Computer Sciences Commons^™

Hawthorne Effect: An Explanation Based On Decision Theory, Sofia Holguin, Vladik Kreinovich, Nguyen Hoang Phuong

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

It is known that people feel better (and even work better) if someone pays attention to them; this is known as the Hawthorne effect. At first glance, it sounds counter-intuitive: this attention does not bring you any material benefits, so why would you feel better? If you are sick and someone gives you medicine, this will make you feel better, but if someone just pays attention, why does that make you feel better? In this paper, we use the general ideas of decision theory to explain this seemingly counterintuitive phenomenon.

Why Should Exactly 1/4 Be Returned To The Original Owner: An Economic Explanation Of An Ancient Recommendation, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

What if someone bought a property in good faith, not realizing that this property was unjustly confiscated from the previous owner? In such situations, if the new owner decided to sell this property, Talmud recommended that a fair way is to return 1/4 of the selling price to the original owner. However, it does not provide any explanation of why exactly 1/4 -- and not any other portion -- is to be returned. In this paper, we provide an economic explanation for this recommendation, an explanation that fits well with other ancient recommendations about debts.

Why Convex Combination Is An Effective Crossover Operation In Continuous Optimization: A Theoretical Explanation, Kelly Cohen, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

When evolutionary computation techniques are used to solve continuous optimization problems, usually, convex combination is used as a crossover operation. Empirically, this crossover operation works well, but this success is, from the foundational viewpoint, a challenge: why this crossover operation works well is not clear. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical success.

Estimating Skewness And Higher Central Moments Of An Interval-Valued Fuzzy Set, Juan Carlos Figueroa-Garcia, Martine Ceberio, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

A known relation between membership functions and probability density functions allows us to naturally extend statistical characteristics like central moments to the fuzzy case. In case of interval-valued fuzzy sets, we have several possible membership functions consistent with our knowledge. For different membership functions, in general, we have different values of the central moments. It is therefore desirable to compute, in the interval-valued fuzzy case, the range of possible values for each such moment. In this paper, we provide efficient algorithms for this computation.

From Historically First "Unary" Numbers, Through Egyptian Fractions, Roman Numerals, Leibniz's Binary Numbers And Kepler's Fractions To Modern Ideas Such As Calkin-Wilf Tree: A Unified Approach To Representing Natural Numbers And Fractions, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, Christian Servin

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In elementary mathematics classes, students are often overwhelmed by different representations of numbers and corresponding operations: usual fractions, decimal representations, binary numbers, etc. What often helps is when students learn the history of these representations, see the limitations of seemingly reasonable representations like Roman numerals, and how other representations overcame these limitations. Still, history was developed somewhat randomly, so the historical sequence is still somewhat chaotic. We believe that providing a unified approach for all these representations would help describe their sequence in a more logical way and thus, help the students even more.

In our analysis, we explore the …

Fair Bankruptcy Solutions Under Interval Uncertainty, Uyen Pham, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

If the overall amount of the company's assets is smaller than its total debts, then a fair solution is to give, to each creditor, the amount proportional to the corresponding debt, e.g., 10 center for each dollar or 50 cents for each dollar. But what if the debt amounts are not known exactly, and for some creditors, we only know the lower and upper bounds on the actual debt amount? What division will be fair in such a situation? In this paper, we show that the only fair solution is to make payments proportional to an appropriate convex combination of …

How Probable Is A Revolution? A Natural Relu-Like Formula That Fits The Historical Data, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In his recent book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order", Ray Dalio considered many historical crisis situations, and came up with several data points showing how the probability of a revolution or a civil war depends on the number of economic red flags. In this paper, we provide a simple empirical formula that is consistent with these data points.

Shape Of An Egg: Towards A Natural Simple Universal Formula, Sofia Holguin, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Eggs of different bird species have different shapes. There exists formulas for describing the usual egg shapes -- e.g., the shapes of chicken eggs. However, some egg shapes are more complex. A recent paper proposed a general formula for describing all possible egg shapes; however this formula is purely empirical, it does not have any theoretical foundations. In this paper, we use the theoretical analysis of the problem to provide an alternative -- theoretically justified -- general formula. Interestingly, the new general formula is easier to compute than the previously proposed one.

