Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Climate Change In Southern New Hampshire: Past, Present And Future, Cameron P. Wake, Elizabeth A. Burakowski, Peter Wilkinson, Katharine Hayhoe, Anne Stoner, C. Keeley, Julie Labranche

The Sustainability Institute Publications

EARTH’S CLIMATE CHANGES. It always has and always will. However, an extensive and growing body of scientific evidence indicates that human activities—including the burning of fossil fuel (coal, oil, and natural gas) for energy, clearing of forested lands for agriculture, and raising livestock—are now the primary force driving change in the Earth’s climate system. This report describes how the climate of southern New Hampshire has changed over the past century and how the future climate of the region will be affected by a warmer planet due to human activities.

Wind Pattern Effects On The Southern Shetland Islands, Helen Pottle

Thinking Matters Symposium Archive

The Shetland Islands, northeast of Scotland, experienced an unusually extreme storm that caused unique sand shifting patterns and sand dune formations that resulted in the destruction of the Village of Broo. There is little existing information about the weather and terrain of the Shetland Islands during the extreme storm that was estimated to have occurred between 1650 and 1670. WindNinja, a wind model originally developed for wildland fire application, was used to understand the wind patterns that may have caused the unique sand patterns and resulting destruction. It incorporates existing terrain elevations and vegetation as well as average wind speed …

Droughtscape, Spring 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook . 2

Drought climate recap 3

Drought impacts .

DroughtAtlas

Missouri River Basin pilot 9

NASA Horn of Africa project 10

U2U tools and social science . 12

Consulting for Turkey 14

Czech drought monitoring 14

Umphlett Qci March 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Tourism and Recreation

Missouri Basin Flood Outlook

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

The Influence Of Recurrent Modes Of Climate Variability On The Occurrence Of Winter And Summer Extreme Temperatures Over North America, Paul C. Loikith, Anthony J. Broccoli

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The influence of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months over North America is examined. Associations between extreme temperature days and months are strongest with the PNA and NAM andweaker for ENSO. In general, the associationwith extremes tends to be stronger onmonthly than daily time scales and for winter as compared to summer. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNAandNAMin the vicinity of the centers of action of these circulation patterns; however, many extremes also occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these …

Landsat-8: Science And Product Vision For Terrestrial Global Change Research, David P. Roy, M. A. Wulder, T. R. Loveland, C. E. Woodcock, R. G. Allen, M. C. Anderson, D. Helder, J. R. Irons, D. M. Johnson, R. Kennedy, T. A. Scambos, C. B. Schaaf, J. R. Schott, Y. Sheng, E. F. Vermote, A. S. Belward, R. Bindschadler, W. B. Cohen, F. Gao, J. D. Hipple, P. Hostert, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nv, C. O. Justice, Ayse Kilic, V. Kovalskyy, Z. P. Lee, L. Lymburner, J. G. Masek, J. Mccorkel, Y. Shuai, R. Trezza, J. Vogelmann, R. H. Wynne, Z. Zhu

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Landsat 8, a NASA and USGS collaboration, acquires global moderate-resolution measurements of the Earth's terrestrial and polar regions in the visible, near-infrared, short wave, and thermal infrared. Landsat 8 extends the remarkable 40 year Landsat record and has enhanced capabilities including new spectral bands in the blue and cirrus cloud-detection portion of the spectrum, two thermal bands, improved sensor signal-to-noise performance and associated improvements in radiometric resolution, and an improved duty cycle that allows collection of a significantly greater number of images per day. This paper introduces the current (2012–2017) Landsat Science Team's efforts to establish an initial understanding of …

Data-Driven Diagnostics Of Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics Over North America, Jingfeng Xiao, Scott V. Ollinger, Steve Frolking, George Hurtt, David Y. Hollinger, Kenneth J. Davis, Yude Pan, Xiaoyang Zhang, Feng Deng, Jiquan Chen, Dennis D. Baldocchi, Beverly E. Law, M. Altaf Arain, Ankur R. Desai, Andrew D. Richardson, Ge Sun, Brian Amiro, Hank Margolis, Lianhong Gu, Russell L. Scott, Peter D. Blanken, Andrew E. Suyker

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The exchange of carbon dioxide is a key measure of ecosystem metabolism and a critical intersection between the terrestrial biosphere and the Earth’s climate. Despite the general agreement that the terrestrial ecosystems in North America provide a sizeable carbon sink, the size and distribution of the sink remain uncertain. We use a data-driven approach to upscale eddy covariance flux observations from towers to the continental scale by integrating flux observations, meteorology, stand age,aboveground biomass, and a proxy for canopy nitrogen concentrations from AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada Research Network as well as a variety of satellite data streams from the MODIS sensors. …

