Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Synoptic Conditions Favoring Tropical Cyclone-Enhanced Southwest Monsoon High Precipitation Events In The Philippines, Alwin Andriel L. Bathan, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

The interaction of tropical cyclones (TCs) with the southwest monsoon frequently causes heavy precipitation events (HPEs) and widespread flooding across the Philippines. Despite their substantial socio-economic impacts, the synoptic conditions that favor these events remain insufficiently understood, underscoring the need for systematic investigation to help improve forecasting and risk assessment. Lag composite analysis of daily rainfall records and reanalysis data from July to September for the period 1981–2023 shows that HPEs are more likely to occur when: (1) enhanced monsoon westerlies are present over the tropical Indian Ocean for at least nine days before the HPE, (2) a TC passes …

Lead Sources Detected In Manila's Air After The Phase-Out Of Leaded Gasoline, Grace Betito, Paola Angela Bañaga, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, James Bernard Simpas, Mengli Chen, Jariya Kayee, Armin Sorooshian, Rachel A. Braun, Alexander B. Macdonald

Ateneo Atmospheric Physics Laboratory

Abstract

The global phase-out of leaded gasoline marked a major milestone in pollution control, yet modern uses of lead (Pb) continue to pose significant health risks, especially in low- and middle-income countries. In the Philippines, significant data gaps still exist despite increasing exposure. This study presents to the best of our knowledge, the first Pb isotopic fingerprinting of atmospheric aerosols in Metro Manila, Philippines, covering fine (0.56–1 μm) and coarse (5.6–10 μm) fractions, collected in 2018–2019. Results show that local sources, mainly industrial activities (45–62 %) and fossil fuel combustion (30–45 %), are now the dominant contributors to airborne Pb, …

An Objective Method To Locate Shear Lines During The Northeast Monsoon Season In The Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

The shear line is a narrow zone of maximum horizontal wind shear, typically identified as a confluence zone of low-level wind streams. Previous studies showed that this system can trigger heavy to extreme rainfall events in the Philippines during the northeast monsoon season. However, a research gap remains in objectively identifying and locating this system. Thus, this study develops a detection method that may be used for monitoring and forecasting the location of shear lines. Results show that the gradient of meridional winds in the y-direction (∂V925hPa/∂y), the boundary layer moisture flux convergence, and the 925 hPa relative vorticity may …

Influence Of Tropical Cyclones, Southwest Monsoon, And Tropical Cyclone-Enhanced Southwest Monsoon On Rainfall Variability Over The Western Coast Of The Philippines, Alwin Bathan, Lyndon Mark Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, Joel T. Maquiling, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

This study investigates the processes driving interannual variability of rainfall over the western coast of the Philippines during the peak southwest monsoon (SWM) months (July–September) from 1961 to 2022. Specifically, it describes how tropical cyclones (TC), SWM, and TC-enhanced SWM influence SWM rainfall variability. Rainfall measurements from 11 stations along the western coast of the Philippines were classified into three types: direct TC rainfall (PD), indirect TC rainfall (PI), and SWM rainfall (PSM). The yearly contributions of PD, PI, and PSM to SWM rainfall were estimated to be 15.4 %, 33.1 %, and 51.5 %, respectively. Furthermore, four rainfall variability …

The Unique Features Of Typhoon Rai (2021): An Observational Study, Clint Eldrick R. Petilla, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, Hironori Fudeyasu, Ryuji Yoshida, Jun Matsumoto

Physics Faculty Publications

Tropical Cyclone (TC) RAI (2021) made a devastating landfall in the Siargao-Dinagat Islands of the southeastern Philippines on December 16, 2021, causing about USD 942 M in damage, 405 reported deaths and 52 missing. Yet, observational studies on the environmental conditions during TC RAI remain limited, and a comparison with other landfalling TCs were not done. To shed light on the factors that made this TC reach a maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) of 105 kts (194.5 kph) and 915 hPa mean sea level pressure according to the WMO-IBTrACS, this study investigated the meteorological statistics of this TC relative to …

