Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

The Relationship Between Tropospheric Synoptic-Scale Events, Vertical Wave Activity Flux, And Sudden Stratospheric Warmings In The Boreal Winter, Hannah Elizabeth Attard

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Rapid breakdowns of the climatological mid-winter stratospheric polar vortex [i.e., sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs)] are often preceded by tropospheric blocks. While some studies suggest that blocks can induce the upward wave activity flux (WAF) through the tropopause region that is necessary to trigger an SSW, other studies show no statistical relationship between tropospheric blocks and SSWs. One objective of this dissertation is to elucidate the dynamical relationship between tropospheric blocks and SSWs by exploring the relationship between blocks and tropopause-level upward WAF. Along with analyzing blocks, this dissertation also explores rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones (i.e., bombs) and tropical cyclones that …

Understanding Large Wind Farm Impacts On Regional Climate And Vegetation Growth From Observational And Modeling Perspectives, Geng Xia

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In the most recent decade, wind energy has experienced exponential growth worldwide and this rapid increase is expected to continue, particularly over farmlands in the United States. This poses an important question regarding whether the widespread deployment of wind turbines (WTs) will influence surface/near-surface microclimate and vegetation growth. In this dissertation, I investigate the potential wind farm (WF) impacts on regional climate and vegetation growth from both observational and modeling perspectives. High resolution satellite, radiosonde and field observations are used to determine the magnitude and variability of WF-induced changes on surface/near-surface temperatures while the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model …

Field Evaluation Of Portable Air Quality Monitors And Evaluation Of Short-Lived Plume Events Of Atmospheric Pollutants, Joseph Peter Marto

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Availability of low cost optical sensors has allowed for the supplementation of existing air quality infrastructure with portable, adaptive monitors. While these sensors generally cannot offer the same accuracy and precision as established analysis methods, they can still reliably detect changes in pollutant concentration. This study evaluates the performance of two portable air quality enclosures deployed at collocated research sites to determine their accuracy and usefulness in field deployments. One system deployed collocated sensors for measurement of particulate matter mass concentration (Thermo pDR 1500 and TSI DustTrak DRX for PM2.5) and the second system deployed sensors for measurement of black …

Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification In Environments Of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs : Environmental Influences And Convective Characteristics, Michael Fischer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones that undergo a period of rapid intensification are particularly susceptible to large errors. For those storms that interact with an upper-tropospheric trough, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are complicated, as upper-tropospheric troughs can provide unique intensification mechanisms, but are often associated with unfavorable environmental conditions. Although tropical cyclones in environments with nearby upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with lesser intensification rates than tropical cyclones in environments devoid of upper-tropospheric troughs, some tropical cyclone--trough interactions are associated with a period of rapid intensification. This dissertation utilizes reanalysis output, satellite observations, and ensemble modeling simulations to understand whether rapid …

Global Response To The Madden-Julian Oscillation As A Function Of Phase Speed In Era-Interim Reanalysis And Miroc5 Model Data, Kaitlyn Krzyzaniak

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Many authors state that the phase speed of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is near 5ms–1, but observations suggest it varies considerably. MJO propagation typically sets off Rossby wave trains that interact with and alter this extratropical pattern; however, differences in the MJO phase speed could alter the Rossby wave response, leading to a unique response in the extratropics. An understanding of the mechanisms and extratropical responses to variable MJO phase speeds would provide innovative and invaluable insight for subseasonal forecasting.

The Upper-Level Turbulence, Static Stability And Tropopause Structure Of Tropical Cyclones, Patrick Duran

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Upper-tropospheric thermodynamic processes can play an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) structure and evolution. Despite its importance, until recently few in-situ observations were available in the upper levels of TCs. Two recent field campaigns -- the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment -- provided a wealth of high-altitude observations within TCs. These observations revealed that the upper-level static stability and tropopause structure of TCs can change dramatically with both space and time.

