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2019

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Articles 571 - 600 of 674

Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Dust Storms And The Dispersal Of Aquatic Invertebrates In The Chihuahuan Desert Ecoregion, Jose Rivas Jr. Jan 2019

Dust Storms And The Dispersal Of Aquatic Invertebrates In The Chihuahuan Desert Ecoregion, Jose Rivas Jr.

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The Chihuahuan Desert surrounding El Paso, Texas is one of the most intense sources of dust in the Western Hemisphere. Within this vast desert are ephemeral wetlands with micrometazoan propagules contained within their sediment egg banks. Dispersal of aquatic microinvertebrates between habitats is vital for the success of their populations. Passive dispersal of the propagules provides an escape mechanism from unfavorable conditions. Upon desiccation of these habitats, windstorms can potentially transport propagules mixed within entrained sediments across regional scales. To study this process, I collected falling sediment from 91 windstorms, with 59 samples collected at the University of Texas at …

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An Observation And Modeling Analysis Of The April 16, 2011 North Carolina Tornado Outbreak, Caitlin Kelly Jan 2019

An Observation And Modeling Analysis Of The April 16, 2011 North Carolina Tornado Outbreak, Caitlin Kelly

Summer Community of Scholars Posters (RCEU and HCR Combined Programs)

No abstract provided.

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Modeling The Seasonal Cycle Of Iron And Carbon Fluxes In The Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica, P. St-Laurent, P. L. Yager, R. M. Sherrell, H. Oliver, M. S. Dinniman, S. E. Stammerjohn Jan 2019

Modeling The Seasonal Cycle Of Iron And Carbon Fluxes In The Amundsen Sea Polynya, Antarctica, P. St-Laurent, P. L. Yager, R. M. Sherrell, H. Oliver, M. S. Dinniman, S. E. Stammerjohn

CCPO Publications

The Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) is distinguished by having the highest net primary production per unit area in the coastal Antarctic. Recent studies have related this high productivity to the presence of fast-melting ice shelves, but the mechanisms involved are not well understood. In this study we describe the first numerical model of the ASP to represent explicitly the ocean-ice interactions, nitrogen and iron cycles, and the coastal circulation at high resolution. The study focuses on the seasonal cycle of iron and carbon, and the results are broadly consistent with field observations collected during the summer of 2010–2011. The simulated …

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Towards Comprehensive Observing And Modeling Systems For Monitoring And Predicting Regional To Coastal Sea Level, Rui M. Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia M. Domingues, Tal Ezer, Xuebin Zhang Jan 2019

Towards Comprehensive Observing And Modeling Systems For Monitoring And Predicting Regional To Coastal Sea Level, Rui M. Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia M. Domingues, Tal Ezer, Xuebin Zhang

CCPO Publications

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our very limited capacity to predict SL change on coastal scales, over various timescales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of …

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Regional Differences In Sea Level Rise Between The Mid-Atlantic Bight And The South Atlantic Bight: Is The Gulf Stream To Blame?, Tal Ezer Jan 2019

Regional Differences In Sea Level Rise Between The Mid-Atlantic Bight And The South Atlantic Bight: Is The Gulf Stream To Blame?, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Recent studies appear to show that a "hot spot" for accelerated sea level rise (SLR) shifted around 2010 from the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) to the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and south Florida. The role of the Gulf Stream (GS) in this shift was thus investigated. The findings show that in the ~15–20 years before, SLR was accelerating in the MAB due to weakening and southward shifting of the GS. After 2010, however, SLR started slowing down in the MAB due to strengthening and northward shifting of the GS. Thermosteric effects seen in altimeter data indicate a warming trend south of …

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Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord Jan 2019

Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord

CCPO Publications

The hurricane project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) was established in 1970. By the mid-1970s pioneering research had led to the development of a new hurricane model. As the reputation of the model grew, GFDL was approached in 1986 by the director of the National Meteorological Center about establishing a collaboration between the two federal organizations to transition the model into an operational modeling system. After a multiyear effort by GFDL scientists to develop a system that could support rigorous requirements of operations, and multiyear testing had demonstrated its superior performance compared …

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The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review Of Past And Future Nonastronomical Changes In Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, And Future Implications, Ivan D. Haigh, Mark D. Pickering, J. A. Mattias Green, Brian K. Arbic, Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, David F. Hill, Kevin Horsburgh, Tom Howard, Déborah Idier, David A. Jay, Leon Jänicke, Serena B. Lee, Malte Müller, Michael Schindelegger, Stefan A. Talke, Sophie-Berenice Wilmes, Philip L. Woodworth Jan 2019

