Climate Commons^™

Heat Stress During Larval Stages On Coral Survivorship For M. Capitata, Sarah Woo

Pitzer Senior Theses

Very little is known about how heat stress during larvae stages effect larvae survivorship, early coral recruit settlement, and later stage coral survivorship. We focused on determining how heat stress during larvae stages effected Montipora capitata survivorship over time. After thermally stressing larvae, we asked how many larvae survived the treatment, how the treatment affected settlement, how many larvae survived the heat treatment but did not settle, and later stage coral survivorship experienced residual effects from the heat stress treatment. We exposed coral larvae to ambient seawater temperatures at 30°C and heated seawater temperatures to 34°C for an hour and …

Droughtscape, Winter 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Winter 2021

Variation In Coral Thermotolerance Across A Pollution Gradient Erodes As Coral Symbionts Shift To More Heat-Tolerant Genera, Melissa S. Naugle, Thomas A. Oliver, Daniel J. Barshis, Ruth D. Gates, Cheryl A. Logan

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Phenotypic plasticity is one mechanism whereby species may cope with stressful environmental changes associated with climate change. Reef building corals present a good model for studying phenotypic plasticity because they have experienced rapid climate-driven declines in recent decades (within a single generation of many corals), often with differential survival among individuals during heat stress. Underlying differences in thermotolerance may be driven by differences in baseline levels of environmental stress, including pollution stress. To examine this possibility, acute heat stress experiments were conducted on Acropora hyacinthus from 10 sites around Tutuila, American Samoa with differing nutrient pollution impact. A threshold-based heat …

Anticipating And Adapting To The Future Impacts Of Climate Change On The Health, Security And Welfare Of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities In Southeastern Usa, Thomas Allen, Joshua Behr, Anamaria Bukvic, Ryan S.D. Calder, Kiki Caruson, Charles Connor, Christopher D'Elia, David Dismukes, Robin Ersing, Rima Franklin, Jesse Goldstein, Jonathon Goodall, Scott Hemmerling, Jennifer Irish, Steven Lazarus, Derek Loftis, Mark Luther, Leigh Mccallister, Karen Mcglathery, Molly Mitchell, William Moore, Charles Reid Nichols, Karinna Nunez, Matthew Reidenbach, Julie Shortridge, Robert Weisberg, Robert Weiss, Lynn Donelson Wright, Meng Xia, Kehui Xu, Donald Young, Gary Zarillo, Julie C. Zinnert

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to …

Coral Oxygen Isotopic Records Capture The 2015/2016 El Niño Event In The Central Equatorial Pacific, Gemma K. O'Connor, Kim M. Cobb, Hussein R. Sayani, Alyssa R. Atwood, Pamela R. Grothe, Samantha Stevenson, Et. Al.

Earth and Environmental Sciences

Coral oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from the central equatorial Pacific provide monthly resolved records of El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity over past centuries to millennia. However, calibration studies using in situ data to assess the relative contributions of warming and freshening to coral δ18O records are exceedingly rare. Furthermore, the fidelity of coral δ18O records under the most severe thermal stress events is difficult to assess. Here, we present six coral δ18O records and in situ temperature, salinity, and seawater δ18O data from Kiritimati Island (2°N, 157°W) spanning the very strong 2015/16 El Niño event. Local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of …

Time Lags: Insights From The U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network, Edward B. Rastetter, Mark D. Ohman, Katherine J. Elliott, J. S. Rehage, Victor H. Rivera-Monroy, R. E. Boucek, Edward Castañeda-Moya, Tess M. Danielson, Laura Gough, Peter M. Groffman, C. Rhett Jackson, Chelcy Ford Miniat, Gaius R. Shaver

Advanced Science Research Center

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long-term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case …

Changes In The Philippine Coastal Environment, Karl H. Szekielda, Ma. Aileen Leah G. Guzman