Estimation Of Crop Gross Primary Production (Gpp): FaparChl Versus Mod15a2 Fpar, Qingyuan Zhang, Yen-Ben Cheng, A. I. Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Feng Gao, Andrew E. Suyker, Shashi B. Verma, Elizabeth M. Middleton

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Photosynthesis (PSN) is a pigment level process in which antenna pigments (predominately chlorophylls) in chloroplasts absorb photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) for the photochemical process. PAR absorbed by foliar non-photosynthetic components is not used for PSN. The fraction of PAR absorbed (fAPAR) by a canopy/vegetation (i.e., fAPAR_canopy) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, referred to as MOD15A2 FPAR, has been used to compute absorbed PAR (APAR) for PSN (APAR_PSN) which is utilized to produce the standard MODIS gross primary production (GPP) product, referred to as MOD17A2 GPP. In this study, the fraction of PAR …

Investigating The Effect Of The ‘‘Land Between The Lakes’’ On Storm Patterns, Joshua D. Durkee, Ahmed M. Degu, Faisal Hossain, Rezaul Mahmood, Jesse Winchester, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The artificially created region around the ‘‘Land between the Lakes’’ (LBL) in Kentucky represents unique land use and land cover (LULC) heterogeneities. Over a distance of 100 km, the LULC comprises artificially created open water bodies (i.e., two parallel large run-on-river dams separated by the LBL), mountainous terrain, forest cover, and extensive agricultural land. Such heterogeneities increase (decrease) moisture supply and sensible heat, resulting in a differential air mass boundary that helps to initiate (inhibit) convection. Hence, the LBL can potentially modify precipitation formation. Historical anecdotes reveal a tendency for storms to dissipate or reintensify near the LBL. The specific …

A Comparison Of The Mm5 And The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Simulations For Land--Atmosphere Interactions Under Varying Soil Moisture, Astrid Suarez, Rezaul Mamood, Arturo I. Quintanar, Adriana Beltran-Prezekurat, Roger Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A comparison between two mesoscale models, Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 4.4 coupled with the Land-Ecosystem--Atmosphere Feedback Model (LEAF2) and Penn State/NCAR’s Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled with NOAH Land Surface Model, was conducted in order to assess the sensitivity of forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) variables to anomalous initial volumetric soil moisture conditions. The experiments were conducted using three synoptic events: June 11, 17 and 22, 2006. For each event, one control run and six additional simulations were completed using RAMS and MM5. In each of the events, initial volumetric soil moisture was increased and decreased …

Regional Dust Storm Modeling For Health Services: The Case Of Valley Fever, William A. Sprigg, Slobodan Nickovic, John N. Galgiani, Goran Pejanovic, Slavo Petkovic, Mirjam Vujadinovic, Ana Vukovic, Milan Dacic, Scott Dibiase, Anup K. Prasad, Hesham El-Askary

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

On 5 July 2011, a massive dust storm struck Phoenix, Arizona (USA), raising concerns for increased cases of valley fever (coccidioidomycosis, or, cocci). A quasi-operational experimental airborne dust forecast system predicted the event and provides model output for continuing analysis in collaboration with public health and air quality communities. An objective of this collaboration was to see if a signal in cases of valley fever in the region could be detected and traced to the storm - an American haboob. To better understand the atmospheric life cycle of cocci spores, the DREAM dust model (also herein, NMME-DREAM) was modified to …

Winter Wind Chill Climatology For The High Plains Region, Holly B. Lussenden, Natalie A. Umphlett, Martha D. Shulski, Daniel Ebert

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

During the winter months in the High Plains region of the United States, wind chill temperatures can reach dangerous levels for humans and animals. Knowing the frequency in which extreme wind chill temperatures occur could help forecasters know when to issue wind chill advisories and also the general public understand just how rare, or common, certain wind chill temperatures are. A climatology spanning a 37-year period was created using data from 57 stations in and around the plains portion of the High Plains region from the Integrated Surface Hourly Database at National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). These climatologies were completed …

Climate Masters Of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach For Climate Change Education, Tapan Pathak, Tonya Bernadt, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in their lives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately 500 hours of volunteer work was reported by participants as an outreach for greenhouse gas emission reduction. The program can be easily replicated to other locales with an effective planning and with small leadership team.

Droughtscape, Winter 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook & quarterly review . 2

Drought in 2013 review.

Quarterly impacts review . 5

Impacts in 2013 review.