The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review Of Past And Future Nonastronomical Changes In Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, And Future Implications, Ivan D. Haigh, Mark D. Pickering, J. A. Mattias Green, Brian K. Arbic, Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, David F. Hill, Kevin Horsburgh, Tom Howard, Déborah Idier, David A. Jay, Leon Jänicke, Serena B. Lee, Malte Müller, Michael Schindelegger, Stefan A. Talke, Sophie-Berenice Wilmes, Philip L. Woodworth

CCPO Publications

Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to nonastronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally coherent, positive, and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, …

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Impacts Of Basin-Scale Climate Modes On Coastal Sea Level: A Review, Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Philip Thompson, Tal Ezer, Hindu Palanisamy, Xuebin Zhang, Catia M. Domingues, Lei Zhang, Dongliang Yuan Jan 2019

Impacts Of Basin-Scale Climate Modes On Coastal Sea Level: A Review, Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Philip Thompson, Tal Ezer, Hindu Palanisamy, Xuebin Zhang, Catia M. Domingues, Lei Zhang, Dongliang Yuan

CCPO Publications

Global sea level rise (SLR) associated with a warming climate exerts significant stress on coastal societies and low-lying island regions. The rates of coastal SLR observed in the past few decades, however, have large spatial and temporal differences from the global mean, which to a large part have been attributed to basin-scale climate modes. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about climate modes’ impacts on coastal sea level variability from interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Relevant climate modes, their impacts and associated driving mechanisms through both remote and local processes are elaborated separately for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic …

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Gelatinous Zooplankton Abundance And Benthic Boundary Layer Currents In The Abyssal Northeast Pacific: A 3-Yr Time Series Study, Kenneth Smith, Christine Huffard, Paul Mcgill, Alana Sherman, Thomas Connolly, Susan Von Thun, Linda Kuhnz Jan 2019

Gelatinous Zooplankton Abundance And Benthic Boundary Layer Currents In The Abyssal Northeast Pacific: A 3-Yr Time Series Study, Kenneth Smith, Christine Huffard, Paul Mcgill, Alana Sherman, Thomas Connolly, Susan Von Thun, Linda Kuhnz

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

Gelatinous zooplankton are prominent fauna in the deep ocean, especially in the water column associated with the sea floor. This interface zone, the benthic boundary layer, is critical to biogeochemical exchanges between pelagic and benthic communities. A conspicuous member of this benthic boundary layer community in the abyssal Northeast Pacific (Sta. M; 4000 m depth) is the hydrozoan medusa, Benthocodon pedunculata. A 3-year time-series study was conducted of B. pedunculata from October 2014 to November 2017 using an autonomous time-lapse camera system and acoustic current meter deployed on the sea floor. Remotely operated vehicle benthic video transects and collections were …

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Extratropical Precursors To The Onset Of Madden-Julian Oscillation Deep Convection Over The Western Indian Ocean, Jennifer Anne Gahtan Jan 2019

Extratropical Precursors To The Onset Of Madden-Julian Oscillation Deep Convection Over The Western Indian Ocean, Jennifer Anne Gahtan

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) deep convection often initially forms over the western Indian Ocean and is frequently preceded by upper tropospheric circulation precursors. These precursors include subtropical cyclonic Rossby gyres near eastern Africa and Southwest Asia, coherent extratropically circumnavigating Rossby wave trains extending back across the Atlantic, and tropically circumnavigating easterlies. Easterly acceleration associated with the circulation precursors may help to reduce large-scale subsidence over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to convective onset; when intraseasonal easterly acceleration reaches the western extent of a region of intraseasonal upper level westerlies, it produces upper-tropospheric divergence, providing a forcing for upward motion.

