Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

A Multi-Century Reconstruction Of Sea Surface Temperature, Salinity, And Density From A Northern Red Sea Coral., Daliza Nanette Rivera-Matos

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The Red Sea Outflow Water (RSOW), an intermediate water mass formed in the northern Red Sea, is a primary Red Sea water circulation process. Understanding these water circulation processes gives us an insight into this region's climate dynamics. The intermediate water formation is one of the main processes of the water circulation in the northern Red Sea and feeds the Indian Ocean with saltier and colder water. Despite understanding the RSWO's association with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), its historical response to this climate mode remains unclear. There has not been a long-term record to analyze the relationship between the …

Understanding Variations And Trends In Convection Over The Congo Basin From A Diurnal Perspective, Kathrin Alber

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Tropical rainforests regulate global and regional climate systems and play a vital role in the world’s water and carbon cycles. The Congo Basin, situated in central equatorial Africa, is home to the second largest rainforest on the planet and is one of the most convective regions in the world. Recent studies indicate that a large-scale and long-term drying trend, characterized by an increase in dry season length, a decrease in forest greenness, and a decrease in precipitation, has been stressing the region since the 1980’s. Despite the alarming drying trend and the Congo’s important role in the planetary circulation and …

The Impact Of Wildfire Activities On Air Quality And Solar Energy In New York And California, Chin-An Lin

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

An increasing trend of wildfire activity over North America over the past decades has been observed. Elevated surface fine mode particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and reduction of solar radiation during the smoke episodes have been widely reported. Given that the intensity and frequency of wildfires are expected to increase under changing climate, the impact of smoke aerosols on air quality and solar energy could become more significant. This study aims to characterize the transport of smoke aerosols and quantify their impact on local air quality and solar energy over New York (NY) and California (CA) States. A multi-year analysis of …

Cultural And Environmental Change In A Period Of Westernized Tourism: Bali, Indonesia, Barbara Buck

ALL - Honors Theses

Dutch colonizers opened Bali for tourism at the beginning of the 20th century, and since that time tourism has led to changes in Bali’s culture, environment, and local resources. In the late 1900s, tourism grew to a new level, which resulted in a shift of industry control away from Balinese people. This project examines the problem of tourism from a social and environmental science lens. By compiling literature and science from various fields of study, this project aims to illustrate the complexity of Bali’s tourism problem in an interdisciplinary way. The lack of local control over tourism perpetuated and exacerbated …

Categorizing The Societal Impacts From Extreme Rainfall In The New York City Metropolitan Area, Evan Belkin

ALL - Honors Theses

Numerous studies have shown that the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events have increased significantly across the contiguous United States (CONUS) over the past several decades associated with warming global temperatures. This surge in extreme rainfall has resulted in the loss of life and property within vulnerable communities due to widespread river and flash flooding. For example, 11 of the 14 fatalities in New York City associated with Tropical Cyclone Ida’s remnants in September 2021 occurred in flooded basement apartments. The creation of a scale to differentiate extreme rainfall events with higher societal impacts from those with lower impacts …

Diurnal To Seasonal Hurricane Variability And Predictability, Jeremiah Otero Piersante

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) impact extends across a range of forecast lead times. At shorter timescales, radially outward-propagating, diurnal pulses in TCs are associated with TC intensity and structure changes. At weekly periods, synoptic-scale Rossby waves influence the direction of TC tracks. At seasonal timescales, climate modes affect the overall (in)favorability of TC activity. The research shown in this dissertation seeks to improve the understanding and predictability of TC variability across these scales using numerical weather prediction, reanalysis fields, and storm track observations.Diurnal pulses associated with cloud-top cooling, so-called cooling pulses (CPs), pose a risk for hazardous weather because …

Examining The Performance Of The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model During Clear, Isolated, And Widespread Convective Days In The New York State Capital Region, Rachel A. Eldridge

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Forecasting can be more challenging in areas of complex terrain, such as in and around the valleys and mountains of Upstate New York. Biases in numerical weather prediction models, related to the lack of resolution of the terrain and errors in physical parameterizations, can affect forecasts. The main goal of this research is to assess biases in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model that could contribute to deficiencies in forecasts for days with and without convection. We investigate how the HRRR model performed in the New York Capital Region for 4 clear days, 4 isolated convective days, and 4 widespread …

Predictability Of Downslope Windstorms And Mechanisms Controlling Their Onset, Matthew James Brewer

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Downslope windstorms in the western United States often contribute to the ignition and ex- acerbation of existing wildfires due to their hot, dry, and gusty nature. Accurate forecasts of these windstorms are imperative for mitigating wildfire risk. However, forecasting downslope windstorms remains challenging due to their sensitivity to environmental conditions.