An Analysis Of The Linkages Between Large-Scale Flow Regime Transitions On The Spatiotemporal Distribution Of Clustered Extratropical Cyclone Events Over The Northern Hemisphere, Eric Merton John Bunker

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

An Analysis of the Linkages Between Large-Scale Flow Regime Transitions on the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Clustered Extratropical Cyclone Events over the Northern Hemisphere

What Affects The Phase Speed Of Madden-Julian Oscillation Convection, Robert Setzenfand

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main source of convective and circulation variability on intraseasonal timescales and planetary spatial scales within the tropics. Although the phase speed of the MJO convective envelope is often stated as 5 m s–1, MJO events that occur over the Indo-Pacific warm pool can have a range of phase speeds. This study uses a wavelet to identify MJO convective events with specified phase speeds in a satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) dataset during boreal winter. The wavelet-filtered OLR index is then regressed against basic meteorological variables to extract information about MJO events or signals propagating …

Predictability Of African Easterly Waves In An Operational Ensemble Prediction System, Travis J. Elless

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

African easterly waves (AEWs) are the primary synoptic-scale weather feature found in sub-Saharan Africa during boreal summer. Many studies have used observations and idealized models to highlight processes associated with the movement and growth of AEWs, yet there have been few studies documenting the performance of operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for these phenomena. Here, the predictability of AEWs in ECMWF EPS forecasts is assessed during two periods of enhanced AEW activity (July--September 2007--2009 and 2011--2013). Specifically, AEW predictability is analyzed through three main areas of focus: 1) verifying AEW position and intensity forecasts, and assessing their relation to convective …

Projected Changes In Climate, Elevation-Dependent Warming, And Extreme Events Over Continental Ecuador For The Period 2041-2070, Oscar Chimborazo

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The climate over Ecuador is complex due to several interacting factors, such as its location at the equator, the Andean topography, and several modes of internal variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affecting the region. In addition, the rapid increase in greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to affect both the mean state and climate variability in Ecuador over the coming decades. Hence, a thorough understanding of both natural and anthropogenic forcings and how they combine to influence Ecuadorian climate is a necessity for decision-making and implementation of adequate adaptation measures. However, the lack of observational data, both in space …

Whole-Canopy Net Ecosystem Exchange And Water Use Efficiency In An Intermittent-Light Environment -- Dynamic Approach, Sergey Nikolayevich Kivalov

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

An observed 20-30% increase in forest net ecosystem exchange (NEE) on partly cloudy days is often attributed to there being more uniform canopy illumination by diffuse radiation when clouds are present. However, the sky on such days is typically populated by fair-weather cumulus clouds, bringing dynamically changing shadow-to-light conditions on the order of minutes to the forest, with radiation alternating from 1000 W m^-2 in the clear sky to less than 400 W m^-2 in under-cloud shadows. These dynamically changing conditions cannot be investigated by the conventional time-averaged eddy-covariance flux method, which requires nearly steady-state turbulent conditions over much longer …

Informing Responders Using Gis And Gps, Deidre Mccarthy

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Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast in August 2005 and created the single largest disaster for cultural resources that the United States has witnessed since the inception of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) in 1966. Notably, the NHPA created the National Register of Historic Places, our nation’s catalog of important cultural resources. The NHPA also stipulates that any federal undertaking which may adversely affect National Register eligible resources be mitigated. For the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Katrina created the largest compliance project ever under Section 106 of the NHPA.

Although causing a great deal of damage, Katrina also …

Keynote Address: Climate Change: From Global To New York Scale, Christopher D. Thorncroft

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This talk is concerned with the science and impacts of climate change from global to New York scales. It will provide an assessment of how the climate has changed over the past Century based on a purely observational perspective. The scientific basis for anthroprogenic climate change will be explained and discussed including a description of the “greenhouse effect” and why it is important for life on this planet. We will briefly discuss global and local consequences of a warmer climate and what we need to be prepared for going forward in the coming decades.

