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Articles 91 - 120 of 283

Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Modulation Of Lightning Occurrence By The Solar Wind, Adam L. Baxter Mar 2020

Modulation Of Lightning Occurrence By The Solar Wind, Adam L. Baxter

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning affects military and civilian operations. Characterization of the distribution of global lightning strikes of two detection networks based on solar wind events is analyzed. the median analysis by latitude gave different results for the two network datasets. The KLD pulled out some common features such as the seasonal dependence and a general increase in lightning at the equator. Comparisons between different datasets must be handled carefully. the KLD method may be a way to capture common features, or assess how similar the datasets are. A detailed analysis of the differences between the tow networks detection algorithms and investigating other …


A Method For Routine Pm2.5 Obsercation And Incorporation Into Numerical Weather Prediction, Daniel B. Jagoda Mar 2020

A Method For Routine Pm2.5 Obsercation And Incorporation Into Numerical Weather Prediction, Daniel B. Jagoda

Theses and Dissertations

Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulates aerosol abundance using climatic emission inventories due to a lack of available real-time observation. An advocation to monitor aerosol number concentration with a standardized global sensor network is defended. A comparison between observations from the existing network “PurpleAir” and condensation particle counters (CPC) reveals the necessity of regulated instrumentation when measuring aerosol number concentration. NWP initialization by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) module is capable of augmentation by hourly aerosol observation. The disparity between observed in-situ particulate matter smaller than 2.5-μm in diameter (PM2.5) and Weather Research and Forecasting …


Characterizing Regime-Based Flow Uncertainty, John L. Fioretti Mar 2020

Characterizing Regime-Based Flow Uncertainty, John L. Fioretti

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this work is to develop a regime-based quantification of horizontal wind field uncertainty utilizing a global ensemble numerical weather prediction model. In this case, the Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFSR) data is utilized. The machine learning algorithm that is employed is the mini-batch K-means clustering algorithm. 850 hPa Horizontal flow fields are clustered and the forecast uncertainty in these flow fields is calculated for different forecast times for regions across the globe. This provides end-users quantified flow-based forecast uncertainty.


Localized Effects Of Hurricane Michael (2018) On Total Electron Content, Joanna E.S. Williams Mar 2020

Localized Effects Of Hurricane Michael (2018) On Total Electron Content, Joanna E.S. Williams

Theses and Dissertations

Understanding the connection between terrestrial and space environments is an emerging field of study that can significantly improve operational weather forecasting. In particular, it is well known that tropical cyclones (TCs) and thunderstorms can initiate gravity waves that generate fluctuations in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere. These perturbations can deteriorate and delay the transmission of high-frequency (HF) communications, such as emergency services, amateur radio, and aviation. This study investigates changes in TEC according to the number of lightning ashes and the rainfall rates associated with Hurricane Michael (2018). A composite analysis will be performed using the GOES …


Simulation Of Sporadic-E Parameters Using Phase Screen Method, Daniel W. Stambovsky Mar 2020

Simulation Of Sporadic-E Parameters Using Phase Screen Method, Daniel W. Stambovsky

Theses and Dissertations

A phase screen simulation experiment is designed and implemented to model radio occultation through sporadic-E ionospheric disturbances between a GPS transmitter operating at the L1 frequency and a second receiving satellite in low earth orbit (LEO). Simulations were made to test the linear relationship between plasma intensity and scintillation S4 index both posited (Arras and Wickert, 2018) and contended (Gooch et al., 2020) in previous literature. Results brought into question both the linear relationship and the use of S4 as a whole and an alternate metric was sought.


E700xd Portable Doppler Radar Energy Systems Analysis, Brandon M. Bailey, Torrey J. Wagner, Jada Williams Dec 2019

E700xd Portable Doppler Radar Energy Systems Analysis, Brandon M. Bailey, Torrey J. Wagner, Jada Williams

Faculty Publications

Occurring in industrialized nations, inexpensive and abundantly available power is routinely taken for granted. However, energy resilience and to a lesser extent price are key concerns when considering potential solutions for disaster response, disaster relief, or military operations. The Department of Defense (DoD) currently uses a 5 kW generator to power the E700XD portable Doppler radar system when grid power is unavailable [1]. While the radar has an approximate power consumption of 2.5 kW, there is a potential for higher demand due to weather conditions [2]. This paper examines the cost of operating a currently installed generator, compared to the …


