Climate Commons^™

Seasonal Grassland Productivity Forecast For The U.S. Great Plains Using Grass-Cast, Melannie D. Hartman, William J. Parton, Justin D. Derner, Darin K. Schulte, William K. Smith, Dannele E. Peck, Ken A. Day, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Susan Lutz, Brian Fuchs, Maosi Chen, Wei Gao

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, …

Correlation Analysis Of Precipitation And River Flow With The Injection And Discharge Of The Three Gorges Dam And Reservoir, Lirong Yin

LSU Master's Theses

The Yangtze River has been the primary support of the resources and transportation of China. Its basin covers an area of 1.8 million square kilometers. The Three Gorges Dam and Reservoir on the Yangtze River is one of the world's largest dams. After the dam construction in 1997, the reservoir started injecting the reservoir to a size of over 600 km². The influence caused by the dam and reservoir on the river system has been overwhelming and destructive. The possible influence of this vast water body and the operation to maintain this waterbody's size and water level on …

Cosore: A Community Database For Continuous Soil Respiration And Other Soil-Atmosphere Greenhouse Gas Flux Data, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Danielle S. Christianson, Avni Malhotra, Stephanie C. Pennington, Debjani Sihi, Amir Aghakouchak, Hassan Anjileli, M. Altaf Arain, Juan J. Armesto, Samaneh Ashraf, Mioko Ataka, Dennis Baldocchi, Thomas Andrew Black, Nina Buchmann, Mariah S. Carbone, Shih-Chieh Chang, Patrick Crill, Peter S. Curtis, Eric A. Davidson, Ankur R. Desai, John E. Drake, Tarek S. El-Madany, Michael Gavazzi, Carolyn-Monika Görres, Christopher M. Gough, Michael Goulden, Jillian Gregg, Omar Gutiérrez Del Arroyo, Jin-Sheng He, Takashi Hirano, Anya Hopple, Holly Hughes, Järvi Järveoja, Rachhpal Jassal, Jinshi Jian, Haiming Kan, Jason Kaye, Yuji Kominami, Naishen Liang, David Lipson, Catriona A. Macdonald, Kadmiel Maseyk, Kayla Mathes, Marguerite Mauritz, Melanie A. Mayes, Steve Mcnulty, Guofang Miao, Mirco Migliavacca, Scott Miller, Chelcy F. Miniat, Jennifer G. Nietz, Mats B. Nilsson, Asko Noormets, Hamidreza Norouzi, Christine S. O'Connell, Bruce Osborne, Cecilio Oyonarte, Zhuo Pang, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Jorge F. Perez-Quezada, Claire L. Phillips, Richard P. Phillips, James W. Raich, Alexandre A. Renchon, Nadine K. Ruehr, Enrique P. Sánchez-Cañete, Matthew Saunders, Kathleen E. Savage, Marion Schrumpf, Russell L. Scott, Ulli Seibt, Whendee L. Silver, Wu Sun, Daphne Szutu, Kentaro Takagi, Masahiro Takagi, Munemasa Teramoto, Mark G. Tjoelker, Susan Trumbore, Masahito Ueyama, Rodrigo Vargas, Ruth K. Varner, Joseph Verfaillie, Christoph Vogel, Jinsong Wang, Greg Winston, Tana E. Wood, Juying Wu, Thomas Wutzler, Jiye Zeng, Tianshan Zha, Quan Zhang, Junliang Zou

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Globally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil-to-atmosphere CO₂ flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (R_S), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high-frequency R_S measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems …

Calibrating Human Attention As Indicator: Monitoring #Drought In The Twittersphere, Kelly Smith, Andrew Tyre, Zhenghong Tang, Michael Hayes, Adnan Akyuz

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

State climatologists and other expert drought observers have speculated about the value of monitoring Twitter for #drought and related hashtags. This study statistically examines the relationships between the rate of tweeting using #drought and related hashtags, within states, accounting for drought status and news coverage of drought. We collected and geolocated tweets, 2017–18, and used regression analysis and a diversity statistic to explain expected and identify unexpected volumes of tweets. This provides a quantifiable means to detect state-weeks with a volume of tweets that exceeds the upper limit of the prediction interval. To filter out instances where a high volume …

Droughtscape, Fall 2020, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2020

Annual Concentration And Flux Of Non-Sea-Salt Sulfate In The Wais Divide Ice Core (Wdc) For The Last 11,000 Years, Jihong Cole-Dai

Ice Core and Environmental Chemistry Lab Datasets and Publications

Annual concentration and flux of non-sea-slat sulfate in the WAIS Divide ice core (WDC) for the last 11,000 years.

Characterizing Paleoenvironmental/Paleoclimatic Change Across The Permian-Triassic Boundary In The Terrestrial, High Southern Paleolatitudes: A Multiproxy Approach From The Bowen Basin, Queensland, Australia, Katarina N. Savatic

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Research shows that severe climatic perturbations, especially in the case of the worst ecosystem collapse of the Phanerozoic, the end-Permian extinction (EPE), have different spatial expressions across the globe. Using an integrated sedimentological and geochemical approach, this study from the Bowen Basin in Queensland, Australia provides a southern, high paleolatitude, stratigraphically-complete, terrestrial perspective across the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) that challenges previous interpretations. Analysis from this investigation allow for paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental assessments to be made to (1) better understand the depositional environments at this time through drillcore analysis, (2) characterize the elemental signatures of mudrocks, and (3) identify the globally …

Snow-Albedo Feedback In Northern Alaska: How Vegetation Influences Snowmelt, Lucas C. Reckhaus

Theses and Dissertations

This paper investigates how the snow-albedo feedback mechanism of the arctic is changing in response to rising climate temperatures. Specifically, the interplay of vegetation and snowmelt, and how these two variables can be correlated. This has the potential to refine climate modelling of the spring transition season. Research was conducted at the ecoregion scale in northern Alaska from 2000 to 2020. Each ecoregion is defined by distinct topographic and ecological conditions, allowing for meaningful contrast between the patterns of spring albedo transition across surface conditions and vegetation types. The five most northerly ecoregions of Alaska are chosen as they encompass …

Using Climate To Explain And Predict West Nile Virus Risk In Nebraska, Kelly Helm Smith, Andrew J. Tyre, Jeff Hamik, Michael J. Hayes, Yuzhen Zhou, Li Dai

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

We used monthly precipitation and temperature data to give early warning of years with higher West Nile Virus (WNV) risk in Nebraska. We used generalized additive models with a negative binomial distribution and smoothing curves to identify combinations of extremes and timing that had the most influence, experimenting with all combinations of temperature and drought data, lagged by 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. We fit models on data from 2002 through 2011, used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best‐fitting model, and used 2012 as out‐of‐sample data for prediction, and repeated this process for each successive year, …

The Post-Wildfire Impact Of Burn Severity And Age On Black Carbon Snow Deposition And Implications For Snow Water Resources, Cascade Range, Washington, Ted M. Uecker, Susan D. Kaspari, Keith N. Musselman, S. Mckenzie Skiles

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Wildfires in the snow zone affect ablation by removing forest canopy, which enhances surface solar irradiance, and depositing light absorbing particles [LAPs, such as black carbon (BC)] on the snowpack, reducing snow albedo. How variations in BC deposition affects post-wildfire snowmelt timing is poorly known and highly relevant to water resources. We present a field-based analysis of BC variability across five sites of varying burn age and burn severity in the Cascade Range, Washington State, United States. Single particle soot photometer (SP2) analyses of BC snow concentrations were used to assess the impact of BC on snow albedo, and radiative …

Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction Of Quaternary Saltville, Virginia, Using Ostracode Autecology, Austin Gause

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Saltville valley in southwestern Virginia is home to Quaternary localities containing paleontological and archaeological remains. Historically the valley has been mined for salt and the small lakes, ponds and springs along the valley floor have a brackish signature. A preliminary report on the site’s ostracode fauna suggested that the site’s water was not always saline. This study analyzed modern and Quaternary ostracodes to understand the valley’s hydrologic and chemical evolution. Sediments contained primarily freshwater species, including the environmentally sensitive Candona crogmaniana. The presence of Pelocypris tuberculatum and a new Fabaeformiscandona species throughout a vertical section spanning the latest Pleistocene …

Climate Change And Market-Based Insurance Feedbacks, Eric R. Holley, Adam Liska, Cory Walters, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Michael Hayes, Max J. Rudolph, Donald A. Wilhite

Adam Liska Papers

Climatic events have accounted for 91% of $1.05 trillion in insured costs for global catastrophic events from 1980 to 2016. Costs are driven by socio-economic development and increased frequency and severity of climatic disasters driven by climate change. Government policies to reduce systemic risk (e.g., cap-and-trade, carbon tax) have been a predominant approach for mitigation and adaptation. Alternatively, market-based incentives for climate change adaptation and mitigation already operate via the insurance industry to lessen impacts on society. Insurance feedbacks include changes in 1) premiums and insurance policies, 2) non-coverage, and 3) policy making and litigation. Alongside government policies, insurance feedbacks …

Statement Of World Aquatic Scientific Societies On The Need To Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based On Scientific Evidence [Dear Colleague Letter], Scott A. Bonar, Brian R. Murphy, Leanne H. Roulson, Jesse T. Trushenski, Douglas J. Austen, Michael Edward Douglas

United States Fish and Wildlife Service: Publications

Dear Colleague Letter from the American Fisheries Society to fellow scientific societies, July 25, 2020, about the urgent need for responsive collective action to mitigate impending radical climate change. Includes the Statement of World Aquatic Scientific Societies on the Need to Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based on Scientific Evidence, emphasizing the importance of aquatic ecosystems. Includes extensive citations and notes.

"Water is the most important natural resource on Earth as it is vital for life. Aquatic ecosystems, freshwater or marine, provide multiple benefits to human society, such as provisioning of oxygen, food, drinking water, genetic resources; regulation …

Monitoring Residual Soil Moisture And Its Association To The Long-Term Variability Of Rainfall Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin In Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring soil moisture and its association with rainfall variability is important to comprehend the hydrological processes and to set proper agricultural water use management to maximize crop growth and productivity. In this study, the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) soil moisture product was applied to assess the dynamics of residual soil moisture in autumn (September to November) and its response to the long-term variability of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) of Ethiopia from 1992 to 2017. The basin was found to have autumn soil moisture (ASM) ranging from 0.09–0.38 m³/m³, …

Droughtscape, Summer 2020, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Summer 2020

Long-Term Ndvi And Recent Vegetation Cover Profiles Of Major Offshore Island Nesting Sites Of Sea Turtles In Saudi Waters Of The Northern Arabian Gulf, Rommel H. Maneja, Jeffrey D. Miller, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Ace Vincent B. Flandez, Joshua J. Dagoy, Joselito Francis A. Alcaria, Abdullajid U. Basali, Khaled A. Al-Abdulkader, Ronald A. Loughland, Mohamed A. Qurban

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Vegetation is an important ecological component of offshore islands in the Arabian Gulf (AG), which maintains long-term resilience of these islands. This is achieved by influencing sediment retention and moisture acquisition via condensation during periods of high humidity and by providing a variety of microhabitats for island fauna. The resilience of offshore islands’ ecosystems in the Saudi waters is important because they host the largest number of nesting hawksbill and green turtles in the AG. This study defines the characteristics and the long-term trends in vegetation cover of the offshore islands used by sea turtles as nesting grounds in the …

Seasonal Transport Of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon And Total Alkalinity Across The Louisiana Shelf, Michelle M. Anderson

LSU Master's Theses

Rivers and wetlands are a major source of terrestrial derived carbon for coastal ocean margins. Unfortunately, Louisiana’s wetlands are threatened by ongoing high rates of erosion, deterioration, and unprecedented rates of river water discharge that changes seasonally, leading to a net loss of terrestrial carbon into the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM). There exists a current lack of understanding about the distribution of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TAlk) within the shallowest regions of the Louisiana shelf. Even less is known about how the transport of DIC alters seasonally with changes in river outflow and shelf currents. Quantifying …

Combined Use Of Sentinel‐1 Sar And Landsat Sensors Products For Residual Soil Moisture Retrieval Over Agricultural Fields In The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Yibeltal Yigrem, Assefa M. Melesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential of sentinel‐1 SAR sensor products and the contribution of soil roughness parameters to estimate volumetric residual soil moisture (RSM) in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin, Ethiopia. The backscatter contribution of crop residue water content was estimated using Landsat sensor product and the water cloud model (WCM). The surface roughness parameters were estimated from the Oh and Baghdadi models. A feed‐forward artificial neural network (ANN) method was tested for its potential to translate SAR backscattering and surface roughness input variables to RSM values. The model was trained for three inversion …

A Hydrometeorological Assessment Of The Historic 2019 Flood Of Nebraska, Iowa, And South Dakota, Paul Xavier Flanagan, Rezaul Mahmood, Natalie Umphlett, Erin M.K. Haacker, Chittaranjan Ray, Bill Sorensen, Martha Shulski, Crystal J. Stiles, David Pearson, Paul Fajman

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

During early 2019, a series of events set the stage for devastating floods in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota. When the floodwaters hit, dams and levees failed, cutting off towns, while destroying roads, bridges, and rail lines, further exacerbating the crisis. Lives were lost and thousands of cattle were stranded. Estimates indicate that the cost of the flooding has topped $3 billion as of August 2019, with this number expected to rise.

After a warm and wet start to winter, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota endured anomalously low temperatures and record-breaking snowfall. By March …

Soil Microbes Trade-Off Biogeochemical Cycling For Stress Tolerance Traits In Response To Year-Round Climate Change, Maria O. Garcia, Pamela H. Templer, Patrick O. Sorensen, Rebecca Sanders-Demott, Peter M. Groffman, Jennifer M. Bhatnagar

Advanced Science Research Center

Winter air temperatures are rising faster than summer air temperatures in high-latitude forests, increasing the frequency of soil freeze/thaw events in winter. To determine how climate warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles affect soil microbial communities and the ecosystem processes they drive, we leveraged the Climate Change across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States, where replicate field plots receive one of three climate treatments: warming (+5°C above ambient in the growing season), warming in the growing season + winter freeze/thaw cycles (+5°C above ambient +4 freeze/thaw cycles during winter), and no treatment. Soil …

Refining Interpretations Of A Deglacial Record In Gulf Of Mexico Marine Sediment Cores Using Foraminifera C-14 Dates And Multi-Proxy Sediment Analyses, Lindsey R. Monito

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

The upper fourteen sections of three cores recovered from the International Marine Past Global Changes Study (IMAGES) VIII/Paleoceanography of the Atlantic and Geochemistry (PAGE) 127 expedition of 2002, are stratigraphic records of the climate and provenance variations that influenced sediment deposition in the Gulf of Mexico during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Though originally cored by the USGS for gas hydrate investigations, cores MD02-2535, MD02-2555, and MD02-2560 have been repurposed for undergraduate course-based paleoclimate research at JMU. Shipboard interpretations of the color reflectance data for these cores suggested that two dark stratigraphic intervals present in all of the cores were regional …

Building Adaptive Capacity In Tribal Communities Of The Missouri River Basin To Manage Drought And Climate Extremes: A Case Study From The Wind River Indian Reservation, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie Umphlett, Mitch Cottenoir

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Native American peoples of the Northern and Central Plains have long endured harsh climate conditions, such as floods and droughts, and they possess valuable traditional knowledges that have enhanced their resilience to these extreme events. However, in recent times, limited capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate combined with a lack of resources have increased tribes’ vulnerability to climate extremes and their associated impacts. In response, a number of projects have been developed to assist tribes with their self-identified climate- and drought-related needs, particularly in the context of on-reservation decision-making. In this case study, we present an engagement strategy …

Analyzing The Effects Of Of Seasonal Land Cover And Precipitation On The Sediment Delivery Ratio Of An Agriculture Dominated Watershed., Jonah Liebman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Soil erosion is of escalating importance as increasing population and climate change have put increasing pressures on agricultural food production. Vegetation and precipitation are two factors that control the amount of soil erosion extant within a region. Sediment delivery ratios (SDRs) assess the ratio of soil eroded from a watershed system that is permanently removed from the system through stream sediment discharge. Using 1) river discharge and sediment concentration data and 2) the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), this thesis analyzes fluctuations in monthly SDRs for an average hydroclimatological crop-harvest season for the Senachwine Creek watershed, IL. Through calculating …

Droughtscape, Spring 2020, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2020

Climate Change Effects On Volcanoes In The Tropics: A Review Of The Deglaciation Of Antisana And Its Effects On Subsequent Water Streams And Rivers Over 20 Years, Callie C. Rominger

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Located in the Northern end of Ecuador lies the stunning glacier of Antisana which attracts many tourists and whose runoff provides a significant amount of water supply for Quito. Climate change is posing threats to many ecosystems world wide but will have a more substantial impact on the volcanoes in the tropics because they do not have a seasonally altered climate. Small changes in the air temperature can have larger impacts on these areas that are adapted to constant temperatures with seasonal precipitation changes. Climate change, in recent years, had caused an increase in the glacial retreat of the Antisana …

Changing Water Resources’ Effect On Livelihoods And Socio-Ecological Relationships In Himalayan Communities Of Nepal, Luke Bazemore

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The looming threat of climate change will lead to significant alterations in livelihoods and daily practices for individuals across the world. This paper seeks to identify the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes in Himalayan communities in Nepal with particular focus towards livelihood and socio-ecological transformations. Using the socio-ecological systems framework to analyze specific communities and their resource use, along with vulnerability and adaptative capacity analysis, this paper includes a meta-analysis of existing literature. Numerous findings indicated that rural, mountainous communities of Nepal face a variety of environmental impacts which may reduce viability of two significant modes of production: …

La Relación Entre Cambio Climático Y Migración En Los Andes De Perú: Los Q’Ero, Taquile Y La Cordillera Blanca, Sam Hosmer-Quint

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

El cambio climático es uno de los problemas más grandes en el mundo. Los afectos de los cambios serán más graves para las personas más pobres y vulnerables. Perú es reconocido como uno de los países más vulnerables en el mundo, a causa de la presencia de glaciares tropicales, las cual son muy vulnerables a la desglaciación. Los efectos de cambio climático incluyen, entre otras cosas; el cambio de la temporada de lluvias y sequias, un aumento de la temperatura ambiental, inundaciones y tormentas severas. Todos estos factores hacen del cambio climático un riesgo para mucha gente y además, tiene …

What Is The Most Threatening Disaster To The Continental United States?, Aaron Spomer, Elijah Kaufman, Julisa Prieto-Garcia, Brooke Aschwanden

UNO Student Research and Creative Activity Fair

Our goal for our project is to fully understand which natural disaster is the most destructive to the United States. We have chosen to compare hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, wildfires, earthquakes, and nor’easters. We have researched the cost of the total damage and repair, how the warning systems have improved over time, the death tolls from each, and also the frequency at which each one occurs. Each group member will research a different disaster impact, and the data will create a comprehensive view of the level of devastation each disaster has. We collected data all the way from the early 1900s …

Utilizing Objective Drought Severity Thresholds To Improve Drought Monitoring, Zachary T. Leasor, Steven M. Quiring, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a prominent climatic hazard in the south-central United States. Drought severity is frequently classified using the categories established by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). This study evaluates whether the thresholds for the standardized precipitation index (SPI) used by the USDM accurately classify drought severity. This study uses the SPI based on PRISM precipitation data from 1900 to 2015 to evaluate drought severity in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The results show that the fixed SPI thresholds for the USDM drought categories may lead to a systematic underestimation of drought severity in arid regions. To address this issue, objective drought …

Rockhounding, Seafaring, And Other Material Tales For The End Of The World, Noemie Fortin

The Goose

In the face of accelerated environmental degradation and climate instability, the future of the Earth and of all life on earth is difficult to visualize. Therefore, the different mediums through which we consider environmental issues are just as important as the actions we take to address them. Focusing on three projects combining art, science, and activism, this article suggests a compilation of material tales. They tell stories of plastic rocks and aluminum nuggets where the protagonists are partly finely crafted objects, partly waste materials, and sometimes both at once. Artists Kelly Jazvac, Yesenia Thibeault-Picazo, and the collective Studio Swine collaborate …