Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Commons^™

Optimizing The Mix Of Games And Their Locations On The Casino Floor, Jason D. Fiege, Anastasia D. Baran

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

We present a mathematical framework and computational approach that aims to optimize the mix and locations of slot machine types and denominations, plus other games to maximize the overall performance of the gaming floor. This problem belongs to a larger class of spatial resource optimization problems, concerned with optimizing the allocation and spatial distribution of finite resources, subject to various constraints. We introduce a powerful multi-objective evolutionary optimization and data-modelling platform, developed by the presenter since 2002, and show how this software can be used for casino floor optimization. We begin by extending a linear formulation of the casino floor …

Stationary And Time-Dependent Optimization Of The Casino Floor Slot Machine Mix, Anastasia D. Baran, Jason D. Fiege

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Modeling and optimizing the performance of a mix of slot machines on a gaming floor can be addressed at various levels of coarseness, and may or may not consider time-dependent trends. For example, a model might consider only time-averaged, aggregate data for all machines of a given type; time-dependent aggregate data; time-averaged data for individual machines; or fully time dependent data for individual machines. Fine-grained, time-dependent data for individual machines offers the most potential for detailed analysis and improvements to the casino floor performance, but also suffers the greatest amount of statistical noise. We present a theoretical analysis of single …

Patrol Scheduling In An Urban Rail Network, Hoong Chuin Lau, Zhi Yuan, Aldy Gunawan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This paper presents the problem of scheduling security teams to patrol a mass rapid transit rail network of a large urban city. The main objective of patrol scheduling is to deploy security teams to stations of the network at varying time periods subject to rostering as well as security-related constraints. We present several mathematical programming models for different variants of this problem. To generate randomized schedules on a regular basis, we propose injecting randomness by varying the start time and break time for each team as well as varying the visit frequency and visit time for each station according to …

A Proactive Sampling Approach To Project Scheduling Under Uncertainty, Pradeep Varakantham, Na Fu, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Uncertainty in activity durations is a key characteristic of many real world scheduling problems in manufacturing, logistics and project management. RCPSP/max with durational uncertainty is a general model that can be used to represent durational uncertainty in a wide variety of scheduling problems where there exist resource constraints. However, computing schedules or execution strategies for RCPSP/max with durational uncertainty is NP-hard and hence we focus on providing approximation methods in this paper. We pro- vide a principled approximation approach based on Sample Average Approximation (SAA) to compute proactive schedules for RCPSP/max with durational uncertainty. We further contribute an extension to …

Achieving Stable And Fair Profit Allocation With Minimum Subsidy In Collaborative Logistics, Lucas Agussurja, Hoong Chuin Lau, Shih-Fen Cheng

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

With the advent of e-commerce, logistics providers are faced with the challenge of handling fluctuating and sparsely distributed demand, which raises their operational costs significantly. As a result, horizontal cooperation are gaining momentum around the world. One of the major impediments, however, is the lack of stable and fair profit sharing mechanism. In this paper, we address this problem using the framework of computational cooperative games. We first present cooperative vehicle routing game as a model for collaborative logistics operations. Using the axioms of Shapley value as the conditions for fairness, we show that a stable, fair and budget balanced …

Online Spatio-Temporal Matching In Stochastic And Dynamic Domains, Meghna Lowalekar, Pradeep Varakantham, Patrick Jaillet

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Spatio-temporal matching of services to customers online is a problem that arises on a large scale in many domains associated with shared transportation (ex: taxis, ride sharing, super shuttles, etc.) and delivery services (ex: food, equipment, clothing, home fuel, etc.). A key characteristic of these problems is that matching of services to customers in one round has a direct impact on the matching of services to customers in the next round. For instance, in the case of taxis, in the second round taxis can only pick up customers closer to the drop off point of the customer from the first …

Automatically Defined Templates For Improved Prediction Of Non-Stationary, Nonlinear Time Series In Genetic Programming, David Moskowitz

CCAC Theses and Dissertations

Soft methods of artificial intelligence are often used in the prediction of non-deterministic time series that cannot be modeled using standard econometric methods. These series, such as occur in finance, often undergo changes to their underlying data generation process resulting in inaccurate approximations or requiring additional human judgment and input in the process, hindering the potential for automated solutions.