Atmospheric Propagation Of High Energy Lasers: Thermal Blooming Simulation, Jonathan Gustafsson, Benjamin F. Akers, Jonah A. Reeger, Sivaguru S. Sritharan Apr 2019

Atmospheric Propagation Of High Energy Lasers: Thermal Blooming Simulation, Jonathan Gustafsson, Benjamin F. Akers, Jonah A. Reeger, Sivaguru S. Sritharan

Faculty Publications

High Energy Laser (HEL) propagation through turbulent atmosphere is examined via numerical simulation. The beam propagation is modeled with the paraxial equation, which in turn is written as a system of equations for a quantum fluid, via the Madelung transform. A finite volume solver is applied to the quantum fluid equations, which supports sharp gradients in beam intensity. The atmosphere is modeled via a coupled advection-diffusion equation whose initial data have Kolmogorov spectrum. In this model the combined effects of thermal blooming, beam slewing, and deep turbulence are simulated.


Source Term Estimation Of Atmospheric Pollutants Using An Ensemble Of Hysplit Concentration Simulations, Casey L. Zoellick Mar 2019

Source Term Estimation Of Atmospheric Pollutants Using An Ensemble Of Hysplit Concentration Simulations, Casey L. Zoellick

Theses and Dissertations

In support of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring and nuclear event detection, this study works toward source term estimation (STE) of dispersive pollutants using a novel method|an ensemble of forward trajectory concentration simulations using a meteorology-coupled dispersion model. Traditionally a mathematically and physically rigorous problem, STE of a plume of atmospheric pollutants can be solved in a variety of ways depending on what is known regarding the emission, but little has been studied on the sensitivity between the horizontal resolution of the meteorology data in relation to the dispersion model and the results derived from known concentrations at multiple locations. …


Variations Of Heavy Ion Abundances Relative To Proton Abundances In Large Solar Energetic Particle Events, Joseph F. Round Mar 2019

Variations Of Heavy Ion Abundances Relative To Proton Abundances In Large Solar Energetic Particle Events, Joseph F. Round

Theses and Dissertations

Past studies of heavy ions (Z>2) in large (E>10 MeV/nuc) gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events have focused on elemental abundances relative to those of a single element, such as Fe or O, and have often neglected ionized H (the primary element used for space weather purposes). This work analyzes SEP abundances in a group of 15 large gradual SEP events from 2000 to 2015 across the energy range of 13.5-50.7 MeV. Hourly flux averages of He, C, O, Mg and Fe from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Solar Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/SIS) are compared to two-hour averages of H flux …


Global Ionosonde And Gps Radio Occultation Sporadic-E Intensity And Height Comparison, Joshua Y. Gooch Mar 2019

Global Ionosonde And Gps Radio Occultation Sporadic-E Intensity And Height Comparison, Joshua Y. Gooch

Theses and Dissertations

A global, multi-year comparison of low and mid-latitude COSMIC GPS radio occultation (RO) sporadic-E (Es) plasma frequency and altitude and Digisonde blanketing frequency (fbEs) and altitude within 150 km and 30 minutes of each other. RO methods used to estimate the intensity of the Es layer include the scintillation index S4, total electron content (TEC) with both a constant and variable Es cloud thickness, and an Abel transform. The S4 and TEC with varying thickness techniques both under-represent the fbEs values while the TEC with constant thickness and Abel transform better estimate Digisonde fbEs values. …


Quantifying Uncertainty Of Ensemble Transport And Dispersion Simulations Using Hysplit, Daniel W. Bazemore Mar 2019

Quantifying Uncertainty Of Ensemble Transport And Dispersion Simulations Using Hysplit, Daniel W. Bazemore

Theses and Dissertations

Uncertainty associated with determining the source location of nuclear pollutants in the atmosphere after a nuclear fallout using a numerical model is difficult to determine. Uncertainty can originate from input data (meteorological and emissions), internal model error, physics parameterizations, and stochastic processes. This study uses the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model with data from the 1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) (Ferber et al. 1986) and simulating six nuclear detonations (Rolph et al. 2014) to quantify and communicate uncertainty in ensemble dispersion simulations. This is accomplished by utilizing an ensemble of forward trajectory simulations varying initial conditions …


Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasting Over Africa Using The Galwem, William A. Hanson Mar 2019

Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasting Over Africa Using The Galwem, William A. Hanson

Theses and Dissertations

From the hot, arid Sahara Desert to the humid, West African monsoon, Africa is a continent with vastly different weather and climate patterns from one region to the next. For this reason, thunderstorm forecasting over Africa has presented significant difficulty. The Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI) was developed for the Americas and provides a more accurate convective forecasting index than the conventional indices for thunderstorm forecasting, including the K, Total Totals, Showalter, and Lifted indices. Previous research using the GDI via the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model data over Africa showed promising results for areal coverage (Donndelinger 2018), especially during the spring …


Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski Mar 2019

Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning poses a significant hazard to space launch operations to include ground processing, launch window forecasts, and rocket-triggered lightning events. Two lightning initiation forecast methods using weather radar developed in Gremillion and Orville (1999) and Travis (2015) for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida are tested in a new geographical region. This is accomplished by applying the highest-performing radar parameters from Gremillion and Orville (1999): reectivity (Z) ≥ 40 dBZ for two consecutive volume scans at the -10°C thermal height and Travis (2015): Z ≥ 36.5 dBZ with differential reflectivity (ZDR) ≥ 0.31 dB …


Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer Mar 2019

Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the radiative transfer code, Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR), developed by the Center for Directed Energy at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Many multi- and hyperspectral applications are limited to the nighttime due in large part to daytime solar background noise and it is advantageous to be able to quantify this background noise using LEEDR. Real-time meteorological surface observations, numerical weather prediction, and aerosol particle concentrations were used to investigate the accuracy of LEEDR radiances simulations. Comparisons between simulations and measured values show that aerosol concentrations, weather predictions, and meteorological observations provide enough information …


Effect Of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables To Modify Forecast Predictions, Sarah A. Gold Mar 2019

Effect Of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables To Modify Forecast Predictions, Sarah A. Gold

Theses and Dissertations

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) records daily rain and lightning probabilistic forecasts and the associated binary event outcomes. Subsequently, they evaluate forecast performance and determine necessary adjustments with an implemented verification process. For deterministic outcomes, weather forecast analysis typically utilizes a Tradition Contingency Table (TCT) for verification, however the 45 WS uses an alternative tool, the Probabilistic Contingency Table (PCT). Using the TCT for verification requires a threshold, typically at 50%, to dichotomize probabilistic forecasts. The PCT maintains the valuable information in probabilities and verifies the true forecasts being reported. Simulated forecasts and outcomes as well as 2015-2018 45 …


Characterization Of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Microwave Imagery, Amanda M. Nelson Mar 2019

Characterization Of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Microwave Imagery, Amanda M. Nelson

Theses and Dissertations

In the absence of wind speed data from aircraft reconnaissance of tropical cyclones (TCs), analysts rely on remote sensing tools to estimate TC intensity. For over 40 years, the Dvorak technique has been applied to estimate intensity using visible and infrared (IR) satellite imagery, but its accuracy is sometimes limited when the radiative effects of high clouds obscure the TC convective structure below. Microwave imagery highlights areas of precipitation and deep convection revealing different patterns than visible and IR imagery. This study explores application of machine learning algorithms to identify patterns in microwave imagery to infer storm intensity, particularly focusing …


Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Dominick V. Speranza Mar 2019

Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Dominick V. Speranza

Theses and Dissertations

Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) all reside in the thunderstorm capital of the United States. According to the Florida Climate Center, these installations experience more thunderstorms per year than any other place in the United States. It is the mission of the 45th Weather Squadron to provide timely and accurate warnings of weather conditions such as lightning that pose a risk to assets and personnel CCAFS, KSC and PAFB. To aid 45th Weather Squadron forecasters, a network of 30 Electric Field Mills (EFM) was installed in the area in …


A Statistical Analysis Of Steve, Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt, Y. Nishimura, E. Donovan, G. W. Gillies, W. E. Archer, Omar A. Nava, E. L. Spanswick Nov 2018

A Statistical Analysis Of Steve, Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt, Y. Nishimura, E. Donovan, G. W. Gillies, W. E. Archer, Omar A. Nava, E. L. Spanswick

Faculty Publications

There has been an exciting recent development in auroral research associated with the discovery of a new subauroral phenomenon called STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement). Although STEVE has been documented by amateur night sky watchers for decades, it is as yet an unidentified upper atmosphere phenomenon. Observed first by amateur auroral photographers, STEVE appears as a narrow luminous structure across the night sky over thousands of kilometers in the east‐west direction. In this paper, we present the first statistical analysis of the properties of 28 STEVE events identified using Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) …


