Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Air Force Institute of Technology

Discipline
Keyword
Publication Year
Publication
Publication Type

Articles 31 - 60 of 137

Full-Text Articles in Artificial Intelligence and Robotics

Detection And Classification Of Sporadic E Using Convolutional Neural Networks, J. A. Ellis, Daniel J. Emmons, M. B. Cohen Jan 2024

Detection And Classification Of Sporadic E Using Convolutional Neural Networks, J. A. Ellis, Daniel J. Emmons, M. B. Cohen

Faculty Publications

In this work, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are developed to detect and characterize sporadic E (Es), demonstrating an improvement over current methods. This includes a binary classification model to determine if Es is present, followed by a regression model to estimate the Es ordinary mode critical frequency (foEs), a proxy for the intensity, along with the height at which the Es layer occurs (hEs). Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and excess phase profiles from six Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) missions during the years 2008–2022 are used as the inputs of the model. Intensity (foEs) and the …


A Hybrid Cognitive Model For Machine Agents In Project And Action Teams, Joshua A. Lapso Dec 2023

A Hybrid Cognitive Model For Machine Agents In Project And Action Teams, Joshua A. Lapso

Theses and Dissertations

High performing human teams transcend complex domain uncertainty by achieving an emergent state of shared cognition, in which knowledge is organized, represented, and distributed to team members for rapid execution. However, this requires that individuals emit perceivable qualities upon which other members can make inferences about intent. In pursuit of future human and machine team studies, this research presents a hybrid cognitive model for machine agents in fully cooperative and semi-cooperative action and project teams. The hybrid cognitive model unifies the characteristics of the shared mental model and transactive memory system. The resultant model facilitates anytime selection over the two …


Marss: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning For Satellite Swarms, Nicholas J. Yielding Dec 2023

Marss: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning For Satellite Swarms, Nicholas J. Yielding

Theses and Dissertations

Multi-agent systems and swarms in spacecraft formation flying are of ever-increasing importance in a contested space environment—use of multiple spacecraft to contribute to a cooperative mission potentially increases positive outcomes on orbit, while autonomy becomes an ever more important requirement to reduce reaction time in dynamic situations and lower the burden on space operators. This research explores difficult swarm Guidance Navigation and Control (GNC) scenarios using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). DRL polices are trained to provide guidance inputs to agents in multi-agent swarm environments for completing complex, teamwork focused objectives in geosynchronous orbit. An example scenario is explored for a …


Advances In Quaternion-Valued Neural Networks, Jeremiah P. Bill Sep 2023

Advances In Quaternion-Valued Neural Networks, Jeremiah P. Bill

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the construction, optimization, and application of quaternion neural networks (QNNs) to Department of Defense (DoD) related problem sets. QNNs are a type of neural network wherein the weights, biases, and input values are all represented as quaternion numbers. This work provides a critical evaluation of the myriad different quaternion backpropagation derivations that exist in the literature, testing the performance of each on a range of regression problem sets. The optimization dynamics of QNNs are explored, presenting visualizations of QNN loss surfaces and a novel method for assessing the “smoothness” of these loss surfaces. Finally, this dissertation presents …


Machine Learning Data Feature Reduction And Model Optimization, Francisco P. Maturana, Phillip M. Lacasse Jun 2023

Machine Learning Data Feature Reduction And Model Optimization, Francisco P. Maturana, Phillip M. Lacasse

AFIT Patents

For machine learning data reduction and model optimization, a method randomly assigns each data feature of a training data set to a plurality of solution groups. Each solution group has no more than a solution group number k of data features and each data feature is assigned to a plurality of solution groups. The method identifies each solution group as a high-quality solution group or a low-quality solution group. The method further calculates data feature scores for each data feature comprising a high bin number and a low bin number. The method determines level data for each data feature from …


Hierarchical Federated Learning On Healthcare Data: An Application To Parkinson's Disease, Brandon J. Harvill Mar 2023

Hierarchical Federated Learning On Healthcare Data: An Application To Parkinson's Disease, Brandon J. Harvill

Theses and Dissertations

Federated learning (FL) is a budding machine learning (ML) technique that seeks to keep sensitive data private, while overcoming the difficulties of Big Data. Specifically, FL trains machine learning models over a distributed network of devices, while keeping the data local to each device. We apply FL to a Parkinson’s Disease (PD) telemonitoring dataset where physiological data is gathered from various modalities to determine the PD severity level in patients. We seek to optimally combine the information across multiple modalities to assess the accuracy of our FL approach, and compare to traditional ”centralized” statistical and deep learning models.