Genetic programming (GP) is a class of nature-inspired algorithms that aims to evolve a population of computer programs to solve a target problem. GP has been applied to time series prediction in finance and other domains. However, most GP-based approaches to …

Enabling Carrier Collaboration Via Order Sharing Double Auction: A Singapore Urban Logistics Perspective, Handoko Stephanus Daniel, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

A recent exploratory study on the collaborative urban logistics in Singapore suggests that cost reduction and privacy preservation are two main drivers that would motivate the participation of carriers in consolidating their last mile deliveries. With Singapore's mild restrictions on the vehicle types or the time windows for the last-mile delivery, we believe that with proper technology in place, an Urban Consolidation Center like the Tenjin Joint Distribution System in Fukuoka Japan may be implemented to achieve cost reduction with some degree of privacy preservation. Participating carriers keep their respective private orders and have the option to get their remaining …

A Proposed Model For The Approach To Augmented Reality Deployment In Marketing Communications, Stephen O'Mahony

Dept. of Marketing & International Business Conference Material

In the contemporary landscape, human interaction is characterized by the pervasive mediation of intelligent agents. Owing to advances in computer science and engineering, phenomena once limited to fixed locations are metamorphosing from extraneous entities to implicit components of the everyday. Computing power has simultaneously enhanced and miniaturized to the extent that contemporary consumer devices demonstrate power equivalent to or greater than that of personal computers of recent memory. At the same time, network connectivity has proliferated to ubiquitous levels, reflected in the fact that the amount of inanimate objects connected to the Internet has recently surpassed the human population of …

The Value Of Diagnostic Software And Doctors' Decision Making, Babatunde Ayodele Alaofin

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

The prevalence of medical misdiagnosis has remained high despite the adoption of diagnostic software. This ongoing controversy about the role of technology in mitigating the problem of misdiagnosis centers on the question of whether diagnostic software does reduce the incidence of misdiagnosis if properly relied upon by physicians. The purpose of this quantitative, cross-sectional study based on planned behavior theory was to measure doctors' opinions of diagnostic technology's medical utility. Recruitment e-mails were sent to 3,100 AMA-accredited physicians through their database that yielded a sample of 99 physicians for the study. One-sample t tests and, where appropriate because of non-normal …

Auction With Rolling Horizon For Urban Consolidation Centre, Chen Wang, Stephanus Daniel Handoko, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

A number of cities around the world have adopted urban consolidation centres (UCCs) to address some challenges of their last-mile deliveries. At the UCC, goods are consolidated based on their destinations prior to their deliveries into the city centre. In many examples, the UCC owns a fleet of eco-friendly vehicles to carry out the deliveries. A carrier/shipper who buys the UCC’s service hence no longer needs to enter the city centre in which time-window and vehicle-type restrictions may apply. As a result, it becomes possible to retain the use of large trucks for the economies of scale outside the city …

Near-Optimal Nonmyopic Contact Center Planning Using Dual Decomposition, Akshat Kumar, Sudhanshu Singh, Pranav Gupta, Gyana Parija

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We address the problem of minimizing staffing cost in a contact center subject to service level requirements over multiple weeks. We handle both the capacity planning and agent schedule generation aspect of this problem. Our work incorporates two unique business requirements. First, we develop techniques that can provide near-optimal staffing for 247 contact centers over long term, upto eight weeks, rather than planning myopically on a week-on-week basis. Second, our approach is usable in an online interactive setting in which staffing managers using our system expect high quality plans within a short time period. Results on large real world and …

Strategic Decision Support System Using Heuristic Algorithm For Practical Outlet Zones Allocation To Dealers In A Beer Supply Distribution Network, Michelle Lee Fong Cheong

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We consider a two-echelon beer supply distribution network with the brewer replenishing the dealers and the dealers serving the outlet zones directly, for multiple product types. The allocation of the outlet zones to the dealers will determine the quantity of products the brewer replenishes each dealer, which will in turn impact the total warehousing and transportation costs. The non-linear optimization model formulated is difficult to solve to optimality, and the model itself does not include practical business considerations in the distribution business. A heuristics algorithm is designed and easily implemented using spreadsheets with Visual Basic programming to effectively and efficiently …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

A Dynamic Programming Approach To Achieving An Optimal End State Along A Serial Production Line, Shih-Fen Cheng, Blake E. Nicholson, Marina A. Epelman, Daniel J. Reaume, Robert L. Smith

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In modern production systems, it is critical to perform maintenance, calibration, installation, and upgrade tasks during planned downtime. Otherwise, the systems become unreliable and new product introductions are delayed. For reasons of safety, testing, and access, task performance often requires the vicinity of impacted equipment to be left in a specific “end state” when production halts. Therefore, planning the shutdown of a production system to balance production goals against enabling non-production tasks yields a challenging optimization problem. In this paper, we propose a mathematical formulation of this problem and a dynamic programming approach that efficiently finds optimal shutdown policies for …

An Agent-Based Simulation Approach To Experience Management In Theme Parks, Shih-Fen Cheng, Larry Junjie Lin, Jiali Du, Hoong Chuin Lau, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this paper, we illustrate how massive agent-based simulation can be used to investigate an exciting new application domain of experience management in theme parks, which covers topics like congestion control, incentive design, and revenue management. Since all visitors are heterogeneous and self-interested, we argue that a high-quality agent-based simulation is necessary for studying various problems related to experience management. As in most agent-base simulations, a sound understanding of micro-level behaviors is essential to construct high-quality models. To achieve this, we designed and conducted a first-of-its-kind real-world experiment that helps us understand how typical visitors behave in a theme-park environment. …