Estimation Of Atmospheric Turbulence Using Differential Motion Of Extended Features In Time-Lapse Imagery, Santasri R. Bose-Pillai, Jack E. Mccrae, Christopher A. Rice, Ryan A. Wood, Conner E. Murphy, Steven T. Fiorino Oct 2018

Estimation Of Atmospheric Turbulence Using Differential Motion Of Extended Features In Time-Lapse Imagery, Santasri R. Bose-Pillai, Jack E. Mccrae, Christopher A. Rice, Ryan A. Wood, Conner E. Murphy, Steven T. Fiorino

Faculty Publications

We address the design, development, and testing of a pointer/tracker as a probe beam for the purpose of making high-speed, aero-optical measurements of the flow over a scaled beam director turret. The tracker uses retro-reflection of the probe beam off of a Reflexite annulus surrounding the turret. The constraints of the design required a near-total-commercial off the shelf system that could be quickly installed and removed in a rented aircraft. Baseline measurements of environmental vibrations are used to predict pointing performance; mitigation of line-of-sight jitter on the probe beam is achieved through passive isolation and the design of relay optics. …


The Geographic Distribution Of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida, Tania M. Garza Mar 2018

The Geographic Distribution Of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida, Tania M. Garza

Theses and Dissertations

Strong winds from downbursts pose a significant hazard to personnel and launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The CCAFS/KSC complex has a robust mesonet from which an 18 year (1995-2012) warm-season convective wind climatology (WSCWC) was developed (Koermer 2017). While the frequency of downbursts in the area has been determined, the frequency at the individual tower locations has not. The 5-minute peak wind data from the WSCWC was analyzed to determine the geographic distribution of downburst frequency across Spaceport Florida. For this project a downburst was determined by the threshold of …


Impacts Of Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams On High Frequency Operations As A Function Of Modeled Particle Energy Flux, Nathan D. Smith Mar 2018

Impacts Of Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams On High Frequency Operations As A Function Of Modeled Particle Energy Flux, Nathan D. Smith

Theses and Dissertations

Space weather events can cause irregularities within the ionosphere; in particular, this research examines sub-auroral polarization streams (SAPS), as their accompanying irregularities and effects can degrade high-frequency (HF) signal propagation. It is known that the strongest westerly current drifts delineating SAPS are associated with a deep ionospheric trough, which in turn contaminates HF data with clutter from the non-standard ionosphere. Having a methodology to track and identify these occurrences on current computational architecture would provide operators enhanced situational awareness in knowing to expect degradation in HF processes. This study has discovered a weak, yet significant, exponentially decaying correlation between maximum …


Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins Mar 2018

Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins

Theses and Dissertations

Satellites with microwave remote sensing capabilities can be utilized to study atmospheric phenomena through high-level cloud cover (particularly cirrus), an advantage over visible and infrared bands, which only sense cloud tops. This unique capability makes microwave imagery ideal for studying the cloud structures of tropical cyclones (TCs) in detail, and relating these features to TC intensity. Techniques to estimate the intensity of TCs using infrared imagery, such as the Dvorak technique, have been used in TC forecasting for 40 years. However, due to the inherent temporal limitations of microwave imagery, no such similar technique exists for the microwave spectrum. This …


A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger Mar 2018

A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger

Theses and Dissertations

Severe wind gusts and thunderstorms have been difficult to forecast in Africa. Traditional convective forecast tools (e.g. Total Totals Index, Lifted Index, K Index (KI) and Convective Available Potential Energy) do not accurately portray potential for thunderstorms in Africa. This research effort used the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), a convective index created for the tropics, and assess its applicability to northern Africa. GDI was produced for the Caribbean and Central America, and utilized temperature, moisture, mid-level stability, dry air entrainment and an elevation factor to calculate convective potential. In this research, GDI and KI were calculated using Global Forecast System (GFS) …


Evaluation Of A Cloud Detection Technique Using Spatial And Radiometric Thresholds For Near Infrared Satellite Imagery, William J. Graff Mar 2018

Evaluation Of A Cloud Detection Technique Using Spatial And Radiometric Thresholds For Near Infrared Satellite Imagery, William J. Graff