The Sundowner Windstorms of the Santa Barbara, California region have been asso- ciated with many large wildfires in the area. This study analyzes special observations from the Sundowner Wind Experiment field campaign to better understand the diurnal cycle of these windstorms. Analysis of the strongest windstorm during the campaign indicates …

Sources And Significance Of Symmetric Instability In The Outflow Layer Of Tropical Cyclones, Minghao Zhou

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The tropical cyclone (TC) outflow layer is an integral part of the TC transverse circulation: warm and moist air converges in the boundary layer of the TC; rising motion and condensational heating occur in the TC eyewall and rainbands; the TC warm core and divergent anticyclone establish in the mid-upper troposphere, with the mass imported into the TC center exported away through outflow near the tropopause.

A series of state-of-the-art numerical simulations were utilized to investigate different scenarios of TC outflow evolution, from an idealized axisymmetric setup to a semi-idealized asymmetric setup, to a real-case setup of TC–trough interaction. Large …

Investigating The Uncertainties Of Forecasting Ne Cold Season Precipitation In Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Yanna Chen

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

A major winter storm on March 2, 2018, posed significant challenges in predicting precipitation type (P-type) in the northeast U.S., particularly the Hudson Valley. While National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts predicted a mix of rain and snow, observations showed predominantly snow, with errors in snow depth forecasts of 8-12 inches near Albany.

This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate how model physics (microphysics, cumulus, boundary layer, and radiation schemes) and domain configuration influenced snow depth predictions. Results revealed significant sensitivities to cumulus and radiation schemes, as well as the vertical resolution in the middle troposphere. …

A Comparison Of Arctic And Atlantic Basin Cyclone Predictability From A Climatology And Case Study Perspective, Peyton Capute

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Arctic cyclones (ACs) can transport warm, moist air into the Arctic region, which combined with strong winds may lead to rapid declines in sea ice during the summer. As a consequence, accurate sea ice predictions during the summer may rely on being able to predict cyclone-related wind speed and direction, which critically depends on the cyclone track and intensity. Despite this, there are relatively few studies that have documented the predictability of ACs during the summer, beyond a few case studies. In addition, there has been no extensive comparison of whether these cyclones are more or less predictable relative to …

Using Airborne Measurements To Evaluate Forecasts Of Freezing Drizzle Aloft Results From The Wintre-Mix Field Campaign, Megan Schiede

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Icing associated with the accretion of supercooled large droplets (SLD) serves as a significant hazard to aviation activities. Forecasting SLD events is complex due in part to the limitations of numerical weather prediction models. The Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) aimed to comprehend such limitations within numerical forecasts of precipitation type (p-type) through the use of extensive observations during events with multiple p-types. To investigate precipitation processes aloft in winter storms with near-freezing surface conditions, research flights were orchestrated with the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 aircraft. This study examines a WINTRE-MIX intensive observing period that took …

Understanding Local And Large-Scale Drivers Of Rainfall Variability And Change Over The Hawaiian Islands Region, Katrina Fandrich

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Hawaiian rainfall variability is strongly influenced by anthropogenic climate change and natural variability (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). For local decision-makers and resource managers, understanding the drivers of rainfall variability and change in Hawai‘i is crucial for climate adaptation and mitigation planning. Previous studies have applied statistical and dynamical downscaling to produce high-resolution rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands region. However, to date, downscaling has only been used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late-century rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands. For regions like Hawai’i, that are highly vulnerable …

The Importance Of Ice Microphysics In Storm Electrification, Yichen Cai

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Evanescent but powerful, lightning is the vast scale release of storm energy from accumulation of minuscule cloud particle interactions. Although lightning occurrence seems random, thunderstorms “electrify” themselves in methodical ways and show structured patterns. This study explores the role of ice microphysics in thunderstorm charging and discharge through numerical simulation.

A squall line has been simulated ideally and realistically with generally consistent conclusions. Drastically different amount of lightning was produced when using three different microphysical models: Depending on the choice of charging scheme, the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) two-moment model appropriately captures or overestimate the amount observed by the …

An Investigation Into Past And Future Freezing Level Height And Equilibrium Line Altitude In The Tropical Andes Using Cmip6, Shelby Turner

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The freezing level height (FLH) in the tropical Andes has increased over the past several decades, as is evident with the receding of alpine glaciers in this region. The accuracy of Global Climate Models (GCMs)—specifically previous generations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)—in this region remains an issue, as the complex terrain and climate characteristics are difficult to simulate realistically. The changes seen in these tropical alpine glaciers in the past few decades are a clear indicator of the effects climate change is having in this tropical mountain region, making it important to better understand current and projected future …