A Climatological And Multiscale Analysis Of Cold Air Outbreaks In The Northeast United States, Zachary Baker Murphy

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The results of a climatological and multiscale analysis of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) that impacted the Northeast U.S. during 1948–2015 are presented. This climatological and multiscale analysis was based on daily minimum temperature data extracted from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily dataset for 53 stations that were distributed throughout nine climate regions defined by the NCEI. A CAO is diagnosed whenever two or more stations within an NCEI climate region experience three or more consecutive days where the daily minimum temperatures at a station fall below the 31-day centered moving average of the fifth …

Understanding Climatic Adjustments To Variations In Tropical Ocean Heat Transport, Michael Cameron Rencurrel

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

One of the outstanding problems within the climate community has been how to reconcile the geological proxy records of past warm, equable climates, characterized by both an increase in the global mean surface temperature and a decrease in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient, with numerical simulations of the same period. Recent work has shown that tectonic driven changes in the meridional ocean heat transport (OHT) may have played a signicant role in the warming. Here, we study the adjustment of the climate to variations in OHT using a suite of slab-ocean aquaplanet GCM simulations spanning 24 different imposed variations in OHT …

Hurricane Bonnie (1998) : Maintaining Intensity During High Vertical Wind Shear And An Eyewall Replacement Cycle, Erin Dougherty

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Hurricane Bonnie (1998) was an unusually resilient hurricane that maintained intensity in 12–16 ms-1 vertical wind shear and during an eyewall replacement cycle from 23 – 25 August. This remarkable behavior was examined using observations from flight-level data, microwave imagery, radar, and dropsondes over the two-day period. The symmetric and asymmetric aspects of Bonnie’s eyewall replacement cycle were documented and compared to eyewall replacement cycles in other hurricanes. Similar to other observed eyewall replacement cycles, Bonnie exhibited the development, strengthening, and dominance of a secondary eyewall while a primary eyewall decayed. However, Bonnie’s structure was highly asymmetric due to strong …

A Synoptic Climatology Of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events, Kyle James Pallozzi

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further.

Rossby Wave Breaking And Widespread Extreme Precipitation Events In The Central And Eastern U.S, Benjamin John Moore

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This dissertation examines climatological and dynamical linkages between widespread extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the central and eastern U.S. and Rossby wave breaking (RWB), and assesses forecast skill for EPEs occurring in conjunction with RWB. The analysis primarily focuses on linkages of EPEs to LC1 (anticyclonic) and LC2 (cyclonic) RWB.

Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

As tropical cyclones (TCs) move into the midlatitudes, they are often associated with extensive heavy precipitation. This precipitation can lead to widespread flooding events, such as occurred with Hurricane Irene (2011) over the northeastern United States. Despite the high-impact nature of these events, there are relatively few studies that explore the sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to model initial conditions, beyond focusing on the variability in forecast TC track.

Influence Of Volcanic Eruptions On Tropical Hydroclimate During The Last Millennium, Christopher Colose

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Volcanic eruptions exert the most important radiative forcing on Earth’s climate during the pre-industrial interval of the last millennium. In this thesis, I investigate the role of volcanic eruptions in altering tropical climate, including temperature and rainfall. I primarily use forced transient simulations of the last millennium as a tool to explore how explosive volcanic events project onto the hydrologic cycle, as well as the imprint of water isotopologues (H216O, H218O) associated with rainfall. Attention is given to the South American continent specifically (in chapter 2), and to the entire tropics (in chapter 3).

Climate Fingerprints Of The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Bo Dong

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is a multi-decadal quasi-oscillation seen primarily in tropical and extratropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interacting with the atmosphere, the IPO has been shown to affect global and regional climate. However, a quantitative global synthesis of the IPO’s climate fingerprints and the underlying mechanisms are still lacking. Based on observational and reanalysis data and atmospheric model simulations, this dissertation investigates the IPO’s influence on regional climates over the globe, and its interactions with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming.

Turbulence In The Upper Levels Of Tropical Cyclones, Michaela Leigh Rosenmayer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Turbulence in the cirrus canopy of tropical cyclones (TCs) can give an indication about the physical processes that occur in this expansive cloud deck. The low stability and/or large shear that likely coincides with turbulent layers can be produced by radiative forcing, convective forcing, and sublimation of frozen precipitation from the cirrus canopy. As a result, turbulence in the cirrus canopy can give an indication about the impact of various physical processes in tropical cyclones.

