Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Comparison Of The Refractive Index Structure Constant Derived From Numerical Weather Prediction (Nwp) Models And Thermosonde Data, De Leon C. Narcisse

Theses and Dissertations

An accurate depiction of atmospheric turbulence is required for successful employment of a viable airborne laser for the Department of Defense (DOD). The ABL Special Program Office (SEC) which is tasked by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) bas not designated any particular numerical weather model that is tasked exclusively to model optical turbulence This research compares CLEAR1, 2 X CLEAR I and thermosonde derived values of the refractive index structure constant to optical turbulence values derived from several numerical weather prediction models currently in use by the DOD. The models used were the fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5), the Coupled …

Forecasting Excessive Rainfall And Low-Cloud Bases East Of The Northern Andes And Mesoscale Convective Complex Movement In Central South America, Marc R. Gasbarro

Theses and Dissertations

This research produces better forecast tools for SOUTHCOM's 25th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) over multiple areas of operation in South America. Heavy rainfall and low-cloud base events along the northeastern Andes foothills are examined, as well as, mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) in Central South America (CSA). Low clouds, fog, and flooding rains hamper daily Department of Defense (DoD) counter-drug operations in Northwestern South America (NWSA). In addition, fierce MCCs interfere with joint-military exercises in CSA.

Computer Modeling Of Tornado Forces On A Cubic Building Using Large Eddy Simulation, R. Panneer Selvam, Paul C. Millett

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

A tornado changes its wind speed and direction rapidly; therefore, it is difficult to study the effects of a tornado on buildings in a wind tunnel. The status of the tornado-structure interaction and various models of the tornado wind field found in literature are surveyed. Three dimensional computer modeling work using the turbulence model based on large eddy simulation is presented. The effect of a tornado on a cubic building is considered for this study. The Navier-Stokes (NS) equations are approximated by the finite difference method and solved by an implicit procedure. The force coefficients are plotted in time to …

New Evidence For Enhanced Ocean Primary Production Triggered By Tropical Cyclone, I. Lin, W. Timothy Liu, Chun-Chieh Wu, George T. F. Wong, Chuanmin Hu, Zhiqiang Chen, Wen-Der Liang, Yih Yang, Kon-Kee Liu

OES Faculty Publications

[1] New evidence based on recent satellite data is presented to provide a rare opportunity in quantifying the long-speculated contribution of tropical cyclones to enhance ocean primary production. In July 2000, moderate cyclone Kai-Tak passed over the South China Sea (SCS). During its short 3-day stay, Kai-Tak triggered an average 30-fold increase in surface chlorophyll-a concentration. The estimated carbon fixation resulting from this event alone is 0.8 Mt, or 2-4% of SCS's annual new production. Given an average of 14 cyclones passing over the SCS annually, we suggest the long-neglected contribution of tropical cyclones to SCS's annual new production may …

Natural Disasters: An Integrated Curriculum Unit, Grades 3-5, Institute For The Development Of Gifted Education, Ricks Center For Gifted Children, University Of Denver

Ricks Curriculum Units Series

An integrated curriculum is an instructional approach that connects the disciplines to an underlying theme or topic. Immersing students in an integrated-thematic unit provides the backdrop for experiences to occur across the disciplines. Shaping coursework around integrated themes is especially appropriate for gifted students, however using an integrated-thematic curriculum is appropriate for all learners as it develops students' abilities to make connections, to solve problems by looking at multiple perspectives, and to integrate information from different fields of experience. An integrated-thematic curriculum permits students to be active participants in their own learning as they design their own explorations and take …

Transport Out Of The Antarctic Polar Vortex From A Three-Dimensional Transport Model, Shuhua Li, Eugene Cordero, David J. Karoly