Quantifying The Influence Of The Madden-Julian Oscillation On Rainfall Extremes During The Northeast Monsoon Season Of The Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, John A. Manalo, Alwin Bathan, Jun Matsumoto

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the extreme rainfall events across 11 eastern coastal stations during the northeast monsoon season (November to March) over the Philippines from 1979 to 2019. The contribution of synoptic systems to these extreme rainfall events such as tropical cyclones (TCs), low-pressure systems (LPS), cold surges (CS), and other disturbances as they coincide with a strong and active MJO were quantified. The results show that the probability of extreme rainfall occurrence increases first to as much as 20% in the southernmost stations in Phase 4. Then, it increases to more than …

Simulation Of Urban Heat Island During A High-Heat Event Using Wrf Urban Canopy Models: A Case Study For Metro Manila, Ronald Gil Joy P. Bilang, Ariel C. Blanco, Justine Ace S. Santos, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera

Physics Faculty Publications

This present study aims to determine the performance of using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, coupled with the urban canopy models (UCMs), in simulating the 2 m air temperature and 2 m relative humidity in Metro Manila. The simulation was performed during a high heat event on 22–29 April 2018, which coincided with the dry season in the Philippines. The four urban canopy model options that were used in this study include, the bulk (no urban), SLUCM, BEP, and BEM. The results of the simulations were compared with the hourly observations from three weather stations over Metro Manila …

Stubborn Aerosol: Why Particulate Mass Concentrations Do Not Drop During The Wet Season In Metro Manila, Philippines, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Paola Angela Bañaga, Grace Betito, Rachel A. Braun, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Alexander B. Macdonald, Preciosa Corazon Pabroa, James Bernard Simpas

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

Wet scavenging is the most important sink for particulate matter (PM) and is expected to decrease PM concentrations in the wet season. However, Metro Manila, Philippines has highly similar PM mass across seasons despite large differences in seasonal rainfall. It is important to identify factors contributing to seasonally consistent PM mass as these may be present in similar developing megacities besides Metro Manila, leading to PM accumulation and posing significant health risks. We use size-resolved aerosol composition, aerosol optical depth, and meteorological data to reveal that the seasonally consistent PM mass in Metro Manila is due to (1) opposing seasonal …

Influence Of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation On Rainfall Extremes In The Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates the impact of the northward/northwestward propagating 30–60-day mode of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on the extreme rainfall events in the Philippines during the June–September (JJAS) season from 1979 to 2018. The Philippines domain is divided into the three latitudinal regions: Luzon region (13°–22°N), Visayas region (10°–13°N), and Mindanao region (5°–10°N) to account for the regional differences in the timing of extreme rainfall events. The probability density functions of JJAS rainfall are skewed towards higher values relative to the non-BSISO days in BSISO Phases 6–8, Phases 5–7, and Phases 4–6 over the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao …

Particulate Oxalate-To-Sulfate Ratio As An Aqueous Processing Marker: Similarity Across Field Campaigns And Limitations, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Ewan Crosbie, Paola Angela Bañaga, Grace Betito, Rachel A. Braun, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Andrea F. Corral, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, Jackie E. Dibb, Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Alexander B. Macdonald, Claire E. Robinson, Michael Shook, James Bernard Simpas, Connor Stahl, Edward Winstead, Luke Ziemba, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

Leveraging aerosol data from multiple airborne and surface-based field campaigns encompassing diverse environmental conditions, we calculate statistics of the oxalate-sulfate mass ratio (median: 0.0217; 95% confidence interval: 0.0154 – 0.0296; R = 0.76; N = 2948). Ground-based measurements of the oxalate-sulfate ratio fall within our 95% confidence interval, suggesting the range is robust within the mixed layer for the submicrometer particle size range. We demonstrate that dust and biomass burning emissions can separately bias this ratio towards higher values by at least one order of magnitude. In the absence of these confounding factors, the 95% confidence interval of the ratio …

Synoptic Conditions And Potential Causes Of The Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event Of January 2009 Over Mindanao Island, Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Michelle Español Caballar, Joseph Cabacungan De Mata, Loida Ann Torres Dagami, Jun Matsumoto, Hisayuki Kubota

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates the synoptic conditions that led to the heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) event in Mindanao Island, Philippines (122 −127°E; 5 −10°N), on January 2009 (JAN2009 HRF) that are less emphasized in previous works. Extensive flooding was reported over Cagayan de Oro City in the northern part of Mindanao, where the rainfall on January 10, 11, and 13, 2009, exceeded the 99th percentile of daily rainfall records of all January of the city from 1979 to 2017 by almost two times. A similar exceedance was also felt in Hinatuan station over the eastern coast of Mindanao Island on January 15, …

The Effect Of Urbanization On Temperature Indices In The Philippines, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Marcelino Q. Villafuerte Ii, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Guoyu Ren, Thelma Cinco

Physics Faculty Publications

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the effect of urbanization on the surface air temperature (SAT) from 1951 to 2018 in the Philippines. The daily minimum temperature (T_min) and daily maximum temperature (T_max) records from 34 meteorological stations were used to derive extreme temperature indices. These stations were then classified as urban or rural based on satellite night-lights. The results showed a significant difference in the SAT trends between urban and rural stations, indicative of the effect of urbanization in the country. Larger and more significant warming trends were observed in indices related …

Measurement Report: Long-Range Transport Patterns Into The Tropical Northwest Pacific During The Camp2ex Aircraft Campaign: Chemical Composition, Size Distributions, And The Impact Of Convection, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Ewan Crosbie, Michael Shook, Jeffrey S. Reid, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, James Bernard Simpas, Luke Ziemba, Joshua P. Digangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Phu Nguyen, F. Joseph Turk, Edward Winstead, Claire E. Robinson, Jian Wang, Jiaoshi Zhang, Yang Wang, Subin Yoon, James Flynn, Sergio L. Alvarez, Ali Behrangi, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

The tropical Northwest Pacific (TNWP) is a receptor for pollution sources throughout Asia and is highly susceptible to climate change, making it imperative to understand long-range transport in this complex aerosol-meteorological environment. Measurements from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex; 24 August to 5 October 2019) and back trajectories from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) were used to examine transport into the TNWP from the Maritime Continent (MC), peninsular Southeast Asia (PSEA), East Asia (EA), and the West Pacific (WP). A mid-campaign monsoon shift on 20 September …

Large Global Variations In Measured Airborne Metal Concentrations Driven By Anthropogenic Sources, Jacob Mcneill, Randal V. Martin, Nofel Lagrosas, 35 Co-Authors

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

Globally consistent measurements of airborne metal concentrations in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) are important for understanding potential health impacts, prioritizing air pollution mitigation strategies, and enabling global chemical transport model development. PM_2.5 filter samples (N ~ 800 from 19 locations) collected from a globally distributed surface particulate matter sampling network (SPARTAN) between January 2013 and April 2019 were analyzed for particulate mass and trace metals content. Metal concentrations exhibited pronounced spatial variation, primarily driven by anthropogenic activities. PM_2.5 levels of lead, arsenic, chromium, and zinc were significantly enriched at some locations by factors of 100–3000 compared …

An Annual Time Series Of Weekly Size-Resolved Aerosol Properties In The Megacity Of Metro Manila, Philippines, Connor Stahl, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, Paola Angela Bañaga, Grace Betito, Rachel A. Braun, Mojtaba Azadi Aghdam, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Alexander B. Macdonald, Preciosa Corazon Pabroa, John Robin Yee, James Bernard Simpas, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

