Analysis Commons^™

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …

Mathematical Modeling Of Trending Topics On Twitter, Jonathan S. Skaza

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Created in 2006, Twitter is an online social networking service in which users share and read 140-character messages called Tweets. The site has approximately 288 million monthly active users who produce about 500 million Tweets per day. This study applies dynamical and statistical modeling strategies to quantify the spread of information on Twitter. Parameter estimates for the rates of infection and recovery are obtained using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The methodological strategy employed is an extension of techniques traditionally used in an epidemiological and biomedical context (particularly in the spread of infectious disease). This study, which addresses …

Spatiotemporal Crime Analysis, James Q. Tay, Abish Malik, Sherry Towers, David Ebert

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

There has been a rise in the use of visual analytic techniques to create interactive predictive environments in a range of different applications. These tools help the user sift through massive amounts of data, presenting most useful results in a visual context and enabling the person to rapidly form proactive strategies. In this paper, we present one such visual analytic environment that uses historical crime data to predict future occurrences of crimes, both geographically and temporally. Due to the complexity of this analysis, it is necessary to find an appropriate statistical method for correlative analysis of spatiotemporal data, as well …

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

Studies In Sampling Techniques And Time Series Analysis, Florentin Smarandache, Rajesh Singh

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This book has been designed for students and researchers who are working in the field of time series analysis and estimation in finite population. There are papers by Rajesh Singh, Florentin Smarandache, Shweta Maurya, Ashish K. Singh, Manoj Kr. Chaudhary, V. K. Singh, Mukesh Kumar and Sachin Malik. First chapter deals with the problem of time series analysis and the rest of four chapters deal with the problems of estimation in finite population. The book is divided in five chapters as follows: Chapter 1. Water pollution is a major global problem. In this chapter, time series analysis is carried out …

Rao's Quadratic Entropy And Some New Applications, Yueqin Zhao

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Many problems in statistical inference are formulated as testing the diversity of populations. The entropy functions measure the similarity of a distribution function to the uniform distribution and hence can be used as a measure of diversity. Rao (1982a) proposed the concept of quadratic entropy. Its concavity property makes the decomposition similar to ANOVA for categorical data feasible. In this thesis, after reviewing the properties and providing a modification to quadratic entropy, various applications of quadratic entropy are explored. First, analysis of quadratic entropy with the suggested modification to analyze the contingency table data is explored. Then its application to …

Analysis Of Models For Longitudinal And Clustered Binary Data, Weiming Yang

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation deals with modeling and statistical analysis of longitudinal and clustered binary data. Such data consists of observations on a dichotomous response variable generated from multiple time or cluster points, that exhibit either decaying correlation or equi-correlated dependence. The current literature addresses modeling the dependence using an appropriate correlation structure, but ignores the feasible bounds on the correlation parameter imposed by the marginal means.

The first part of this dissertation deals with two multivariate probability models, the first order Markov chain model and the multivariate probit model, that adhere to the feasible bounds on the correlation. For both the …

Assessing Left-Handedness With Exact And Approximate Confidence Intervals Appropriate For Samples Of Different Sizes, Virginia Gardner

Honors Capstones

Capstone submitted as a graduation requirement for the BSU Honors Program.

On The Evolution Of Probability-Weighting Function And Its Impact On Gambling, Steven Li, Yun Hsing Cheung

Research outputs pre 2011

It is well known that individuals treat losses and gains differently and there exists non-linearity in probability. The asymmetry between gains and losses is highlighted by the reflection effect. The non-linearity in probability is described by the curvature of the probability-weighting function. This paper studies the evolution of the probability-weighting function. It is assumed that the probability weighting for an individual follows a mean-reverting stochastic process. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to study the evolution of the weighting function. The evolution of the probability- weighting function implies that an individual does not treat gains or losses consistently over …

Heckman's Methodology For Correcting Selectivity Bias : An Application To Road Crash Costs, Margaret Giles

Research outputs pre 2011

Aggregate road crash costs are traditionally determined using average costs applied to incidence figures found in Police-notified crash data. Such data only comprise a non-random sample of the true population of road crashes, the bias being due to the existence of crashes that are not notified to the Police. The traditional approach is to label the Police-notified sample as 'non-random' thereby casting a cloud over data analyses using this sample. Heckman however viewed similar problems as 'omitted variables' problems in that the exclusion of some observations in a systematic manner (so-called selectivity bias) has inadvertently introduced the need for an …