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] A three-dimensional chemical transport model is utilized to study the transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex during the southern hemisphere spring. On average, over five consecutive years between 1993 and 1997, horizontal transport out of the vortex into the midlatitude stratosphere is smaller than vertical transport into the troposphere. However, there is significant interannual variability in the magnitude of mass exchange, which is related to year-to-year fluctuations in planetary wave activity. In 1994 the net loss of the vortex tracer mass in September is similar to that in October. However, the relative mass flux entering the midlatitude stratosphere …

Long Range Forecast Possibilities For X-Band Radar Construction On Shemya, Brian K. Schroeder

Theses and Dissertations

Current moisture initialization sources lack the spatial and temporal resolution required for mesoscale moisture forecast accuracy critical for military operations. The Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite constellation provides an opportunity to extract accurate moisture observations based on the refraction of the GPS signal through the troposphere. GPS-derived precipitable water (PW) from two different research areas was independently compared with the Air Force Weather Agency s (AFWA's) MM5 PW model output. Results were concurrent with similar studies comparing GPS-derived PW with numerical weather models. The mean correlation in CONUS was 92.5%, while in Alaska it was 72.8%. Mean model biases were …

An Examination Of Anomalously Low Column Ozone In The Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes During 1997, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] Observations from both ground-based and satellite instruments show record low column ozone abundance between 20°S and 40°S during 1997. The 1997 monthly averaged column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) is up to 25 Dobson units (DU) lower than the TOMS climatological mean (1979–1996) and up to 20 DU below the previous record low values. Observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show that below average ozone concentrations during 1997 were confined primarily to the lower stratosphere. Residual circulation statistics calculated from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office temperature analyses indicate that circulation anomalies during 1997 can account for …

Quantification Of The Effects Of Data Denial And Limitation In Mm5 Initialization On Forecast Accuracy, Robert W. Evans

Theses and Dissertations

The current hub-and-spoke network in the European Theater is made up of locations built and organized around a Cold War threat. The threat of large-scale attrition warfare seems to have passed, and the threat of multiple, smaller scale contingencies has placed greater demands on the US military's ability to transport equipment and personnel to multiple locations simultaneously. This research effort utilizes a Multiple Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to analyze optimal hub locations in USEUCOM. The model used to analyze the network was developed in Microsoft Excel and followed MOLP techniques to determine the trade-offs between the two constructs of …

The Horizontal Extent Of Lightning Based On Altitude And Atmospheric Temperature, David R. Vollmer

Theses and Dissertations

Due to multiple factors, including an increase in military operations tempo and the improved resolution of meteorological models, demand for access to customized aviation weather products has increased exponentially. This has given rise to a need for a multi-purpose interactive aviation weather product generation software solution. This software solution must be platform-independent, multiple data source access configurable, robust, extensible or upgradeable, user-friendly, and an improvement over current visualization applications used in the operational military aviation weather community. This thesis determines whether Unidata MetApps meets these criteria. A software reuse and component-based engineering approach was taken in this thesis. Two experimental …

Gps-Derived Precipitable Water Compared With The Air Force Weather Agency's Mm5 Model Output, Patricia A. Vollmer

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning poses a threat to aircraft in flight. To mitigate this threat, the U.S. Air Force requested a study of lightning distances. Three-Dimensional lightning data were examined for this study, spanning 1 March 1997 to 31 May 2001 and obtained from the Lightning Detection and Ranging System (LDAR) at the Kennedy Space Center, FL. The LDAR data points were first grouped into lightning flashes and branches using spatial and temporal criteria. Rawinsonde data were vertically interpolated to determine the temperature at the flash source point and each branch end point. The horizontal distance from flash sources to branch end was …

Suitability Of Unidata Metapps For Incorporation In Platform-Independent User-Customized Aviation Weather Products Generation Software, Harmen P. Visser

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC) is tasked to provide long-range seasonal forecasts for worldwide locations. Currently, the best long-range temperature forecasts the weather community has are the climatological standard normals. This study creates a stepping-stone into the solution of long-range forecasting by finding a process to predict temperatures better than those using climatological standard normals or simple frequency distributions of occurrences. Northern Hemispheric teleconnection indices and the standardized Southern Oscillation index are statistically compared to three-month summed Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) at 14 U.S. locations. First, linear regression was accomplished. The results showed …