Environmental Science Faculty Publications

Global warming is progressing at a faster speed than has been estimated earlier in climate forecasting, and the ocean responds rather quickly to global temperature increase. This study uses remotely sensed data that were accessed from the System for Multidisciplinary Research and Applications (NASA Giovanni) to study environmental change in the Philippines’ coast. Monthly averaged sea surface temperature series from around the Philippines indicate that the Philippines follow the global trend in ocean temperature increase and show the increase of about 0.50C within two decades. Despite the high variability in temperature, the linear regressions displayed for all seasons show an …

Experiential Learning In Soil Science: Evaluating Soil Quality In South Wollo, Ethiopia, Melissa Allen, Martha Mamo, Shimelis Beyene, Teshome Regassa, Gandura O. Abagandura, Solomon Abreha, Anthony James Mucia, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study abroad program provided an opportunity to enhance the international experience and research skills of University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) students within a multidisciplinary team’s research-education goal on improving food security in Ethiopia. The experiential study component of the project included preparatory sessions during the Fall 2015 Semester at the UNL followed by a four- to five-week fieldwork experience in Ethiopia. Teams from the UNL and an Ethiopian university participated in survey data collection and field soil evaluations from farms in the Gerado area of South Wollo, Ethiopia. Having students interact with farmers increased student self-confidence and enhanced their leadership …

Recent Flooding Events On The Chagrin And Cuyahoga Rivers, Ohio, Kayley Martin

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

From the 1910s through the 1980s, the number of intense daily precipitation events in the United States remained constant, however, since the 1980s there has been an increasing trend in intense single-day precipitation events (U.S Environmental Protection Agency, 2016). One outcome of intense precipitation events is river flooding, particularly in the upper Midwest region where floods have increased in magnitude and frequency (U.S Environmental Protection Agency, 2016). In this thesis project, recent flooding history on the Chagrin and Cuyahoga Rivers in Ohio was studied to expand on previous research that observed an abrupt increase in high magnitude flood events on …

Temperature Variance Portends And Indicates The Extent Of Abrupt Climate Shifts, Christine Ramadhin, Chuixiang Yi, George Hendrey

Publications and Research

Here, we show a discernable increase in temperature variance before a glacial termination by both the Ansari-Bradley test and the moving variance methods plus introduce the idea that there is a correlation between the peak variance and peak temperature increase. The behavior of temperature variance shows potential as a useful tool in analyzing time series data of Earth systems to assess the risk and extent of an upcoming abrupt climate transition.

Quantification Of Climate Variability And Extreme Events In The Great Plains, Angelinah Ntsieng Rasoeu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Climate variability and extreme events continue to worsen resulting in significant impacts to society and the environment. Quantifying precipitation variability, streamflow, and extreme events at local scale is crucial for local planning and management due to spatial and temporal precipitation variability which influences streamflow and thus, water resources. This study uses statistical tools to analyze 1895-2019 (125 years) of historical precipitation data to examine how long-term precipitation varies annually, seasonally, and monthly, and create climate classifications. The results show that annual precipitation is increasing linearly over time ranging from 13.2 in (1976) to 43.1 in (2010) and 5 climate classes …

Pattern-Based Downscaling Of Snowpack Variability In The Western United States, Nicolas Gauthier, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Bethany Coulthard

Geoscience Faculty Research

The decline in snowpack across the western United States is one of the most pressing threats posed by climate change to regional economies and livelihoods. Earth system models are important tools for exploring past and future snowpack variability, yet their coarse spatial resolutions distort local topography and bias spatial patterns of accumulation and ablation. Here, we explore pattern-based statistical downscaling for spatially-continuous interannual snowpack estimates. We find that a few leading patterns capture the majority of snowpack variability across the western US in observations, reanalyses, and free-running simulations. Pattern-based downscaling methods yield accurate, high resolution maps that correct mean and …

Cascading Effects: Insights From The U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network, Christie A. Bahlai, Clarisse Hart, Maria T. Kavanaugh, Jeffrey D. White, Roger W. Ruess, Todd J. Brinkman, Hugh W. Ducklow, David R. Foster, William R. Fraser, Hélène Genet, Peter M. Groffman, Stephen K. Hamilton, Jill F. Johnstone, Knut Kielland, Douglas A. Landis, Michelle C. Mack, Orlando Sarnelle, Jonathan R. Thompson