Predicting Success Of Pilot Training Candidates Using Interpretable Machine Learning, Alexandra S. King Mar 2023

Predicting Success Of Pilot Training Candidates Using Interpretable Machine Learning, Alexandra S. King

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force (USAF) has struggled with a sustained pilot shortage over the past several years; senior military and government leaders have been working towards a solution to the problem, with no noticeable improvements. Both attrition of more experienced pilots as well as wash out rates within pilot training contribute to this issue. This research focuses on pilot training attrition. Improving the process for selecting pilot candidates can reduce the number of candidates who fail. This research uses historical specialized undergraduate pilot training (SUPT) data and leverages select machine learning techniques to determine which factors are associated with …


A Reinforcement Learning Approach To A Beyond Visual Range Air Combat Maneuvering Problem, Caleb A. Taylor Mar 2023

A Reinforcement Learning Approach To A Beyond Visual Range Air Combat Maneuvering Problem, Caleb A. Taylor

Theses and Dissertations

A one-versus-one air combat maneuvering problem is considered wherein a friendly autonomous aircraft must engage and defeat an adversary autonomous aircraft in a beyond visual range environment. The Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM) is leveraged to model the complex and interdependent operations of aircraft, sensors, and weapons utilized in beyond visual range air combat. We formulate a Markov decision process to obtain high-quality decision policies wherein our autonomous aircraft makes maneuvering and missile firing decisions. We utilize a reinforcement learning solution procedure that implements a linear value function approximation to represent state-decision pairs due to the high …


Automated Registration Of Titanium Metal Imaging Of Aircraft Components Using Deep Learning Techniques, Nathan A. Johnston Mar 2023

Automated Registration Of Titanium Metal Imaging Of Aircraft Components Using Deep Learning Techniques, Nathan A. Johnston

Theses and Dissertations

Studies have shown a connection between early catastrophic engine failures with microtexture regions (MTRs) of a specific size and orientation on the titanium metal engine components. The MTRs can be identified through the use of Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) however doing so is costly and requires destruction of the metal component being tested. A new methodology of characterizing MTRs is needed to properly evaluate the reliability of engine components on live aircraft. The Air Force Research Lab Materials Directorate (AFRL/RX) proposed a solution of supplementing EBSD with two non-destructive modalities, Eddy Current Testing (ECT) and Scanning Acoustic Microscopy (SAM). Doing …


Strategic Action Execution Through Regret Matching In Press Diplomacy, Leif D. White Mar 2023

Strategic Action Execution Through Regret Matching In Press Diplomacy, Leif D. White

Theses and Dissertations

To take most advantage of collaboration, negotiation is paramount to succeed in press Diplomacy. Humans use this construct to work towards self victory or sometimes towards an alternative strategic objective undefined in the game’s rules. To emulate this behavior, this thesis examines how to use communication to enable the victory or defeat of any other player in the game. This research develops a press Diplomacy agent, Lyre, that can work to attain these specific objectives in Diplomacy through the regret matching algorithm (RM). We also study how Lyre can begin Diplomacy with the goal to win, then shift strategies to …


Emotion Classification Of Indonesian Tweets Using Bidirectional Lstm, Aaron K. Glenn, Phillip M. Lacasse, Bruce A. Cox Feb 2023

Emotion Classification Of Indonesian Tweets Using Bidirectional Lstm, Aaron K. Glenn, Phillip M. Lacasse, Bruce A. Cox