Freedom Of Will, Non-Uniqueness Of Cauchy Problem, Fractal Processes, Renormalization, Phase Transitions, And Stealth Aircraft, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

We all know that we can make different decisions, decisions that change -- at least locally -- the state of the world. This is what is known as freedom of will. On the other hand, according to physics, the future state of the world is uniquely pre-determined by its current state, so there is no room for freedom of will. How can we resolve this contradiction? In this paper, we analyze this problem, and we show that many physical phenomena can help resolve this contradiction: fractal character of equations, renormalization, phase transitions, etc. Usually, these phenomena are viewed as somewhat …

How To Estimate The Present Serviceability Rating Of A Road Segment: Explanation Of An Empirical Formula, Edgar Daniel Rodriguez Velasquez, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

An accurate estimation of the road quality requires a lot of expertise, and there is not enough experts to provide such estimates for all the road segments. It is therefore desirable to estimate this quality based on easy-to-estimate and easy-to-measure characteristics. Recently, an empirical formula was proposed for such an estimate. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical formula.

Education In The Era Of Google, Wikipedia, And Deep Learning: Are We Humans Still Needed And If Yes For What?, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

One of the main purposes of education is to teach skills needed in future life and future jobs. What is important and what is useful changes with time. Before the industrial revolution, routine mechanical work was an important part of human activity – now machines can do it (and do it better). Before printing, copying was an important activity – now copy machines do it. Before computers, humans were needed for computing – now computer do it better. With Wikipedia and Google, there is not much need for scholars being erudite. Even extracting dependencies from data – one of the …

Economy-Related Emotional Attitudes Towards Other People: How Can We Explain Them?, Christopher Reyes, Vladik Kreinovich, Chon Van Le

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Research has shown that to properly understand people's economic behavior, it is important to take into account their emotional attitudes towards each other. Behavioral economics shows that different attitudes results in different economy-related behavior. A natural question is: where do these emotional attitudes come from? We show that, in principle, such emotions can be explained by people's objective functions. Specifically, we show it on the example of a person whose main objective is to increase his/her country's GDP: in this case, the corresponding optimization problem leads exactly to natural emotions towards people who contribute a lot or a little towards …

What About Generic "And"- And "Or"-Operations: From Levels Of Certainty (Philosophical-Physical-Mathematical) To A Natural Interpretation Of Quantum-Like Negative Degrees Of Certainty, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Fuzzy techniques -- techniques designed to convert imprecise human knowledge into precise computer-understandable terms -- have many successful applications. Traditional applications of fuzzy techniques use only important general features of human reasoning and, to make an implement more efficient, ignore subtle details, details which are not important for the corresponding application. But from the more fundamental viewpoint, it is desirable to understand, in all the detail, how people actually reason. In this paper, we use general ideas of fuzzy approach to answer this question. Interestingly -- and somewhat unexpectedly -- the resulting analysis leads to a natural explanation of existence …

How Can The Opposite To A True Theory Be Also True? A Similar Talmudic Discussion Helps Make This Famous Bohr's Statement Logically Consistent, Miroslav Svitek, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In his famous saying, the Nobelist physicist Niels Bohr claimed that the sign of a deep theory is that while this theory is true, its opposite is also true. While this statement makes heuristic sense, it does not seem to make sense from a logical viewpoint, since, in logic, the opposite to true is false. In this paper, we show how a similar Talmudic discussion can help come up with an interpretation in which Bohr's statement becomes logically consistent.