Advanced Science Research Center

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and unpredictable ways and analysis of these changes requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the LTER core research area of “populations and communities.” This analysis revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling “story” about what their site would look like in 50–100 yr. As the stories were prepared, themes emerged, and the stories were group into papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading …

Evaluation Of A Low-Cost Uas And Phenocams For Measuring Grapevine Greenness, Timothy J. Hoheneder

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Unpersoned aerial systems (UAS) could provide winegrowers with the potential to monitor vineyard productivity with ultra-high-resolution imagery and low operational costs. This ability could prove particularly valuable in the challenging cool-climate viticultural areas of Appalachia. Especially in this mountainous region of increasingly variable microclimates, there could be of great value from an ability to use UAS-measured greenness to monitor wine grape phenology and predict harvest quality and quantity. In this study, I assess how UAS-measured greenness relates to three complementary measures of field-based: leaf angle measurements, phenocam measured greenness, and leaf spectral measurements of greenness. After correlating these field-based measures …

Katanning Research Facility Carbon Footprint Assessment And Strategy To Achieve Carbon Neutrality By 2030, Stephen Wiedemann, Kristina Duff, Mandy Curnow, Perry J. Dolling, David Bicknell, Paul Sanford, John P. Collins, Gavin D'Adhemar

Climate Science Published Reports

As part of the Western Australian Government’s commitment to emissions reduction and the sustainable mitigation of climate change, the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) identified that the Katanning Research Facility (KRF) is a significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter and that the site provides an opportunity to improve our understanding of emissions arising from agriculture, particularly livestock production. This report presents a baseline organisational carbon footprint assessment and a sustainable emissions reduction strategy with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality for the research facility by 2030.

KRF, with its intensive animal facilities and commercial farm setup, is the …

Influence Of Some Climatic Elements On Radon Concentration In Saeva Dupka Cave, Bulgaria, Peter Nojarov, Petar Stefanov, Karel Turek

International Journal of Speleology

This study reveals the influence of some climatic elements on radon concentration in Saeva Dupka Cave, Bulgaria. The research is based mainly on statistical methods. Radon concentration in the cave is determined by two main mechanisms. The first one is through penetration of radon from soil and rocks around the cave (present all year round, but has leading role during the warm half of the year). The second one is through thermodynamic exchange of air between inside of the cave and outside atmosphere (cold half of the year). Climatic factors that affect radon concentration in the cave are temperatures (air, …

Species Distribution Modeling For Arid Adapted Habitat Specialists In Zion National Park, Sam Driver, Daniel R. Unger, David L. Kulhavy, Chris M. Schalk

Student Publications

The Arizona toad (Anaxyrus microscaphus) and Jones’ waxy dogbane (Cycladenia humilis var. jonesii) are habitat specialists with historical ranges in the desert southwest and specifically, Zion National Park (ZION). The machine learning method, MaxEnt, constructed species distribution models (SDMs) in ZION for the two study species at 30 m and 900 m spatial resolutions using climate, topographic, and remotely sensed data. Additionally, 900 m forecasting models were constructed to observe the shifts in suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2070, based off two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Results indicate promising predictive power for both high …

Building An Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (Few) Systems Focus, Lindsay E. Johnson, Hatim M.E. Geli, Michael J. Hayes, Kelly Helm Smith

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a familiar climatic phenomenon in the United States Southwest, with complex human-environment interactions that extend beyond just the physical drought events. Due to continued climate variability and change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and/or severe in the future. Decision-makers are charged with mitigating and adapting to these more extreme conditions and to do that they need to understand the specific impacts drought has on regional and local scales, and how these impacts compare to historical conditions. Tremendous progress in drought monitoring strategies has occurred over the past several decades, with more tools providing greater spatial and …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: December 2020 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for December 2020. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

A Colonized Cop: Indigenous Exclusion And Youth Climate Justice Activism At The United Nations Climate Change Negotiations, Corrie Grosse, Brigid Mark