Genetic Algorithm Based Model In Text Steganography, Christine K. Mulunda, Peter W. Wagacha, Alfayo O. Adede

The African Journal of Information Systems

Steganography is an ancient art. It is used for security in open systems. It focuses on hiding secret messages inside a cover medium. The most important property of a cover medium is the amount of data that can be stored inside it without changing its noticeable properties. There are many sophisticated techniques with which to hide, analyze, and recover that hidden information. This paper discusses an exploration in the use of Genetic Algorithm operators on the cover medium. We worked with text as the cover medium with the aim of increasing robustness and capacity of hidden data. Elitism is used …

A Multi-Objective Memetic Algorithm For Vehicle Resource Allocation In Sustainable Transportation Planning, Hoong Chuin Lau, Lucas Agussurja, Shih-Fen Cheng, Pang Jin Tan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Sustainable supply chain management has been an increasingly important topic of research in recent years. At the strategic level, there are computational models which study supply and distribution networks with environmental considerations. At the operational level, there are, for example, routing and scheduling models which are constrained by carbon emissions. Our paper explores work in tactical planning with regards to vehicle resource allocation from distribution centers to customer locations in a multi-echelon logistics network. We formulate the bi-objective optimization problem exactly and design a memetic algorithm to efficiently derive an approximate Pareto front. We illustrate the applicability of our approach …

Interacting Knapsack Problem In Designing Resource Bundles, Truong Huy D. Nguyen, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Hoong Chuin Lau, Shih-Fen Cheng

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In many real-life businesses, the service provider/seller keeps a log of the visitors’ behavior as a way to assess the efficiency of the current business/operation model and find room for improvement. For example, by tracking when visitors entering attractions in a theme park, theme park owners can detect when and where congestion may occur, thus having contingency plans to reroute the visitors accordingly. Similarly, a Cable TV service provider can track channel switching events at each household to identify uninteresting channels. Subsequently, the repertoire of channels up for subscription can evolve over time to better serve the entertainment demand of …

“Network-Theoretic” Queuing Delay Estimation In Theme Park Attractions, Ajay Aravamudhan, Archan Misra, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Queuing is a common phenomenon in theme parks which negatively affects visitor experience and revenue yields. There is thus a need for park operators to infer the real queuing delays without expensive investment in human effort or complex tracking infrastructure. In this paper, we depart from the classical queuing theory approach and provide a data-driven and online approach for estimating the time-varying queuing delays experienced at different attractions in a theme park. This work is novel in that it relies purely on empirical observations of the entry time of individual visitors at different attractions, and also accommodates the reality that …

Improving Patient Length-Of-Stay In Emergency Department Through Dynamic Resource Allocation Policies, Kar Way Tan, Wei Hao Tan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this work, we consider the problem of allocating doctors in the ambulatory area of a hospital's emergency department (ED) based on a set of policies. Traditional staffing methods are static, hence do not react well to surges in patient demands. We study strategies that intelligently adjust the number of doctors based on current and historical information about the patient arrival. Our main contribution is our proposed data-driven online approach that performs adaptive allocation by utilizing historical as well as current arrivals by running symbiotic simulation in real-time. We build a simulation prototype that models ED process that is close …

Implementation Of Slowly Changing Dimension To Data Warehouse To Manage Marketing Campaigns In Banks, Lihui Wang, Junyu Choy, Michelle L. F. Cheong

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Management of updating and recording campaign leads in data warehouse of any banking environment is complex especially with multiple campaigns are active simultaneously. As a way to avoid overly contacting customers for sales-based marketing contacts, the concept of Recency Frame is introduced to “lock” the customers who are targeted in Sales-based campaign for a specified time period. During this Recency Frame, the customer cannot be targeted by other Sales-based campaign under the same channel. This approach increased the difficulties of managing the customers’ data with proper data updating and storing and procedures have to be placed and made sufficiently robust …

Tesla: An Energy-Saving Agent That Leverages Schedule Flexibility, Jun Young Kwak, Pradeep Varakantham, Rajiv Maheswaran, Burcin Becerik-Gerber, Milind Tambe

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This innovative application paper presents TESLA, an agent-based application for optimizing the energy use in commercial buildings. TESLA’s key insight is that adding flexibility to event/meeting schedules can lead to significant energy savings. TESLA provides three key contributions: (i) three online scheduling algorithms that consider flexibility of people’s preferences for energyefficient scheduling of incrementally/dynamically arriving meetings and events; (ii) an algorithm to effectively identify key meetings that lead to significant energy savings by adjusting their flexibility; and (iii) surveys of real users that indicate that TESLA’s assumptions exist in practice. TESLA was evaluated on data of over 110,000 meetings held …