In The Absence Of Information, The Only Reasonable Negotiation Scheme Is Offering A Certain Percentage Of The Original Request: A Proof, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In the case of complete information, a reasonable solution to a negotiation process is Nash's bargaining solution, in which we maximize the product of all agents' utility gains. This is the only solution that does not depend on the order in which we list the agents, and does not change if we use a different scale for describing each agent's utility. In this paper, we apply similar invariance criteria to a situation when practically all information is absent, and all we know is the smallest and largest possible gains. We show that in this situation, the only invariant negotiation strategy …

Why Some Theoretically Possible Representations Of Natural Numbers Were Historically Used And Some Were Not: An Algorithm-Based Explanation, Christian Servin, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Historically, people have used many ways to represent natural numbers: from the original "unary" arithmetic, where each number is represented as a sequence of, e.g., cuts (4 is IIII) to modern decimal and binary systems. However, with all this variety, some seemingly reasonable ways of representing natural numbers were never used. For example, it may seem reasonable to represent numbers as products -- e.g., as products of prime numbers -- such a representation was never used in history. So why some theoretically possible representations of natural numbers were historically used and some were not? In this paper, we propose an …

Covid Synergy: A Machine Learning Approach Uncovering Potential Treatment Combinations For Sars-Cov-2, Jason Eden Sanchez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

For more than two years, the COVID-19 pandemic has upended the lives of billions of individualsworldwide leading to disruptions in healthcare, the economy and society at large. As the pandemic enters its third year, the human impact cannot be overstated and the need to develop effective pharmaceuticals remains. Though there currently exits FDA-approved medications for COVID-19, the emergence of novel variants, such as Omicron, highlights the importance of discovering new therapies which will continue to be effective regardless of the pandemicâ??s progression. Because discovering new medications is a costly and timeintensive endeavor, my approach entails drug repurposing to test medications …

Game-Theoretic Deception Modeling For Distracting Network Adversarie, Mohammad Sujan Miah

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In this day and age, adversaries in the cybersecurity space have become alarmingly capable of identifying network vulnerabilities and work out various targets to attack where deception is becoming an increasingly crucial technique for the defenders to delay these attacks. For securing computer networks, the defenders use various deceptive decoy objects to detect, confuse, and distract attackers. By trapping the attackers, these decoys gather information, waste their time and resources, and potentially prevent future attacks. However, we have to consider that an attacker with the help of smart techniques may detect the decoys and avoid them. One of the well-known …

A Machine Learning Approach To Stochastic Optimal Control, Pablo Ever Avalos

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Merton's portfolio optimization problem is a well-renowned problem in financial mathematics which seeks to optimize the investment decision for an investor. In the simplest situation, the market consists of a risk-less asset (i.e. a bond) that pays back a relatively low interest rate, and a risky asset (i.e. a stock) that follows a geometric Brownian motion. The optimal allocation strategy of the investor's wealth is found by optimizing the expected utility along the stochastic evolution of the market. This thesis focuses on several different applications of this optimization problem. We look at pre-constructed analytical solutions and showcase the results. We …

Material Synthesis And Machine Learning For Additive Manufacturing, Jaime Eduardo Regis

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The goal of this research was to address three key challenges in additive manufacturing (AM), the need for feedstock material, minimal end-use fabrication from lack of functionality in commercially available materials, and the need for qualification and property prediction in printed structures. The near ultraviolet-light assisted green reduction of graphene oxide through L-ascorbic acid was studied with to address the issue of low part strength in additively manufactured parts by providing a functional filler that can strengthen the polymer matrix. The synthesis of self-healing epoxy vitrimers was done to adapt high strength materials with recyclable properties for compatibility with AM …

Why Rectified Linear Unit Is Efficient In Machine Learning: One More Explanation, Barnabas Bede, Vladik Kreinovich, Uyen Pham

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In many applications, in particular, in econometric application, deep learning techniques are very effective. In this paper, we provide a new explanation for why rectified linear units -- the main units of deep learning -- are so effective. This explanation is similar to the usual explanation of why Gaussian (normal) distributions are ubiquitous -- namely, it is based on an appropriate limit theorem.

Game-Theoretic Approach Explains -- On The Qualitative Level -- The Antigenic Map Of Covid-19 Variants, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, Nguyen Hoang Phuong

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

To effectively defend the population against future variants of Covid-19, it is important to be able to predict how it will evolve. For this purpose, it is necessary to understand the logic behind its evolution so far. At first glance, this evolution looks random and thus, difficult to predict. However, we show that already a simple game-theoretic model can actually explain -- on the qualitative level -- how this virus mutated so far.