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

Youth activists around the world are demanding urgent climate action from elected leaders. The annual United Nations climate change negotiations, known as COPs, are key sites of global organizing and hope for a comprehensive approach to climate policy. Drawing on participant observation and in-depth interviews at COP25 in 2019, this research examines youth climate activists’ priorities, frustrations and hopes for creating just climate policy. Youth are disillusioned with the COP process and highlight a variety of ways through which the COP perpetuates colonial power structures that marginalize Indigenous peoples and others fighting for justice. This is intersectional exclusion - the …

Developing A Tourism Opportunity Index Regarding The Prospective Of Overtourism In Nepal, Susan Phuyal

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

This research explores Nepal's overtourism scenario based on the capacity of a locality to manage sustainable tourism practices. Environmental degradation, local infrastructure degradation, negative tourist experience and local resident responses regarding visitors are the four main variables used in this study to analyze overtourism. In order to analyze the case study of overtourism, we select the three top touristic cities of Nepal, Kathmandu, Pokhara, and Chitwan based on the number of annual visitors. Nepal's case analysis of overtourism conditions reviews the overall threat of over-tourism and establishes a metric by which tourism can be viewed as potentially detrimental to sustainability. …

The Role Of Traditional Knowledge In Coastal Adaptation Priorities: The Pamunkey Indian Reservation, Nicole S. Hutton, Thomas R. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Coastal reservations are increasingly vulnerable to hazards exacerbated by climate change. Resources for restoration projects are limited. Storm surge, storms, tidal flooding, and erosion endanger artifacts and limit livelihoods of tribes in coastal Virginia. GIS offers a platform to increase communication between scientists, planners, and indigenous groups. The Pamunkey Indian Tribe engaged in a participatory mapping exercise to assess the role of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in coastal management decision-making and its capacity to address flooding. Priorities and strategies were spatially referenced using maps of potential sea level rise for 2040, 2060, and 2080, input into a resilience matrix to …

Projecting Water Available For Irrigation Use And Identifying Water Supply Stress Under Climate Change Scenarios In Selected U.S. Fruit And Vegetable Production Regions, Andrew Shaw

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Climate change affects water resources differently across geospatial regions in the United States (U.S). There is a concern of how water availability will be affected by changes in long-term temperature and precipitation patterns, specifically in major production regions for eight fruit and vegetable crops. The effects on surface water available for irrigation use and supply stress in five regions containing 31 Agricultural Statistics Districts (ASDs) were assessed. The Water Supply Stress Index Model was used and modified to project water available for irrigation use across nine climate scenarios driven by historical data, five General Circulation Models, two population scenarios, and …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: November 2020 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for November 2020. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Forest Drought Response Index (Fordri): A New Combined Model To Monitor Forest Drought In The Eastern United States, Tsegaye Tadesse, David Y. Hollinger, Yared A. Bayissa, Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Beichen Zhang, Getachew Demissie, Brian D. Wardlow, Gil Bohrer, Kenneth L. Clark, Ankur R. Desai, Lianhong Gu, Asko Noormets, Kimberly A. Novick, Andrew D. Richardson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring drought impacts in forest ecosystems is a complex process because forest ecosystems are composed of different species with heterogeneous structural compositions. Even though forest drought status is a key control on the carbon cycle, very few indices exist to monitor and predict forest drought stress. The Forest Drought Indicator (ForDRI) is a new monitoring tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to identify forest drought stress. ForDRI integrates 12 types of data, including satellite, climate, evaporative demand, ground water, and soil moisture, into a single hybrid index to estimate tree stress. The model uses Principal Component Analysis …

Mass And Number Size Distributions Of Rbc In Snow And Firn Samples From Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, Luciano Marquetto, Susan Kaspari, Jefferson Cardia Simões