Faculty Publications

Emotion classification can be a powerful tool to derive narratives from social media data. Traditional machine learning models that perform emotion classification on Indonesian Twitter data exist but rely on closed-source features. Recurrent neural networks can meet or exceed the performance of state-of-the-art traditional machine learning techniques using exclusively open-source data and models. Specifically, these results show that recurrent neural network variants can produce more than an 8% gain in accuracy in comparison with logistic regression and SVM techniques and a 15% gain over random forest when using FastText embeddings. This research found a statistical significance in the performance of …


Leveraging Subject Matter Expertise To Optimize Machine Learning Techniques For Air And Space Applications, Philip Y. Cho Sep 2022

Leveraging Subject Matter Expertise To Optimize Machine Learning Techniques For Air And Space Applications, Philip Y. Cho

Theses and Dissertations

We develop new machine learning and statistical methods that are tailored for Air and Space applications through the incorporation of subject matter expertise. In particular, we focus on three separate research thrusts that each represents a different type of subject matter knowledge, modeling approach, and application. In our first thrust, we incorporate knowledge of natural phenomena to design a neural network algorithm for localizing point defects in transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images of crystalline materials. In our second research thrust, we use Bayesian feature selection and regression to analyze the relationship between fighter pilot attributes and flight mishap rates. We …


A Unified View Of A Human Digital Twin, Michael Miller, Emily Spatz Jun 2022

A Unified View Of A Human Digital Twin, Michael Miller, Emily Spatz

Faculty Publications

The term human digital twin has recently been applied in many domains, including medical and manufacturing. This term extends the digital twin concept, which has been illustrated to provide enhanced system performance as it combines system models and analyses with real-time measurements for an individual system to improve system maintenance. Human digital twins have the potential to change the practice of human system integration as these systems employ real-time sensing and feedback to tightly couple measurements of human performance, behavior, and environmental influences throughout a product’s life cycle to human models to improve system design and performance. However, as this …


Factored Beliefs For Machine Agents In Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes, Joshua A. Lapso, Gilbert L. Peterson May 2022

Factored Beliefs For Machine Agents In Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes, Joshua A. Lapso, Gilbert L. Peterson

Faculty Publications

A shared mental model (SMM) is a foundational structure in high performing, task-oriented teams and aid humans in determining their teammate's goals and intentions. Higher levels of mental alignment between teammates can reduce the direct dialogue required for team success. For decision-making teams, a transactive memory system (TMS) offers team members a map of specialized knowledge, indicating source of knowledge and the source's credibility. SMM and TMS formulations aid human-agent team performance in their intended team types. However, neither improve team performance with a project team--one that requires both behavioral and knowledge integration. We present a hybrid cognitive model (HCM) …


Evolution Of Combined Arms Tactics In Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Teams, Robert J. Wilson, David W. King, Gilbert L. Peterson May 2022

Evolution Of Combined Arms Tactics In Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Teams, Robert J. Wilson, David W. King, Gilbert L. Peterson

Faculty Publications

Multi-agent systems research is concerned with the emergence of system-level behaviors from relatively simple agent interactions. Multi-agent systems research to date is primarily concerned with systems of homogeneous agents, with member agents both physically and behaviorally identical. Systems of heterogeneous agents with differing physical or behavioral characteristics may be able to accomplish tasks more efficiently than homogeneous teams, via cooperation between mutually complementary agent types. In this article, we compare the performance of homogeneous and heterogeneous teams in combined arms situations. Combined arms theory proposes that the application of heterogeneous forces, en masse, can generate effects far greater than outcomes …


Identification Of Return-Oriented Programming Attacks Using Risc-V Instruction Trace Data, Daniel F. Koranek, Scott R. Graham, Brett J. Borghetti, Wayne C. Henry Apr 2022

Identification Of Return-Oriented Programming Attacks Using Risc-V Instruction Trace Data, Daniel F. Koranek, Scott R. Graham, Brett J. Borghetti, Wayne C. Henry

Faculty Publications

An increasing number of embedded systems include dedicated neural hardware. To benefit from this specialized hardware, deep learning techniques to discover malware on embedded systems are needed. This effort evaluated candidate machine learning detection techniques for distinguishing exploited from non-exploited RISC-V program behavior using execution traces. We first developed a dataset of execution traces containing Return Oriented Programming (ROP) exploitation on the RISC-V Instruction Set Architecture (ISA) and then developed several deep learning bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models capable of distinguishing exploited traces from non-exploited traces, each using subsets of features from the execution traces. An objective of this …


Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations, Charles M. Unkrich Mar 2022

Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations, Charles M. Unkrich

Theses and Dissertations

In the pursuit of digital transformation, the Air Force creates digital airmen. Digital airmen are robotic process automations designed to eliminate the repetitive high-volume low-cognitive tasks that absorb so much of our Airmen's time. The automation product results in more time to focus on tasks that machines cannot sufficiently perform data analytics and improving the Air Force's informed decision-making. This research investigates the assessment of potential automation cases to ensure that we choose viable tasks for automation and applies multivariate analysis to determine which factors indicate successful projects. The data is insufficient to provide significant insights.


Team Air Combat Using Model-Based Reinforcement Learning, David A. Mottice Mar 2022

Team Air Combat Using Model-Based Reinforcement Learning, David A. Mottice

Theses and Dissertations

We formulate the first generalized air combat maneuvering problem (ACMP), called the MvN ACMP, wherein M friendly AUCAVs engage against N enemy AUCAVs, developing a Markov decision process (MDP) model to control the team of M Blue AUCAVs. The MDP model leverages a 5-degree-of-freedom aircraft state transition model and formulates a directed energy weapon capability. Instead, a model-based reinforcement learning approach is adopted wherein an approximate policy iteration algorithmic strategy is implemented to attain high-quality approximate policies relative to a high performing benchmark policy. The ADP algorithm utilizes a multi-layer neural network for the value function approximation regression mechanism. One-versus-one …


Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner Mar 2022

Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner

Theses and Dissertations

Artificial Intelligence is the next competitive domain; the first nation to develop human level artificial intelligence will have an impact similar to the development of the atomic bomb. To maintain the security of the United States and her people, the Department of Defense has funded research into the development of artificial intelligence and its applications. This research uses reinforcement learning and deep reinforcement learning methods as proxies for current and future artificial intelligence agents and to assess potential issues in development. Agent performance were compared across two games and one excursion: Cargo Loading, Tower of Hanoi, and Knapsack Problem, respectively. …


Evaluating Semantic Matching Techniques For Technical Documents, Rain F. Dartt Mar 2022

Evaluating Semantic Matching Techniques For Technical Documents, Rain F. Dartt

Theses and Dissertations

Machine learning models that employ NLP techniques have become more widely accessible, making them an attractive solution for text and document classification tasks traditionally accomplished by humans. Two such use cases are matching the specialized experience required for a job to statements in applicant resumes, and finding and labelling clauses in legal contracts The AFMC has an immediate need for solutions to civilian hiring. However, there is currently no truth data to validate against. A similar task is contract understanding for which there is the CUAD, a recently published repository of 510 contracts manually labelled by legal experts. The presented …


Approximate Dynamic Programming For An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Routing Problem With Obstacles And Stochastic Target Arrivals, Kassie M. Gurnell Mar 2022

Approximate Dynamic Programming For An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Routing Problem With Obstacles And Stochastic Target Arrivals, Kassie M. Gurnell

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force is investing in artificial intelligence (AI) to speed analysis in efforts to modernize the use of autonomous unmanned combat aerial vehicles (AUCAVs) in strike coordination and reconnaissance (SCAR) missions. This research examines an AUCAVs ability to execute target strikes and provide reconnaissance in a SCAR mission. An orienteering problem is formulated as anMarkov decision process (MDP) model wherein a single AUCAV must optimize its target route to aid in eliminating time-sensitive targets and collect imagery of requested named areas of interest while evading surface-to-air missile (SAM) battery threats imposed as obstacles. The AUCAV adjusts its …


Obsolescence: Evaluating An Educational Serious Game On Artificial Intelligence Impacts To Military Strategic Goals, Timothy C. Kokotajlo Mar 2022

Obsolescence: Evaluating An Educational Serious Game On Artificial Intelligence Impacts To Military Strategic Goals, Timothy C. Kokotajlo

