Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Application Of Recurrent Neural Networks For Drought Projections In California, J. A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between …

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Evaluating Hourly Rainfall Characteristics Over The U.S. Great Plains In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Simulations Using Nasa-Unified Wrf, Huikyo Lee, Duane E. Waliser, Robert Ferraro, Takamichi Iguchi, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Baijun Tian, Paul C. Loikith, Daniel B. Wright

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events remains a challenge in climate models. This study utilizes hourly precipitation data from ground stations and satellite instruments to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model at horizontal resolutions of 4, 12, and 24 km over the Great Plains of the United States. We also examined the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to different spectral nudging approaches and the cumulus parameterizations. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as an hourly diurnal cycle of precipitation and a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between …

Remote Sensing Observation Of Annual Dust Cycles And Possible Causality Of Kawasaki Disease Outbreaks In Japan, Hesham El-Askary, Nick Lahaye, Erik J. Linstead, William A. Sprigg, Magdi Yacoub

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a rare vascular disease that, if left untreated, can result in irreparable cardiac damage in children. While the symptoms of KD are well-known, as are best practices for treatment, the etiology of the disease and the factors contributing to KD outbreaks remain puzzling to both medical practitioners and scientists alike. Recently, a fungus known as Candida, originating in the farmlands of China, has been blamed for outbreaks in China and Japan, with the hypothesis that it can be transported over long ranges via different wind mechanisms. This paper provides evidence to understand the transport mechanisms …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Analysis Of Aerosol Absorption Properties And Transport Over North Africa And The Middle East Using Aeronet Data, Ashraf Farahat, Hesham El-Askary, Peter Adetokunbo, Abu-Tharr Fuad

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

In this paper particle categorization and absorption properties were discussed to understand transport mechanisms at different geographic locations and possible radiative impacts on climate. The long-term Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data set (1999–2015) is used to estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA), and the absorption Ångström exponent (abs) at eight locations in North Africa and the Middle East. Average variation in SSA is calculated at four wavelengths (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm), and the relationship between aerosol absorption and physical properties is used to infer dominant aerosol types at different locations. It was found that seasonality …

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Measuring Landfill Methane Emissions Using Satellite And Ground Data, Madjid Delkash, Bowen Zhou, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Landfill methane emissions (LME) vary in short periods depending upon the meteorological and atmospheric conditions. In this paper, coupling the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) with the tracer dilution method (TDM) is proposed during unmeasured emission days to have a better annual estimation of the LME. Some assumptions were made to develop this proposed model. The atmospheric model Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) was employed to evaluate assumptions made during emission estimation using the proposed technique. Methane emissions of a landfill for 13 days during 2011–2013 were measured by the TDM and filtered to remove unreliable data. Then, the filtered data …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Streamflow Conditions

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Analyzing Accuracy Of The Lufft Ws600 In Remotely Measuring Precipitation Events, Justin Gay

STAR Program Research Presentations

The goal of this project was to analyze the accuracy of the Lufft WS600 Weather Sensor in measuring the rate of both liquid and solid precipitation. Measurement accuracy, especially in remote locations, can be difficult to obtain and quantify. Wind, blowing debris, and atmospheric particles can all have the capacity to interfere with instruments that are not being continuously compared to manual observations. Access to quality precipitation data sets are important for both hydrologic and weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and understanding the role of water cycling through ecosystems. Commercially, weather sensors are heavily relied upon by the Federal Aviation Administration …

Low-Cost Hab Platform To Measure Particulate Matter In The Troposphere, Mark J. Potosnak, Bernhard Beck-Winchatz, Paul Ritter

2017 Academic High Altitude Conference

High-altitude balloons (HABs) are an engaging platform for formal and informal STEM education. However, the logistics of launching, chasing and recovering a payload on a 1200 g or 1500 g balloon can be daunting for many novice school groups and citizen scientists, and the cost can be prohibitive. In addition, there are many interesting scientific applications that do not require reaching the stratosphere. In this poster presentation we discuss a novel approach based on small (30 g) balloons that are cheap and easy to handle, and low-cost tracking devices (SPOT and 900 MHz spread spectrum) that do not require a …

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

Umphlett Qci June 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Limited Frost Damage to Crops this Spring

Wet Conditions Cause Mixed Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Comparison Of Combustion Efficiency To In-Situ Atmospheric Ammonia Measurements From A Miniature Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer In The La Basin, Taylor Krause, Barry L. Lefer, Timothy H. Betram, Steven R. Schill

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

Atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) has been shown to impact the environment and threaten both human and animal health, especially in heavily populated urban areas, yet to date there remains a paucity of direct measurements. Recent studies have suggested that ammonia may be generated as a byproduct of fossil fuel emissions due to highly active catalytic converters in light-duty gasoline vehicles. To investigate this relationship, an airborne miniature Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (miniCIMS) was used to directly measure atmospheric ammonia and combustion reaction products in the Southern California LA Basin, during the 2015 NASA Student Airborne Research Program (SARP). The …

Dynamical Characteristics Of Atmospheric Aerosols Over Ig Region, Manish Sharma, Ramesh P. Singh, Rajesh Kumar

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The dynamical characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic (IG) region are primarily dependent on the geographical settings and meteorological conditions. Detailed analysis of multi satellite data and ground observations have been carried out over three different cities i.e. Kanpur, Greater Noida and Amritsar during 2010-2013. Level-3 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) terra daily global grid product with spatial resolution of 1° × 1° shows the mean AOD at 500 nm wavelength value of 0.73, 0.70 and 0.67 with the standard deviation of 0.43, 0.39 and 0.36 respectively over Amritsar, Greater Noida and Kanpur. Our detailed analysis shows characteristic behavior …

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Effects Of Meteorological Conditions On Sulfur Dioxide Air Pollution In The North China Plain During Winter Of 2006–2015, Chase C. Calkins

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The last decade has seen frequent occurrences of severe air pollution episodes of high concentration in SO₂ during winters in the North China Plain (NCP). Using satellite data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulations, and National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP) meteorological reanalyzes, this study examines meteorological and synoptic conditions associated with these air pollution episodes during winters of 2006-2015. OMI-based data suggest a large decrease (~30% in area average) of emission since 2010. Statistical analyzes show that meteorological conditions associated with the top 10% of OMI-based high days are found in average to …

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Agriculture Causes Nitrate Fertilization Of Remote Alpine Lakes, Elizabeth J. Hundey, Sam S.D. Russell, Fred Longstaffe, Katrina A. Moser

Earth Sciences Publications

Humans have altered Earth’s nitrogen cycle so dramatically that reactive nitrogen (Nr) has doubled. This has increased Nr in aquatic ecosystems, which can lead to reduced water quality and ecosystem health. Apportioning sources of Nr to specific ecosystems, however, continues to be challenging, despite this knowledge being critical for mitigation and protection of water resources. Here we use D¹⁷O, d¹⁸O and d¹⁵N from Uinta Mountain (Utah, USA) snow, inflow and lake nitrate in combination with a Bayesian-based stable isotope mixing model, to show that at least 70% of nitrates in aquatic systems are anthropogenic …

Climate-Relevant Land Use And Land Cover Change Policies, Rezaul Mahmood, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Clive Mcalpine

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate. Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, …

Support For Drought Response And Community Preparedness: Filling The Gaps Between Plans And Action, Kelly Helm Smith, Crystal J. Stiles, Michael Hayes, Christopher Carparelli

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This chapter examines which levels of government handle various aspects of drought, as well as interactions between levels of government, providing examples from states across the western United States. It also takes a look at aspects of drought that fall outside traditional lines of authority and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a discussion on how states support local drought response, the chapter details and contrasts how California and Colorado track public water supply restrictions, and describes Colorado’s process for incorporating input from river basins across the state into its water plan. Case studies focus on drought planning in the Klamath …

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Three-Dimensional Wind Speed And Flux Measurements Over A Rain-Fed Soybean Field Using Orthogonal And Non-Orthogonal Sonic Anemometer Designs, Taylor Thomas

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The eddy covariance method for estimating fluxes of trace gases, energy and momentum in the constant flux layer above a plant canopy fundamentally relies on accurate measurements of the vertical wind speed. This wind speed is typically measured using a three-dimensional ultrasonic anemometer. Previous studies comparing anemometers with orthogonal transducer sets to those with non-orthogonal transducer sets suggest differences in measured 3D wind speed components, particularly for a vertical component. These differences, attributed to additional flow distortion caused by the non-orthogonal transducer arrangement and support structure, directly affect fluxes of trace gases, energy and momentum. A field experiment was conducted …

Umphlett Qci 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Late Hard Freeze

Late Freezes Extended Growing Season

Warm Fall Delays Bird Migrations

Monitoring Water Resources Across the Basin

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Evaluation Of Large‑Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated With Temperature Extremes In The Narccap Regional Climate Model Simulations, Paul C. Loikith, Duane E. Waliser, Huikyo Lee, J. David Neelin, Benjamin Lintner, Seth Mcginnis, Linda Mears, Jinwon Kim

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near …

Utilizing Humidity And Temperature Data To Advance Monitoring And Prediction Of Meteorological Drought, Ali Behrangi, Paul C. Loikith, Eric J. Fetzer, Hai M. Nguyen, Stephanie L. Granger

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The fraction of land area over the Continental United States experiencing extreme hot and dry conditions has been increasing over the past several decades, consistent with expectation from anthropogenic climate change. A clear concurrent change in precipitation, however, has not been confirmed. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), combining temperature and humidity, is utilized here as an indicator of the background atmospheric conditions associated with meteorological drought. Furthermore, atmospheric conditions associated with warm season drought events are assessed by partitioning associated VPD anomalies into the temperature and humidity components. This approach suggests that the concurrence of anomalously high temperature and low humidity …

Droughtscape, Fall 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

NDMC 20th anniversary 2

Employment opportunity

Third quarter 2015 climate summary

Third quarter 2015 impacts summary

Workshop in Ethiopia

San Antonio multi-hazard tournament

Healthy soil is drought buffer

U2U Award

Cost-benefit analysis for utilities managing drought

NDMC helps with rural poll questions on climate

Introducing our post-docs

South Korean visitors