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

An extended‐range Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) coupled to a Marin‐5 nebulizer was used to measure the refractory black carbon (rBC) mass and number size distributions in 1,004 samples from a West Antarctica snow/firn core. The SP2 was calibrated using Aquadag and a Centrifugal Particle Mass Analyzer for BC particles ranging from 0.5 to 800 fg. Our results indicate a significant contribution of rare, large particles of mass‐equivalent diameter (D_BC) > 500 nm to the total rBC mass (36%), while small particles (D_BC < 100 nm) are abundant but contribute <8% to total rBC mass. We observed a primary mass median diameter of 162 ± 40 nm, smaller than reported for snow in other regions of the globe but similar to East Antarctica rBC size distributions. In addition, we observed other modes at 673, 1,040, and >1,810 nm (uncontained mode). We compared two sets of samples from different seasons …

Seasonal Grassland Productivity Forecast For The U.S. Great Plains Using Grass-Cast, Melannie D. Hartman, William J. Parton, Justin D. Derner, Darin K. Schulte, William K. Smith, Dannele E. Peck, Ken A. Day, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Susan Lutz, Brian Fuchs, Maosi Chen, Wei Gao

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, …

Cosore: A Community Database For Continuous Soil Respiration And Other Soil-Atmosphere Greenhouse Gas Flux Data, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Danielle S. Christianson, Avni Malhotra, Stephanie C. Pennington, Debjani Sihi, Amir Aghakouchak, Hassan Anjileli, M. Altaf Arain, Juan J. Armesto, Samaneh Ashraf, Mioko Ataka, Dennis Baldocchi, Thomas Andrew Black, Nina Buchmann, Mariah S. Carbone, Shih-Chieh Chang, Patrick Crill, Peter S. Curtis, Eric A. Davidson, Ankur R. Desai, John E. Drake, Tarek S. El-Madany, Michael Gavazzi, Carolyn-Monika Görres, Christopher M. Gough, Michael Goulden, Jillian Gregg, Omar Gutiérrez Del Arroyo, Jin-Sheng He, Takashi Hirano, Anya Hopple, Holly Hughes, Järvi Järveoja, Rachhpal Jassal, Jinshi Jian, Haiming Kan, Jason Kaye, Yuji Kominami, Naishen Liang, David Lipson, Catriona A. Macdonald, Kadmiel Maseyk, Kayla Mathes, Marguerite Mauritz, Melanie A. Mayes, Steve Mcnulty, Guofang Miao, Mirco Migliavacca, Scott Miller, Chelcy F. Miniat, Jennifer G. Nietz, Mats B. Nilsson, Asko Noormets, Hamidreza Norouzi, Christine S. O'Connell, Bruce Osborne, Cecilio Oyonarte, Zhuo Pang, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Jorge F. Perez-Quezada, Claire L. Phillips, Richard P. Phillips, James W. Raich, Alexandre A. Renchon, Nadine K. Ruehr, Enrique P. Sánchez-Cañete, Matthew Saunders, Kathleen E. Savage, Marion Schrumpf, Russell L. Scott, Ulli Seibt, Whendee L. Silver, Wu Sun, Daphne Szutu, Kentaro Takagi, Masahiro Takagi, Munemasa Teramoto, Mark G. Tjoelker, Susan Trumbore, Masahito Ueyama, Rodrigo Vargas, Ruth K. Varner, Joseph Verfaillie, Christoph Vogel, Jinsong Wang, Greg Winston, Tana E. Wood, Juying Wu, Thomas Wutzler, Jiye Zeng, Tianshan Zha, Quan Zhang, Junliang Zou

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Globally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil-to-atmosphere CO₂ flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (R_S), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high-frequency R_S measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: October 2020 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for October 2020. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Calibrating Human Attention As Indicator: Monitoring #Drought In The Twittersphere, Kelly Smith, Andrew Tyre, Zhenghong Tang, Michael Hayes, Adnan Akyuz

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

State climatologists and other expert drought observers have speculated about the value of monitoring Twitter for #drought and related hashtags. This study statistically examines the relationships between the rate of tweeting using #drought and related hashtags, within states, accounting for drought status and news coverage of drought. We collected and geolocated tweets, 2017–18, and used regression analysis and a diversity statistic to explain expected and identify unexpected volumes of tweets. This provides a quantifiable means to detect state-weeks with a volume of tweets that exceeds the upper limit of the prediction interval. To filter out instances where a high volume …