A Multiscale Analysis Of Major Transition Season Northeast Snowstorms, Rebecca Blair Steeves

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Major transition season Northeast snowstorms have the potential to cause widespread socioeconomic disruption in the form of transportation delays, infrastructure damage, and widespread power outages. Because heavy, wet snow tends to occur in transition season Northeast snowstorms, lesser accumulations can result in greater disruption than if the same accumulation occurred in winter season Northeast snowstorms. This study is motivated by the opportunity to improve scientific understanding and forecaster situational awareness of this class of snowstorms by means of a multiscale analysis. The multiscale analysis focuses on documenting: 1) the planetary-to-synoptic-scale flow patterns occurring prior to and during major transition season …

Linkages Between Tropopause Polar Vortices And The Development Of Cold Air Outbreaks Over Central And Eastern North America, Kevin Biernat

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Coherent vortices in the vicinity of the tropopause, referred to as tropopause polar vortices (TPVs), may be extracted from high latitudes in conjunction with high-latitude upper-level ridge amplification. Once extracted, TPVs may interact with and strengthen midlatitude jet streams, as well as act as precursor disturbances for the development of intense midlatitude cyclones. Cold pools that may accompany TPVs as they are transported to middle latitudes may lead to widespread cold air outbreaks (CAOs), which may result in significant socioeconomic impacts. The purpose of this study is to investigate 1) the equatorward transport of TPVs and cold pools to middle …

Evaluation Of Lightning Jumps As A Predictor Of Severe Weather In The Northeastern United States, Pamela Eck

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Severe weather events in the northeastern United States can be challenging to forecast, given how the evolution of deep convection can be influenced by complex terrain and the lack of quality observations in complex terrain. To supplement existing observations, this study explores using lightning to forecast severe convection in areas of complex terrain in the northeastern United States. A sudden increase in lightning flash rate by two standard deviations (2σ), also known as a lightning jump, may be indicative of a strengthening updraft and an increased probability of severe weather.

Determination And Analysis Of Dscovr-Eipc Satellite-Retrieved Radiance From Cloud Geometric And Optical Properties, Emily Christine Morgan

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Using simulations and numerical fitting, this work sought to describe the satellite-retrieved radiance of clouds as a function of their thermodynamic and optical properties. Subsequently, this understanding can then be used in a look-up-table to determine the properties of clouds imaged by the EPIC sensor in the NASA DSCOVR satellite. In this study, background oxygen absorption was modeled in a radiative transfer model and convolved with EPIC filter functions for two absorption-reference pairs for Oxygen A- and B-band. This absorption profile was established as the primary vertical coordinate in this study, leveraging the similarity principle to allow for intercomparison of …

Variations In Potential Vorticity Streamer Activity : Development Pathways, Environmental Impacts, And Links To Tropical Cyclone Activity In The North Atlantic Basin, Philippe Pierre Papin

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This dissertation examines the climatological occurrence of potential vorticity streamers (PVSs) during the tropical cyclone (TC) season that occur in the upper troposphere in the North Atlantic (NATL) basin, assessing how their variations in frequency, area, and intensity impact the synoptic environment, how they are induced by different synoptic-dynamic patterns, and how they modify TC activity and genesis pathways.

The Impact Snow Albedo Feedback Over Mountain Regions As Examined Through High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Experiments Over The Rocky Mountains, Theodore Letcher

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo …

Impacts Of Internal Variability On Climate Trends In Large Ensemble Simulations By Two Climate Models, Christine Bloecker

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Internal climate variability (ICV) can influence trends in observations and model simulations over periods spanning decades, making it difficult to quantify the response of the climate system to external forcing. We analyze two large ensembles of climate simulations from 1950-2100 by two fully coupled climate models, namely the CanESM2 and CESM1, to quantify the effects of ICV on apparent trends in annual surface air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) over different time periods and regions. In comparison with observations, the CanESM2 overestimates the global T and P trends during 1979-2014 while they fall within the ICV-induced range of the CESM1. …

Sensitivity Of Meiyu Front To Aerosol Spatial Distribution Over Yangtze-Huai River Valley, Chu-Chun Huang

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The observed contrasts in both aerosol number and size associated with frequent north-polluted-south-clean (NPSC) conditions over Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV) during the Meiyu season may induce different aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions within the region causing different evolution of the Meiyu system. This aspect was studied by conducting WRF sensitivity simulations with different configurations of north-south aerosol number and size contrasts. Results show that when the Meiyu system develops at YHRV, more aerosols in the north (than the south) cause more but smaller cloud droplets to form, resulting in stronger radiative cooling at north part of the Meiyu system. Subsequently, the differential cooling …