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Extreme Typhoon Rainfall Of Taiwan, Alexa Henny Jan 2019

Extreme Typhoon Rainfall Of Taiwan, Alexa Henny

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Taiwan has experienced large increases in extreme rainfall (ER, defined as top 1% by daily total) over the past 60 years. Using 1 km gridded daily rainfall data provided by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Adaptation Information Platform (TCCIP), we analyze Taiwan’s rainfall means and trends seasonally and as a function of intensity. ER accounts for about 17% of rainfall in Taiwan, but across much of the island, the 1960-2015 ER trend exceeds the non-extreme rainfall (NR) trend. Most ER occurs during the months of May – October, when warm, southwesterly monsoon flow and frequent typhoons lead to high …

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Detection And Attribution Of Wind Energy Changes In The Contiguous United States, North Atlantic Ocean And European Sector In The Twentieth Century, Shengzhe Chen Jan 2019

Detection And Attribution Of Wind Energy Changes In The Contiguous United States, North Atlantic Ocean And European Sector In The Twentieth Century, Shengzhe Chen

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Wind power is playing a greater role as an alternative energy resource to fossil fuels. The prediction skills for hourly and daily forecasts of hub-height (80 – 100 m) wind power are increasingly reliable. However, regarding historical trends in wind energy availability (an important variable for determining wind farm capacity factors), little is known about the interannual and decadal variability of the hub-height wind speed. With climate change uncertainty now incorporated into wind energy resource assessment, insight into the relative contribution from the internal variability of the climate system versus the external forcing is presently lacking. Here, Empirical Orthogonal Function …

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Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts Of The 10-12 December 2013 Lake-Effect Snow Event: : Sensitivity To Microphysical, Planetary Boundary Layer, And Surface Layer Parameterizations, William Massey Bartolini Jan 2019

Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts Of The 10-12 December 2013 Lake-Effect Snow Event: : Sensitivity To Microphysical, Planetary Boundary Layer, And Surface Layer Parameterizations, William Massey Bartolini

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Lake-effect snow (LeS) presents a substantial forecast challenge for convection-permitting models, due in part to uncertainties in the parameterization of microphysical (MP) and planetary boundary layer / surface layer (PBL/SL) processes. Here we focus on understanding these uncertainties for a LeS event that occurred during 10–12 December 2013 during the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign. Throughout this event, long-lake-axis-parallel snowbands persisted downwind of the eastern shore of Lake Ontario, leading to snowfall accumulations as high as 105 cm (liquid precipitation equivalent of 64.5 mm) on the Tug Hill Plateau.

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An Underground World : Creative Writing In The Dystopian Genre, Mary Kathleen Brown Jan 2019

An Underground World : Creative Writing In The Dystopian Genre, Mary Kathleen Brown

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Despite its importance for the creation of a compelling story, world-building is often overlooked in literary studies due to its complexity, with studies instead favoring analysis of plot, character, or situation. The dystopian genre dictates why world-building is a crucial element for fictional writing because it showcases a manipulated relationship between writer and reader. Using the overlap in possible worlds and actual worlds, this paper explores how world-building incites change in the actual world due to a reader correlating the possible world with their own. By way of example, my paper features the first three chapters of my dystopian novel, …

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Design And Implementation Of The New York State Mesonet Flux Tower Network, Jason Michael Covert Jan 2019

Design And Implementation Of The New York State Mesonet Flux Tower Network, Jason Michael Covert

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The New York State Mesonet (NYSM) was established in 2014 to provide high-quality real-time meteorological data for weather monitoring and forecasting, emergency management, and research aimed at improving numerical weather prediction. The mainstay of the network consists of 126 surface weather stations located throughout New York State with an average spacing of 30 km. In 2017, 17 of the sites (“flux” sites) were equipped with additional (permanent) instrumentation to measure short and long-wave radiation components, soil heat flux, and turbulent fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and carbon dioxide (CO2). The mesoscale resolution of the 17-site NYSM Flux Tower …

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Precipitation Characteristics And Their Dependence On Data Resolution And Model Physics, Di Chen Jan 2019

Precipitation Characteristics And Their Dependence On Data Resolution And Model Physics, Di Chen

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

To fully characterize precipitation, one often needs not only the accumulative amount (A), but also its frequency (F), intensity (I) and duration (D). These characteristics have large impacts on Earth’s hydrologic cycle. Aiming for a comprehensive understanding, this dissertation investigates precipitation characteristics and their dependence on data resolution and model physics using observational datasets and comprehensive global climate models (GCMs).

