Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Day/Night Visible Satellite Images, Frederick R. Mosher

Applied Aviation Sciences - Daytona Beach

Visible satellite images are very helpful for a wide variety of users. In particular, they are helpful in identifying areas of clouds and fog for general aviation pilots who must fly within sight of ground. However, visible satellite images have several major drawbacks, such as at night the visible pictures are black. Another problem is that it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between high clouds and low clouds. While the infrared channel can be used at night, frequently the low clouds and fog are near the temperature of the ground, so low clouds do not show up well on infrared …

Loop Current Warming By Hurricane Wilma, Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Dong-Ping Wang, S. J. Fan, Xun-Qiang Yin

CCPO Publications

Hurricanes mix and cool the upper ocean, as shown here in observations and modeling of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the passage of hurricane Wilma. Curiously, the upper ocean around the Loop Current warmed prior to Wilma's entrance into the Gulf. The major cause was increased volume and heat transports through the Yucatan Channel produced by storm-induced convergences in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Such oceanic variability may have important impacts on hurricane predictions.

Role Of Anomalous Warm Gulf Waters In The Intensification Of Hurricane Katrina, Menas Kafatos, D. Sun, Ritesh Gautam, Z. Boybeyi, Ruixin Yang, G. Cervone

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The year 2005 experienced several strong hurricanes intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall that severely damaged the Gulf States, especially Hurricane Katrina. Remarkable similarities between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and major hurricane (categories 3 and higher) activity over the Gulf are identified. However, the intensification of individual hurricanes may not necessarily be temporally and spatially coincident with the distribution of warm waters or high sea surface temperature (SST). High SST values are found in advance of significant intensification of Hurricane Katrina. We emphasize that high SSTA which occurred at the right time and right place was …

Diurnal Temperature Range Over The United States: A Satellite View, D. Sun, R. T. Pinker, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important climate change index. Information on this parameter comes primarily from sparse and unevenly distributed observations of shelter air temperature. In this study, five years of GOES- 8 based estimates of land surface temperature (LST) over the United States are used to evaluate DTR at high spatial resolution. The spatial and temporal patterns that emerged show a high degree of consistency with independent satellite estimates of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Specifically, the arid regions in the western and central U.S. have larger DTRs than the eastern United States or the northwest coast. …

Modification Of Precipitation By Coastal Orography In Storms Crossing Northern California, Curtis N. James, Robert A. Houze Jr.

Applied Aviation Sciences - Prescott

This study compiles and interprets three-dimensional Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data during a 2.5-yr period and examines the typical orographic effects on precipitation mainly associated with winter storms passing over coastal northern California.The three-dimensional mean reflectivity patterns show echo structure that was generally stratiform from over the ocean to inland over the mountains. The flow above the 1-km level was strong enough to be unblocked by the terrain, and the mean echo pattern over land had certain characteristics normally associated with an unblocked cross-barrier flow, both on the broad scale of the windward slopes of the coastal mountains and …

A New Pathway For Communicating The 11-Year Solar Cycle Signal To The Qbo, Eugene C. Cordero, Terrence R. Nathan

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] The response of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to zonal-mean ozone perturbations consistent with the 11-year solar cycle is examined using a 2 1/2 dimensional model of the tropical stratosphere. Unique to this model are wave-ozone feedbacks, which provide a new, nonlinear pathway for communicating solar variability effects to the QBO. Model simulations show that for zonal-mean ozone perturbations representative of solar maximum (minimum), the diabatic heating due to the wave-ozone feedbacks is primarily responsible for driving a slightly stronger (weaker) QBO circulation and producing a slightly shorter (longer) QBO period. These results, which are explained via an analytical …

Applications Of Integrated Data Viewer – Idv In An Introductory Meteorology Class For Non-Science Majors, Ricardo C. Nogueira

Masters Theses

Computer products developed to visualize and integrate meteorological products with real-time data can create a virtual reality of the atmosphere. These advanced technologies help educators to improve teaching techniques in the classroom for science and non-science majors and increase the students' interest in learning as well. One of these products, the Integrated Data Viewer (IDV), was recently developed by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) project, Unidata, to visualize and integrate geoscience data. This study compares students' performance in the laboratory sessions using IDV-based and MANUAL-based exercises. Comparison of lab scores with exam scores of questions on the same topic …

Local Adjustment Of The Background Error Correlation For Surface Analyses Over Complex Terrain, David T. Myrick, John D. Horel, Steven M. Lazarus