Characterizing And Understanding Orographic Precipitation Over The Mountains Of Extratropical South America, Yazmina Rojas Beltran

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Extratropical South-America (30-40°S) varies significantly in topography, including a coastal mountain range with elevation from 700-1300 m, a central valley, and the Andes, with elevation from 1000-2500 m on the western side of the continent. The topography of the area can disrupt frontal systems approaching from the Pacific Ocean, leading to enhanced orographic precipitation over the windward slope of the Andes and a sharp rain shadow, with less precipitation in the leeside. These phenomena are also observed over the coastal mountains of south-central Chile. The main goals of this study are to characterize and understand orographic precipitation and rain shadow …

An Analysis Of The Predictability Of The February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak At S2s Timescales, Grace Dines

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The February 2021 cold air outbreak (CAO) brought long-lasting, freezing temperatures and extreme winter weather to the United States and Canada. The event resulted in major societal and economic impacts, including millions of power outages, hundreds of fatalities, and approximately $25 billion in losses. This thesis first analyzes the synoptic evolution of this CAO in order to explain how Arctic air arrived and stalled over central North America. Given the synoptic context, the analysis next considers the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability of this CAO by examining S2S ensemble model predictions from both high-top and low-top models. The S2S predictability analysis is …

An Evaluation Of High-Resolution Model Simulations Of Orographic Precipitation, Snowpack, Atmospheric Rivers, And Their Climate Sensitivities In The Southern Andes, Erin Potter

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Orographic precipitation and snowpack are important for water resources and hydrometeorological hazards in the Andes Mountain range. As the climate warms, South American atmospheric rivers (ARs) are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, leading to increased orographic precipitation. Improved understanding of orographic precipitation and snowpack, and their association with ARs, in a warming climate is needed to provide a foundation for understanding future hydroclimate change over the Andes. The goal of this research is to evaluate how well variations in high-resolution regional climate simulations over the southern Andes (30-55°S), agree with observations of (1) orographic precipitation and (2) snowpack …

The Development Of A Statistical Postprocessing Algorithm By Two-Step Space-Time Eof Analysis, William David Stikeleather

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Model prediction for extended range forecasts is fraught with shortcomings that generate forecast error and decrease skill. Biases in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models generate patterns of error that grow larger with time. These inherent biases systematically alter the modeled positioning of atmospheric features that emerge as synoptic or subseasonal error. While individual weather events and anomalous patterns will generate model noise, it is computationally possible to separate the signal behind this error from noise. For 200 hPa Geopotential Height (Z200), systematic biases in model forecasts often manifest themselves as errors in atmospheric wave patterns in the high latitudes, including …

Communicating About Extreme Heat: Results From Card Sorting And Think Aloud Interviews With Experts From Differing Domains, Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh, Savannah Olivas

Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security, and Cybersecurity Faculty Scholarship

Climate trends indicate that extreme heat events are becoming more common and more severe over time, requiring improved strategies to communicate heat risk and protective actions. However, there exists a disconnect in heat-related communication from experts, who commonly include heat related jargon (i.e., technical language), to decision makers and the general public. The use of jargon has been shown to reduce meaningful engagement with and understanding of messages written by experts. Translating technical language into comprehensible messages that encourage decision makers to take action has been identified as a priority to enable impact-based decision support. Knowing what concepts and terms …

Using Stochastic Physics Perturbations In Ensemble Forecasts To Investigate Predictability Of Mesoscale Winter Precipitation Events, William Massey Bartolini

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Accurate winter precipitation forecasts are difficult due to factors influencing precipitation amounts and precipitation types including numerical weather prediction biases. In particular, large forecast errors can arise due to uncertainties in parameterized processes, especially those related to microphysics and turbulence. Many winter weather impacts are due to mesoscale precipitation features that are better represented in convection-permitting model forecasts. One way to account for model physics uncertainty is to design convection-permitting ensembles using stochastic physics methods. For example, stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) varies parameters within individual schemes. SPP methods can be combined with varied initial and boundary conditions (ICs/BCs) to represent …

The Impacts Of Atlantic And Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability On South American And Arctic Climate, Zhaoxiangrui He

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations mainly include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual timescales and Pacific multidecadal variability (PMV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on decadal-interdecadal timescales. Understanding their impacts on South American and Arctic climate is crucial for studying climate variability and helpful to constrain climate model projections for these regions on multidecadal timescales. Prior studies focused mainly on their impacts on global climate, but multidecadal impacts on South American climate are poorly understood due to the lack of long observational records. Furthermore, earlier research investigated primarily the isolated impacts on global climate from the Atlantic …

Assimilating New York State Mesonet Observations For A Summertime Convective Event, Hsiao-Chun Lin

