Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

New And Improved Infra-Red Absorption Cross Sections And Ace-Fts Retrievals Of Carbon Tetrachloride (Ccl4), Jeremy J. Harrison, Christopher D. Boone, Peter F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl₄) is one of the species regulated by the Montreal Protocol on account of its ability to deplete stratospheric ozone. As such, the inconsistency between observations of its abundance and estimated sources and sinks is an important problem requiring urgent attention (Carpenter et al., 2014) [5]. Satellite remote-sensing has a role to play, particularly limb sounders which can provide vertical profiles into the stratosphere and therefore validate stratospheric loss rates in atmospheric models. This work is in two parts. The first describes new and improved high-resolution infra-red absorption cross sections of carbon tetrachloride/dry synthetic air over …

Upper Water Structure And Mixed Layer Depth In Tropical Waters: The Seats Station In The Northern South China Sea, Jen-Hua Tai, George T. F. Wong, Xiaoju Pan

OES Faculty Publications

The variability of the upper water hydrographic structure, the efficacy of the different schemes for estimating the mixed layer depth (MLD), the inter-comparability estimation of the MLDs and diurnal and intra-annual MLD climatology in the tropical waters in the northern South China Sea were accessed in 702 depth-profiles of potential temperature (θ) and salinity collected in 64 cruises between 17.5 and 18.5°N and 115.3 and 116.3°E from 1997 to 2013. The hydrographic structure may be subdivided into three principal types: the classical type, with quasi-isopycnal surface mixed layer followed by an abrupt increase in the depth-gradient in θ and potential …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Unraveling The Fingerprints Of Nox Using Stable Isotopes: Implications For Nox Source Partitioning And Oxidation Chemistry, Wendell William Walters

Open Access Dissertations

The nitrogen (N) and oxygen (O) stable isotope composition (δ15N & δ18O) of nitrogen oxides (NOx )may be a useful tool for constraining NOx emission sources as well as for understanding the atmospheric oxidation pathways responsible for its removal if various NOx sources and sink processes exhibit characteristic isotopic compositions (“fingerprints”). However, this requires (1) an accurate and complete inventory of δ15N(NOx) values from major emission sources, (2) an assessment of the kinetic and equilibrium isotope effects that can impact δ15N and δ18O values of NOx, (3) and test these assumptions by conducting accurate in situ δ15N and δ18O measurements …

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Umphlett Qci Sept 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Streamflow Conditions

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Estimation Of The Instantaneous Downward Surface Shortwave Radiation Using Modis Data In Lhasa For All-Sky Conditions, Xu Lu

Sustainability and Social Justice

Measuring the solar irradiance with high accuracy is the basis of PV power forecasting. Although the downward surface shortwave radiation (DSSR) data derived from satellite images are widely used in the PV industry, the instantaneity and accuracy of these data are not suitable for PV power forecasting in a short-time period. In this study, an algorithm to calculate instantaneous DSSR for all-sky conditions was developed by combining clear-sky radiative transfer model and 3D radiative transfer model using MODIS products (MOD03-07, 09). The algorithm was evaluated by ground measurements from a station in Lhasa and a reference dataset from FLASHFlux. The …

Determining The Viability Of Recent Storms As Modern Analogues For North-Central Gulf Of Mexico Paleotempestology Through Sedimentary Analysis And Storm Surge Reconstruction, Joshua Caleb Bregy

Master's Theses

The northern Gulf of Mexico has been devastated by recent intense storms. Camille (1969) and Katrina (2005) are two notable hurricanes that made landfall in virtually the same location in Mississippi. However, fully understanding the risks and processes associated with hurricane impacts is impeded by a short and fragmented instrumental record. Paleotempestology could potentially use modern analogues from intense storms in this region to extend the hurricane record back to pre-observational time. Existing empirically based models can back-calculate surge heights over coastal systems as a function of transport distance, particle settling velocity, and gravitational acceleration. We collected cores in a …

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

Applying Newton’S Law Of Cooling When The Target Keeps Changing Temperature, Such As In Stratospheric Ballooning Missions, James Flaten, Kaye Smith, Erick Agrimson

2017 Academic High Altitude Conference

Newton’s Law of Cooling describes how a “small” system, such as a thermometer, comes to thermal equilibrium with a “large” system, such as its environment, as a function of time. It is typically applied when the environment is in thermal equilibrium and the conditions are such that the thermal decay time for the thermometer is a constant. Neither of these conditions are met when measuring environmental (i.e. atmospheric) temperature using a thermometer mounted in a payload lofted into the stratosphere under weather balloons. In this situation the thermometer is in motion so it encounters layer after layer of atmosphere which …