Size-resolved aerosol samples were collected in Metro Manila between July 2018 and October 2019. Two Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactors (MOUDI) were deployed at Manila Observatory in Quezon City, Metro Manila with samples collected on a weekly basis for water-soluble speciation and mass quantification. Additional sets were collected for gravimetric and black carbon analysis, including during special events such as holidays. The unique aspect of the presented data is a year-long record with weekly frequency of size-resolved aerosol composition in a highly populated megacity where there is a lack of measurements. The data are suitable for research to understand the sources, …

Aerosol Particle And Black Carbon Emission Factors Of Vehicular Fleet In Manila, Philippines, Leizel Madueño, Simonas Kecorius, Wolfram Birmili, Thomas Müller, James Bernard Simpas, Edgar Vallar, Maria Cecilia Galvez, Mylene Cayetano, Alfred Wiedensohler

Physics Faculty Publications

Poor air quality has been identified as one of the main risks to human health, especially in developing regions, where the information on physical chemical properties of air pollutants is lacking. To bridge this gap, we conducted an intensive measurement campaign in Manila, Philippines to determine the emission factors (EFs) of particle number (PN) and equivalent black carbon (BC). The focus was on public utility jeepneys (PUJ), equipped with old technology diesel engines, widely used for public transportation. The EFs were determined by aerosol physical measurements, fleet information, and modeled dilution using the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). The results …

A Climatological Study Of The Wet And Dry Conditions In The Presummer Monsoon Season Of The Philippines, Lyndon Mark Olaguera, Jun Matsumoto

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates the climatology of the wet and dry conditions in the pre‐summer monsoon season of the Philippines that are less emphasized in previous works. Wet cases (Type W), which account for about 23% of the total pre‐summer monsoon days from 1979 to 2015, are identified from April 1 to the monsoon onset defined by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The differences between the Type W and dry cases (Type D) are presented. The synoptic conditions associated with the Type W and Type D cases are sub‐divided into two sub‐types based on the wind conditions, …

Size - Resolved Composition And Morphology Of Particulate Matter During The Southwest Monsoon In Metro Manila, Philippines, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, Paola Angela Bañaga, Grace Betito, Rachel A. Braun, Connor Stahl, Mojtaba Azadi Aghdam, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Hossein Dadashazar, Miguel Ricardo Hilario, Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Lin Ma, Alexander B. Macdonald, Preciosa Corazon Pabroa, John Robin Yee, James Bernard Simpas, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

This paper presents novel results from size-resolved particulate matter (PM) mass, composition, and morphology measurements conducted during the 2018 southwest monsoon (SWM) season in Metro Manila, Philippines. Micro-orifice uniform deposit impactors (MOUDIs) were used to collect PM sample sets composed of size-resolved measurements at the following aerodynamic cut-point diameters (Dp): 18, 10, 5.6, 3.2, 1.8, 1.0, 0.56, 0.32, 0.18, 0.10, and 0.056 µm. Each sample set was analyzed for composition of the water-soluble fraction. Analysis for mass was carried out on two sample sets, whereas black carbon (BC) and morphology analysis were analyzed on a single sample set. The bulk …

Activity Pattern Of School/University Tenants And Their Family Members In Metro Manila – Philippines, Simonas Kecorius, Everlyn Gale Tamayo, Maria Cecilia Galvez, Leizel Madueño, Grace Betito, Mylene Gonzaga-Cayetano, Edgar Vallar, Alfred Wiedensohler

Physics Faculty Publications

Existing studies that focus on personal exposure to or the deposition dose of particulate pollution in developing regions are limited. Hence, in this study, as a first step, we present results on how people spend their daily time in Metro Manila, Philippines. This information is critical to assessing personal exposure to and the deposition dose of particulate pollutants. We found that people spend less time at home on workdays than weekends (52% versus 70%), the fraction of time spent at work/school increases with age until retirement, adult males spend less time at home than females (18% versus 28%), and people …