Verification Of Mm5 Cloud Microphysics Schemes For East Asia, Dean J. Carter

Theses and Dissertations

Using the 3-Dimensional Variational Analysis data assimilation scheme and the (MM5), input observations were denied in three different categories: total, upper air, and surface observation denial. Two control groups were run using all available data as received by AFWA. The main control group used a 6 hours old first guess as a baseline. The data denied test cases and the secondary control group used a 30-hour old first guess because it was not possible to deny data from the first guess. The secondary control group was used to estimate errors resulting from the use of different first guess forecasts between …

Verification And Comparison Of Polar Mm5 And Afwa Mm5 Forecasts Over Alaska, William E. Courtemanche

Theses and Dissertations

This research compares biases of the Reisner Mixed-Phase Explicit Moisture Microphysics graupel and non-granpel schemes to determine if including graupel and riming processes within the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) will lead to improved forecasts of winter precipitation for Korea and Japan. MM5 forecasts were generated every 12 hours for a 20 days case period from January 1998. Model derived meteorological fields were interpolated to the station coordinates of four verification sites within the East Asian domain and radiosonde observations were used to compare the differences between the average temperature and water vapor errors of the two cloud microphysics schemes. …

Designing An Algorithm To Predict The Intensity Of The Severe Weather Season, Hugh J. Freestrom

Theses and Dissertations

The Mesoscale Model 5th Generation (MM5) is used for operational support to Air Force missions in the Alaskan Theater. The 11th Operational Weather squadron has identified problems with the MM5 producing excessively warm surface temperatures. The Polar MM5 (PMM5), developed by the Byrd Polar Research Center for high latitude ice sheets, is tested over the Alaskan domains used by the Air Force Weather Agency to determine the utility in replacing the MM5 with the PMM5. The verification of surface temperature, pressure and wind as well as upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and relative humidity of 27-hour PMM5 forecasts are compared to …

Synthesis Of 3-Dimensional Lightning Data And Weather Radar Data To Determine The Distance That Naturally Occurring Lightning Travels From Thunderstorms, Lee A. Nelson

Theses and Dissertations

Military base weather stations are required to issue lightning warnings to protect military equipment and personnel. The issuance of warnings is based on a 5 nautical mile (n mi) distance criterion. This criterion appears to have evolved over time as a balance between safety and mission impact. The goal of this thesis is to challenge the 5 n mi lightning warning criteria by quantifying the distance that CG lightning travels. A secondary goal is to examine the characteristics of the peak current of CG lightning strokes to determine if a relationship exists between peak current, the distance a stroke travels, …

Exploration Of Teleconnection Indices For Long-Range Seasonal Temperature Forecasts, Robb M. Randall

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research was to examine the possibility of establishing guidance for lightning avoidance and lightning warning criteria based upon lightning radar reflectivity signatures. Determining how far naturally occurring lightning normally travels from thunderstorms can provide insight to decision makers concerning in-flight and ground safety measures. 3D lightning data are merged with archived weather radar data. To analyze the radar characteristics of the lightning data, radar data are interpolated to a 3D grid of reflectivity. Lightning flashes were analyzed to resolve the reflectivity of the flash origin and to determine the distance of the flash origin from the …

Estimation Of Atmospheric Precipitable Water Using The Global Positioning System, David A. Garay

Theses and Dissertations

This research focuses on using the Global Positioning System (GPS) for atmospheric precipitable water (PW) estimation. Water vapor, measured in terms of PW, plays a crucial role in atmospheric processes and short-term weather forecasting. Traditional methodologies for measuring atmospheric water vapor distributions have known inadequacies, resulting in the motivation to gain good water vapor characterization via GPS. The ability to accurately forecast cloud formation and other weather phenomenon is critical, especially in the case of military operations. Using a network of GPS receivers, it is possible to estimate precipitable water throughout the network region with better accuracy than traditional methods …