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In New York State (NYS), the prediction of high-impact severe weather event has presented a challenging forecasting problem. The NYS Mesonet (NYSM) has the potential to improve the severe weather forecasting through its continuous in situ and remote sensing measurements on the lower troposphere. The dense observing network can capture the evolution of mesoscale motions with high temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of this dissertation are (1) to assess whether the assimilation of NYSM observations into numerical weather prediction models could improve model analysis and short-term weather forecasting, and (2) to figure out the important key factor and physical …

Understanding Precipitation Dynamics Of Southern China Through Isotope Analysis Of Lake Yilong Sediments And Other Regional Records, Angelena N. Campisi

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The delivery of monsoonal precipitation in the face of climate change is a growing concern, especially within regions with high population density and a corresponding demand for freshwater resources. Within these regions, the monsoon season can deliver more than half of the annual freshwater for the area. Regional climate dynamics controlling these precipitation patterns within the Holocene (11.7 kyr BP−present) are poorly understood and difficult to differentiate within a single climate proxy from a single site. However, by cross referencing different proxies within a given region we can begin to discern general trends in precipitation dynamics on centennial and multi−centennial …

The Effects Of Ep And Cp Enso Phases During Different Seasons On The First Four Dominant Modes Of The Mjo, Suphanat Maneesai

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual climate mode that is dominant in tropical Pacific and affects regional and global weather and climate. Some may categorize ENSO into two types – eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO) and central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO). Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant intraseasonal mode in the tropics that impacts regional and global weather. Previous studies have established relationships between ENSO and MJO. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was performed to retrieve the principal components (PCs), instead of filtering atmospheric data, to approximately trace the MJO to analyze its relationship with ENSO. An …

The Simulated Sensitivity Of The North American Monsoon At Convection-Permitting Scales, Brendan Wallace

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The North American Monsoon (NAM) is a major contributor to annual rainfall for large portions of the North American Southwest. Much of the prior work examining the NAM using numerical models has been done at scales exceeding 20-km grid spacing. At these coarse scales, unresolved processes and poorly resolved geographic features can impact model performance. This can present a problem when simulating the NAM particularly with regard to orographic precipitation, precipitation on sub-daily timescales, and land surface-atmosphere interactions. This dissertation seeks to better understand the NAM through examination of several sets of convection-permitting regional climate model output. The primary goal …

Comparison Of 2018-2021 Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Before And After Noaa G-Iv Missions, Melissa Piper

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Tropical cyclone (TC) hazards are primarily dictated by the TC position; thus, it is important to produce accurate TC track forecasts. Many different features can influence a TC’s motion, yet these features are not always well sampled by in-situ observations over the open ocean, creating a need for supplemental observation collected via aircraft, including the deployment of dropsondes. In 1997, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began operational synoptic surveillance missions in the near-storm environments of TCs using the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft (G-IV), with the goal of reducing track forecast errors. In the first 10 years of operational missions, the …

Large-Scale Flow Patterns Conducive To Central American Extreme Precipitation Events During Autumn, Alexander Kyle Mitchell

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs), characterized by daily widespread heavy rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile across Central America, can have large impacts on agriculture, life, and property during the rainy season. EPEs during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) autumn, however, have been observed to be influenced by both tropical and extratropical originating phenomena such as easterly waves and cold surges, respectively. Given the limited research in this area, the novelty of this work is to apply a systematic approach for identifying and better understanding EPEs, and investigating their associated synoptic-scale variability using daily high-resolution observations and reanalysis products over Central America. An …

A Composite Analysis Of Summer Afternoon Heavy Precipitation Events In The Taipei Basin Under Weak Synoptic Forcing And Pm2.5 Changes, Cidny Ramirez Martinez

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Taipei, Taiwan is a city affected by various types of precipitation. However, one of the most impactful short-term sources of precipitation is afternoon thunderstorms. Understanding the trends of these afternoon thunderstorms and the extent to which PM2.5 impacts precipitation totals is imperative for improving forecasting and developing urban infrastructure that can deal with said totals.

Probabilistic Forecasting Of Winter Mixed Precipitation Types In New York State Utilizing A Random Forest, Brian Chandler Filipiak

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Operational forecasters face a plethora of challenges when making a forecast; they must consider multiple data sources ranging from radar and satellites to surface and upper air observations, to numerical weather prediction output. Forecasts must be done in a limited window of time, which adds an additional layer of difficulty to the task. These challenges are exacerbated by winter mixed precipitation events where slight differences in thermodynamic profiles or changes in terrain create different precipitation types across small areas. In addition to being difficult to forecast, mixed precipitation events can have large-scale impacts on our society.