The Indianapolis Flux Experiment (Influx): A Test-Bed For Developing Urban Greenhouse Gas Emission Measurements, Kenneth J. Davis, Aijun Deng, Thomas Lauvaux, Natasha Miles, Scott Richardson, Daniel Sarmiento, Kevin R. Gurney, R Michael Hardesty, Timothy A. Bonin, W Alan Brewer, Brian K. Lamb, Paul B. Shepson, Rebecca M. Harvey, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Colm Sweeney, Jocelyn Turnbull, James Whetstone, Anna Karion

Physics Faculty Publications

The objective of the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) is to develop, evaluate and improve methods for measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities. INFLUX’s scientific objectives are to quantify CO2 and CH4 emission rates at 1 km2 resolution with a 10% or better accuracy and precision, to determine whole-city emissions with similar skill, and to achieve high (weekly or finer) temporal resolution at both spatial resolutions. The experiment employs atmospheric GHG measurements from both towers and aircraft, atmospheric transport observations and models, and activity-based inventory products to quantify urban GHG emissions. Multiple, independent methods for estimating urban emissions are a …

Quantification Of Urban Atmospheric Boundary Layer Greenhouse Gas Dry Mole Fraction Enhancements In The Dormant Season: Results From The Indianapolis Flux Experiment (Influx), Natasha Miles, Scott Richardson, Thomas Lauvaux, Kenneth J. Davis, Nikolay V. Balashov, Aijun Deng, Jocelyn Turnbull, Colm Sweeney, Kevin R. Gurney, Risa Patarasuk, Igor Razlivanov, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Paul B. Shepson

Physics Faculty Publications

We assess the detectability of city emissions via a tower-based greenhouse gas (GHG) network, as part of the Indianapolis Flux (INFLUX) experiment. By examining afternoon-averaged results from a network of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) mole fraction measurements in Indianapolis, Indiana for 2011–2013, we quantify spatial and temporal patterns in urban atmospheric GHG dry mole fractions. The platform for these measurements is twelve communications towers spread across the metropolitan region, ranging in height from 39 to 136 m above ground level, and instrumented with cavity ring-down spectrometers. Nine of the sites were deployed as of January …

Assessing The Optimized Precision Of The Aircraft Mass Balance Method For Measurement Of Urban Greenhouse Gas Emission Rates Through Averaging, Alexie M F Heimburger, Rebecca M. Harvey, Paul B. Shepson, Brian H. Stirm, Chloe Gore, Jocelyn Turnbull, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Olivia E. Salmon, Anna-Elodie M. Kerlo, Tegan Lavoie, Kenneth J. Davis, Thomas Lauvaux, Anna Karion, Colm Sweeney, W Alan Brewer, R Michael Hardesty, Kevin R. Gurney

Physics Faculty Publications

To effectively address climate change, aggressive mitigation policies need to be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Anthropogenic carbon emissions are mostly generated from urban environments, where human activities are spatially concentrated. Improvements in uncertainty determinations and precision of measurement techniques are critical to permit accurate and precise tracking of emissions changes relative to the reduction targets. As part of the INFLUX project, we quantified carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) emission rates for the city of Indianapolis by averaging results from nine aircraft-based mass balance experiments performed in November-December 2014. Our goal was to assess the …

Wind Energy Projection For The Philippines Based On Climate Change Modeling, Angeli Silang, Sherdon Niño Uy, Julie Mae Dado, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Gemma T. Narisma, Nathaniel Joseph C. Libatique, Gregory Tangonan

Physics Faculty Publications

To complement the existing method of wind energy assessment, this study presents wind energy projection by downscaling a regional climate model, RegCM3, which is also used in predicting rainfall and temperature changes, and using a conversion method using the Weibull distribution. A couple of papers which used long-term predicting models focused on two regions, China and the US High Plains, show a decrease of about 14% and 7%-17% respectively in wind power density due to global warming over the next century. This paper focuses on a smaller grid size of 10 km x 10 km to concentrate on a specific …