Application Of The Wind Gust Estimate And Comparison To The Afwa Mm5 Wind Gust Algorithm, Kevin W. Lacroix

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) runs the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) as their main mesoscale weather forecast model. One of the post-processing procedures is a diagnostic algorithm, which is used to help identify convective and non-convective wind gusts. O. Brassuer has identified a new Wind Gust Estimate (WGE), as a physically based method of computing non-convective wind gusts. The WGE surmises that Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) transfers the momentum of faster upper-air winds to the surface, overcoming the buoyant energy of the surface layer. This work converts Brassuer's WGE to FORTRAN code and utilizing post-processed CONUS AFWA …

Extratropical Transition Of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Climatology And Mean Structure Changes, Mark R. Sinclair

Applied Aviation Sciences - Prescott

A database of tropical cyclone best track and intensity information for the southwest Pacific Ocean basin is used to construct a 28-year climatology for tropical cyclones that move into middle latitudes. Of the nine or so tropicalcyclones that form each year, an average of about three can be expected to migrate south of 35°S, with the greatest fraction in March. Storms entering the Tasman Sea west of New Zealand (NZ) move almost due south on average and retain greater intensity than those to the east of NZ, where storms decay quickly while moving rapidly away to the southeast. Storms east …

The Horizontal Extent Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Over The Kennedy Space Center, Todd M. Mcnamara

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) runs the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) as their main mesoscale weather forecast model. One of the post-processing procedures is a diagnostic algorithm, which is used to help identify convective and non-convective wind gusts. O. Brassuer has identified a new Wind Gust Estimate (WGE), as a physically based method of computing non-convective wind gusts. The WGE surmises that Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) transfers the momentum of faster upper-air winds to the surface, overcoming the buoyant energy of the surface layer. This work converts Brassuer's WGE to FORTRAN code and utilizing post-processed CONUS AFWA …

Is The Ozone Hole Over Your Classroom?, Eugene Cordero

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

First year university science students are surveyed about their understanding of the ozone layer, ozone depletion and the effect of ozone depletion on Australia. Although students seem to understand the basic function of the ozone layer, over 65% of students incorrectly believe that the ozone hole is over Australia, and over 90% of students incorrectly believe that the ozone hole is present during the summer. Together these ideas seem to explain why nearly 75% of students blame the ozone hole for Australia’s high rate of skin cancer. Survey results also indicate that students seem confused about global warming, and the …

Land Use Change And Modification Of Near-Surface Thermal Records In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mahmood, Ken Hubbard, Christy Carlson

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The North American Great Plains have experienced a rapid overturning of natural grasslands to agricultural land use over the last century. Moreover, in some areas more than 80% of the land use has changed from dry land to irrigated agriculture during the second half of the twentieth century. It is speculated that these changes have modified near-surface atmospheric condition and our modeling study seems to support this. To identify changes in land surface- atmospheric modifications we have applied a soil moistureenergy balance model at three locations in Nebraska: Mead, York, and McCook. The model was applied for three land uses …

Ozone And Tracer Transport Variations In The Summer Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere, E. C. Cordero, S. R. Kawa

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Constituent observations from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) in combination with estimates of the residual circulation are used to examine the transport and chemical budgets of HF, CH₄ and O₃ in the summer Northern Hemisphere. Budget calculations of HF, CH₄ and O₃ show that the transport tendency due to the residual circulation increases in magnitude and is largely opposed by eddy motions through the summer months. Ozone budget analyses show that between 100 and 31 hPa, the magnitudes of the mean circulation and eddy transport terms increase through the summer months, producing tendencies that are …