Belmont Forum research0

USDM change maps 11

Central Asia drought planning

Kansas RC&D planning

Publication compares plans

Drought for planners webinar

Soil moisture networks

Kansas farm and ranch planning

$500 to develop leadership

Kids seek solutions

Plains symposium April 1-4

Numerical Simulation Of “An American Haboob”, A. Vukovic, M. Vujadinovic, G. Pejanovic, J. Andric, M. J. Kumjian, V. Djurdjevic, M. Dacic, Anup K. Prasad, Hesham El-Askary, B. C. Paris, S. Petkovic, W. Sprigg, S. Nickovic

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

A dust storm of fearful proportions hit Phoenix in the early evening hours of 5 July 2011. This storm, an American haboob, was predicted hours in advance because numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events have improved greatly over the past decade. High-resolution numerical models are required for accurate simulation of the small scales of the haboob process, with high velocity surface winds produced by strong convection and severe downbursts. Dust productive areas in this region consist mainly of agricultural fields, with soil surfaces disturbed by plowing and tracks of land in the high Sonoran Desert …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2013, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture

September Flooding in Colorado

Early October Blizzard

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Droughtscape, Fall 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Kansas community drought planning workshop November 5

Drought impacts webinars

Drought outlook and summary

Late summer drought brings more agricultural impacts

Plans help ranchers weather drought

NDMC contributions to U2U project

Drought Management Database archives strategies

QuickDRI will help spot flash droughts

NDMC Co-Hosts NASA workshop

Wilhite leads Integrated Drought Management Program work

Speaking of drought

Managing #Drought tweet chat transcript

Updated USDM website

Climate Change On The Prairie: A Basic Guide To Climate Change In The High Plains Region - Update, Lincoln, Ne

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Global Climate Change

Climate Change in the United States

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

High Plains Region Update: 2010-2012

New Tool: Climate Impact Reporter

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Juxtaposing Nasa’S Aeronet Aod With Carb Pm Data Over The San Joaquin Valley To Facilitate Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (Misr) Pm Pollution Research, John Kanemoto

STAR Program Research Presentations

Airborne particulate matter (PM) has been shown to increase the risk for asthma, chronic bronchitis, cardiopulmonary complications, and respiratory cell membrane damage/infection/leakage. PM levels are currently analyzed from two perspectives: stationary land-based monitoring (LBM) sites and total Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) atmospheric column measurements. Both perspectives often leave miles of space between measuring locations and will have a continually increasing cost from introducing/maintaining sites. The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite team hopes to begin investigating/archiving PM levels comprehensively via inputting MISR AOD measurements into a function/model which predicts the amount of ground level PM.

In the future, multivariable spatial correlations …

Classifying Reanalysis Surface Temperature Probability Density Functions (Pdfs) Over North America With Cluster Analysis, Paul C. Loikith, Benjamin R. Lintner, Jinwon Kim, Huikyo Lee

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

An important step in projecting future climate change impacts on extremes involves quantifying the underlying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of climate variables. However, doing so can prove challenging when multiple models and large domains are considered. Here an approach to PDF quantification using k-means clustering is considered. A standard clustering algorithm (with k = 5 clusters) is applied to 33 years of daily January surface temperature from two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, the North American Regional Reanalysis and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. The resulting cluster assignments yield spatially coherent patterns that can be broadly related to …

Droughtscape, Summer 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

July 25 webinar: Drought management database, NIDIS update

Republican River Basin workshops July 31, August 1

Summer climate outlook, spring summary

Spring impacts: wildfire, water, agriculture and business

Data help managers assess Nebraska groundwater declines after drought of 2012

Tadesse helps Mexico with Veg-DRI concept

Visiting scholar explores remote sensing of drought in forests

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum photo recap, details online

Workshop helps New Mexico ranchers cope with drought

Alabama’s new drought plan

National Drought Forum report

Drought Impacts Community of Practice report

Droughtscape, Spring 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter climate summary and outlook

Impacts: Crop indemnities set records in 2012; water conflicts escalating

International meeting recommends countries have drought policies

NDMC plays key role in international drought policy meeting

EDEN and VOAD guide helps build community drought capacity

Svoboda, other experts and policymakers focus on food and water security

New Mexico ranching workshop set for May 29 in Socorro

Ranch planning updates: archived webinars, new publications

Tune in to the US Drought Monitor Forum, April 16-18

Archived webinar looks at using drought simulations in planning

CoCoRaHS WxTalk on drought

Remote Sensing Of Surface Visibility From Space: A Look At The United States East Coast, Amy L. Kessner

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

While important for the management of air quality, human health and transportation, surface visibility data currently are only available through ground-based measurements, such as the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and therefore lack spatial coverage. In analogy to the recent work of using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to derive surface dry aerosol mass concentration at continental-to-global scale for cloud-free conditions, this study evaluates the potential of AOD retrieved from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for deriving surface visibility. For this purpose of evaluation, the truncated and discrete visibility data from daily weather reports are not suitable and the …

Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions From A Waste Lagoon, Arturo I. Quintanar, Rezaul Mamood, Nanh Lovanh, Justin M. Rawley, Evi Becerra-Acosta, John H. Loughrin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A cost-effective approach was used to investigate the relationship between emission of the greenhouse gases (GHG), namely, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O and energy fluxes from a swine waste lagoon. Energy fluxes were calculated using the Penman method. The energy fluxes showed a diurnal pattern as expected of such fluxes. We found that air temperature and latent energy, lagoon surface temperature and solar radiation, as well as air temperature and wind speed can be used to predict for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions, respectively. Comparison of observed and predicted …

Regional Climate Trends And Scenarios For The U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate Of The U.S. Great Plains, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Laura E. Stevens, Scott E. Stevens, Liqiang Sun, Emily Janssen, Donald Wuebbles, Michael C. Kruk, Devin Thomas, Martha Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Kevin Robbins, Luigi Romolo, Adnan Akyuz, Tapan B. Pathak, Tony R. Bergantino, J. Greg Dobson

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This document is one of series of regional climate descriptions designed to provide input that can be used in the development of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate scenario needs become clear. It is also hoped that these documents (and associated data and resources) are of direct benefit to decision makers and communities seeking to use this information in developing adaptation plans.

There are nine reports in this series, one each for eight …

Droughtscape, Winter 2013, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Climatological overview of drought in 2012

Climatological overview of drought, October-December 2012

Impacts of drought in 2012

Drought planning webinars scheduled for ranch advisors

UNL honors NDMC for exceptional service

Report from the emerging community of drought planners

Feb. 6 webinar on drought simulations

Climate Masters course starting

Climate Change in the Midwest book includes drought

Video highlights from coverage of drought of 2012

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum 2013

UN’s High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy

NDMC collaboration with India, Czech Republic

Climate Change: What Does It Mean For Nebraska?, Martha D. Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Tapan B. Pathak, Kenneth G. Hubbard

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Because Nebraska’s location on the North American continent is far removed from large bodies of water, Nebraskans experience a strong continental type climate. As such, residents do not benefit from the moderating influence of the ocean, and temperatures can have wide swings from day to day and season to season. Typical characteristics for a continental climate at this latitude are large temperature variability with warm summers dominated by convective thunderstorms, and cold winters influenced by snow and wind from mid-latitude cyclones.

Rose: Roadmaps Towards Sustainable Energy Futures And Climate Protection: A Synthesis Of Results From The Rose Project, Elmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Enrica Decian, Robert J. Brecha, Wenying Chen, Aleh Cherp, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Shonali Pachauri, Fabio Sferra, Massimo Tavoni, Ottmar Edenhofer

Physics Faculty Publications

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Exploring energy demand and supply uncertainty: An exploration of uncertainty on drivers of energy demand and supply is indispensable for better understanding the prospects of long-tern climate stabilization. The RoSE study is the first of its kind to systematically explore the impact of economic growth, population and fossil fuel scarcity, in scenarios with and without climate policy, using a model ensemble. A feature of RoSE is the participation of five established integrated assessment modelling teams from three important regions in international climate policy negotiations: the EU, the USA and China.

Economic growth: Neither slow nor rapid economic growth …

Cave Ventilation Is Influenced By Variations In The Co2-Dependent Virtual Temperature, Enrique P. Sánchez-Cañete, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Francisco Domingo, Andrew S. Kowalski

International Journal of Speleology

Dynamics and drivers of ventilation in caves are of growing interest for different fields of science. Accumulated CO₂ in caves can be exchanged with the atmosphere, modifying the internal CO₂ content, affecting stalagmite growth rates, deteriorating rupestrian paintings or creating new minerals. Current estimates of cave ventilation neglect the role of high CO₂ concentrations in determining air density – approximated via the virtual temperature (T_v) –, affecting buoyancy and therefore the release or storage of CO₂. Here we try to improve knowledge and understanding of cave ventilation through the use of T …

Black Carbon Measurements Of Snow And Ice Using The Single Particle Soot Photometer: Method Development And An Ad 1852-1999 Record Of Atmospheric Black Carbon From A Mount Logan Ice Core, James Andrew Menking

All Master's Theses

Black carbon (BC), produced by the combustion of fossil and biofuels, warms the climate by absorbing solar radiation when in the atmosphere and by reducing the albedo of snow and ice when deposited. Measuring BC in snow and ice is important for estimating albedo reduction and developing historical records of BC concentration. Experiments were conducted to further develop a method for measuring BC in snow and ice using the Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2). Results suggest the optimal procedures for sample storage, treatment, and nebulization, and analysis and calibration of BC concentrations measured using the SP2 coupled to a CETAC …