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An Examination Of North Pacific Jet Regimes Conducive To Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Along The West Coast Of North America, Eli Jacob Turasky Jan 2019

An Examination Of North Pacific Jet Regimes Conducive To Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Along The West Coast Of North America, Eli Jacob Turasky

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Every year, the west coast of North America experiences significant economic damage and societal disruption due to the extreme precipitation associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs). ARs not only may produce significant economic and societal impacts, but also may contribute disproportionately to precipitation anomaly statistics along the west coast of the North America. The purpose of this study is to investigate: 1) the average state and evolution of the NPJ prior to AR landfall for selected categories of landfalling ARs; and 2) the dynamical processes applicable to the aforementioned categories of landfalling ARs that are linked to NPJ variability in …

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Remote Sensing Of Planetary Boundary Layer Height And Particulate Matter 2.5 In New York State Mesonet Network, Bhupal Shrestha Jan 2019

Remote Sensing Of Planetary Boundary Layer Height And Particulate Matter 2.5 In New York State Mesonet Network, Bhupal Shrestha

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Abstract:

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The Role Of The Subtropical Jet In Severe Dry Season Caribbean Rainstorms, Marshall D. Pfahler Jan 2019

The Role Of The Subtropical Jet In Severe Dry Season Caribbean Rainstorms, Marshall D. Pfahler

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The Caribbean region experiences a bimodal climate with a dry season during November/December–May/June and a wet season encompassing the remainder of the year. Although significant high-impact heavy rainfall events in the Caribbean are typically associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) during the wet season, significant heavy rainfall events can also occur during the Caribbean dry season without contributions from TCs. Dry season Caribbean rainstorms (CRs) can produce infrastructure- and life-threatening conditions through flooding, mudslides, and damaging winds. The most severe dry season CRs can require international aid for vital recovery resources. Severe dry season CRs can produce rainfall totals that substantially …

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Variability Of African Easterly Waves, Yuan-Ming Cheng Jan 2019

Variability Of African Easterly Waves, Yuan-Ming Cheng

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are the most important rain modulators in the sub-Saharan Africa and precursors for tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic. While most previous studies have focused on the mean structure and dynamics of AEWs, evidence has shown that AEWs can vary substantially in terms of their structure and characteristics. Therefore, the overarching goal of this dissertation is to document the variability of AEWs and understand its causes. The goal is accomplished through two different but complementary approaches: (1) statistical analysis and (2) vorticity tracking.

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Potential Effects Of Regional Soil Moisture Anomalies On The Great Plains Low-Level Jet, Matthew Arturo Campbell Jan 2019

Potential Effects Of Regional Soil Moisture Anomalies On The Great Plains Low-Level Jet, Matthew Arturo Campbell

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) contributes to Great Plains (GP) warm season water resources (precipitation), wind resources, and severe weather outbreaks. Past research has shown that synoptic and local mesoscale physical mechanisms (Holton and Blackadar mechanisms) are jointly required to explain GPLLJ variability. Although local mechanistic theories hinge upon soil moisture-planetary boundary layer (PBL) interactions, the effect of regional soil moisture anomalies on GPLLJ speed, northward penetration, and propensity for severe weather is not well known.

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A New York State Mesonet Based Analysis Of Squall Line Cold Pool Strength And Uses For Short Term Forecasting, Daniel William Reese Jan 2019

A New York State Mesonet Based Analysis Of Squall Line Cold Pool Strength And Uses For Short Term Forecasting, Daniel William Reese

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The recently finished New York State Mesonet (NYSM) has a network of 126 standard surface sites and 17 vertical profiler sites across the state. This high density network allows for a wide range of potential uses in research and operational forecasting. One such use is in the area of severe thunderstorm forecasting, where mesoscale and storm scale features can become highly important. This thesis examines three case studies, events from 2017-2018 that produced long-lived, high impact squall lines which moved across the state. As the squall line’s cold pool has long been recognized to play a critical role in squall …

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Characterization Of Ambient Aerosols And Their Evolution Under Various Atmospheric Conditions In The Northeast U.S, Jie Zhang Jan 2019

Characterization Of Ambient Aerosols And Their Evolution Under Various Atmospheric Conditions In The Northeast U.S, Jie Zhang

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The University at Albany Atmospheric Sciences Research Center (ASRC) mobile laboratory, which includes a High Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS), and several gas sensors, etc., has been used to characterize atmospheric aerosols and air quality at different locations in the Northeastern US (including urban, forest, and mountain areas) and the aerosol evolutions under a variety of atmospheric conditions (including extreme weather, fog, and cloud, etc.). In this dissertation, I present the findings of the several field measurements using the ASRC mobile lab, focusing on the influences of extreme events (including high O3, heatwave, …

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On The Frequency, Structure, And Characteristics Of Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses, Sarah Dunn Ditchek Jan 2019

On The Frequency, Structure, And Characteristics Of Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses, Sarah Dunn Ditchek

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Taking 6-h IR brightness temperature differences, Dunion et al. (2014) found that in major hurricanes, an area of cold cloud tops routinely propagated radially outward from the storm core at around 5–10 m/s over the course of each day. They defined this feature as a “diurnal pulse” and created a 24-h conceptual clock that identified at which radius the coldest cloud tops would be located based on local time (LT). Due to the inherent predictability of these pulses, this dissertation was undertaken to gain a deeper understanding of their frequency, structure, and characteristics.

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A Revised Technique For Measuring Vertical Velocity Using Dropsondes, Timothy Connor Nelson Jan 2019

A Revised Technique For Measuring Vertical Velocity Using Dropsondes, Timothy Connor Nelson

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The earliest iterations of dropsondes in the 1960's obtained vertical velocity by measuring the geometric fall speed of the dropsonde and the true airspeed (TAS) of the dropsonde from a pitot-static. The vertical velocity errors from this methodology were claimed to be ±1 m s-1. Subsequent dropsonde iterations used various forms of the drag force equation to obtain vertical velocity. The accuracy of these drag force-based measurements, however, are also quite large at ±1–2 m s-1. In this dissertation, an attempt is made to improve vertical velocity errors by revisiting and revising the pitot-static-derived TAS methodology on the eXpendable Digital …

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The Simulated Impact Of Snow Cover And Soil Moisture On Convective Precipitation Within The Rocky Mountains Under Climate Warming, Brendan Charles Wallace Jan 2019

The Simulated Impact Of Snow Cover And Soil Moisture On Convective Precipitation Within The Rocky Mountains Under Climate Warming, Brendan Charles Wallace

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Warm season moist diurnal convection can be particularly sensitive to changes in land surface

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A Multiscale Analysis Of The Rainband And Cellular Structure In Hurricanes Harvey And Irma (2017) Using The Ncar Ensemble, Dylan Card Jan 2019

A Multiscale Analysis Of The Rainband And Cellular Structure In Hurricanes Harvey And Irma (2017) Using The Ncar Ensemble, Dylan Card

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to life and property, and exhibit many severe weather hazards as they make landfall, such as storm surge, strong winds, flooding rains, and tornadoes. Tropical cyclone rainbands are associated with nearly all of these hazards, which can extend hundreds of kilometers inland. Thus, understanding tropical cyclone rainband structure, and the individual convective cells of which rainbands are composed, is important to mitigating risk. Several previous studies have documented the overall structure of tropical cyclone rainbands, including the cells of which they are comprised and the environments in which they are embedded. These studies have …

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Synergistic Effects Of Midlevel Dry Air And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Development, Joshua James Alland Jan 2019

Synergistic Effects Of Midlevel Dry Air And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Development, Joshua James Alland

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This dissertation seeks to better understand how midlevel moisture and vertical wind shear (VWS) modulate tropical cyclone (TC) development. The first component of this dissertation simplifies the objective by focusing solely on how midlevel moisture modulates TC development, utilizing an axisymmetric modeling framework. Results show that low-entropy midlevel air affects the upward vertical mass flux in these experiments through subsidence into the subcloud layer, which results in a longer recovery time before deep convection develops. This process, as well as descending motion closer to the inner core, limits the radial width of deep convection, reduces the area of upward motions, …

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Assessing The Blending Of Numerical Weather Prediction And Satellite-Derived Irradiance, Alexander Kubiniec Jan 2019

Assessing The Blending Of Numerical Weather Prediction And Satellite-Derived Irradiance, Alexander Kubiniec

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This thesis discusses the blending of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) short wave

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Applying Forecast Track And Intensity Diagnostics To High-Impact Northeast Winter Storms, Tomer Burg Jan 2019

Applying Forecast Track And Intensity Diagnostics To High-Impact Northeast Winter Storms, Tomer Burg

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

A conventional forecasting notion is that as lead time decreases, numerical weather prediction models exhibit a leftward (i.e., west) trend in the forecast position of low-pressure systems along the East Coast of the U.S. This left trend, which may turn seemingly weak ocean cyclones into high-impact weather events for the Northeast U.S., is attributed to various potential causes, such as variability in upstream shortwave troughs, or the representation of latent heat release in the NWP models downstream of the trough associated with the incipient cyclone. This study seeks to address whether this rule of thumb holds any significant merit, and …

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