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

The terrain between grid points is used to modify locally the background error correlation matrix in an objective analysis system. This modification helps to reduce the influence across mountain barriers of corrections to the background field that are derived from surface observations. This change to the background error correlation matrix is tested using an analytic case of surface temperature that encapsulates the significant features of nocturnal radiation inversions in mountain basins, which can be difficult to analyze because of locally sharp gradients in temperature. Bratseth successive corrections, optimal interpolation, and three-dimensional variational approaches are shown to yield exactly the same …

Development Of A Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (Dmsp) F-15 Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst) Index, James M. Bono

Theses and Dissertations

As the DoD's use of space and space assets increases, so does its need for timely and accurate predictions of space weather conditions. A good understanding of the data from satellites together with data from ground stations can help model and determine variations in the space environment. An accurate, real-time Disturbance storm-time (Dst) index would be a primary input into current and future space weather models The Dst index is a measure of geomagnetic activity used to assess the severity of magnetic storms. The index is based on the average value of the horizontal component of the Earth's magnetic field …

Hydrographic And Biological Changes In The Taiwan Strait During The 1997-1998 El Niño Winter, S. Shang, C. Zhang, H. Hong, Q. Liu, G. T. F. Wong, C. Hu, B. Huang

OES Faculty Publications

During the 1997–1998 El Niño event, the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Taiwan Strait (TWS) in the winter was ~1.4°C higher than that of the winter climatological mean. The areal ratio of the warm water (≥2°C above the regional mean) to the cold water (≥2°C below the regional mean) in the TWS increased by 25% while the area of the eutrophic water (chlorophyll a >1 mg m^-3) was halved. Field observations also indicate that the mixed layer in the TWS became more nutrient-poor during this winter. These observations are consistent with a diminished advection of the …

Flowers Of Ice- Beauty, Symmetry, And Complexity: A Review Of The Snowflake: Winter's Secret Beauty, John A. Adam

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

(First paragraph) Growing up as a child in southern England, my early memories of snow include trudging home from school with my father, gazing at the seemingly enormous snowdrifts that smoothed the hedgerows, fields and bushes, while listening to the soft “scrunch” of the snow under my Wellington boots. In the country, snow stretching as far as I could see was not a particularly uncommon sight. The quietness of the land under a foot of snow seemed eerie. I cannot remember the first time I looked at snowflakes per se; my interests as a small child were primarily in their …

Extreme Rainfall In Texas: Patterns And Predictability, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Fuqing Zhang, Andrew M. Odins, Boksoon Myoung

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Extreme rainfall, with storm total precipitation exceeding 500 mm, occurs several times per decade in Texas. According to a compositing analysis, the large-scale weather patterns associated with extreme rainfall events involve a northward deflection of the tropical trade winds into Texas, with deep southerly winds extending into the middle troposphere. One such event, the July 2002 South-Central Texas flood, is examined in detail. This particular event was associated with a stationary upper-level trough over central Texas and northern Mexico that established a steady influx of tropical moisture from the south. While the onset of the event was triggered by destabilization …

Orographic Midlatitude Cyclone Modification: An Appalachian Study, Andrew Douglas Augustine

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Forecasting weather within cyclonic systems is increasingly complicated and problematic when the cyclone is modified as it passes over a mountain range. Although much study has been devoted to orographic effects, the degree of influence exerted upon midlatitude cyclones by the undersized Appalachian Mountains has not been fully established. The fundamental goal of this research was to investigate the relationships between the orography of the Appalachian region and three inherent properties exhibited by midlatitude cyclones traversing the region including intensity, movement speed, and heading. The methodology used in this study integrates GIS within a climatological analysis. Initially, a midlatitude surface …

Evaluating Spatial Variability Of Precipitation In Kentucky With Exploratory Data Analysis, Daniel Taylor

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Spatial variability of precipitation is examined over the state of Kentucky and surrounding areas. The study focuses on the analysis of monthly precipitation totals from the period of 1961-2000. The purpose of the study is to develop a set of indices to represent the spatial variability of the study area for a given month. Various exploratory data analysis methods such as variography, kriging, and cluster analysis were used. The study attempts to quantify the second order (local) effects of the spatial variation of precipitation as a means to provide insight into the prediction of precipitation randomness. This task can be …

Seasonal Aeration Rates For The Eastern United States Based On Long-Term Weather Patterns, Michael D. Montross, Samuel G. Mcneill, Thomas C. Bridges

Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications

Most aeration fans are sized to produce a minimum airflow rate of 0.1 m³/min/t (0.1 cfm/bu) in on-farm grain storage structures. At this airflow rate a significant amount of time is required to move a cooling front completely through a bin. The desired grain temperature and prevailing weather conditions will have a significant effect on required fan size. Thirty years of weather data were analyzed for the eastern United States to determine the amount of time available in temperature windows between 0 to 15.C and 0 to 17.C. Contour maps were generated with ArcMap 8.3 for the percentage …