Umphlett Qci June 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Limited Frost Damage to Crops this Spring

Wet Conditions Cause Mixed Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Crop Modeling For Assessing And Mitigating The Impacts Of Extreme Climatic Events On The Us Agriculture System, Zhenong Jin

Open Access Dissertations

The US agriculture system is the world’s largest producer of maize and soybean, and typically supplies more than one-third of their global trading. Nearly 90% of the US maize and soybean production is rainfed, thus is susceptible to climate change stressors such as heat waves and droughts. Process-based crop and cropping system models are important tools for climate change impact assessments and risk management. As data- science is becoming a new frontier for agriculture growth, the incoming decade calls for operational platforms that use hyper-local growth monitoring, high-resolution real-time weather and satellite data assimilation and cropping system modeling to help …

The Wais Divide Deep Ice Core Wd2014 Chronology – Part 2: Annual-Layer Counting (0–31 Ka Bp), Michael Sigl, Tyler J. Fudge, Mai Winstrup, Jihong Cole-Dai, David Ferris

Dartmouth Scholarship

We present the WD2014 chronology for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core. The chronology is based on counting of annual layers observed in the chemical, dust and electrical conductivity records. These layers are caused by seasonal changes in the source, transport, and deposition of aerosols. The measurements were interpreted manually and with the aid of two automated methods. We validated the chronology by comparing to two high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. For the Holocene, the cosmogenic isotope records of Be from WAIS Divide and C for IntCal13 demonstrated …

Effects Of Meteorological Conditions On Sulfur Dioxide Air Pollution In The North China Plain During Winter Of 2006–2015, Chase C. Calkins

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The last decade has seen frequent occurrences of severe air pollution episodes of high concentration in SO₂ during winters in the North China Plain (NCP). Using satellite data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulations, and National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP) meteorological reanalyzes, this study examines meteorological and synoptic conditions associated with these air pollution episodes during winters of 2006-2015. OMI-based data suggest a large decrease (~30% in area average) of emission since 2010. Statistical analyzes show that meteorological conditions associated with the top 10% of OMI-based high days are found in average to …

Upscaling Methane Emission Hotspots In Boreal Peatlands, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brucher, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin

Biological and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Upscaling the properties and effects of small-scale surface heterogeneities to larger scales is a challenging issue in land surface modeling. We developed a novel approach to upscale local methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of the water table pattern generated by the Hummock–Hollow model, a microtopography resolving model for peatland hydrology. We introduce this parameterization of methane hotspots in a global model-like version of the Hummock–Hollow model that underestimates methane emissions. We tested the robustness of the parameterization by simulating methane emissions for the …

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Nitrous Oxide In The Atmosphere: First Measurements Of A Lower Thermospheric Source, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Peter F. Bernath, Bernd Funke

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, as well as one of the most significant anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere. The satellite-based instrument Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer has been observing the Earth's limb since 2004 and derives profiles of N₂O volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere to the lower thermosphere. The resulting climatology shows that N₂O is continuously produced in the lower thermosphere via energetic particle precipitation and enhanced N₂O is present at all latitudes, during all seasons. The results are consistent with an N₂O …

Agriculture Causes Nitrate Fertilization Of Remote Alpine Lakes, Elizabeth J. Hundey, Sam S.D. Russell, Fred Longstaffe, Katrina A. Moser

Earth Sciences Publications

Humans have altered Earth’s nitrogen cycle so dramatically that reactive nitrogen (Nr) has doubled. This has increased Nr in aquatic ecosystems, which can lead to reduced water quality and ecosystem health. Apportioning sources of Nr to specific ecosystems, however, continues to be challenging, despite this knowledge being critical for mitigation and protection of water resources. Here we use D¹⁷O, d¹⁸O and d¹⁵N from Uinta Mountain (Utah, USA) snow, inflow and lake nitrate in combination with a Bayesian-based stable isotope mixing model, to show that at least 70% of nitrates in aquatic systems are anthropogenic …

Source Apportionment Of Atmospheric Particulate Matter In Developing Countries Using Trace Elements And Stable Metal Isotope Ratios, Nitika Dewan