Why Constraint Interval Arithmetic Works Well: A Theorem Explains Empirical Success, Barnabas Bede, Marina Tuyako Mizukoshi, Weldon Lodwick, Martine Ceberio, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Often, we are interested in a quantity that is difficult or impossible to measure directly, e.g., tomorrow's temperature. To estimate this quantity, we measure auxiliary easier-to-measure quantities that are related to the desired ones by a known dependence, and use the known relation to estimate the desired quantity. Measurements are never absolutely accurate, there is always a measurement error, i.e., a non-zero difference between the measurement result and the actual (unknown) value of the corresponding quantity. In many practical situations, the only information that we have about each measurement error is the bound on its absolute value. In such situations, …

When Is Deep Learning Better And When Is Shallow Learning Better: Qualitative Analysis, Salvador Robles Herrera, Martine Ceberio, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In many practical situations, deep neural networks work better than the traditional "shallow" ones, however, in some cases, the shallow neural networks lead to better results. At present, deciding which type of neural networks will work better is mostly done by trial and error. It is therefore desirable to come up with some criterion of when deep learning is better and when shallow is better. In this paper, we argue that this depends on whether the corresponding situation has natural symmetries: if it does, we expect deep learning to work better, otherwise we expect shallow learning to be more effective. …

Why Deep Neural Networks: Yet Another Explanation, Ricardo Lozano, Ivan Montoya Sanchez, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

One of the main motivations for using artificial neural networks was to speed up computations. From this viewpoint, the ideal configuration is when we have a single nonlinear layer: this configuration is computationally the fastest, and it already has the desired universal approximation property. However, the last decades have shown that for many problems, deep neural networks, with several nonlinear layers, are much more effective. How can we explain this puzzling fact? In this paper, we provide a possible explanation for this phenomena: that the universal approximation property is only true in the idealized setting, when we assume that all …

Why Menzerath's Law?, Julio Urenda, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In linguistics, there is a dependence between the length of the sentence and the average length of the word: the longer the sentence, the shorter the words. The corresponding empirical formula is known as the Menzerath's Law. A similar dependence can be observed in many other application areas, e.g., in the analysis of genomes. The fact that the same dependence is observed in many different application domains seems to indicate there should be a general domain-independent explanation for this law. In this paper, we show that indeed, this law can be derived from natural invariance requirements.

How To Select A Representative Sample For A Family Of Functions?, Leobardo Valera, Martine Ceberio, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Predictions are rarely absolutely accurate. Often, the future values of quantities of interest depend on some parameters that we only know with some uncertainty. To make sure that all possible solutions satisfy desired constraints, it is necessary to generate a representative finite sample, so that if the constraints are satisfied for all the functions from this sample, then we can be sure that these constraints will be satisfied for the actual future behavior as well. At present, such a sample is selected based by Monte-Carlo simulations, but, as we show, such selection may underestimate the danger of violating the constraints. …

Why Hate: Analysis Based On Decision Theory, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

At first glance, from the general decision-theory viewpoint, hate (and other negative feelings towards each other) makes no sense, since they decrease the utility (i.e., crudely speaking, level of happiness) of the person who experiences these feelings. Our detailed analysis shows that there are situations when such negative feelings make perfect sense: namely, when you have a large group of people almost all of whom are objectively unhappy. In such situations -- e.g., on the battlefield -- negative feelings help keep their spirits high in spite of the harsh situation. This explanation leads to recommendations on how to decrease the …

How To Solve The Apportionment Paradox, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

It is known that often, after it is proven that a new statement is equivalent to the original definition, this new statement becomes the accepted new definition of the same notion. In this paper, we provide a natural explanation for this empirical phenomenon.

How To Solve The Apportionment Paradox, Christopher Reyes, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In the ideal world, the number of seats that each region or each community gets in a representative body should be exactly proportional to the population of this region or community. However, since the number of seats allocated to each region or community is whole, we cannot maintain the exact proportionality. Not only this leads to a somewhat unfair situation, when residents of one region get more votes per person than residents of another one, it also leads to paradoxes -- e.g., sometimes a region that gained the largest number of people loses a number of seats. To avoid this …