Extratropical Transition Of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Part Ii: Midlatitude Circulation Characteristics, Mark R. Sinclair

Applied Aviation Sciences - Prescott

This second of two papers on extratropical transition (ET) over the southwest Pacific Ocean focuses on the variability of ET. A climatology of ET onset based on a previously described objective technique shows that ET commences 158 of latitude nearer the equator on average than similar cases from the Northern Hemisphere. Characteristic midlatitude circulation patterns accompanying ET near 308S are identified by means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 50 storms. The first eigenvector pattern, explaining nearly half the circulation variability, expresses relaxed and enhanced pressure gradients south of the storm that define composites similar to ‘‘cradled’’ and ‘‘captured’’ …

Soil Moisture As An Indicator Of Weather Extremes, Venkat Lakshmi, Thomas C. Piechota, Ujjwal Narayan, Chunling Tang

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

In this paper, we investigate floods and droughts in the Upper Mississippi basin over a 50-year period (1950–1999) using a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity Model – 3 Layer). Simulations have been carried out between January 1950 and December 1999 at daily time-step and 1/8° spatial resolution for the water budget and at hourly time-step and 1° spatial resolution for the energy balance. This paper will provide valuable insights to the slow response components of the hydrological cycle and its diagnostic/predictive value in the case of floods and droughts. The paper compares the use of the Palmer Drought Severity Index …

A Recommendation For An Enhanced Fujita Scale (Ef-Scale)

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Background

National Weather Service (NWS) personnel who are responsible for rating tornadoes have expressed frustrations in applying the Fujita Scale in a consistent and accurate manner. Weak links in a structural system or a slow-moving storm sometimes lead to an overrating of a tornado event. Several technical articles suggest that wind speeds associated with some descriptions of damage are too high. For example, a 260 mph wind speed is not required to completely destroy a well constructed house and blow away the debris. The damage occurs at significantly lower wind speeds. Minor et al. (1977) and Phan and Simiu (2003) …

Comparison Of A Conceptual Model And Objective Indicators Of Extratropical Transition In The Western North Pacific, Gregory D. Fox

Theses and Dissertations

The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the …

Forecasting Advective Sea Fog With The Use Of Classification And Regression Tree Analyses For Kunsan Air Base, Danielle M. Lewis

Theses and Dissertations

Advective sea fog frequently plagues Kunsan Air Base (AB), Republic of Korea, in the spring and summer seasons. It is responsible for a variety of impacts on military operations, the greatest being to aviation. To date, there are no suitable methods developed for forecasting advective sea fog at Kunsan, primarily due to a lack of understanding of sea fog formation under various synoptic situations over the Yellow Sea. This work explored the feasibility of predicting sea fog development with a 24-hour forecast lead time. Before exploratory data analysis was performed, a geographical introduction to the region was provided along with …

Verification Of Meteorological Data Reports From The Rq-4a Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Steven M. Callis

Theses and Dissertations

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have onboard sensors that continuously record weather data during their missions. This information is extremely valuable to both the meteorological and UAV communities with numerous potential benefits, which include improved weather forecast products and additional weather intelligence for military planners. The value of any dataset is directly related to its accuracy and this research determined the accuracy of weather data obtained from a particular UAV, the RQ-4A Global Hawk. This was accomplished through statistical analysis and comparisons with upper-air data and Atmospheric Slant Path Analysis Model (ASPAM) profiles of the atmosphere. Recommendations are provided for the …

Dust Storm Forecasting For Al Udeid Ab, Qatar: An Empirical Analysis, Kevin S. Bartlett

Theses and Dissertations

Dust storms are extreme weather events that have strong winds laden with visibility reducing and operations limiting dust, The Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) 28th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) is ultimately responsible for forecasting weather in the vast, data denied region of Southwest Asia in support of daily military and humanitarian operations. As a result, the 28th OWS requests a simplified forecasting tool to help predict mesoscale dust events that affect coalition operations at Al Udeid AB, Qatar. This research satisfies the 28th OWS request through an extensive statistical analysis of observational data depicting seasonal dust events over the past …

Feasibility Of Using Classification Analyses To Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification, Jonathan W. Leffler