Theses and Dissertations

Artificial Intelligence (AI) threatens to bring significant disruption to all aspects of military operations. This research develops a Serious Game (SG) and assessment methodology to provide education on the mindsets required for engaging with disruptive AI technologies. The game, Obsolescence, teaches strategic-level concepts recommended to the Department of Defense (DoD) from a compilation of reports on the current and future state of AI and warfighting. The methodology for assessing the educational value of Obsolescence addresses common challenges such as subjective reporting, control groups, population sizes, and measuring abstract or high levels of learning. The games proposed educational value is tested …


Coupled Orbit-Attitude Dynamics And Control Of A Cubesat Equipped With A Robotic Manipulator, Charles M. Carr Mar 2022

Coupled Orbit-Attitude Dynamics And Control Of A Cubesat Equipped With A Robotic Manipulator, Charles M. Carr

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigates the utility and expected performance of a robotic servicing CubeSat. The coupled orbit-attitude dynamics of a 6U CubeSat equipped with a four-link serial manipulator are derived. A proportional-integral-derivative controller is implemented to guide the robot through a series of orbital scenarios, including rendezvous and docking following ejection from a chief spacecraft, repositioning the end effector to a desired location, and tracing a desired path with the end effector. Various techniques involving path planning and inverse differential kinematics are leveraged. Simulation results are presented and performance metrics such as settling time, state errors, control use, and system robustness …


Leveraging Machine Learning For Large Scale Analysis Of Publicly-Available Data For Gnss Interference Events, David K. Stamper Mar 2022

Leveraging Machine Learning For Large Scale Analysis Of Publicly-Available Data For Gnss Interference Events, David K. Stamper

Theses and Dissertations

This research documents architecture and implementation of an enhanced interference detection and classification analysis system, using both a database and storage solution utilizing machine learning algorithms to detect changes in Carrier-to-Noise strength over multiple GNSS sites. The system uses publicly-available government supported receivers to detect interference, and built using FOSS packaged as a programming library through Python. Two algorithms are discussed in terms of enhancing interference detection using both non-machine learning and machine learning approaches. Two algorithms are also discussed which are used for classification of events. In addition, an approach to Large Scale data analytics is demonstrated via a …


Automated Aircraft Visual Inspection With Artificial Data Generation Enabled Deep Learning, Nathan J. Gaul Mar 2022

Automated Aircraft Visual Inspection With Artificial Data Generation Enabled Deep Learning, Nathan J. Gaul

Theses and Dissertations

Aircraft visual inspection, which is essential to daily maintenance of an aircraft, is expensive and time-consuming to perform. Augmenting trained maintenance technicians with automated UAVs to collect and analyze images for aircraft inspection is an active research topic and a potential application of CNNs. Training datasets for niche research topics such as aircraft visual inspection are small and challenging to produce, and the manual process of labeling these datasets often produces subjective annotations. Recently, researchers have produced several successful applications of artificially generated datasets with domain randomization for training CNNs for real-world computer vision problems. The research outlined herein builds …


Application Of Machine Learning Models With Numerical Simulations Of An Experimental Microwave Induced Plasma Gasification Reactor, Owen D. Sedej Mar 2022

Application Of Machine Learning Models With Numerical Simulations Of An Experimental Microwave Induced Plasma Gasification Reactor, Owen D. Sedej

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis aims to contribute to the future development of this technology by providing an in-depth literature review of how this technology physically operates and can be numerically modeled. Additionally, this thesis reviews literature of machine learning models that have been applied to gasification to make accurate predictions regarding the system. Finally, this thesis provides a framework of how to numerically model an experimental plasma gasification reactor in order to inform a variety of machine learning models.


Cognition-Enhanced Machine Learning For Better Predictions With Limited Data, Florian Sense, Ryan Wood, Michael G. Collins, Joshua Fiechter, Aihua W. Wood, Michael Krusmark, Tiffany Jastrzembski, Christopher W. Myers Sep 2021

Cognition-Enhanced Machine Learning For Better Predictions With Limited Data, Florian Sense, Ryan Wood, Michael G. Collins, Joshua Fiechter, Aihua W. Wood, Michael Krusmark, Tiffany Jastrzembski, Christopher W. Myers

Faculty Publications

The fields of machine learning (ML) and cognitive science have developed complementary approaches to computationally modeling human behavior. ML's primary concern is maximizing prediction accuracy; cognitive science's primary concern is explaining the underlying mechanisms. Cross-talk between these disciplines is limited, likely because the tasks and goals usually differ. The domain of e-learning and knowledge acquisition constitutes a fruitful intersection for the two fields’ methodologies to be integrated because accurately tracking learning and forgetting over time and predicting future performance based on learning histories are central to developing effective, personalized learning tools. Here, we show how a state-of-the-art ML model can …


Advancing Proper Dataset Partitioning And Classification Of Visual Search And The Vigilance Decrement Using Eeg Deep Learning Algorithms, Alexander J. Kamrud Sep 2021

Advancing Proper Dataset Partitioning And Classification Of Visual Search And The Vigilance Decrement Using Eeg Deep Learning Algorithms, Alexander J. Kamrud

Theses and Dissertations

Electroencephalography (EEG) classification of visual search and vigilance tasks has vast potential in its benefits. In future human-machine teaming systems, EEG could act as the tool for operator state assessment, enabling AI teammates to know when to assist the operator in these tasks, with the potential to lead to increased safety of operations, better training systems for our operators, and improved operational effectiveness. This research investigates deep learning methods which utilize EEG signals to classify the efficiency of an operator's search and to classify whether an operator is in a decrement during a vigilance type task, and investigates performing these …


Characterizing Convolutional Neural Network Early-Learning And Accelerating Non-Adaptive, First-Order Methods With Localized Lagrangian Restricted Memory Level Bundling, Benjamin O. Morris Sep 2021

Characterizing Convolutional Neural Network Early-Learning And Accelerating Non-Adaptive, First-Order Methods With Localized Lagrangian Restricted Memory Level Bundling, Benjamin O. Morris

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation studies the underlying optimization problem encountered during the early-learning stages of convolutional neural networks and introduces a training algorithm competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods. First, a Design of Experiments method is introduced to systematically measure empirical second-order Lipschitz upper bound and region size estimates for local regions of convolutional neural network loss surfaces experienced during the early-learning stages. This method demonstrates that architecture choices can significantly impact the local loss surfaces traversed during training. Next, a Design of Experiments method is used to study the effects convolutional neural network architecture hyperparameters have on different optimization routines' abilities to …


Year-Independent Prediction Of Food Insecurity Using Classical & Neural Network Machine Learning Methods, Caleb Christiansen, Torrey J. Wagner, Brent Langhals May 2021

Year-Independent Prediction Of Food Insecurity Using Classical & Neural Network Machine Learning Methods, Caleb Christiansen, Torrey J. Wagner, Brent Langhals

Faculty Publications

Current food crisis predictions are developed by the Famine Early Warning System Network, but they fail to classify the majority of food crisis outbreaks with model metrics of recall (0.23), precision (0.42), and f1 (0.30). In this work, using a World Bank dataset, classical and neural network (NN) machine learning algorithms were developed to predict food crises in 21 countries. The best classical logistic regression algorithm achieved a high level of significance (p < 0.001) and precision (0.75) but was deficient in recall (0.20) and f1 (0.32). Of particular interest, the classical algorithm indicated that the vegetation index and the food price index were both positively correlated with food crises. A novel method for performing an iterative multidimensional hyperparameter search is presented, which resulted in significantly improved performance when applied to this dataset. Four iterations were conducted, which resulted in excellent 0.96 for metrics of precision, recall, and f1. Due to this strong performance, the food crisis year was removed from the dataset to prevent immediate extrapolation when used on future data, and the modeling process was repeated. The best “no year” model metrics remained strong, achieving ≥0.92 for recall, precision, and f1 while meeting a 10% f1 overfitting threshold on the test (0.84) and holdout (0.83) datasets. The year-agnostic neural network model represents a novel approach to classify food crises and outperforms current food crisis prediction efforts.