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Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in The Sun and the Solar System
Mining Time Series Shapelets And Association Rules For Solar Flare Prediction, Drew Watson
Mining Time Series Shapelets And Association Rules For Solar Flare Prediction, Drew Watson
All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present
Solar flares are the largest explosions in the solar system; they are caused by changes in the Sun’s magnetic field. Strong solar flares can disrupt power systems, damage satellites, and interfere with radio communication, so improving flare prediction is important. This thesis develops a way to predict severe solar flares while also helping researchers understand why those predictions are made. The approach looks for short patterns in solar magnetic field data that are linked to future flare activity. It then studies how these patterns appear together and in what order they happen over time. By doing this, the research not …
Global Ionospheric F Region Parameters From Gnss-Pod Limb Measurements: Evaluations And Comparisons With Two Empirical Models - Iri-2020 And Nequick-2, Nimalan Swarnalingam, Dong L. Wu, Dieter Bilitza, Daniel J. Emmons, Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salinas, Artem Smirnov, Yenca Migoya-Oru
Global Ionospheric F Region Parameters From Gnss-Pod Limb Measurements: Evaluations And Comparisons With Two Empirical Models - Iri-2020 And Nequick-2, Nimalan Swarnalingam, Dong L. Wu, Dieter Bilitza, Daniel J. Emmons, Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salinas, Artem Smirnov, Yenca Migoya-Oru
Faculty Publications
An optimal estimation (OE) technique has recently been developed for F region electron density (Ne) using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) limb sounding on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites (COSMIC-2, Spire, and FengYun-3). This method provides unprecedented spatiotemporal sampling for global monthly Ne climatology within 100–500 km in 2 hr intervals. The global dataset, collected during mid to moderately high solar activity, is compared with leading models: IRI-2020 and NeQuick-2. Diurnal variations in summer, winter, and equinoctial months are examined for the F2-layer peak, as well as the topside and bottomside of the F region. The observed and modeled NmF2 …
Implications Of Magnetic Evolution On Coronal Loop Thermal Variation Prior To Solar Flares, Kara L. Kniezewski
Implications Of Magnetic Evolution On Coronal Loop Thermal Variation Prior To Solar Flares, Kara L. Kniezewski
Theses and Dissertations
Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, which occur due to a rapid destabilization and reconnection of the magnetic field. While flares are a magnetic phenomena, very little attention has been paid to thermal conditions in the corona prior to flare onset. This study serves as a follow-on to Kniezewski et al., 2024, where the EUV emission from coronal loops was observed to vary substantially and without any coherence between channels before 53 off-limb flares. These variations suggest multiple mechanisms within the coronal magnetic field are responsible for heating fluctuations. Here, the 3D magnetic field is modeled using a …
Probabilistic Short Term Solar Driver Forecasting With Neural Network Ensembles, Joshua Daniell
Probabilistic Short Term Solar Driver Forecasting With Neural Network Ensembles, Joshua Daniell
Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)
Commonly utilized space weather indices and proxies drive predictive models for thermosphere density, directly impacting objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) by influencing atmospheric drag forces. A set of solar proxies and indices (drivers), F10.7, S10.7, M10.7, and Y10.7, are created from a mixture of ground based radio observations and satellite instrument data. These solar drivers represent heating in various levels of the thermosphere and are used as inputs by the JB2008 empirical thermosphere density model. The United States Air Force (USAF) operational High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) relies on JB2008, and …
Mosaic: A Satellite Constellation To Enable Groundbreaking Mars Climate System Science And Prepare For Human Exploration, Robert J. Lillis, David Mitchell, Luca Montabone, Nicholas Heavens, Tanya Harrison, Cassie Stuurman, Et. Al.
Mosaic: A Satellite Constellation To Enable Groundbreaking Mars Climate System Science And Prepare For Human Exploration, Robert J. Lillis, David Mitchell, Luca Montabone, Nicholas Heavens, Tanya Harrison, Cassie Stuurman, Et. Al.
Publications
The Martian climate system has been revealed to rival the complexity of Earth's. Over the last 20 yr, a fragmented and incomplete picture has emerged of its structure and variability; we remain largely ignorant of many of the physical processes driving matter and energy flow between and within Mars' diverse climate domains. Mars Orbiters for Surface, Atmosphere, and Ionosphere Connections (MOSAIC) is a constellation of ten platforms focused on understanding these climate connections, with orbits and instruments tailored to observe the Martian climate system from three complementary perspectives. First, low-circular near-polar Sun-synchronous orbits (a large mothership and three smallsats spaced …
Studying The Conditions For Magnetic Reconnection In Solar Flares With And Without Precursor Flares, Seth H. Garland
Studying The Conditions For Magnetic Reconnection In Solar Flares With And Without Precursor Flares, Seth H. Garland
Theses and Dissertations
Forecasting of solar flares remains a challenge due to the limited understanding of the triggering mechanisms associated with magnetic reconnection, the primary physical phenomenon connected to these events. Consequently, methods continue to rely on the climatology of solar flare events as opposed to the underlying physics principles. Models of magnetic reconnection in the solar atmosphere places the null point of the reconnection within the corona. Though as of now the coronal magnetic field cannot be directly measured, the field is tied to the photospheric magnetic field, which can be. This study utilized data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and …
Astrodynamics Of The Next Generation Space Weather Prediction Mission, Mark Herring
Astrodynamics Of The Next Generation Space Weather Prediction Mission, Mark Herring
Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses
Accurate prediction of the solar wind properties, interplanetary magnetic field direction and various space weather phenomena becomes ever more important as our dependence on Earth orbiting spacecraft increases. Different solar wind drivers can lead both to enhancements and losses of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belts, thus posing a major risk to satellites. To further our understanding of the Sun’s impact on the near Earth space environment, as well as to provide predictive capabilities, a mission placing monitoring satellites in key orbits in the inner Solar System is being proposed. As part of that effort, the possibility of using …
Assessing Predictive Ability Of Three Auroral Precipitation Models Using Dmsp Energy Flux, Cory T. Lane, Ariel O. Acebal, Yihua Zheng
Assessing Predictive Ability Of Three Auroral Precipitation Models Using Dmsp Energy Flux, Cory T. Lane, Ariel O. Acebal, Yihua Zheng
Faculty Publications
Our study statistically compares the total energy flux outputs of Newell et al.'s (2010a) oval variation, assessment, tracking, intensity, and online nowcasting (OVATION) Prime model, Hardy et al.'s (1991) Kp‐based model, and a coupled Space Weather Modeling Framework ring current model to energy flux data obtained from 2198 Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite passes in the Northern Hemisphere. Our DMSP data set includes 28 days grouped into continuous 3 and 4 day periods between 2000 and 2008 and encompasses magnetic local times (MLTs) between 04:00 and 21:00. We obtain the most equatorward magnetic latitude coordinate, where a DMSP satellite …
Ensemble Forecasting Of Coronal Mass Ejections Using The Wsa-Enlil With Coned Model, D. Emmons, Ariel O. Acebal, A. Pulkkinen, A. Taktakishvili, Peter Macneice, D. Odstrcil
Ensemble Forecasting Of Coronal Mass Ejections Using The Wsa-Enlil With Coned Model, D. Emmons, Ariel O. Acebal, A. Pulkkinen, A. Taktakishvili, Peter Macneice, D. Odstrcil
Faculty Publications
The combination of the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA‐ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA‐ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the …