanding the evolution and timing of changes in ice sheet geometry and extent in Iceland during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation continues to stimulate much active research. Though many previous studies have advanced our knowledge of Icelandic ice sheet history preserved in marine and terrestrial settings (e.g., Andrews et al., 2000; Norðdahl et al., 2008), the timing of ice margin retreat remains largely unknown in several key regions. Recently published 36Cl surface exposure ages of bedrock surfaces and moraines in the West Fjords (Brynjólfsson et al., 2015) contribute important progress in establishing more precise age control of …

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Watershed Response To Climate Change And Fire-Burns In The Upper Umatilla River Basin, Usa, Kimberly Crystal Yazzie, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in …

The Irreversible Momentum Of Clean Energy, Barack Obama

United States Department of Energy: Publications

The release of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to human activity is increasing global average surface air temperatures, disrupting weather patterns, and acidifying the ocean. Left unchecked, the continued growth of GHG emissions could cause global average temperatures to increase by another 4°C or more by 2100 and by 1.5 to 2 times as much in many midcontinent and far northern locations. Although our understanding of the impacts of climate change is increasingly and disturbingly clear, there is still debate about the proper course for U.S. policy—a debate that is very much on display …

Application Of Recurrent Neural Networks For Drought Projections In California, J. A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between …

Burundi : Water Scarcity, Isabel Salas

Global Public Health

Burundi is located near the African great lakes region of East Africa. This country is one of the poorest and hungriest countries throughout the world because of this they are facing multiple problems with communicable disease. These families are seeing a reduction in the amount of water available to them and based on this they are receiving water from external sources such as wells and lakes. Most of the water throughout Burundi is contaminated with Phytoplankton which increase cholera outbreaks in this area. It has also been shown that uranium impacts the water throughout the wells and lakes. Both of …

Climate Change In The Hudson River Estuary: Promoting Adaptation And Resilience Through Stakeholder Engagement In Design And Visualization, Gabrielle S.D. Weiss

Bard Center for Environmental Policy

In response to the growing risk to communities from climate change impacts, Professor Cerra at the Cornell University School of Landscape Architecture developed the Climate Adaptive Design (CAD) program. CAD is being implemented as a partnership between the Hudson River Estuary Program (Estuary Program) and Cornell that utilizes participatory design and visualization to engage communities about planning for future climate impacts. The goal of CAD is to build climate resilience, galvanize community participation and education, and build links to external sources of support including local institutions of higher education. This thesis outlines background for the development of the program and …

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Tourism Business Resilience For Coastal Virginia Assessment Report, Lindsay E. Usher, Michelle Covi, Juita-Elena Wie Yusuf, Kaitlin Giles, Elizabeth Armistead Andrews, Angela King, Sashenka Brauer, Rebecca Ribley

Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency (CCRFR): Reports

This report summarizes the results of the Tourism Business Resilience Project conducted by the Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency and Virginia Sea Grant. This project was a joint effort by faculty and students from the Old Dominion University Resilience Collaborative and the Virginia Coastal Policy Center at the William & Mary Law School.

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …