Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Investigating The Uncertainties Of Forecasting Ne Cold Season Precipitation In Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Yanna Chen

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

A major winter storm on March 2, 2018, posed significant challenges in predicting precipitation type (P-type) in the northeast U.S., particularly the Hudson Valley. While National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts predicted a mix of rain and snow, observations showed predominantly snow, with errors in snow depth forecasts of 8-12 inches near Albany.

This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate how model physics (microphysics, cumulus, boundary layer, and radiation schemes) and domain configuration influenced snow depth predictions. Results revealed significant sensitivities to cumulus and radiation schemes, as well as the vertical resolution in the middle troposphere. …

Using Airborne Measurements To Evaluate Forecasts Of Freezing Drizzle Aloft Results From The Wintre-Mix Field Campaign, Megan Schiede

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Icing associated with the accretion of supercooled large droplets (SLD) serves as a significant hazard to aviation activities. Forecasting SLD events is complex due in part to the limitations of numerical weather prediction models. The Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) aimed to comprehend such limitations within numerical forecasts of precipitation type (p-type) through the use of extensive observations during events with multiple p-types. To investigate precipitation processes aloft in winter storms with near-freezing surface conditions, research flights were orchestrated with the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 aircraft. This study examines a WINTRE-MIX intensive observing period that took …

A Comparison Of Arctic And Atlantic Basin Cyclone Predictability From A Climatology And Case Study Perspective, Peyton Capute

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Arctic cyclones (ACs) can transport warm, moist air into the Arctic region, which combined with strong winds may lead to rapid declines in sea ice during the summer. As a consequence, accurate sea ice predictions during the summer may rely on being able to predict cyclone-related wind speed and direction, which critically depends on the cyclone track and intensity. Despite this, there are relatively few studies that have documented the predictability of ACs during the summer, beyond a few case studies. In addition, there has been no extensive comparison of whether these cyclones are more or less predictable relative to …

Understanding Local And Large-Scale Drivers Of Rainfall Variability And Change Over The Hawaiian Islands Region, Katrina Fandrich

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Hawaiian rainfall variability is strongly influenced by anthropogenic climate change and natural variability (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). For local decision-makers and resource managers, understanding the drivers of rainfall variability and change in Hawai‘i is crucial for climate adaptation and mitigation planning. Previous studies have applied statistical and dynamical downscaling to produce high-resolution rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands region. However, to date, downscaling has only been used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late-century rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands. For regions like Hawai’i, that are highly vulnerable …

Predictability Of Downslope Windstorms And Mechanisms Controlling Their Onset, Matthew James Brewer

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Downslope windstorms in the western United States often contribute to the ignition and ex- acerbation of existing wildfires due to their hot, dry, and gusty nature. Accurate forecasts of these windstorms are imperative for mitigating wildfire risk. However, forecasting downslope windstorms remains challenging due to their sensitivity to environmental conditions.

The Sundowner Windstorms of the Santa Barbara, California region have been asso- ciated with many large wildfires in the area. This study analyzes special observations from the Sundowner Wind Experiment field campaign to better understand the diurnal cycle of these windstorms. Analysis of the strongest windstorm during the campaign indicates …

Sources And Significance Of Symmetric Instability In The Outflow Layer Of Tropical Cyclones, Minghao Zhou

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The tropical cyclone (TC) outflow layer is an integral part of the TC transverse circulation: warm and moist air converges in the boundary layer of the TC; rising motion and condensational heating occur in the TC eyewall and rainbands; the TC warm core and divergent anticyclone establish in the mid-upper troposphere, with the mass imported into the TC center exported away through outflow near the tropopause.

A series of state-of-the-art numerical simulations were utilized to investigate different scenarios of TC outflow evolution, from an idealized axisymmetric setup to a semi-idealized asymmetric setup, to a real-case setup of TC–trough interaction. Large …

The Importance Of Ice Microphysics In Storm Electrification, Yichen Cai

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Evanescent but powerful, lightning is the vast scale release of storm energy from accumulation of minuscule cloud particle interactions. Although lightning occurrence seems random, thunderstorms “electrify” themselves in methodical ways and show structured patterns. This study explores the role of ice microphysics in thunderstorm charging and discharge through numerical simulation.

A squall line has been simulated ideally and realistically with generally consistent conclusions. Drastically different amount of lightning was produced when using three different microphysical models: Depending on the choice of charging scheme, the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) two-moment model appropriately captures or overestimate the amount observed by the …