A Model Of Precipitation Rates In Kentucky, 1965-1996, Kevin Cary

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Hourly precipitation data from thirty cooperative stations in Kentucky from 1965 to 1996 were used to determine the diurnal distribution of precipitation rates. Descriptive summaries for the diurnal distribution for each climate division in Kentucky and for Kentucky as a whole were calculated. In each case, the trends were similar. Precipitation rates increased into the afternoon and then decreased until sunrise. A stochastic model was developed to estimate mean seasonal precipitation rates in Kentucky by using regional and localized parameters. More than half of the variation (r2 = 0.57) in precipitation rates can be explained by the following variables: 1) …

Mitigation Of Water Vapor Interference For Infrared Polarization-Modulated Gas Filter Correlation Radiometry, David K. Lockwood

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Gas filter correlation radiometry (GFCR) is a high-resolution, high-specificity technique for sensing gaseous species. A variation of absorption spectroscopy, GFCR has a long-proven record on orbital platforms for quantitative measurements of atmospheric constituents, as well as common usage in ground-based sensing applications. PMGFCR (Polarization-modulated GFCR) is a recent refinement of the technique with several advantages over the traditional method, including reducing the number of photodetectors required, increased sensitivity, and elimination of moving parts.

To date, no infrared remote sensors have successfully measured nitric oxide (NO) in vehicle exhaust due to spectral overlap by strong water vapor (H₂O_{v …}

Evolution Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Discharges In Tornadic Thunderstorms, Wendy L. Seaman

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force operations are directly impacted by weather on a daily basis. Erroneous forecasts negatively impact mission readiness and consequently cost the government time, in terms of wasted man-hours, and money. Advanced forecast lead-time could make a difference to minimize loss to both USAF personnel and assets. This study examined lightning data from 64 storm events from 1995-2000 in search of unique lightning signatures indicative of tornadic activity. Overall flash rates, percentage of positive flashes, positive and negative peak currents and multiplicity for each case were separated into two categories based on tornado intensity and season of occurrence. Based on …

Validation And Assessment Of Dmsp Electron Temperatures In The Topside Ionosphere, Bradford S. Green

Theses and Dissertations

Geomagnetic disturbances in the near earth space environment can adversely affect numerous military and Department of Defense (DoD) systems and operations. To improve the prediction accuracy of such disturbances, the next generation of space environment forecast models aims to automatically ingest real-time ionospheric measurements. This research validates and assesses one such measurement - the Defense Military Satellite Program (DMSP) measured electron temperature (T_e). DMSP T_e data were validated against near simultaneous incoherent scatter radar (ISR) T_e measurements from Millstone Hill, MA and Sondrestrom, Greenland between Winter 1996 and Summer 2000. Of the 37 Millstone and six …

Development Of Predictors For Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Activity Using Atmospheric Stability Indices, Kenneth C. Venzke

Theses and Dissertations

A detailed examination was performed on several commonly applied atmospheric stability indices and lightning activity from 1993 to 2000 to determine the indices usefulness as predictive tools for determining cloud-to-ground lightning activity. Predetermined radii of 50 nautical miles around upper-air stations in the Midwest U.S. were used for the lightning summaries. Also explored is an improvement upon the commonly accepted thresholds of the stability indices as general thunderstorm indicators. An improvement was found and new threshold ranges were developed for relating stability index values to lightning occurrence. Traditional statistical regression methods failed to find a significant predictive relationship. By examining …

Analyzing The Effects Of Meteorology On Radar Measured Index Of Refraction Structure Parameter, Jeffrey W. Budai

Theses and Dissertations

Forecasting optical turbulence is essential for the Air Force's Airborne Laser program to optimize placement of aircraft. To find bow meteorology affects C_n², the intensity of turbulence in the index of refraction, case studies of synoptically interesting times are first chosen. Correlation coefficients are then computed between radar measured C_n² and meteorological quantities. The potential for mechanically turbulent activity is looked at. In the analysis of this work, six meteorological features were found likely to affect C_n². Two features associated with affecting potential refractivity, and thus C_n², are jets …