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The work presented herein details the source apportionment of atmospheric particulate matter in developing countries (Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia, metropolitan cities in Northern India, and Shenzhen in China) using trace elements and stable metal isotope ratios. The first study focused on the development of a novel method for the concomitant separation of rare-earth elements in environmental samples of any geological origin. The separation procedure is based on three extraction chromatographic materials, referred to as Sr.Spec, TRU.Spec, and Ln.Spec. This triple column arrangement enables the simultaneous isolation of pure Sr and Nd fractions in less than one day and with great …

Climate-Relevant Land Use And Land Cover Change Policies, Rezaul Mahmood, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Clive Mcalpine

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate. Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, …

Support For Drought Response And Community Preparedness: Filling The Gaps Between Plans And Action, Kelly Helm Smith, Crystal J. Stiles, Michael Hayes, Christopher Carparelli

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This chapter examines which levels of government handle various aspects of drought, as well as interactions between levels of government, providing examples from states across the western United States. It also takes a look at aspects of drought that fall outside traditional lines of authority and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a discussion on how states support local drought response, the chapter details and contrasts how California and Colorado track public water supply restrictions, and describes Colorado’s process for incorporating input from river basins across the state into its water plan. Case studies focus on drought planning in the Klamath …

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Assessing The Utility Of Imaging Radar For Identifying White Sand Vegetation Structure, Jessica Rosenqvist

Dissertations and Theses

White sand vegetation communities are wide spread across South America; found in Peru, Venezuela, Brazilian Amazon and Guyana. They are distributed in patches ranging from <1 km2 to greater than tens of square kilometers and their origins and locations are still not well understood. The communities are related to a variety of factors (soil type, flooding, nutrient content and fire); hence a precise definition for the ecosystem is still not fully defined. Nevertheless, the result of these variations creates a unique environment for endemic plant and animal species to thrive. Furthermore, analysis of these areas has been very scattered and identification of local white sand areas (<1 km2) have not been accomplished. In addition, identification of these locations has currently only used optical satellite imagery (Landsat, MODIS). Hence, in this project, we have attempted to use synthetic aperture radar to create a classification system to locate the white sand vegetation systems. The goal is to be able to apply this method to identify white sand vegetation distribution across South America. The region of focus for this thesis has been in Aracá, a large white sand area located in Brazil in the State of Amazonas. Due to the lack of ground reference data, a classified map by Capurucho et al. (2013), generated using Landsat data, was used as a comparison and reference. JAXA’s ALOS-1 PALSAR (L-band), ESA’s Sentinel-1A (C-band) and NASA’s SRTM sensors were used for land classification. As microwave signals penetrate clouds and haze, the advantage of using sensors with this wavelength allows for an unobstructed coverage of the landscape all year round. Different combinations of polarizations and wavelengths were used during the analysis to try and separate the white sand vegetation from water and terra firme forest. The resulting classification images showed a 30% agreement with the classification map by Capurucho et al. It is important to note, that this number is in fact an agreement percentage as the map used was a classification image and coarse in resolution (due to the lack of reference data). Therefore, this value does not imply a bad classification. Future work will include time-series data, precise ground reference points and data from other sensors such as ALOS-2 PALSAR, to improve the classification accuracy.

Evidence For The Drainage Of A Superglacial Lake As The Source Of Seismic Waves Recorded At A Regional Distance, Erik J. Orantes

Dissertations and Theses

Surface melting during the summer leads to the formation of lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet surface, known as supraglacial lakes. Some of these lakes drain through cracks in their beds and release the water into the ice sheet. Previous studies suggest that some of the water reaches the bedrock, enabling basal sliding, which could potentially increase glacial discharge (Sundal et al., 2009). Das et al. (2008) showed that supraglacial lake drainage can be accompanied by seismic activity, but little work has been done on the regional detection of such waves. The present study analyzes seismic data for the period …

Umphlett Qci 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Late Hard Freeze

Late Freezes Extended Growing Season

Warm Fall Delays Bird Migrations

Monitoring Water Resources Across the Basin

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Validation Of The Global Distribution Of Co2 Volume Mixing Ratio In The Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere From Saber, L. Rezac, Y. Jian, J. Yue, J. M. Russell Iii, A. Kutepov, R. Garcia, K. Walker, P. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite has been measuring the limb radiance in 10 broadband infrared channels over the altitude range from ~ 400 km to the Earth's surface since 2002. The kinetic temperatures and CO₂ volume mixing ratios (VMRs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere have been simultaneously retrieved using SABER limb radiances at 15 and 4.3 μm under nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) conditions. This paper presents results of a validation study of the SABER CO₂ VMRs obtained with a two-channel, self-consistent …