Theses and Dissertations

Tropical cyclone intensity techniques developed by Dvorak have thus far been regarded by tropical meteorologists as the best identification and forecast schemes available using satellite imagery. However, in recent years, several ideologies have arisen which discuss alternative means of determining typhoon rapid intensification or weakening in the Pacific. These theories include examining channel outflow patterns, potential vorticity superposition and anomalies, tropical upper tropospheric trough interactions, environmental influences, and upper tropospheric flow transitions. It is now possible to data mine these atmospheric parameters thought partly responsible for typhoon rapid intensification and weakening to validate their usefulness in the forecast process. Using …

A Statistically-Based Method For Predicting Fog And Stratus Dissipation, Louis L. Lussier Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine. Ceiling forecasts at Dover AFB and McGuire AFB show improvements over conditional climatology ranging from 1-51% with an average improvement of 19.2% when verified against an independent data set. McGuire AFB visibility forecasts show an average improvement over conditional climatology of 3%. These findings are of particular importance to the Air Force in general and specifically to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron (15 OWS) who produces …

Precipitation Monitoring At Yucca Mountain, Amanda Brandt, Klaus J. Stetzenbach, Drew Coleman, Donald H. Baepler, Amy J. Smiecinski

Publications (YM)

This work will be conducted under Task ORD-FY04-007, “Precipitation Monitoring at Yucca Mountain”. The objective of this task is to measure, with known accuracy, the accumulation and timing of precipitation around Yucca Mountain using tipping bucket rain gauges. The data are used as part of the overall work supporting the net infiltration modeling Analysis Model Report, Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates, and the Performance Confirmation Plan. This work is subject to UCCSN QA program requirements. This SIP presents an independent confirmatory study supporting previously gathered information.

An Analysis Of Simulated Long-Term Soil Moisture Data For Three Land Uses Under Contrasting Hydroclimatic Conditions In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mamood, Kenneth G. Hubbard

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in land surface and atmosphere interactions. It modifies energy balance near the surface and the rate of water cycling between land and atmosphere. The lack of observed SM data prohibits understanding of SM variations at climate scales under varying land uses. However, with simulation models it is possible to develop a long-term SM dataset and study these issues. In this paper a water balance model is used to provide a quantitative assessment of SM climatologies for three land uses, namely, irrigated corn, rain-fed corn, and grass, grown under three hydroclimatic regimes in Nebraska. …

The Extratropical Transition Of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, And Future Directions, Sarah C. Jones, Patrick A. Harr, Jim Abraham, Lance F. Bosart, Peter J. Bowyer, Jenni L. Evans, Deborah E. Hanley, Barry N. Hanstrum, Robert E. Hart, Francois Lalaurette, Mark R. Sinclair, Roger K. Smith, Chris Thorncroft

Applied Aviation Sciences - Prescott

A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms …

Precipitation Monitoring At Yucca Mountain From 10/01/2000 Through 06/30/2003, Amanda Brandt, Klaus J. Stetzenbach, Amy J. Smiecinski

Publications (YM)

This report presents precipitation data collected using tipping bucket rain gauges in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain from October 1, 2000 to June 30, 2003. Operation of the tipping bucket precipitation monitoring network was assumed by the Harry Reid Center for Environmental Studies at University of Nevada, Las Vegas in March 2001. Previously, it had been operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. The precipitation monitoring network consists of 17 tipping bucket gauges at various locations in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain. During the 2001 water year, rainfall averaged 6.16 inches. The following 2002 water year was much drier averaging 1.11 …

Climate: Past, Present, And Future, Saxon E. Sharpe, Rick Forester, Amy J. Smiecinski

Publications (YM)

Climatology and meteorology studies in the Yucca Mountain area have resulted in the following key observations and conclusions: • The present-day arid climate of the Yucca Mountain area can be understood in terms of global-scale atmospheric circulation and regional to-local physiographic features. In general terms, the area is under the influence of mid-latitude westerly winds and associated storm systems during the cool part of the year and and is under the influence of moist air advected from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California during the summer. Temperature and precipitation data from Nevada regions 3 and 4 (southern …

Evaluation Of The Mountain Wave Forecast Model's Stratospheric Turbulence Simulations, Mark S. Allen

Theses and Dissertations

Stratospheric turbulence (Stratoturb) is a well-known hazard to aircraft in flight. Forecasting mountain waves, specifically the breaking of these waves, is necessary to accurately predict the presence of Stratoturb. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) requested a product with the capability of forecasting Stratoturb at 30, 50, and 70 mb using model data currently available, To facilitate their request, the Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM) was acquired from the Naval Research Laboratory. MWFM turbulence forecasts generated twice daily over East Asia, using the AVN and MM5 models for initialization, were compared to S' layer turbulence analyses from the Rawinsonde Observation …