Theses and Dissertations

Knowledge of cloud location in near infrared (NIR) imagery is of interest to the meteorological community given the wavelengths greater spatial resolution compared to longwave infrared and its potential nighttime applications. This method consists of an algorithm that can be employed by multiple instrument platforms. It analyzes changes between satellite image radiances and a seasonal synthetic background radiance image. The NIR sensor bands of the Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite instruments are used to evaluate the performance of a monochromatic change detection technique designed to locate areas …


Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden Mar 2018

Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are important to space launch, aviation, and public safety. While prior studies have primarily focused on atmospheric conditions leading to lightning onset, less research has been dedicated to the challenging problem of predicting lightning cessation. This study verifies the probabilistic lightning cessation model developed by Joseph Patton (2017) at Florida State University for use by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The Washington, D.C. greater metropolitan area, which presents a climate different to that of central …


Forecasting Lightning Initiation Utilizing Dual-Polarization Radar Parameters Over Washington, D.C., Sarah A. Olsen Mar 2018

Forecasting Lightning Initiation Utilizing Dual-Polarization Radar Parameters Over Washington, D.C., Sarah A. Olsen

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are vital to space launch, aviation, and public safety. Prior studies by Woodard (2011), Thurmond (2014), and Travis (2015) show that dual-polarization radar can be utilized to identify the presence of hydrometeors necessary for cloud charging. These studies emphasized that a combination of radar reflectivity (Z) and differential reflectivity (ZDR) predictors have the potential to improve forecast skill of lightning initiation over methods that rely on Z alone (Roeder and Pinder, 1998; Yang and King, 2010). Travis (2015) discovered two parameters, when used together, produced the best results: Z ≥ 36.5 dBZ and ZDR …


Oblique Longwave Infrared Atmospheric Compensation, Daniel S. O'Keefe Sep 2017

Oblique Longwave Infrared Atmospheric Compensation, Daniel S. O'Keefe

Theses and Dissertations

This research introduces two novel oblique longwave infrared atmospheric compensation techniques for hyperspectral imagery, Oblique In-Scene Atmospheric Compensation (OISAC) and Radiance Detrending (RD). Current atmospheric compensation algorithms have been developed for nadir-viewing geometries which assume that every pixel in the scene is affected by the atmosphere in nearly the same manner. However, this assumption is violated in oblique imaging conditions where the transmission and path radiance vary continuously as a function of object-sensor range, negatively impacting current algorithms in their ability to compensate for the atmosphere. The techniques presented here leverage the changing viewing conditions to improve rather than hinder …


Improved Atmospheric Characterization For Hyperspectral Exploitation, Nathan P. Wurst Jun 2017

Improved Atmospheric Characterization For Hyperspectral Exploitation, Nathan P. Wurst

Theses and Dissertations

Airborne hyperspectral imaging (HSI) in the LWIR has shown utility in material detection and identification. This research seeks to determine the most effective methods to perform model-based atmospheric compensation of LWIR HSI data by comparing results obtained from different atmospheric profiles. The standard model for mid-latitude summer (MLS) and radiosonde data are compared to the National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) numerical weather predictions and the Extreme and Percentile Environmental Reference Tables (ExPERT). The two latter atmospheric profiles are generated using the Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR) software. MLS has been a standard starting point for …


Estimation Of Temporal Variations In Path-Averaged Atmospheric Refractive Index Gradient From Time-Lapse Imagery, Santasri Basu, Jack E. Mccrae, Steven T. Fiorino, Jared Przelomski Sep 2016

Estimation Of Temporal Variations In Path-Averaged Atmospheric Refractive Index Gradient From Time-Lapse Imagery, Santasri Basu, Jack E. Mccrae, Steven T. Fiorino, Jared Przelomski

Faculty Publications

The sea level vertical refractive index gradient in the U.S. Standard Atmosphere model is −2.7×10−8  m−1 at 500 nm. At any particular location, the actual refractive index gradient varies due to turbulence and local weather conditions. An imaging experiment was conducted to measure the temporal variability of this gradient. A tripod mounted digital camera captured images of a distant building every minute. Atmospheric turbulence caused the images to wander quickly, randomly, and statistically isotropically and changes in the average refractive index gradient along the path caused the images to move vertically and more slowly. The temporal variations of …


Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White Jul 2016

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …